SAME AS IT EVER WAS
Disclosure: I am/we are long AGQ.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
HERE WE GO AGAIN. The market continues to shake higher. The gold and silver sell off seems to be over for the time being. We have been lusting (in our hearts) after AG, First Majestic Silver -- it has experienced some selling and has fallen back to our M2F oversold territory. This is not a real BUY SIGNAL -- we were stretching the definitions. Then our VIX-SS System pulled up AGQ, Ultra Silver ETF, as a BUY SIGNAL alternative.
Which is a better buy here? Well, we tested the options. AG options (Jan 19) are what I would call expensive, based on the potential return. We could buy almost 2 options (1.69) for $1000 and our VIX--SS system averages a return per trade for AG of 1.49. Not so attractive. However, AGQ calls (Jan 19) cost 8 (1.25 options per $1000) -- but the average return in our VIX-SS System is 27.95 points. Our VIX-SS trades last closer to a month -- so we don't need Jan expiration, if we want to trade this with our VIX-SS. We currently own AGQ options. We want more. The shorter-term options are much cheaper, and seem like the best values in terms of potential return.
CLOSE/ | AVG GAIN | ||
OPT PRICE | $1000 INV | POT RETURN | |
AG, First Majestic Silver | 16.34 | 1.49 | |
JAN (19) 15 calls | 5.9 | 1.694915254 | $252.54 |
AGQ, Ultra Silver | 51.59 | 27.95 | |
JAN (19) 50 calls | 8 | 1.25 | $3,493.75 |
AGQ, Ultra Silver | 51.59 | 27.95 | |
OCT (21) 50 calls | 5.3 | 1.886792453 | $5,273.58 |
AGQ, Ultra Silver | 51.59 | 27.95 | |
SEPT (30) 51 calls | 3.9 | 2.564102564 | $7,166.67 |
AGQ, Ultra Silver | 51.59 | 27.95 | |
Sept 23 1 calls | 3.6 | 2.777777778 | $7,763.89 |
Our daily Barometer reading continues to climb. We did have some deterioration in both the ST TREND and in the IT TREND -- but keep in mind some of this change may also be in Bearish Trenders falling back down into negative trends.
The BAROMETER picture continues to be bullish.
Here is a table of the TOP 20 movers and the BOTTOM 20 falls today. It is interesting, as always, to see where the strength is, and where the weakness is.
TOP 20 | ||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | ISSUE |
AXPW | 0.055 | AXION |
DAKP | 0.031 | Dakota Plains Holdings |
DRYS | 1.01 | Dry Ships Daily |
THLD | 0.779 | Threshold Pharma |
CHK | 6.2 | Chesapeake Energy |
VNR | 1.6 | Vanguard Natural Resources |
UWTI | 28.16 | * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x (NO) |
VRX | 29.19 | Valeant Pharmaceuticals |
CYTX | 2.22 | Cytori Therapeutics |
EMES | 12.4 | Emerge Energy Services |
GUSH | 88.96 | * Oil and Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NYSE:O) |
OCN | 3.26 | Ocwen Financial |
FMCC | 1.79 | Freddie Mac Daily |
MWW | 3.44 | Monster Worldwide |
UGA | 25.55 | US Gasoline ETF |
FNMA | 1.93 | Fannie Mae Daily |
GASL | 49.61 | * Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x |
JNUG | 317.4 | * Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x |
MTL | 1.8 | Mechel Open Joint Stock Company |
CWEI | 62.71 | Clayton Williams Energy |
BOTTOM 20 | ||
SYMBOL | CLOSE | ISSUE |
RUSS | 10.42 | * Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x |
SHAK | 35.8 | Shake Shack |
ERY | 12.925 | * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x |
VXX | 35.99 | VIX ETF |
SOXS | 18.12 | * Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x |
SPWR | 10.41 | Sunpower |
LODE | 0.361 | Comstock/Goldspring Mining |
FSLR | 37.52 | FIRST SOLAR |
CLF | 6.33 | Cliffs Natural Resources |
W | 37.88 | Wayfair |
GASX | 7.055 | * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x |
BCRX | 4.36 | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals |
KERX | 4.46 | Keryx Biopharm |
JDST | 3.97 | * Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x |
HDP | 8.56 | Hortonworks |
DRIP | 4.59 | * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x |
IO | 6.06 | Ion corp |
SPU | 6.94 | Skypeople Fruitjuice China |
DWTI | 69.29 | * Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x (NO) |
HAIN | 38.31 | The Hain Celestial Group |
If one has an interest in shorting, HAIN and Wells Fargo are on our short list, as is KERX. In a normal market I would be trying to keep my portfolios balanced between short and long positions.
