I already covered these alternate propulsion stocks in a past entry, so I will just focus on PLUG as it continues its climb and is now worth over a billion USD (even more since it will offer additional shares, see latest prospectus and many earlier follow-on offerings).
PLUG had less than 5 million in revenue per quarter in late 2013 and it had more generated revenue in 2011 than in 2012: 27.6 million USD versus 26.1 million USD.
Now fantasies are ignited again thanks to a large forklift order from Walmart.*
Yet Revenue is simply dismal for a company with a market cap of over a billion dollars - especially since PLUG only does forklifts / material handling and had to give up on mainstream markets some years ago as losses mounted and cash dwindled (these earlier "potential" markets and opportunities were: hydrogen cars, home energy stations, telecom tower emergency backup power...**).
The only "hyper growth mode" I see is the stock price - similar to the hype surrounding TSLA and its potential new markets as dreamed up by analysts (grid/buffer storage and autonomous cars.)
Traders can have at it and bid up PLUG shares on news such as "CNBC interviews" (the PLUG CEO recently gave an interview on the network). This has nothing to do with fundamentals, an investor should stay away from such stocks in my opinion.
In fact, as I wrote back in 2013 for TSLA, such media appearances (CNBC was a guest at the TSLA factory for a full day) may be near the top of the pump when the last retail investors discover the stock and buy into it blindly after it gained hundreds of percentage points.
Maybe the next earnings will bring PLUG back to earth over the course of 2014?
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* PR from PLUG concerning this order:
PLUG POWER RECEIVES MILESTONE ORDER FROM WALMART FOR MULTI-SITE HYDROGEN FUEL CELL DEPLOYMENT
www.plugpower.com/news/pressreleases/14-...
EV proponents on the other hand hope that Li-Ion prices will continue to fall:
Electric forklift sales may jump fivefold by 2020 as li-ion prices drop
green.autoblog.com/2013/11/12/electric-f.../
** It's funny to see bullish analysts dream about the same potential market(s) for TSLA in early 2014. PLUG wanted to offer a hydrogen home station and had a prototype with HMC back in 2007. Nothing came out of it:
Home Energy Station is a fuel cell system that converts natural gas into hydrogen that can be used to fuel a hydrogen-powered car, while providing heat and electricity for residential use.
(keep in mind the above quote is late 2007 PR from Plug Power, so almost seven years old)
Now the company talks again about "entry into Asia and the TRU/GSE/Range Extender markets". As most readers are certainly aware the auto big boys will offer hydrogen production cars starting in 2015.
In case hydrogen indeed takes off, it will be Hyundai, Honda and Toyota (with maybe Daimler, GM and F joining in soon) dominating the hydrogen transportation markets in my opinion.
PLUG isn't even save in its current niche in my opinion should hydrogen fuel cells forklift sales take off:
Toyota (or more precisely Toyota Industries) is a leader in forklifts and had fuel-cell prototypes since 2005:
Toyota Industries first prototyped a fuel cell forklift in 2005 and has been working on a commercial model since 2005.
As with (battery-only) EVs the big car companies are just waiting for the right moment to introduce such technology in mass production - then the competitive environment will get very hard for companies such as PLUG and TSLA.
Both EV and hydrogen car/truck/bus sales are (still) in infant stages and it's far from certain who will dominate these sectors long-term. It will be a marathon (a decade or more) and the big auto players have deep pockets to run until the end and overtake/outspend the pioneers and early movers.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: I may go short PLUG using options in the future as it crosses/is trading near or above $10 (but the IV is too high at the moment for put options)