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  • JasonGordon: 
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  • Swing High
  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that will not happen.

  Nov 02 09:29 AM | Link | Reply
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  • MarketGuy: 
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  ...and needs a 42% loss to be fair valued.

  Nov 02 09:33 AM | Link | Reply
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  • SA Editor E...: 
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  That's very bold of you ;-).
  
  
  On Nov 02 09:29 AM JasonGordon wrote:
  
  > I'm going to go out on a limb and say that will not happen.

  Nov 02 09:36 AM | Link | Reply
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  • enigmaman: 
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  Last time we had a lost earnings decade was during the Great Depression, Im just saying

  Nov 02 09:37 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Graham and ...: 
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  • R.W. Wentworth & Co.
  Which is why we had a lost decade. Think of how overvalued the market was at the BEGINNING.
  
  But most likely, another lost decade. "Two for one," this time. And as Enigmaman rightly pointed out, "the last time" was the 1930s.
  
  
  On Nov 02 09:33 AM MarketGuy wrote:
  
  > ...and needs a 42% loss to be fair valued.

  Nov 02 09:48 AM | Link | Reply
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  • somecatchyp...: 
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  Does this factor in inflation?
  
  Hypothetically, if we had a 42% gain, would this represent a nominal or inflation adjusted break even point?

  Nov 02 09:49 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Vox Rationalis: 
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  "With 42 trading days to year-end, S&P 500 needs a 42% gain to break even for the decade."
  
  No. Counting dividends, the S&P needs a gain of about 19% to break even since December 31, 1999. Why do investment professionals routinely neglect to include dividends in this kind of calculation?

  Nov 02 09:54 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Graham and ...: 
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  • R.W. Wentworth & Co.
  The "lost decade" was foreshadowed early in 2000 by the Las Vegas "wedding" show "Who Wants to Marry a Multimillionaire.?"
  
  Just like the wedding of Tiny Tim (Tiptoe Through the Tulips) in December 1969 foreshadowed the anemic 1970s. (Dutch Tulip bulbs anyone)?
  
  And a similar Las Vegas :"celebrity wedding in say, 2030, will signal much the same.

  Nov 02 10:11 AM | Link | Reply
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  • Vox Rationalis: 
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  Some quick math shows that the S&P 500 would need to be about 53.5% higher to match YE1999 in real terms.
  
  Sources:
  www2.standardandpoors....
  ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/...

  Nov 02 12:33 PM | Link | Reply