This news story has 18 comments:

Register or Login to rate comments »
•  
  

  • Danny Furman: 
  • Comments (320)
  •  • Instablog (27)
  •  • StockTalk (54)
  Now he's not even trying to sound realistic. +15% next year means oil over $150 and $10 Big Macs.

  Nov 13 05:05 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • a fat panda: 
  • Comments (375)
  •  • Instablog (5)
  •  • StockTalk (2)

  • •
  • Joe The Economist
  "Unemployment won't deter people with jobs from making purchase decisions, he says. "
  
  It may affect the banks decision to make the loan.
  
  And isn't this the guy who said that housing would bottom in 2007, and then 2008, and then 2009, and now it is heading up 15%.

  Nov 13 05:06 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • Archman Inv...: 
  • Comments (708)
  •  • Instablog (2)
  •  • StockTalk (237)

  • •
  • The Complete Dividend Plan
  • |
  • The Complete Dividend Plan
  NAR = nothing more than "slick" salespeople. Period.
  
  These people, like those on Wall Street and the financial media have one job and one job alone:
  
  To keep telling people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.
  
  compdivplan.com

  Nov 13 05:09 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • mrdirt: 
  • Comments (56)
  " And God didnt make little green apples and it doesnt rain in Indianapolis in
  the summertime" or "It never rains in southern california, dont let them warn you,
  it pours, baby it pours".
  
  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said
  they'll take action -- if they have a job". He better be right or NAR might make him
  look for a new job.

  Nov 13 05:11 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • tunaman4u2: 
  • Comments (527)
  •  • StockTalk (128)
  No chance of 15% rise in homes...
  Remember that printed money went to Wall st. not Main st.

  Nov 13 05:14 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • very rare: 
  • Comments (20)
  I have cash, but won't buy if homes go up 15%. The $6500 would not be of much help then. Hope he is wrong and prices stay even or drop a bit. This is just like when they started car rebates and then jacked up the prices of the cars. Not too many buyers either.

  Nov 13 05:27 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • Steve in Gr...: 
  • Comments (415)
  NAR = National Association of Realtors. Do you suppose their economist might be talking their book?
  
  And loan approval won't be a problem, since Barney Frank is running the U.S. mortgage industry. Interest rates won't be a problem. No down, no job, no problem.
  
  If the U.S. government pours money into home loans via Freddie and Fannie, we might very well get the real estate market to reinflate the same way we have gotten the U.S. equity market to reinflate. Printed money.

  Nov 13 05:35 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • TraderMark: 
  • Comments (1072)
  •  • Instablog (98)
  •  • StockTalk (2)

  • •
  • Fund My Mutual Fund
  I would respectfully ask that people research Mr Yun's calls in 2007 and early 2008; I have many on my blog. I was laughing at them now; as we look back at them in the spirit of hindsight - one can only ask how this person keeps their job.
  
  That said, being the economist at NAR is more of a cheerleading exercise than having to do with "getting it right".
  
  Oct 2007
  
  Yun now calls for home sales to be down 10.8% from last year.
  
  30 days ago, Yun thought it was (drumroll) going to be 8.6%, so he is only off by a factor of 25.6% in 30 days.
  
  Here is the kicker... he thought back in February the year over year drop off would be only (drumroll) 0.6%! Don't even make me try to calculate by what magnitude that 'economic forecast' was off by.
  
  fundmymutualfund.c...
  
  Nov 14, 2007 Yun says "housing will be flat next year"
  
  fundmymutualfund.c...
  
  Jan 4, 2008: "housing will rebound in the spring"

  Nov 13 05:38 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • davidbdc: 
  • Comments (229)
  He misses the simple fact that as long as unemployment is a fear people don't change jobs easily......thus much of the demand for homes is decreased. He might be right that homes will go up 15%.....those homes priced at 80K getting a 10% subsidy. 500K homes are going........Down.
  
  People are rightly avoiding debt and that means much fewer "upgrades" for younger families. When gas starts creeping up near $4 that will hit all the "outburbs" homes........
  
  Aside from people getting married and not wanting to live with the inlaws I can't see too much new demand next year.

  Nov 13 06:09 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • cash: 
  • Comments (115)
  Why should I pay for all these "supposed-to-be-for-my... programs? Nobody paid me a dime when I bought my car or home. I saved and paid cash for the car a hefty 30% down for my home.
  
  And, why the heck are we trying to create artificial demand? is this a capitalist society? U.S. lawmakers & IMF keep giving lectures to the so called 3rd world how they should manage their economies. Listen to these idiots now. As somebody else posted, Capitalism is for the Other Guy. Bunch of free-loaders all!
  
  Adam Smith would be turning in his grave.

