Today - Tuesday, March 3, 2015
- TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE) has "a low quality lead gen business that is poised to plummet," declares SA Pro author The Friendly Bear in a column now out of embargo.
- The author asserts TrueCar's business momentum has "decelerated meaningfully" since its IPO, that "mounting competitive forces" will affect its pricing and expansion efforts, and that recent conference remarks from CEO Scott Painter about 2015 spending plans potentially contradicted guided provided during TrueCar's Q4 CC.
- To back up these arguments, the author notes TrueCar's unique site visits fell meaningfully Q/Q in Q4 for the first time since Q2 2012, and that Y/Y growth in the number of monetized leads per franchise dealer has fallen rapidly (though is still positive for now).
- Shares fell to $17.68 today. TrueCar is coming off a Q4 in which it saw 38% Y/Y revenue growth (compares with 52% in Q3), and is expected by the Street to post 38% growth in 2015.
- TIVO's FQ4 service/technology revenue totaled $91.7M, +9% Y/Y and above an $89.9M consensus. FQ1 service/tech revenue guidance is at $90M-$92M, below a $92.3M consensus. Net income guidance is at $5M-$8M.
- Pleasing the Street: FQ4 net subscriber adds totaled 340K, up from FQ3's 328K and the year-ago period's 319K. MSO subs grew by 324K to 4.53M (3.89M households); TiVo-owned subs (higher-ARPU) grew by 16K to 944K. TiVo-owned sub growth was the best in 7 years. Over 3M of the MSO subs are in Europe, and all European partners saw sub growth in FQ4.
- MSO service revenue +30% Y/Y to $13.7M; TiVo-owned service revenue -7% to $21.5M; media services/other revenue (boosted by Digitalsmiths) +86% to $5.3M. Digitalsmiths revenue was up 25% Q/Q.
- Lifting EPS: Subscription acquisition costs fell to $153 from $155 in FQ3 and $202 a year ago. That contributed to an 11% Y/Y drop in GAAP operating expenses to $53.7M.
- TiVo has risen to $12.02 AH.
- FQ4 results, PR
- After posting a strong FQ4 beat, Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) has guided on its FQ4 CC (webcast) for FQ1 revenue of $64M-$68M, soundly above a $59M consensus. Net income guidance is at $18M-$20M.
- FQ4 gross margin was 64.3%, up from FQ3's 63.4% and the year-ago period's 64.1%, and above guidance of 62%-64%. FQ1 GM guidance is also at 62%-64%. GAAP operating expenses rose 22% Y/Y to $24.3M (compares with 62% revenue growth) - R&D spend totaled $16M, and SG&A $8.3M.
- Ambarella has risen to $66.80 AH, making new highs along the way. GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) has risen to $41.20. Ambarella had already risen 10% over the last two days in the wake of Xiaomi's action camera launch.
- Ambarella's FQ4 results, PR
- Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ:BOBE) has turned far south in the post-session, down 18%, after saying it won't go for separating from its BEF Foods business.
- Activist investor Sandell Asset Management has been pressing the firm to split so it can unlock the real estate value in its restaurant portion (70% of the business) -- which Sandell estimates at $900M.
- Bob Evans earnings missed on top and bottom lines today after the close.
- Though Bazaarvoice (NASDAQ:BV) beat FQ3 estimates, it has guided on its CC (webcast) for 6%-10% FY16 (ends April '16) revenue growth, below a consensus for 14% growth.
- The online reviews/customer engagement platform provider added ~600 network clients in FQ3, up from FQ2's ~500 and FQ1's ~300, and bringing the total base above 2,900.
- Active clients rose by 57 Q/Q to 1,315, after rising by 66 in FQ2. Annualized SaaS revenue per active client fell by $3K to $144K.
- Gross margin fell to 63.7% from 68.3% a year ago. GAAP operating expenses fell 9% Y/Y to $34.5M - sales/marketing spend totaled $18M, R&D $8.8M, and G&A $6.9M.
- Shares have fallen to $8.00 AH.
- FQ3 results, PR
- The company last September announced a probe into its accounting and this delay suggests it may be finding plenty of cockroaches.
- RATE -6.1% after hours
- SEC Form 12b-25
- Previously: Bankrate -17.5% after announcing SEC investigation (Sept. 15, 2014)
- While beating FQ4 estimates, Veeva (NYSE:VEEV) is guiding for FQ1 revenue of $87M-$88M (in-line with an $87.7M consensus) and FY16 (ends Jan. '16) revenue of $390M-$395M (in-line with a $392.1M consensus). FQ1 and FY16 EPS guidance is respectively at $0.10 and $0.43-$0.45, above consensus estimates of $0.09 and $0.41.
- Subscription revenue rose 59% Y/Y in FQ4 to $233.1M. Services/other revenue rose 19% to $20.5M. The deferred revenue balance rose 68% to $113M.
- Veeva ended the quarter with 276 customers, up from 198 a year earlier. CRM, Vault (content management), and Network (master data management) customers respectively totaled 191, 135, and 22.
- Operating expenses rose 27% Y/Y in FQ4 to $31.8M (compares with 39% revenue growth). Op. cash flow was -$1.3M in FQ4, but totaled $67.7M for the whole of FY15.
- Shares have fallen to $29.92 AH. They rose 5.5% in regular trading.
- FQ4 results, PR
- Update: Veeva also announces it's buying Qforma CrowdLink, a software solution for finding and monitoring key opinion leaders (KOLs) within the life sciences industry, for an undisclosed sum. The deal isn't expected to have a material impact on FY16 results.
- Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) reports firearm sales fell 14.7% Y/Y to $124.5M in FQ3.
- Demand for long guns was off 40%.
- The company's gross margin rate declined 660 bps to 33.6% on the volume slide and some promotional activity.
