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Midstream MLP Stats 8-31-15

Sep. 01, 2015 7:05 AM ET2 Comments
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I have provided "price changes since the beginning of Q3-14 - which is roughly the start of the price decline in this sector - on the EPD message board at Investor Village - the link is here.

MLP Midstream 8-31-15

The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last updated on 8-22-15. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 8-28-15. Yields are based on the Q3-15 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q3-14 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q3-15 distribution to the 2015 DCF projection. The 2015 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. RGP has merged with ETP and that ticker was deleted.


Company Current Distrib/ Q3 Dist Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
Price Quarter Yield 2015 Price Pr+Dist Target DCF Dist* cagr

American Midstream Partners, LP (AMID) 14.31 0.4725 13.21 97.42 -27.40 -20.21 -40.65 -11.01 2.16 -12.50
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (BKEP) 6.20 0.1425 9.19 64.77 -6.77 -0.34 0.00 31.34 7.55 -7.69
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (BPL) 70.42 1.1625 6.60 96.27 -6.93 -2.32 0.95 -2.03 4.49 -18.18
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (BWP) 13.66 0.1000 2.93 24.54 -23.13 -21.44 -9.32 -8.43 0.00 0.00
Delek Logistics Partners, LP (DKL) 39.82 0.5500 5.52 67.48 12.26 16.92 12.24 -6.86 15.79 -10.00
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM) 28.20 0.7800 11.06 90.96 -37.93 -32.78 -35.14 0.88 2.97 -55.56
Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) 15.52 0.3160 8.14 95.04 -19.96 -15.07 -29.00 -16.35 28.46 -40.00
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP) 28.28 0.5830 8.25 108.47 -29.12 -24.74 -5.95 -2.71 5.05 -4.00
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (ENLK) 17.63 0.3850 8.74 97.47 -39.23 -35.25 -21.97 -15.05 5.48 -20.00
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) 28.11 0.3800 5.41 75.62 -22.20 -19.04 -10.29 -7.80 5.56 -13.85
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (ETP) 49.14 1.0350 8.42 88.27 -24.40 -19.62 -16.00 -3.30 8.38 13.21
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (EQM) 77.80 0.6400 3.29 59.53 -11.59 -9.41 0.75 0.70 23.08 0.00
Exterran Partners, L.P. (EXLP) 21.74 0.5675 10.44 81.07 0.51 8.38 -13.98 7.69 4.61 -46.67
Genesis Energy LP (GEL) 43.66 0.6250 5.73 79.11 2.90 7.32 -1.39 4.29 10.62 5.88
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (HEP) 34.58 0.5450 6.30 88.98 15.61 21.08 -0.58 2.51 5.83 -18.00
Kinder Morgan, Inc (KMI) 32.41 0.4800 5.92 85.71 -23.40 -20.00 -3.66 10.34 11.63 -5.88
Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. (MEP) 11.78 0.3525 11.97 109.30 -13.89 -6.16 -18.18 -19.88 8.46 -100.00
Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) 26.79 0.8125 12.13 95.59 -0.33 8.73 -10.06 -11.46 2.52 -60.00
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) 70.57 0.7400 4.19 78.51 -14.63 -11.94 -7.78 -3.33 15.62 -1.11
MPLX or Marathon LP (MPLX) 49.62 0.4400 3.55 64.47 -32.48 -30.68 -9.62 33.17 28.47 0.00
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. (MWE) 56.37 0.9200 6.53 97.87 -16.10 -12.00 -1.27 -10.26 4.55 0.00
Targa Resources Partners LP (NGLS) 30.19 0.8750 11.59 93.09 -36.95 -31.46 -33.50 -17.72 12.18 -59.46
NuStar Energy L.P. (NS) 52.18 1.0950 8.39 91.25 -9.65 -3.96 2.42 5.03 0.00 52.17
Oneok Partners, L.P. (OKS) 32.35 0.7900 9.77 115.75 -18.37 -12.39 -28.78 -18.02 3.95 -72.73
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) 36.06 0.6950 7.71 105.70 -29.75 -25.69 -27.34 -14.05 7.75 -42.86
Phillips 66 Partners L.P. (PSXP) 62.40 0.4000 2.56 74.42 -9.47 -7.73 4.35 -2.27 32.45 0.00
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (SEP) 50.94 0.6138 4.82 83.51 -10.58 -7.35 0.00 3.52 8.39 -4.76
Summit Midstream Partners, LP (SMLP) 22.04 0.5700 10.34 95.00 -42.00 -37.50 -37.54 -12.73 14.00 -35.00
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (SXL) 33.83 0.4380 5.18 78.21 -19.03 -15.88 -10.21 -8.57 20.00 3.33
TC PipeLines, LP (TCP) 53.98 0.8900 6.60 84.16 -24.22 -20.47 -8.49 2.42 5.95 11.11
Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) 52.81 0.7225 5.47 72.80 -10.26 -6.58 -4.04 12.46 17.48 0.00
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (TLP) 32.78 0.6650 8.11 76.00 4.03 10.36 -2.53 2.94 0.00 -3.57
Valero Energy Partners LP (VLP) 51.83 0.2930 2.26 48.03 22.88 24.96 13.20 43.53 25.75 0.00
Western Gas Partners LP (WES) 58.83 0.7500 5.10 92.31 -19.47 -16.39 -3.99 -9.22 15.38 -1.10
Western Refining Logistics (WNRL) 25.94 0.3650 5.63 78.49 -14.95 -11.36 -5.10 -4.62 18.51 -8.00
Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ) 39.85 0.8500 8.53 104.94 -26.48 -21.77 6.63 -15.40 51.57 -33.33

Pipeline Average 7.21 84.45 -15.62 -11.25 -23.81 -9.88 12.07
Shipping
Golar LNG Partners LP (GMLP) 19.77 0.5770 11.67 114.83 -36.53 -30.98 -12.12 -25.56 5.29 -73.33
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM) 8.84 0.4425 20.02 97.79 -13.08 -0.02 -22.96 -1.09 0.00 0.00
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (TGP) 26.59 0.7000 10.53 96.22 -38.16 -33.28 -13.58 -9.91 1.19 -33.33
Teekay Offshore Partners LP. (TOO) 17.70 0.5384 12.17 87.90 -33.93 -27.90 -44.22 2.51 0.07 -12.50

Shipping Average 13.60 99.18 -30.43 -23.05 -23.22

MidStream Average 7.85 85.92 -17.10 -12.43 -11.22

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -21.91% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -22.07% and with dividends is -19.56%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is -3.83% and with dividends is -3.38%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is -3.70% and with dividend is -3.37%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.22% & the sector average yield on Q3 distributions at 8.05% - the spread is 583 bps.
With the JNK yielding 6.02% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 203 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.53% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 252 bps

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