Seeking Alpha
  • Today - Thursday, November 27, 2014

  • 1:51 PM
    • Arctic Securities maintains its Sell rating and lowers its price and dividend targets on Statoil (NYSE:STO).
    • Notes that “run rate” 2015 operational cash flow is currently at NOK 104B while CAPEX is currently guided at NOK 138B. Consensus dividend expectation is NOK 7.54/share, or NOK 24B. "Statoil will hence before any divestments have to borrow NOK 58B next year to bridge the funding gap."
    • "Statoil is not in a position to continue the current dividend policy." Says oil prices would need to rise to $130/bbl for 2015 and $115/bbl for 2016 to make dividend sustainable.
    • Lowers price target to NOK 115 and dividend estimate by NOK 1.75/share to NOK 5.75 and NOK 6.00 in 2015 and 2016.
    • Shares are -24.6% since Arctic first pegged STO with a Sell rating on July 23. They fell 4.75% today to NOK 142.30.
    • Previously: Crude now -7.6% on OPEC rollover
  • 1:27 PM
    • Monitise (OTCPK:MONIF) gets a £49.2M investment from strategic partners Telefonica (NYSE:TEF), Santander (NYSE:SAN) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA).
    • They will buy 161M ordinary shares at 30.5p/share (Nov. 26's close), representing 8.2% of the existing issued ordinary share capital.
    • Monitise also says it's in discussions to expand its commercial relationships with above partners "to support the development and accelerated rollout of its global platform capabilities."
    • IBM has agreed to deploy Watson in support of Monitise’s new technology platform.
    • Monitise also reiterates current year and longer-term guidance.
    • Short interest is ~11% of float.
    • Monitise was best performer on FTSE AIM 100 index today.
    • Source: press release
    | Comment!
  • 11:32 AM
    • “There’s no sign that we’re going to cure the overhang in the oil market” - Citigroup analyst Seth Kleinman.
    • “If you really need to hit shale production, oil’s going to have to be below $60."
    • “Coming into this meeting, OPEC needed to take big action and they needed to be united, and they’ve failed to do that completely.”
  • 10:48 AM
    • OPEC's decision to maintain its output target is “unambiguously bearish,” SocGen's Mike Wittner says.
    • “This will reverberate for years.”
    • OPEC is saying: “bring on lower prices and let the market do the job of throttling U.S. shale oil growth.”
    • Crude futures -3.7% to $70.97.
  • 10:08 AM
    • Upgrades Barclays (NYSE:BCS) to Buy from Neutral.
    • Price target rises 10% to 300p (26% upside)
    • BOE's “more benign” leverage ratio means BCS is less likely to need additional capital, and will be under less pressure to shrink low risk-weight positions.
    • Barclays has the lowest leverage ratio of major U.K. lenders, and was considered most at risk from the BOE’s decision.
  • Wednesday, November 26, 2014

  • 6:38 PM
    • Tekmira (NASDAQ:TKMR) has filed to sell up to $150M worth of shares through future offerings.
    • The drug developer had $120.4M in cash/investments at the end of September, and no debt.
    | Comment!
  • 6:32 PM
    • Believing the bank will benefit from less demanding leverage ratio requirements, Goldman has upgraded Barclays (NYSE:BCS) to Buy.
    • Meanwhile, HSBC has been downgraded to Neutral on concerns about rising costs - the firm's costs rose 6% Y/Y in Q3.
    • BCS +1.4% AH.
    | 1 Comment
  • 5:37 PM
    • Top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: NXPI +2.6%. TEX +2.2%. CJES +2.2%. NAT +2.0%. PSLV +1.7%.
    • Top losers, as of 5:15 p.m.: VMEM -4.3%. ATW -3.2%. EJ -2.8%. CPB -2.4%. KITE -2.2%.
    | Comment!
  • 4:56 PM
    • KITE Pharma has filed to sell up to $138M worth of shares through future offerings.
    • Expected uses for the proceeds include developing a drug manufacturing facility, R&D, and working capital.
    | Comment!
  • 4:07 PM
    • Thinly-traded nano cap Coronado Biosciences (NASDAQ:CNDO) climbs another 19% today on a 10x surge in volume. Shares have popped over 30% the past three trading days.
    • Last Friday, Coronado-backed CB Pharma filed for an IPO.
    • Previously: CB Pharma on deck for IPO
    | Comment!
  • 2:52 PM
    • Chip stocks are outperforming after Analog Devices (ADI +5.2%) beat FQ4 estimates and offered in-line FQ1 guidance. The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOXX +1.9%) has made new highs.
