Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - SBRA an increase to $0.36 - MPW increased to $0.21/share. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. NHI has already announced an increase to $0.77 in its Q2-14 dividend.
Share Price | 2014 FFO Estimate | Div/ | Percent Change | LTM | ||||||||
Company_name_and_ticker | 1-01 | 04-11 | 1-01 | 04-11 | Yield | FFO | Price | Pr+Div | 14 FFO | Target | Div | |
Aviv REIT | (AVIV) | 23.70 | 25.00 | 1.85 | 1.86 | 5.76 | 77.42 | 5.49 | 8.52 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.00 |
Physicians Realty | (DOC) | 12.24 | 13.28 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 6.78 | 94.74 | 8.50 | 10.33 | -3.06 | 2.19 | 0.00 |
Health Care REIT | (HCN) | 53.57 | 61.77 | 4.00 | 4.03 | 5.15 | 78.91 | 15.31 | 16.79 | 0.75 | -2.12 | 3.92 |
Health Care Prop | (HCP) | 36.32 | 40.22 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 5.42 | 72.19 | 10.74 | 12.24 | -1.31 | -4.85 | 3.81 |
Health Care Realty | (HR) | 21.31 | 24.43 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 4.91 | 82.76 | 14.64 | 16.05 | 2.84 | -2.58 | 0.00 |
Health Care Trust | (HTA) | 9.84 | 11.43 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 5.03 | 78.77 | 16.16 | 17.62 | 5.80 | 1.90 | 0.00 |
LTC Property | (LTC) | 35.39 | 38.23 | 2.65 | 2.63 | 5.34 | 77.57 | 8.02 | 9.47 | -0.75 | 6.31 | 9.68 |
Med Prop Trust | (MPW) | 12.22 | 12.96 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 6.48 | 75.68 | 6.06 | 7.77 | -0.89 | -0.23 | 5.00 |
Nat'l Health Inv | (NHI) | 56.10 | 59.40 | 4.13 | 4.07 | 4.95 | 72.24 | 5.88 | 7.19 | -1.45 | 0.79 | 9.70 |
Omega Health | (OHI) | 29.80 | 34.09 | 2.73 | 2.75 | 5.75 | 71.27 | 14.40 | 16.04 | 0.73 | -3.08 | 8.89 |
Sabra Health Care | (SBRA) | 26.14 | 29.76 | 2.20 | 2.26 | 4.84 | 63.72 | 13.85 | 15.23 | 2.73 | 3.86 | 5.88 |
Senior Housing | (SNH) | 22.23 | 22.45 | 1.74 | 1.76 | 6.95 | 88.64 | 0.99 | 2.74 | 1.15 | -2.95 | 0.00 |
Universal Health | (UHT) | 40.06 | 42.56 | 2.80 | 2.83 | 5.87 | 88.34 | 6.24 | 7.80 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
Ventas | (VTR) | 57.28 | 63.15 | 4.36 | 4.37 | 4.59 | 66.36 | 10.25 | 11.51 | 0.23 | -4.00 | 8.21 |
Average | 5.56 | 77.76 | 9.75 | 11.38 | 0.60 | -0.31 | 4.66 | |||||
Dividend dates are:
AVIV: 04-11-14 | DOC: 04-24-14 | HCN: 02-19-14 | HCP: 02-24-14 | HR : 02-27-14 | HTA: 04-02-14 | LTC: monthly |
MPW: 04-10-14 | NHI: 05-08-14 | OHI: 02-17-14 | SBRA: 02-27-14 | SNH: 05-20-14 | UHT: 03-30-14 | VTR: 03-27-14 |
Historical yields for the sector:
Mar 2005: 6.99% | June: 6.09% | Sept: 6.22% | Dec: 6.73% |
Mar 2006: 6.18% | June: 6.79% | Sept: 5.85% | Dec: 5.28% |
Mar 2007: 5.33% | June: 6.24% | Sept: 5.90% | Dec: 5.77% |
Mar 2008: 5.84% | June: 6.33% | Sept: 5.25% | Dec: 6.89% |
Mar 2009: 9.11% | June: 7.88% | Sept: 6.67% | Dec: 6.31% |
Mar 2010: 6.67% | June: 6.09% | Sept: 5.62% | Dec: 5.75% |
Mar 2011: 5.48% | June: 5.64% | Sept: 6.02% | Dec: 5.34% |
Mar 2012: 5.16% | June: 4.84% | Sept: 4.89% | Dec: 4.69% |
Mar 2013: 4.66% | June: 5.09% | Sept: 5.49% | Dec: 6.02% |
Mar 2014: 5.63% | June: | Sept: | Dec: |
The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2014 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79. The DOC FFO projection fell 50%, distorting the 2013 sector ratio. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65% before the addition of the newbies. AVIV and DOC do not distort the 2014 and 2015 sector average ratios.