I love the gold, silver, metals brigade now. FCX, yes. UGLD, the UP GOLD BULLISH ETF, PALL, Palladium -- I wish they offered options.
TRADES | |||
8/18/16 | |||
CLOSED | |||
VIX-SS | Long | CPHD, Cepheid | 7.24% |
VIX-SS | Long | CDNS, Cadence | 3.31% |
VIX-SS | Long | REMX, RARE Earth Metals | 1.37% |
VIX-SS | Long | ACHN, Achillon Pharma | 5.99% |
VIX-SS | Long | BRZIF, Brazilian Resources | -9.17% |
OK. Here is our report.
Column1 | Column2 | Column3 | Column4 | Column5 | Column6 | Column7 |
8/18/16 | ||||||
EMV CURRENCIES TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
Since: | ||||||
6/22/16 | 75.94% | EMV ASP NEW CURR | ||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | PROP2 | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
CNYRUB=X | 9.602 | -25 | Flat | Chinese Yuan/Russian Ruble | ||
EURRUB=X | 72.22 | -25 | Flat | Exit Short | Euro/Russian Ruble | |
INRRUB=X | 0.951 | -25 | Flat | Indian Rupee/Russian Ruble | ||
USDRUB=X | 63.604 | -25 | Flat | USDollar/Russian Ruble | ||
EURCAD=X | 1.45 | -7 | Long | Enter Long | Euro/Canadian Dollar | |
CNYINR=X | 10.088 | -3 | Flat | Exit Long | Chinese Yuan/Indian Rupee | |
EURAUD=X | 1.477 | -3 | Long | Euro/Australian Dollar | ||
VIX-5 EMV SPEAR TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
Since: | ||||||
6/29/16 | 11.48% | VIX 5 -- EMV SPEAR | ||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | PROP1 | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
DAKP | 0.031 | -17 | Short | Dakota Plains Holdings | ||
HAIN | 38.31 | -25 | Short | The Hain Celestial Group | ||
LABD | 22.5 | -19 | Short | Enter Short | * Biotech Bear 3 x | |
RIG | 10.62 | -19 | Short | Enter Short | Transocean Ltd. | |
BCRX | 4.36 | -1 | Flat | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | ||
VNR | 1.6 | -25 | Flat | Vanguard Natural Resources | ||
1128.HK | 12.3 | -3 | Long | WINN MACAW | ||
DRYS | 1.01 | 3 | Long | Dry Ships Daily | ||
LABU | 41.7 | 1 | Long | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
VIX-2 M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
Since: | ||||||
5/3/16 | 12.63% | M2F ALT NEW | ||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | PROP1 | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
HAIN | 38.31 | -25 | Short | The Hain Celestial Group | ||
VNR | 1.6 | -25 | Flat | Exit Short | Vanguard Natural Resources | |
DAKP | 0.031 | -17 | Short | Dakota Plains Holdings | ||
CYTX | 2.22 | -15 | Flat | Cytori Therapeutics | ||
FMCC | 1.79 | -15 | Flat | Freddie Mac Daily | ||
FNMA | 1.93 | -15 | Flat | Fannie Mae Daily | ||
UGA | 25.55 | -15 | Flat | US Gasoline ETF | ||
OMER | 11.54 | -7 | Flat | Omeros Corporation | ||
SHAK | 35.8 | -7 | Flat | Shake Shack | ||
BCRX | 4.36 | -1 | Flat | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | ||
LIFE | 3.37 | -1 | Long | TYR Pharma | ||
DRYS | 1.01 | 3 | Long | Dry Ships Daily | ||
THLD | 0.779 | 5 | Long | Threshold Pharma | ||
CHK | 6.2 | 7 | Long | Chesapeake Energy | ||
VIX-SS TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
Since: | ||||||