  Nov 13 06:24 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • TraderMark: 
  • Comments (1072)
  •  • Instablog (98)
  •  • StockTalk (2)

  • •
  • Fund My Mutual Fund
  The US is doing opposite of what it told Asia to do during its crisis in the late 90s.
  
  Easy to talk to the talk when you are the world bully. When push came to shove, we did not apply any one of those "things you must do" to ourselves.
  
  But obviously the rules don't apply to us... we're above rules. If we were in any number of 100+ other countries the IMF would be in here, telling us to to the exact opposite of everything we have been doing.
  
  But countries like Japan and the US can sweep their problems under rugs, create zombies, stimulate, build , repave, change accounting rules, hide bad debt. and print print print.
  
  Worked for Japan!
  
  
  On Nov 13 06:24 PM cash wrote:
  
  > Why should I pay for all these "supposed-to-be-for-my... programs?
  > Nobody paid me a dime when I bought my car or home. I saved and paid
  > cash for the car a hefty 30% down for my home.
  >
  > And, why the heck are we trying to create artificial demand? is this
  > a capitalist society? U.S. lawmakers & IMF keep giving lectures
  > to the so called 3rd world how they should manage their economies.
  > Listen to these idiots now. As somebody else posted, Capitalism is
  > for the Other Guy. Bunch of free-loaders all!
  >
  > Adam Smith would be turning in his grave.

  Nov 13 06:43 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • mpurple: 
  • Comments (6)
  If house prices try to climb while wages are steady/falling, all we'll get is another bust a few years from now. Aren't we smarter than that?
  
  I guess not.

  Nov 13 06:46 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • Billy Ford: 
  • Comments (54)
  What about the 20% increase in foreclosures? I dont hear any talk of that. Factor that into your equation buddy.. Do you really think a measley 6-8K tax credit will be a determining factor to purchase a home. People are either in the market or they are not...and my money says that there are still a ton of people NOT in the market..

  Nov 13 07:17 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • TCFS: 
  • Comments (2)

  • •
  • The Cash Flow Store
  • |
  • thecashflowstore
  Greetings from the real estate crash epicenter Las Vegas, NV.
  
  Disclosure: I am in Real Estate, but based on the comments thus far you may find this interesting to research.
  
  For those that may think that the hardest hit city in America may be an indicator I offer you this: the increase is already happening, from my experience.
  
  Most economist got all estimates wrong; including the amount of the downside of (a) the crash, some houses are selling here now for 80% less than the last sales price 24 months ago and below replacement cost.
  
  Today in Las Vegas demand is significantly greater than the supply, almost all MLS listings receive multiple offers within the first 72 hours of being on the market. For most of the months of this year over 40% of all purchase activity is cash.
  
  Most of the time the final sales price in the last 6 months is over 15% higher than the last sales of like units that sold and the properties still produce double digit positive cash flow.
  
  Also there was such increases in housing exiting from the last real estate crash in Orange County CA. (without the aid of Alt-A & Subprime loans). History will repeat itself, fear will be replaced with greed again.

  Nov 13 07:24 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • fed_alchemy: 
  • Comments (93)
  The mice took the bait.......OK..... maybe if Stimulus 3 and 4 actually happen and inflation is in the high 20's

  Nov 13 08:04 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • Poor Texan: 
  • Comments (303)
  On Nov 13 07:24 PM TCFS wrote:
  'Greetings from the real estate crash epicenter Las Vegas, NV.
  Most economist got all estimates wrong; including the amount of the
  downside of (a) the crash, some houses are selling here now for 80% less than the last sales price 24 months ago and below replacement cost.
  Today in Las Vegas demand is significantly greater than the supply,
  almost all MLS listings receive multiple offers within the first
  72 hours of being on the market. For most of the months of this year
  over 40% of all purchase activity is cash. Most of the time the final sales price in the last 6 months is over 15% higher than the last sales of like units that sold and the properties still produce double digit positive cash flow.'
  
  Selling less than replacement cost but up 15%? What kind of housing recovery is that? Just speculation by hopeful flippers and investors buying rental properties.

  Nov 13 08:29 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • DrBenway: 
  • Comments (62)
  NAR "Economist" = ROFL

  Nov 13 09:35 PM | Link | Reply
•  
  

  • ebworthen: 
  • Comments (724)
  •  • StockTalk (6)
  There are always carpet baggers speculating on the misfortune of others.
  
  It does not mean that everything is recovering.
  
  Don't forget the $8,000 tax credit and FHA 3% loans.
  
  People buying with cash is nice, but the nobility bought townhouses in Paris with cash right before the revolution.

  Nov 14 12:15 AM | Link | Reply