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  • Today - Wednesday, September 17, 2014

  • 4:04 AM
     
    • According to new figures from the Census Bureau, inflation-adjusted income for the median U.S. household rose by just 0.3% in 2013, no higher than a quarter of a century ago.
    • This translates into the median household edging up just $180 last year to $51,939, highlighting another year of stagnant incomes.
    • The poverty rate fell from 15% to 14.5%, the first decrease since 2006, but it is still two percentage points higher than it was before the recession.
    | Comment!
  • Tuesday, September 16, 2014

  • 4:12 PM
     
    • Net foreign inflow of long-term U.S. securities were $57.7B.
    • Taking into account both foreign and U.S. securities, the net foreign purchases of long-term securities were -$18.6B vs. $18.7B (revised) prior.
    • Foreigners decreased their holdings of U.S. T-bills by $6.8B.
    • Report
    | Comment!
  • 11:56 AM
    • The last week has seen a number of shops moving forward their forecasts for the timing of Fed rate hikes, and suggesting the FOMC will set the stage for tighter policy by removing the rates at zero for a "considerable time" language from its policy statement tomorrow.
    • Not so fast, says the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath in a video chat. The "considerable time" pledge will, in fact, remain.
    • The news is enough the send a previously flatlining S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) to a 0.65% gain. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.5%) and DJIA (DIA +0.5%) rise alongside.
    • ETFs: SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, VOO, IVV, SPXU, UPRO, SPXL, RSP, RWL, EPS, BXUB, SPLX, SFLA, BXUC, SPUU
    | 24 Comments
  • 9:38 AM
    • Forty-eight percent of fund managers believe the Fed will begin rate hikes in Q2, according to the BAML Fund Manager Survey for September. That's up from 38% one month previous. The ECB is a different story - with 42% expecting QE before year's end vs. only 32% believing so in August.
    • Naturally in this scenario, the group overwhelmingly - 86% - expects the dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) to strengthen, not just against the euro (NYSEARCA:FXE), but the yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) as well, given the BOJ's threat to ease more.
    • The Scottish referendum, meanwhile, has managers skittish, with the U.K. (NYSEARCA:EWU) being the region most want to underweight in the coming 12 months.
    • Dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, FORX, UDNT, UUPT, USDU
    | 3 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
     
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  • 4:07 AM
     
    • President Barack Obama will announce an expansion of military and medical resources to fight the Ebola epidemic in West Africa later today.
    • The new plan involves as many as 3,000 U.S. forces to help organize, train new health care workers and build treatment clinics. The Department of Defense will direct $500M for the effort.
    • The World Health Organization's latest count estimates that 4,784 people have been infected with the virus, while 2,400 have died.
    | Comment!
  • 2:41 AM
    • TransCanada (NYSE:TRP) says the cost of the South Dakota portion of the Keystone XL pipeline has more than doubled to almost $2B in the last four years while the project awaits federal approval.
    • Many factors have led to the increase, including the drawn-out regulatory process, inflation, currency changes, labor cost increases and materials storage.
    • The new estimate brings the total cost of the project to $5.4B, although it will be revised higher once regulatory approval is received.
    | 2 Comments
  • Monday, September 15, 2014

  • 9:16 AM
     
    • August Industrial Production: -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus, +0.2% (revised) prior.
    • Capacity utilization 78.8%, 79.3% consensus; 79.1% (revised) prior.
    | 2 Comments
  • 8:30 AM
     
    • Sep Empire State Survey: 27.5 vs. 15.9 expected, 14.69 prior.
    • New Orders: 16.9 vs. 14.1 prior.
    • Shipments: 27.1 vs. 24.6 prior.
    | 2 Comments
  • 4:50 AM
    • Condensate exports from the U.S. are continuing for the third straight month, following the easing of a 40-year crude export ban in June.
    • As U.S. condensate supply continues to surge due to the shale boom, oil producers are looking to export a growing surplus, while consumers, such as refiners, have lobbied to keep exports forbidden to ensure lower energy costs in the U.S.
    • Washington has still held back on issuing more permits to export the minimally refined oil, despite growing international pressure to soften the ban,
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
    | Comment!
  • Friday, September 12, 2014