5/22/16 | 7.98% | VIX SS | ||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | PROP1 | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
NAO | 3.99 | -25 | Short | Nordic American Offshore | ||
^TYX | 2.26 | -21 | Short | Enter Short | 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD | |
DGZ | 13.13 | -21 | Short | Enter Short | Short Gold ETF Daily | |
TBT | 30.97 | -21 | Short | Enter Short | Ultrashort TBond 20+ Year Daily | |
KERX | 4.46 | -19 | Short | Enter Short | Keryx Biopharm | |
DAKP | 0.031 | -17 | Short | Dakota Plains Holdings | ||
CMP | 72.9 | -15 | Short | Compass Minerals | ||
JJG | 29.41 | -15 | Short | Enter Short | Grains ETF | |
SRS | 33.58 | -13 | Short | Short Real Estate ETF Daily | ||
TNP | 5.08 | -13 | Short | Enter Short | Tsakos Energy Navigation LTD | |
WFC | 48.53 | -13 | Short | Enter Short | Wells Fargo | |
CLF | 6.33 | -25 | Flat | Cliffs Natural Resources | ||
HAIN | 38.31 | -25 | Flat | The Hain Celestial Group | ||
VNR | 1.6 | -25 | Flat | Vanguard Natural Resources | ||
X | 21.81 | -25 | Flat | US Steel Corp | ||
^VIX | 11.42 | -25 | Flat | Exit Short | CRB Volatility Index Daily | |
UGAZ | 33.83 | -19 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
CDNS | 24.76 | -1 | Flat | Exit Long | Cadence Design Syst | |
CHRW | 68.96 | -1 | Flat | Exit Long | CH Robinson Worlwide | |
ACHN | 8.77 | -1 | Flat | Achilliion Pharma | ||
DGAZ | 7.54 | -1 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
ENDP | 22.89 | -1 | Flat | Endo Pharmaceuticals | ||
GRPN | 5.6 | -1 | Flat | Groupon INc | ||
KO | 44.1 | -1 | Flat | Coca Cola Daily | ||
REMX | 17.66 | 3 | Flat | Exit Long | Rare Earth Metals ETF | |
SNP | 73.13 | 3 | Flat | Exit Long | China Petrol & Chemical Co | |
CVX | 103.55 | 5 | Flat | Exit Long | Chevron | |
CM | 78.17 | 5 | Flat | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | ||
NMM | 1.65 | 5 | Flat | Navios Maritime Partners | ||
SSRI | 15.08 | 7 | Flat | Silver Standard Resources | ||
MTS.AX | 2.04 | -7 | Long | Enter Long | Metcash, Australia | |
IMAX | 30.25 | -7 | Long | Imax Corp | ||
MLM | 194.28 | -7 | Long | Martin Marietta | ||
NBIX | 48.01 | -7 | Long | Neurocrine Biosciences | ||
AGQ | 51.59 | -5 | Long | Enter Long | * Ultra Silver Leveraged ETF (Bullish) | |
P | 12.93 | -5 | Long | Enter Long | Pandora | |
CURE | 35.07 | -5 | Long | Enter Long | * Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | |
CLI | 27.61 | -5 | Long | Mack-Cali Realty Corp | ||
FCX | 12.23 | -5 | Long | Freeport McMoran Mining | ||
IRWD | 13.6 | -5 | Long | Ironwood Phama | ||
LXRX | 15.75 | -5 | Long | Lexicon Pharmaceutical | ||
SCHN | 19.05 | -5 | Long | Schnitzer Steel Indust | ||
ABX | 21.04 | -3 | Long | Enter Long | American Barricks Gold | |
XOMA | 0.606 | -3 | Long | Enter Long | XOMA | |
HOV | 1.79 | -3 | Long | Hovnanian Daily | ||
PALL | 68.61 | -1 | Long | Enter Long | Palladium ETF | |
FOLD | 7.01 | -1 | Long | Amicus Therapeutics | ||
XME | 27.93 | -1 | Long | Spider Mining Metals ETF | ||
UGLD | 14.16 | 3 | Long | Enter Long | * GOLD ETN BULLISH 3X (NO) | |
ICPT | 168.87 | 17 | Long | Intercept Pharma |
MJC, CGTS