    • Notable gainers include many analog/mixed-signal and telecom IC firms: TXN +3%. LLTC +2.7%. SMTC +3.1%. ISIL +3.3%. SWKS +3.7%. AVGO +2.9%. OVTI +3.2%. FSL +3.1%. EZCH +2.5%. XLNX +2.3%. ALTR +2.1%. MX +4.3%. PMCS +2.7%. BRCM +2%.
    • On its CC (transcript), ADI noted its telecom equipment chip sales are holding up well in spite of weak capex, aided by the fact its dollar content for 4G base stations is "at least 20% to 30% better" than for 3G base stations. The company also mentioned its lead times were stable in FQ4.
  • 2:24 PM
    • UniPixel (NASDAQ:UNXL) is rallying ahead of a Dec. 4 analyst day (co-hosted with Kodak) where it will show off its InTouch manufacturing process, whose full commercialization has been repeatedly delayed. 138K shares have changed hands vs. a 3-month average of 108K.
    • Many shorts have taken profits in recent months: While 2.4M shares (22% of the float) remained shorted as of Nov. 14, that figure is down sharply from 4.5M as of June 30, and 6.3M as of Nov. 15, 2013.
  • 2:08 PM
    • On top of providing light Q4 sales guidance, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) guided on its CC (transcript) for a Q4 op. margin of -12% to 17%, down sharply from Q3's 11% and Q4 2013's 20%. Gross margin is expected to account for 3% of the Y/Y drop, sales/marketing spend 12%, R&D 18%, and G&A 2%.
    • The outlook has led Barclays, UBS, and Raymond James to downgrade the Chinese online travel leader to neutral ratings. Several other firms have slashed their targets.
    • Piper (Neutral, PT cut to $49): "Management reiterated expectations of 20%-30% PF op margins long-term, but visibility on multi-year margin trajectory is low due to increasing competition. Furthermore, beyond Q4, the company suggested that Q1 PF op margin may be flattish q/q and 2015 PF op margin may be similar to 2014 (low to mid single digits)."
    • Goldman (Neutral, PT cut to $59) likes Ctrip's mobile metrics - mobile was respectively 45% and 35% of hotel and air ticket volume - and notes Ctrip's open platform now claims 1K+ hotel agency partners and 800+ local travel agencies.  But it also expects spending on R&D, rebates (due to price competition), branding, and product coverage expansion to remain heavy.
    • Rivals Qunar (QUNR -2.2%) and eLong (LONG -2.4%) are following Ctrip lower.
    | 1 Comment
  • 1:33 PM
    • Silver Bay (SBY +2.4%) jumped out of the gates in today's session after last night announcing a big boost in its buyback authorization - suggesting management is a believer in the stock's apparent discount to NAV.
    • Others in the sector are also sporting gains: American Homes 4 Rent (AMH +1.1%), American Residential (ARPI +2.6%), Starwood Waypoint (SWAY +2.5%).
    • Not hurting is this morning's disappointing new home sales report.
    | Comment!
  • 12:58 PM
    • Facebook (FB +2.1%) and Twitter (TWTR +2.6%) are rallying on a sleepy pre-Thanksgiving trading day. The companies have respectively seen 21.9M and 16.1M shares traded thus far vs. 3-month averages of 38.3M and 28.1M.
    • Several other Internet stocks (both U.S. and Chinese) are also moving higher. Z +2.3%. TRLA +3%. BITA +5.1%. EJ +6.7%. SFUN +2.6%. VIPS +3.3%. SOHU +2.9%.
    • Facebook is at its highest levels since selling off in late October due to its Q4 revenue and 2015 spending guidance.
  • 12:49 PM
  • 12:39 PM
    • Down yesterday after a grand jury declined to indict Darren Wilson for the shooting of Michael Brown, Digital Ally (NASDAQ:DGLY) is rallying today as protests over the decision continue.
    • Benjamin Crump, the attorney for Brown's family, is among those calling for police officers to wear body cameras. "We won’t have to play this game of witnesses’ memories and secret grand jury procedures ... It would just be transparent, and we could see it ourselves." A 2013 survey found 25% of polled police officers already used body cameras.
    • DGLY is up over 4x since protests first erupted in mid-August.
  • 12:13 PM
    • GoPro (GPRO +3.7%) "plans to start selling multi-rotor helicopters equipped with high-definition cameras late next year, aiming for a price tag between $500 and $1,000," sources tell the WSJ.
    • As it is, GoPro's cameras are often mounted onto drones sold by third parties. The report comes as a top consumer drone maker, China's DJI, begins selling drones featuring its own cameras instead of GoPro's.
    • A drone product launch would mesh with GoPro's ambitious online video efforts: Though the consumer drone market is still in its infancy, YouTube is already full of popular videos of drone footage.
    • GoPro has spiked following the report, adding to the gains it saw today thanks to Piper's note.
  • 12:11 PM
    • Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
    • While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
    • But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
  • 12:00 PM
    | 1 Comment
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