Thu, Jul. 30, 7:05 PM
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) plans to unveil a next-gen Apple TV set-top in September "at the same event at which it typically unveils its new iPhones," reports BuzzFeed's John Paczkowski. He previously reported Apple planned to show off the device in June at WWDC, but (along with others) later stated the launch had been postponed to fix lingering issues.
- Apple's much-rumored Web TV service reportedly isn't expected to be announced at the same time. Re/code's Peter Kafka reported in June the service might launch in late 2015, or in 2016, as negotiations with TV channel owners continue.
- As previously indicated, the next Apple TV is said to run on an A8 CPU, provide a storage upgrade, support the App Store and Siri, and come with a developer SDK. Paczkowski also states it will have a "refreshed and slimmer chassis," and a remote with touchpad input.
- The current-gen Apple TV (launched in 2012) saw its price cut by $30 earlier this year to $69. 25M+ Apple TV units have been sold over the product's lifetime.
- Previously: Apple reportedly shelved plans to launch a TV set
Mon, Jul. 27, 6:57 PM
- Some of the biggest and best known U.S. businesses join the Obama administration in trying to build momentum for a deal at the climate change summit in Paris later this year.
- A dozen publicly traded companies - AA, AAPL, MSFT, BAC, BRK.B, KO, GM, GS, GOOG, PEP, UPS and WMT - committed to support a “strong" outcome in Paris, and made new pledges to take a variety of steps to tackle climate change.
- For example, Alcoa says it will reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. by 50% by 2025, and BRK plans to retire 75% of its coal-fueled generating capacity in Nevada by 2019.
- In addition to company-specific goals, the White House says today's announcements total at least $140B in new low-carbon investment and more than 1,600 MW of new renewable energy.
Mon, Jul. 27, 1:55 AM
- The Apple Watch (NASDAQ:AAPL) will be available at more than 100 Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) stores in the U.S. starting in August, and more than 300 locations before the holiday season, marking the first time the watch will be sold outside of the Apple retail store.
- During its earnings announcement last week, CEO Tim Cook said the Watch was selling better than expected, but didn't say how many the company had sold or what its projections were.
Wed, Jul. 22, 12:15 PM
- Cowen has downgraded Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to Market Perform after the company beat FQ3 estimates, offered light FQ4 guidance, and reported slightly below-consensus iPhone sales. Others on the Street are reiterating their existing ratings (largely bullish).
- Upbeat on Monday, Cowen's Tim Arcuri now thinks "evidence of a widespread demand reset from China is mounting." He cites not only FQ3 iPhone sales, but also Chinese auto sales figures and results from multiple chipmakers. In addition, Arcuri states field work suggests new iPhone builds are down relative to the past cycle for the first time. "[W]hile we are very bullish about AAPL’s ability to tap into a much broader and deeper demand opportunity for a price-reduced 6/6+ than prior 'old' models, this is a different narrative."
- UBS' Steve Milunovich (Buy): "Our call that the phone ASP would be $660 was correct but we overestimated units, especially with channel inventory declining ... Despite seasonally low iPhone units, we believe Apple is building long-term value and maintain our $150 price target. Also, it is unclear if Sep guidance includes 6s sales to China, which were delayed into October last year.”
- Canaccord's Mike Walkley (Buy): "[W]e believe the current iPhone 6 and upcoming iPhone 6s should continue to post strong sales and high-end smartphone market share gains ... with only 27% of the iPhone installed base having upgraded to the iPhone 6/6 Plus devices by [FQ3], we anticipate continued strong replacement sales through 2015."
- "As Apple has become the 'gold standard' of technology, it is held to a higher standard," argues FBR's Daniel Ives (Outperform). With Greater China revenue up 112% Y/Y in FQ3, he considers China concerns overblown, but wants to see more transparency regarding Watch sales.
- Prior Apple coverage, CC transcript
Wed, Jul. 22, 9:16 AM
Tue, Jul. 21, 6:53 PM
- Apple Watch (NASDAQ:AAPL) accounted for well over 100% of the $952M in annual revenue growth seen by Apple's Other Products segment in FQ3, CFO Luca Maestri mentioned on the earnings call. Bloomberg observes Maestri's remarks point to 1.9M+ Watch sales, if one assumes a $499 ASP. (live blogs: WSJ, BI)
- Tim Cook stated Watch sales were higher in June than in April or May. He once more declined to provide specific Watch revenue/unit figures, while asserting Apple has chosen not to do so to keep info out of competitors' hands.
- He also once more defends the iPad (units -18% Y/Y to 10.9M), estimating Apple has 76% of the market for $200+ tablets and stating customer sell-through (11.2M) was better than sell-in thanks to a 300K-unit drop in channel inventories.
- The iPhone (units +35% to 47.5M, but below a ~49M consensus) saw channel inventories fall by 600K Q/Q, bringing them to the low end of Apple's 5-7 week target range. Greater China iPhone sales were up 87% Y/Y and Mac sales 33%. 27% of iPhone users are said to have upgraded to a 6/6+.
