On June 12, 2014, 2500 YRCW Jan 2016 25.00 calls traded and 2500 Jan 2016 17.50 puts traded. If a person who owned the stock sold covered calls and bought puts for protection, that person's internal return if the stock is called away at 25 and the puts expire worthless is about 9% per year.
If a person shorted the stock, shorted the puts, and bought calls for protection on the upside, the internal return if the stock is covered at 17.50 with both the puts and calls expiring worthless is about 15% per year. That 15% is the maximum return on the transaction.
At least $5 million capital was required to do all this. The potential returns are good, but not outrageously good. Getting between 9% and 15% per year over the next 19 months is a very good return, but there are plenty of transactions possible with higher returns -- and much higher risk. The person who did this does not think YRCW is enormously speculative.
Assuming that rich persons do know more, what this means is:
1 YRCW is no longer seen as enormously speculative. 2 YRCW is unlikely to go bankrupt on or before January, 2016.
The worst is over. The best is yet to come.
Disclosure: The author is long YRCW.