FFO / Share | % FFO Growth | Price/FFO | 14 FFO Range | |||||||||||||
Co. | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 14-15 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | High | Low | Range | |
AVIV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 | 1.86 | 2.05 | na | 47.62 | 10.22 | 19.84 | 13.44 | 12.20 | 193 | 152 | 22.04% | |
DOC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 1.18 | na | 265.38 | 24.21 | 51.08 | 13.98 | 11.25 | 106 | 90 | 16.84% | |
HCN | 3.13 | 3.41 | 3.51 | 3.36 | 4.03 | 4.21 | -4.27 | 19.94 | 4.47 | 18.38 | 15.33 | 14.67 | 412 | 397 | 3.72% | |
HCP | 2.19 | 2.69 | 2.76 | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3.13 | 9.06 | 0.33 | 3.64 | 13.36 | 13.32 | 12.85 | 310 | 298 | 3.97% | |
HR | 1.29 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.45 | 1.57 | 0.76 | 9.85 | 8.28 | 18.51 | 16.85 | 15.56 | 148 | 139 | 6.21% | |
HTA | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 4.92 | 14.06 | 5.48 | 17.86 | 15.66 | 14.84 | 75 | 70 | 6.85% | |
LTC | 1.88 | 2.15 | 2.26 | 2.37 | 2.63 | 2.83 | 4.87 | 10.97 | 7.60 | 16.13 | 14.54 | 13.51 | 269 | 256 | 4.94% | |
MPW | 0.66 | 0.71 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 1.18 | 6.67 | 15.63 | 6.31 | 13.50 | 11.68 | 10.98 | 114 | 104 | 9.01% | |
NHI | 2.76 | 2.88 | 3.18 | 3.55 | 4.07 | 4.27 | 11.64 | 14.65 | 4.91 | 16.73 | 14.59 | 13.91 | 418 | 396 | 5.41% | |
OHI | 1.61 | 1.89 | 2.19 | 2.53 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 15.53 | 8.70 | 1.82 | 13.47 | 12.40 | 12.18 | 279 | 270 | 3.27% | |
SBRA | 0.00 | 1.31 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 2.26 | 2.39 | 30.50 | 22.83 | 5.75 | 16.17 | 13.17 | 12.45 | 241 | 202 | 17.26% | |
SNH | 1.70 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.69 | 1.76 | 1.85 | -3.43 | 4.14 | 5.11 | 13.28 | 12.76 | 12.14 | 181 | 170 | 6.25% | |
UHT | 2.61 | 2.57 | 2.84 | 2.77 | 2.83 | 2.89 | -2.46 | 2.17 | 2.12 | 15.36 | 15.04 | 14.73 | 283 | 283 | 0.00% | |
VTR | 2.85 | 3.37 | 3.80 | 4.14 | 4.37 | 4.56 | 8.95 | 5.56 | 4.35 | 15.25 | 14.45 | 13.85 | 445 | 420 | 5.72% | |
Average | 6.89 | 31.56 | 6.73 | 18.50 | 14.08 | 13.22 | ||||||||||
Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:
Mar 2007: 15.23 | June: 13.19 | Sept: 14.18 | Dec: 14.55 |
Mar 2008: 14.17 | June: 13.27 | Sept: 15.95 | Dec: 12.38 |
Mar 2009: 9.42 | June: 10.84 | Sept: 12.61 | Dec: 13.90 |
Mar 2010: 12.61 | June: 14.10 | Sept: 15.45 | Dec: 15.41 |
Mar 2011: 15.07 | June: 14.62 | Sept: 12.91 | Dec: 14.95 |
Mar 2012: 14.21 | June: 15.25 | Sept: 15.05 | Dec: 15.82 |
Mar 2013: 17.18 | June: 15.84 | Sept: 15.21 | Dec: 16.67 |
Disclosure: I am long LTC, OHI, VTR.