- Also: 1) A strong dollar had an 8% impact on revenue growth, and a $24 impact on iPhone ASP; the latter was still up $99 Y/Y, thanks in part to the 6+. 2) 89% of Apple's cash balance is offshore. 3) The retail store count is up to 456 (190 outside the U.S.). 4) 8,500 third-party Watch apps are now available.
- AAPL -6.6% AH to $122.16.
- FQ3 results/FQ4 guidance, details
Tue, Jul. 21, 5:40 PM
Tue, Jul. 21, 4:59 PM
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) had an FQ3 gross margin of 39.7%, +30 bps Y/Y and above a 38.5%-39.5% guidance range. FQ4 GM guidance is also at 38.5%-39.5%.
- Product line performance: iPhone revenue (63% of total revenue) +59% Y/Y to $31.4B; units +35%. iPad revenue -23% to $4.5B; units -18%. Mac revenue +9% to $6B; units +9%. Services (iTunes, App Store, AppleCare, Apple Pay, etc.) +12% to $5B. Other products (Apple Watch, iPod, Beats, accessories, etc.) +49% to $2.6B.
- Regional performance: Americas revenue +15% Y/Y to $20.2B. Europe +19% to $10.3B. Greater China +112% to $13.2B. Japan +9% to $2.9B. Rest of Asia-Pac +26% to $3B. International markets made up 64% of revenue vs. 69% in FQ2.
- ASPs: iPhone ASP was $660 vs. $659 in FQ2 and $687 in FQ1. iPad ASP was $415 vs. $430 in FQ2 and $419 in FQ1. Mac ASP was $1,257 vs. $1,231 in FQ2 and $1,258 in FQ1.
- Financials: GAAP SG&A spend rose 25% Y/Y to $3.56B; R&D spend rose 27% to $2.03B. $10B was spent on buybacks, up from FQ2's $7B. Apple ended FQ3 with nearly $203B in cash/investments (much of it offshore), and over $47B in debt.
- Apple has declared its regular quarterly dividend of $0.52/share. The next dividend is payable on Aug. 13 to shareholders on record as of Aug. 10.
- Shares have fallen to $121.60 in AH trading. Earnings call starts at 5PM ET (webcast).
- FQ3 results/FQ4 guidance, PR
Tue, Jul. 21, 4:35 PM
Tue, Jul. 21, 4:33 PM| Tue, Jul. 21, 4:33 PM | 253 Comments
Mon, Jul. 20, 5:30 PM
Mon, Jul. 20, 2:16 PM
- Piper, Cantor, and Cowen have each released upbeat notes ahead of Tuesday afternoon's FQ3 report. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has risen to its highest levels since May 26, and is less than $2.50 away from an April 28 high of $134.54. The Nasdaq is up 0.3%.
- Piper's Gene Munster, bullish as ever, forecasts FQ3 EPS of $1.82, revenue of $50B, and iPhone sales of 49M-50M (moderately above consensus). "To put 49 million in perspective, it would imply 39% y/y unit growth vs the Mar-15 quarter of 38% excluding 1 million in channel fill ... This acceleration reflects iPhone gaining share at the high-end of the market, a trend that we expect to continue throughout 2015." He expects 17% iPhone unit growth for the whole of 2015, and flat growth in 2016.
- Cantor's Brian White: "During our Taiwan trip in early June, many of our contacts highlighted weak trend across the smartphone and notebook markets; however, we walked away pleased the tone for iPhones and Macs relative to our expectations ... we are raising our iPhone unit estimate to 48.5 million from 46.25 million ... but lowering our iPad projection to 9.5 million from 10.9 million units ... We are maintaining our Mac shipment forecast at 4.93 million units but increasing our Mac forecast for the September quarter."
- Cowen's Tim Arcuri: "We model iPhone units 50MM (incl. 28MM 6 and 13MM 6+), above Street which seems 48-49MM. We raised ests in June ... but still see upward bias given 1) our latest field work suggesting ongoing cuts to supply chain for iPhone’s high-end competition (e.g. Samsung Galaxy S6); 2) recent Cowen survey data showing increased iPhone penetration growth and meaningful future loyalty at key U.S. operators ... and 3) China sales which remain strong despite demand and stock market uncertainties."
- Wells Fargo's Maynard Um has also hiked his estimates, albeit while maintaining a Market Perform rating. "We think [iPhone] unit upside could be driven by the 25 carriers added in the quarter ... as well as purposely building indirect channel inventory (ended last quarter at the low end of its 5-7 week target) ... We believe gross margin upside in this S-cycle may be offset by increased bill of materials and potential pricing actions at the lower end."
- Separately, research firm Wristly states a survey of Apple Watch owners found 66% were "very satisfied/delighted" with the device, and that 31% were "somewhat satisfied" with it.