  • 3:46 PM
    • There's a 40% chance "considerable time" - as in "Fed Funds will stay near zero for a considerable time" - is dropped from the FOMC policy statement next week, says Citi's Steven Englander.
    • This would be a "major hawkish step," says Englander, and even were it to be replaced by "data dependent," it opens to door for a rate hike prior to current market expectations for mid-2015.
    • Markets also should be prepared for a hawkish shift in the "dots," though this would be secondary to the possible change in language, says Englander.
    • Previously: BofA moves up forecast of first rate hike by 3 months
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, DTUS, SST, DTUL, TUZ
    | 24 Comments
  • 10:02 AM
     
    • July business inventories: +0.4% to 1,750.1B in-line with consensus and +0.4% in June.
    • Sales +0.8% to $1,360.3B.
    • Inventory/Sales ratio at 1.29.
    | Comment!
  • 9:57 AM
     
    | 1 Comment
  • 9:48 AM
    • It's taken less than two weeks in September to erase all of the summer's big gains in long-term Treasury prices. Today's five basis point jump in the 10-year yield to 2.60% brings it above the level it was at just after the Memorial Day weekend.
    • If Europe led yields south during the summer, it's leading them north now, with the German 10-year Bund yield up another five basis points to 1.05% after sinking to below 0.9% two weeks ago. Italian, Spanish, and British yields are sharply higher as well (though all three countries sport 10-year rates lower than the U.S.).
    • TLT -0.7%, TBT +1.4%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, PST, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, IEI, TYO, DLBS, DTYS, VGLT, UST, UBT, VGIT, TLO, TBX, GSY, SCHR, TENZ, DTYL, LBND, ITE, TYD, TYBS, DLBL, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | 3 Comments
  • 8:31 AM
     
    • August Retail Sales: +0.6% at $444.4B vs. in-line with expectation, 0.3% (revised) in July.
    • Ex-auto +0.3% in-line with expectation, +0.3% (revised) prior.
    | 4 Comments
  • 8:31 AM
     
    • Aug Import/Export Prices: Import prices -0.9% M/M vs. consensus of -1.0% and -0.3% prior (revised).
    • Export prices -0.5% M/M vs. consensus of -0.1% and 0.1% prior (revised).
    | Comment!
  • 7:34 AM
    • The first Fed rate hike will occur in June of next year, not September as earlier forecast, says the team at Bank of America. Over the 18 months following, BofA sees rate hikes at every other Fed meeting and a peak Fed Funds rate of 4%.
    • Why the changed forecast? Growth and inflation data have been stronger than the bank expected, and booming asset markets alongside falling long-term bond yields have triggered a "re-engagement of the banking system."
    • Also seen is a gradual change in rhetoric from Janet Yellen, and the bank expects an imminent change to the Fed's long-used phrase of rates at zero for a "considerable time."
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, SHV, VGSH, SCHO, DTUS, SST, DTUL, TUZ
    | Comment!
  • 3:09 AM
    • The EU has agreed to implement its new sanctions against Russia today, but will continue to assess their application based on the "situation on the ground."
    • The new restrictions will hit Russia's state-controlled banks and oil companies, but will not include the gas sector, including Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), the biggest gas supplier to Europe.
    • The U.S. is preparing its own set of new sanctions, which will be announced by President Obama later today.
    • Related tickers: OTC:RNFTF, OTC:AKSJF, OTCPK:SBRCY, OTC:JSCVL
    | 6 Comments
  • Thursday, September 11, 2014

  • 10:13 AM
     
    • The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.12%, a bit higher than last week's 4.10% reading which was the lowest rate since last October, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey.
    • The average rate for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.26% in the latest week from 3.24% in the prior week.
    • A year ago, the 30- and 15-year averages were 4.57% and 3.59%, respectively.
    | Comment!
  • 10:02 AM
     
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