Friday, November 27, 2015
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
- Deutsche's Vijay Bhagavath has downgraded Infoblox (NYSE:BLOX) to Sell ahead of its Nov. 30 FQ1 report, and cut his target by $7 to $13. Needham's Alex Henderson has downgraded to Hold.
- Bhagavath expects "an inline to slightly light report," but has cut his FY16 and FY17 estimates. "Basis for our underweight thesis is our research noting: 1) Sunsetting of the “-A” refresh cycle by Dec/15 (currently driving +10% of product growth) likely to mute product refresh trends in 2016; 2) Transition of BLOX’s IP Address Automation and Security business to a SaaS model “deflationary” to FY16+ topline growth; 3) Migration to Public Clouds structurally compressing the [addressable market] for BLOX’s products."
- Henderson, who upgraded to Buy a year ago (when shares were at $16.34), is worried about sales turnover and product refresh timing issues. "While we believe the long- term prospects for BLOX are good and we see a real need for its technology, these products are still sold and must be marketed. BLOX likely needs the better part of CY16 to rebuild its sales efforts. We expect solid Oct and Jan quarters but see real risk to down 1H16 numbers." His calendar 2016 revenue and EPS estimates have respectively been cut to $386M and $0.34 from $419M and $0.38.
- Infoblox has fallen to $14.25 premarket.
Monday, November 23, 2015
- "Myopic trading due to bad weather is an opportunity, not a problem," says Dane Capital Management, still bullish on AgroFresh Solutions (NASDAQ:AGFS), after the stock was hammered last week after an in-line Q3, but lack of Q4 guidance and management comments about a weak harvest.
- The company has since provided soft guidance - midpoint of 2015 EBTIDA of $90M was down from $100M - but Dane thinks the 40%+ decline in the stock price over the previous three months has more than baked this in.
- Management and the board seem to agree and today disclosed purchases of nearly 39K shares of company stock last week.
- 2016 could see strong growth with just a trend harvest, and the company's new Harvista and SmartLock technologies continuing to gain traction, says Dane. Other catalysts include coverage from the bulge bracket firms who underwrote the SPAC, and a $10M buyback program.
- Related: AgroFresh Solutions Looks Like A Ripe And Tasty Investment (Sept. 21)
- Daniel McCranie discloses he bought 100K ON Semi (ON -0.4%) shares last Friday at $10.20, raising his total stake to 260,781.
- The purchase came two days after ON fell hard in response to news it's buying analog/power management chipmaker Fairchild Semi in a $2.4B all-cash deal.
- S&P placed ON's credit rating on review for downgrade in response to the deal, which will primarily be funded via debt. However, Citi's Chris Danely upgraded to Buy and hiked his target by $4 to $13, while declaring he has "high confidence" in ON's post-acquisition accretion targets.
- ON, for its part, has declared the deal will "bring together two companies with complementary product lines to offer customers the full spectrum of high, medium and low voltage products." It's the latest on a very long list of major chip industry acquisitions to have occurred over the last 24 months.
- Activist Elliott Management has disclosed it bought 178.5K Citrix (CTXS +1.3%) shares last Thursday through one entity, and 346.5K through another. Purchase prices ranged from $72.83-$73.41.
- The buys came after Citrix tumbled on Wednesday in response to the mixed 2016/2017 guidance provided with news it's spinning off its GoTo software unit (as sought by Elliott) and cutting more jobs.
- Nathaniel Lucas discloses he bought 10K ROVI shares last Thursday at $10.42, bringing his total stake to 35,214.
- The purchase comes less than a month after Rovi plunged in the wake of a Q3 miss blamed on the end of a licensing contract with a consumer electronics OEM.
- Activist Engaged Capital (won two board seats in May)has continued buying Rovi shares since the Q3 report. Following its most recently-disclosed purchase (on Nov. 10), Engaged owned 1.04M shares.
- FBR Director of Research David Hilal and team started with 250 dividend stocks tracked by the company, then narrowed it to 25 to own in a rising rate environment, and then further trimmed the list to a favored ten.
- Among the requirements: A minimum yield of 3%, an extremely safe payout with the opportunity to go higher, and stable to improving fundamentals which might drive share price appreciation in addition to the dividend.
- The highest yielder of the group is New Residential (NYSE:NRZ) at more than a 15% yield. Analyst Jessica Levi-Ribner figures the stock deserves something closer to a 9% yield given its growing book value and clear outlook into earnings and the dividend (which has been on the rise).
- The lowest yielder on the list is James River Holdings (NASDAQ:JRVR) at just over a 2% yield, but that's not counting special dividends - FBR expects the yield is nearly 9% once those are factored in.
- The rest: Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT), Peak Resorts (NASDAQ:SKIS), Great Ajax (NYSE:AJX), Hospitality Properties (NYSE:HPT), Preferred Apartments (NYSE:APTS), Western Gas Partners (NYSE:WES), National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI), Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE:DOC).
- "Given the segment's momentum, we believe 2016 will be an inflection point for [augmented reality] smart glasses," writes Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan, launching coverage on Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) with an Overweight rating and $8.50 target.
- Chan declares Himax, which supplies LCoS microdisplays for Google Glass and is believed by some analysts to have a supply deal for Microsoft's HoloLens, well-positioned to benefit AR/VR headset adoption. He also expects the recent launch of OLED driver and TDDI (integrated touch controller/display driver) ICs to strengthen Himax's display driver business.
- The coverage comes two weeks after Baird started Himax at Outperform, shortly following the company's Q3 report.
- Stating checks indicate the company is facing bigger-than-expected competitive, cost, and product timing risks, JMP Securities has downgraded Cavium (NASDAQ:CAVM) to Underperform, and set a $50 target.
- The firm adds it considers both consensus estimates and Cavium's valuation too high. The call comes less than a month after Cavium issued light Q4 guidance to go with in-line Q3 results, while blaming a distribution model change at its largest data center client.
- Shares have fallen to $68.75 premarket. The network processor/ARM server CPU vendor trades for 40x a 2016 EPS consensus of $1.73.
Friday, November 20, 2015
- Bob Gamgort has disclosed he bought 7K Wayfair (NYSE:W) shares on Tuesday at prices of $35.90, $36.00, and $36.50.
- The purchases came as the online furniture retailer sold off after Whitney Tilson reiterated his bearish stance at the Robin Hood Investor's Conference.
- Shares are up 84% YTD, but down 36% from an August peak of $56.84.
- Nine insider buys have been disclosed this week for beaten-down Ion Geophysical (IO +11.2%). The most recent buys include a 750K-share purchase by director James Lapeyre at $0.43, a 50K-share purchase by CEO Brian Hanson at $0.40, and purchases of 26K and 4K shares by general counsel James Seely at $0.34 and $0.33.
- Director Franklin Myers and CFO Steven Bate have also recently bought shares. The seismic hardware/services firm sports an $82M market cap, and has fallen over 95% since 2011.
- Two weeks ago: Ion jumps on Q3 beat, $25M buyback
- Goldman's Jerry Revich has upgraded Trimble (NASDAQ:TRMB) to Buy, while keeping his $26 target. He cites the positioning/navigation hardware firm's efforts to cut costs and extend its BuildingPoint construction product distribution network.
- Trimble soared in late October after beating Q3 estimates and issuing better-than-feared Q4 guidance. Shares go for 18x a 2016 EPS consensus of $1.27.
- In a 13G filing, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global discloses it now has a 9.9M-share (9.96%) stake in Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS). As of Q1 2014, Tiger had a 4.54% stake.
- The disclosure comes a week after the Chinese online retailer nosedived in response to a Q3 warning. Shares recovered some of their losses on Wednesday after Vipshop posted Q3 results and provided better-than-feared Q4 guidance. The company also reported (in spite of the sales shortfall) operating expenses fell to 20.7% of revenue from 23.3% a year ago.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
- With shares down 46% YTD and the company sporting a 7.3% dividend yield, Craig-Hallum's Christian Schwab has upgraded Seagate (NASDAQ:STX) to Buy, while keeping his $48 target.
- Schwab expects the pending launch of a 10TB hard drive to improve Seagate's fortunes in the high-capacity enterprise segment, which was responsible for its FQ1 warning. Seagate is believed to have recently lost share to Western Digital in high-capacity enterprise, which has seen healthy growth due to strong demand from Web/cloud service providers.
- Seagate hasn't yet moved premarket. With worries about soft PC demand and SSD encroachment persisting, shares go for just 8x an FY17 (ends June '17) EPS consensus of $4.29. $2.2B in net debt is on the balance sheet.
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