- A week ago: SocGen upgrades Apple, hikes FQ3 iPhone estimates
Tue, Jul. 14, 6:22 AM
- Apple Pay, the contactless payment service, will launch in the U.K. today, marking the first time the "tap-and-pay" system will be available outside the U.S.
- Many major brands and most big banks have signed up to support the offering, with more than 250,000 locations - ranging from subway stations to supermarkets - ready to accept the service.
- Next steps: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is reportedly working on extending Apple Pay to China, South Korea and Canada.
Mon, Jul. 13, 11:03 AM
- A little over three months after downgrading to Hold - shares were at $125.49 at the time - SocGen's Andy Perkins has upgraded Apple (AAPL +1.1%) back to Buy, while keeping his target at $140. Shares are following markets higher.
- Ahead of Apple's July 21 FQ3 report, Perkins has hiked his FQ3 iPhone sales estimate by 5M units to 48M. His revenue and EPS estimates for the quarter are respectively at $50.2B and $1.84, above a consensus of $49B and $1.78.
- Discussing recent Chinese concerns, Perkins admits "any slowdown in the Chinese economy, whether or not stemming from the recent stock market turmoil, could have an adverse impact." He adds SocGen hasn't "factored in any slowdown in [Chinese] iPhone sales," and thinks nearly a third of FQ3 iPhone sales came from China.
- Regarding Apple Watch, Perkins states SocGen's data "suggests an encouraging start for the new product," while cautioning the firm is "finding it difficult to find corroborating evidence to support our figures." The data points to 5M FQ3 Watch sales, 8M FY15 sales, and 19M FY16 sales. With FQ3 ASP estimated to be near $500, Perkins forecasts quarterly Watch revenue of ~$2.5B.
- Separately, Digitimes - historically better at providing supply chain data than launch dates - reports suppliers are expected to begin shipping components for the rumored 12.9" iPad in late September, and that the tablet is expected to become available after mid-November.
- Apple is said to be "rather cautious about placing related orders." In June, the company unveiled iPad multitasking features (will arrive via iOS 9) that would work well with a 12.9" iPad.
Mon, Jul. 13, 2:58 AM
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) grabbed 92% of the operating profit of the world's top eight smartphone companies in Q1, financial firm Canaccord Genuity calculates, up from 65% a year earlier.
- Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) took 15% in this year's period.
- The reason why Apple and Samsung earned over 100% combined is because some rivals only broke even or lost money.
- Apple's dominance of profit share comes despite the company selling under 20% of smartphones and because its devices are much more expensive than those of its competitors.
- The story is similar in the PC industry, although not as extreme. Apple enjoyed over half of industry profits last year despite its Mac line taking a market share of just 6%, Bernstein Research estimates.
Thu, Jul. 9, 10:02 PM
- IDC estimates global PC shipments tumbled to 66.1M in Q2, falling at a sharper Y/Y clip than Q1's 6.7% and about 1% faster than expected. Gartner is slightly less harsh, estimating shipments fell 9.5% to 68.4M.
- Factors blamed for the decline: Inventory reductions ahead of the Windows 10 launch (set for July 29), a strong dollar (has led to higher overseas prices), and tough Y/Y comps caused by the 2014 boost in business PC sales caused by the end of Windows XP support. With tablet sales under pressure as well, tablet cannibalization is less of a factor than before ... but rising smartphone/tablet usage still appears to be taking a toll on PC upgrade rates.
- Gartner sees full-year shipments falling 4.4%. IDC still expects low-to-mid single-digit declines in 2H15, before volumes stabilize in future years. It sees the Windows 10 launch going "relatively well," but cautions Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) decision to provide free upgrades to Windows 7/8 users will limit its impact on PC sales.
- Continuing a recent trend, market leaders grabbed share from smaller rivals. IDC estimates #1 Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share rose to 20.3% from 19.4% a year ago, #2 HP's (NYSE:HPQ) to 18.5% from 18.2%, and #3 Dell's to 14.5% from 14%. Acer (OTC:ASIYF) and Asus (OTC:AKCPF) are respectively given 6.6% and 6.5% shares
- Curiously, IDC has Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranked #4 globally, with its share rising to 7.8% from 5.9% via 5.1M Mac shipments (could imply a 15%+ revenue share), but Gartner doesn't have the company in its top-5. IDC and Gartner respectively assign Apple 13.5% and 12.7% U.S. shares. In the past, IDC's Mac shipment estimates have been notably different from the quarterly figures Apple would later report.
- Near-term expectations for PC sales are already quite low, following Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) Q1 warning, AMD's Q2 warning, Micron's (NASDAQ:MU) June 25 results/guidance, and plenty of other negative news. Intel's Q2 report arrives on July 15.
- Other PC industry names: NVDA, STX, WDC, HTCH
Apple Inc designs, manufactures, & markets mobile communication & media devices, personal computers, & portable digital music players, & sells a variety of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, & third-party digital content.
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