Disney (Walt) Company - It Ain't No Mickey Mouse Company
Disney (DIS) is an outstanding and leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Company. It is on a Strong Hold but my Indicators are breaking down. No alarms yet.
Disney looks strong fundamentally but is beginning to look just a bit Toppy technically speaking. Mild Caution is warranted. I just completed my weekly study of all my High Profile Cyclical - Conglomerates / Entertainment.
My previously written articles on DIS (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.
My Performance for Disney can be found with detail in the table below and is well over 47% per year for the last 5 years.
Look at the Profits for DIS - Over the Years
It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.
Disney - has: a) gone UP in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?
The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!
Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on DIS. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."
Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .
( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )
You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !
More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy
The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.
My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.
A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 1.06% This is often considered a "low dividend" but the bottom line should be your objective so long as the company is considered to be - low risk.
Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance
Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.
My Current Forecast remains bright, however, as a precaution, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."! (I will be more specific upon your email request).
That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Disney (Walt) Company since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )
My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.
* Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.
* Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is on or near its highs of $85. selling for $85.
* Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.
I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for DIS !
"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."
Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Bank Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (DIS), (TWX), (CBS), (VIAB), (LMCA), (PSO), (VIA). And, more . . .
| Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com. For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog. Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated. A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience. |
Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"
Dr. Steve
DIS, TWX, CBS, VIAB, LMCA, PSO, VIA