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  • ronrag: 
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  He is correct on the fact that the price of OIL and other commodities is no longer a matter of supply and demand but rather a matter of price driven up or down by speculation. A regulatory solution to the speculation issue is needed now... we need supply and demand, that is , the actual amount of the commodity vs what is required globally to drive the price. this is the only way we will get a stable commodity value which is what the global market requires for its stability across all markets.

  Oct 24 08:28 PM | Link | Reply
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  • doubleguns: 
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  "there’s nowhere for gold to go"
  
  Fine, but we know where the dollar is going.
  
  I will keep my gold.

  Oct 24 09:56 PM | Link | Reply
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  • Jeff Nielson: 
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  You really have to wonder how this guy EVER received a Nobel Prize in economics. A box of Cracker-Jacks, perhaps?
  
  First, of all, the NOMINAL price of commodities must go higher due to the unprecedented money-printing taking place. Secondly, our population (and the population of "middle-class consumers") is increasing much more rapidly than the SUPPLY of virtually any/every commodity.
  
  Finally, we've already harvested all of the easily accessible resources, meaning it will get ever more difficult to continue to increase the production of commodities.
  
  I wonder what "fundamentals" Roubini is talking about?

  Oct 24 11:23 PM | Link | Reply
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  • nevket240: 
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  ("without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go").
  So, where are we???
  A 'toilet paper' funded, low volume, shyster organised market ramp that hides market fundamentals is surely a reason to hold some Gold.
  NR should take a break from BigWig parties and talk to some of the 20% under/unemployed, that may wake him up.
  regards.

  Oct 25 01:38 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Alexander_M: 
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  Because the Government has properly addressed so many other problems...? I wish I had some of the stuff you were smoking.
  
  On Oct 24 08:28 PM ronrag wrote:
  > A regulatory solution to the speculation issue is needed now...

  Oct 25 02:04 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Michael Clark: 
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  In a global depression, commodities are NOT going up. Gold will go up in a global depression -- as Nouriel says -- because it is more than just a commodity. The whole world is badly OVERBUILT. The housing bubble is global. Credit default is coming on a global scale. Who is going to need to buy copper and iron ore when the economy breaks down? Oil? He's right: not a product of supply and demand; oil price appreciation is the product of a declining dollar

  Oct 25 03:18 AM | Link | Reply
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  • bbro: 
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  Roubini has 5 more days for his prediction of S&P 500 at 600 in the
  month of October....you can throw Rosenberg in with the same prediction.

  Oct 25 04:34 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Troy Ounce: 
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  Roubini must hold tight to his paper claims.
  
  I will hold tight to my gold, thank you.

  Oct 25 04:51 AM | Link | Reply
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  • The Geoffster: 
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  What does he believe in? The dollar?

  Oct 25 09:48 AM | Link | Reply
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  • DW Reid: 
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  Commodities weren't traded by speculators much until the last 20 years. We have no playbook for what's going on now (extreme money printing, extreme commodity speculation). Roubini (who didn't win the Nobel, incidentally) thinks extreme commodity speculation is happening because of 2 things: 1) developing countries (China, India) are growing a lot faster than before because we've transferred production there and are smart enough to stockpile, and 2) because speculators believe it is the only trustworthy place to make a killing (companies lie, governments lie, people lie, the price of commodities are printed daily and monthly). In the short run (1-2 years) I would be cautious about commodities -- the government has proven it is willing to change the rules when it suits their political purposes. You may find yourself in DXO (for example), the rules change, and suddenly the instrument liquidates (think UNG, USO, DBC, etc.). So where to put money? Clearly the largest funds are doing daily or weekly trades (SPY, IWM, XLF, EEM) or global macro trades (currencies, China, etc.) waiting for either the next explosion up (because the dollar collapses) or the next overnight drop down (ruining their year and careers, possibly), because the Fed changes its mind and says it will tighten sooner rather than later. Follow the government, as their policy changes will control the markets for commodities. My hunch is oil will take a run at $90, then politicians will form committees and give speeches, then it will take a run at $100 and Obama will give speeches, then it will break $100 and congress will begin submitting new bills to alter speculation and as it approaches $120 (next summer) new laws will be passed suddenly (before 2010 elections) and the price will be knocked back down to $75 where it will stay for years.

  Oct 25 09:57 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Archman Inv...: 
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  Jeff:
  Agreed. I would change one of your sentences from "our population" to "the worlds new middle class population".
  I would forget about the US for quite awhile. We will not matter anymore. Peter Schiff was right (about one thing): The US is no longer the engine that drives world growth but the caboose. Things take time to occur and investors must keep that in mind. Though it is hard of course for the average American who has not taken the red pill and is still plugged into the Matrix of lies the government and media put forth.
  
  
  On Oct 24 11:23 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:
  
  > You really have to wonder how this guy EVER received a Nobel Prize
  > in economics. A box of Cracker-Jacks, perhaps?
  >
  > First, of all, the NOMINAL price of commodities must go higher due
  > to the unprecedented money-printing taking place. Secondly, our population
  > (and the population of "middle-class consumers") is increasing much
  > more rapidly than the SUPPLY of virtually any/every commodity.<br/>
  >
  > Finally, we've already harvested all of the easily accessible resources,
  > meaning it will get ever more difficult to continue to increase the
  > production of commodities.
  >
  > I wonder what "fundamentals" Roubini is talking about?

  Oct 25 10:42 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Plant the s...: 
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  Jeff,
  Roubini has never recieved the Nobel Prize.
  BC

  Oct 26 02:31 PM | Link | Reply