- Operating expenses rate +260 bps to 21.5%.
- Guidance: S&W see revenue of $532M-$536M vs. $527M consensus and EPS of $0.75-$0.77 for FY15.
- SWHC +8.8% after hours after shedding 4.3% during the daily session.
4:20 PM| 1 Comment
- Uranium Resources (URRE -13.3%) is sharply lower on plans for a securities purchase agreement with institutional investors to sell 4M common shares and warrants to purchase 2.2M common shares.
- The securities will be sold at $1.50/unit, with each unit consisting of one common share and a warrant to purchase 0.55 shares at an exercise price of $2.00/whole share.
- URRE plans to use the proceeds to fund ongoing business activities, including an $800K exploration drilling program in South Texas, reclamation work, capital expenditures, working capital and other general corporate purposes.
- Shareholders of Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX +30.4%) may be popping the corks about now considering their stock is the top gainer in the U.S. today on massive turnover of 81M. The party got started when the company filed an 8-K this morning detailing the results from an interim analysis of a long-term heart safety study of its obesity drug, Contrave (naltrexone HCl/bupropion HCl). Patients treated with Contrave showed a statistically significant reduction in major adverse cardiac events (MACE) compared to placebo.
- The company has included claims in certain Contrave patents (No. 8,969,371) and provisional patent applications (61/913216, 61/914938 and 61/984580) about Contrave's positive effects on cardiovascular (CV) outcomes based on the data in this interim analysis.
- What's not to like? Well, maybe a lot. Forbes reporter Matthew Herper says, per an agreement with the FDA, the interim results should not have been released publicly because it jeopardizes the conclusion of the study. Patients aware of Contrave's purported CV benefits may opt out of the trial in order to get access to drug instead of facing the 50% probability that they are receiving a placebo.
- If the trial cannot be conducted to completion, then the expected FDA clearance of the CV benefit claim will be delayed indefinitely until such time as complete data can be submitted. How long would this be? Orexigen says that a second large, randomized, placebo-controlled study assessing Contrave's effect on CV outcomes should start later this year. The expected completion date? 2022.
- Previously: Orexigen torpedoes shorts on news of Contrave's heart safety benefit (March 3)
- Sanchez Energy (SN +6.5%) posts strong gains despite missing analyst estimates for Q4 earnings and revenues, as it reported quarterly records of $172M in Q4 revenues, up 33% Y/Y, and for average production at ~43.9K boe/day.
- Year-end 2014 estimated proved reserves totaled ~135M boe, up 6% from the end of Q3 and up 129% from ~59M boe at year-end 2013.
- Says it has 513 gross producing wells with 37 gross wells in various stages of completion, continuing to focus most of its resources on Catarina and planning to average 4 gross rigs over 2015.
- SN also says its recently revised $600M-$650M capex will be fully funded through operating cash flow and cash on hand, without utilizing any of its undrawn bank credit facility
- With the Nasdaq down 0.6%, the number of tech companies posting outsized declines easily surpasses the number posting significant gains.
- Chinese firms are well-represented on the ranks of notable decliners. In addition to Alibaba, the list includes CDN owner ChinaCache (CCIH -4.6%), mobile app developer Cheetah Mobile (CMCM -9.8%), solar module vendor Yingli (YGE -4%), polysilicon provider Daqo (DQ -5.1%), real estate sites SouFun (SFUN -4.5%) and Leju (LEJU -4.3%), and data center owner 21Vianet (VNET -2.9%).
- Other decliners include chip equipment giant Applied Materials (AMAT -4.2%), seismic tech provider Geospace (GEOS -4.9%), VoIP infrastructure hardware/software firm Sonus (SONS -4.7%), IT services firm WidePoint (WYY -3.7%), auto site TrueCar (TRUE -7.4%), and online grocery coupon provider Coupons.com (COUP -5.2%).
- SouFun fell hard yesterday following news 58.com is buying real estate site Anjuke. Many Chinese tech firms sold off last Friday as the yuan made 3-year lows against the dollar.
- Previously covered: Seagate/Western Digital, Micron, Overstock
- Notable gainers: Veeva, Gogo, Vringo, Finjan, Aviat
- Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Urban is negative on the offshore drilling sector and particularly on Hercules Offshore, but he likes Seadrill (SDRL +1.6%) well enough to offer some praise while maintaining his Hold rating.
- SDRL’s strong contract coverage and high-quality fleet leave the company relatively well positioned amid a likely long downturn, Urban says, and he views the announced deferral of jackup newbuild deliveries as a positive given his expectation that the shallow water market is on the cusp of a sharp decline.
- SDRL has a best in class fleet and is making the right moves for the long term, Urban says but warns that nothing is guaranteed in this market, fully expecting rigs to go idle.
- After trading near breakeven much of the day ahead of this afternoon's FQ4 report, Veeva (VEEV +6.5%) has risen sharply over the last 30 minutes. Volume (1.62M shares) is well above a 3-month daily average of 898K.
- The cloud life sciences/pharma software provider is at its highest levels since November.
- Overstock (NASDAQ:OSTK) states its 8-year-old case against Merrill Lynch over alleged "illegal market manipulation" will proceed to trial after California's Supreme Court declined to review a November appellate court ruling, and that relevant discovery materials related to its claims against both Merrill and Goldman Sachs will be released to the public.
- Overstock has alleged several brokers engaged in naked short selling in "a deliberate effort to manipulate Overstock.com's share prices." Back in 2010, it settled claims against certain defendants for $4.44M. While Overstock's California case against Merrill is able to proceed, it isn't able to pursue its claims against Goldman on jurisdictional grounds.
- Shares have sold off amid a broader decline in equities. Volume is fairly light - 104K shares vs. a 3-month daily average of 201K.
2:22 PM| Comment!
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs