Today - Sunday, August 2, 2015
- President Obama will unveil the final version of his plan to tackle greenhouse gases from coal-fired power plants on Monday, in what he calls the nation's most important step to combat climate change.
- The revised Clean Power Plan will seek to slash carbon emissions from the power sector 32% from 2005 levels in 2030, and will require each state to submit a plan next year that spells out how it will meet the goal assigned to it.
- ETFs: XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, PBW, DUG, BGR, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, QCLN, FENY, PXE, PXI, FIF, PXJ, PSCE, NDP, RYE, GRN, FXN, PUW, DDG, HECO, DRIP, GUSH
- Pacific Rim trade officials failed to clinch a final deal for the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Friday following several days of intense talks in Hawaii.
- Key sticking points: Auto trade between Japan and North America, New Zealand's dairy exports and monopoly periods for next-generation drugs.
- The deadlock may also sink U.S.-led plans, which aimed to finalize the trade deal by the end of this year.
- Previously: Major issues remain as TPP talks head into final day (Jul. 31 2015)
Friday, July 31, 2015
- U.S. stock futures are modestly lower, all down by 0.2%, on a big day for corporate energy earnings, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
- Crude, along with other commodities, are extending their July slump, with WTI futures -1.8% to $47.66/bbl.
- Moving across the globe: European stocks are little changed as investors digest a flurry of earnings reports, while shares in China closed out their worst in nearly six years. The Shanghai Composite lost 9% this week, and fell a whopping 14% over July.
- Up ahead: Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment.
- ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, UPRO, PSQ, SPXU, TQQQ, SPXL, RSP, QID, SQQQ, QLD, DOG, DXD, RWL, UDOW, EPS, SDOW, DDM, VFINX, BXUB, QQEW, QQQE, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, QQXT, SPUU, UDPIX, OTPIX, RYARX
- Pacific Rim officials are nearing the final spurt of Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, but differences over dairy exports and exclusivity periods for drugs still need to be resolved before a final deal is reached.
- About 650 officials from 12 nations are taking part in the discussions on the Hawaiian island of Maui. A news conference is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET after the last talks are concluded.
- Previously: Trans-Pacific Partnership deal in sight (Jul. 27 2015)
- Investors are bracing for Puerto Rico to miss about $58M in bond payments in the coming days, as the U.S. commonwealth attempts to restructure $72B of debt.
- Saturday's deadline could mark the first skipped payment to bondholders since Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla deemed the island's debts unsustainable and urged negotiations with creditors.
- Because Saturday is a weekend, payment can be made Monday.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
- The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.98% from last week's 4.04%, posting a second straight weekly decline, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey.
- The average rate for the 15-year fixed fell to 3.17% from 3.21% in the prior week.
- A year ago, the respective 30-year and 15-year rates averaged 4.12% and 3.23%.
- Based on the market action, a September rate hike just got somewhat more likely after the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at 2.3%. The print missed estimates, but Q1 was revised to +0.6% from -0.2%, so the full measure of the report could be deemed a beat.
- 30-day Fed Funds futures for October are 12 basis points lower than July, suggesting about a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point hike when the kids go back to school. January 2016 futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, plus the beginnings of a chance of a 2nd boost to rates.
- The 10-year Treasury yield - initially moving up to 2.32% after the GDP number - has slipped back to 2.29%, flat on the session. TLT +0.2%, TBT -0.4%
- ETFs: SHY, IEF, PST, IEI, BIL, TYO, DTYS, UST, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, ITE, DTYL, DTUS, DTUL, SST, TUZ, DFVL, FIVZ, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
- U.S. economic growth likely rebounded in the second quarter as healthy consumer spending and residential investment offset the drag from trade and the energy sector.
- Experts estimate that after a contraction in the first three months of the year, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% last quarter.
- The Commerce Department will publish the initial GDP figure at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- For the first time, U.S. House Speaker John Boehner has expressed his support for repealing the 40-year-old ban on domestic crude exports, a move that could breathe new life into a bill in his chamber.
- "Until recently our nation's energy policy was rooted in a scarcity mindset that went back to the 1970s," Boehner told reporters. "But now America is experiencing an energy boom and our policy needs to follow suit."
- The House will start working on wider energy legislation when it returns after the August recess.
- Crude futures flat at $48.80/bbl.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
- The Export-Import bank will stay shuttered for the rest of the summer after the House of Representatives passed a highway funding bill that excluded a measure to save the lender
- As a result, several corporations - the latest Boeing - are considering moving work overseas given the federal credit agency's uncertain future.
- Ex-Im provided $27.4B in financing to support U.S. exports in fiscal year 2014.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
- As expected, the FOMC left rates unchanged, but didn't commit itself one way or the other to any action in September. This could be interpreted dovishly as one might suppose today's statement would begin to lay the groundwork for a September hike were that the Fed's intention.
- The Dow (DIA +0.5%), S&P 500 (SPY +0.5%), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.1%) all added a few points in the immediate aftermath of the 2 ET statement, but have returned to levels seen before the news.
- Treasurys continue to take on water, with the 10-year yield up five basis points on the session to 2.30%. TLT -0.6%, TBT +1.2%
- Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a 1-in-3 chance of a 25 basis points move in September.
- In a unanimous decision the FOMC leaves in place the 0-0.25% target range for the Fed Funds rate.
- Policymakers continue to see an improving economy and labor situation, suggesting the possibility of a hike at the next meeting (mid-September) is on the table (as is the chance of no action).
- FOMC Statement
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