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Nov. 20, 2014, 2:42 PM
- Jefferies' Jason North has slashed his 3D Systems (DDD -1.8%) target by $4 to $42, albeit while reiterating Buy. Citing execution concerns caused by the company's recent woes, he now assigns 3D a 2016E EV/sales multiple (3.5x) that's 20% below that of peers vs. a prior 10%.
- Meanwhile, North suggests 3D printer/platform launches from the likes of H-P, Autodesk (ADSK -0.9%), and IPG Photonics (IPGP +1.7%) pose challenges for established vendors, albeit not immediately. "After speaking to most of them, we think they could grow to become major 3D printing players but see little overall impact for the next two years."
- North observes Autodesk wants its open-source Spark 3D printing software platform to become an industry standard. However, he sees it mostly being used in low-end devices initially. The CAD software giant's FQ3 report arrives after the bell.
- IPG, currently a top supplier of lasers for metal 3D printers, is working on a powder-feed printer for creating large parts. North doesn't expect a launch before 2017.
- 3D printing stocks sold off last month after H-P unveiled its Multi Jet Fusion 3D printing tech; broad availability isn't expected until 2016. At the time, UBS argued 3D Systems is more at risk than Stratasys (SSYS -1.3%), given H-P's process is "somewhat like 3D Systems' Z Corp binder jetting MJM process more than Stratasys’ Polyjet."
Nov. 19, 2014, 5:35 PM
Oct. 30, 2014, 2:47 PM
- Autodesk's (ADSK +2.4%) Spark Investment Fund will invest $100M over the next several years in "entrepreneurs, startups and researchers who push the boundaries of 3D printing technology."
- The announcement follows the May launch of Autodesk's Spark open-source 3D printing software platform, along with a reference printer design that's also being open-sourced.
- Growing 3D printing adoption boosts sales of Autodesk's CAD/CAM software (definitely not open-source), which is widely used to design 3D-printed objects.
- Yesterday, H-P provided details about its planned entry into the 3D printer market.
Oct. 2, 2014, 10:01 AM
- Citi, Credit Suisse, Cowen, and Morgan Stanley have upgraded Autodesk (ADSK +4.1%) following its investor day. Shares are making fresh highs.
- The main catalyst: Autodesk disclosed it will stop selling up-front licenses in 12-24 months to further migrate its base to cloud/subscription-based services. Adobe made a similar move last year (in part to combat piracy), and the results have been solid thus far. Autodesk had 1.94M subscribers at the end of July, and has guided for 200K-250K FY15 subscriber adds.
- Credit Suisse, which has also upped its target by $20 to $70: "We believe that several significant changes to its business model will result in meaningful long-term upside to revenue (at limited incremental cost) and, therefore, operating profitability that is not reflected in consensus estimates or the stock's valuation."
- Autodesk also guided for a 12% billings CAGR from FY14-18, and that its value/account and subscriptions would respectively rise 20% and 50% over this time. The company hopes to get over 70% of its revenue from recurring streams by FY18, and to grow its op. margin to 30%. FY15 op. margin guidance is at 15%-16%.
- Investor day slides
- Yesterday: Autodesk names CFO, reiterates FY15 guidance
Oct. 1, 2014, 9:17 AM
- In tandem with the hosting of its investor day, Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) has named Scott Herren, formerly Citrix Systems' finance SVP, its new CFO, effective Nov. 1. Herren's hiring follows ex-CFO Mark Hawkins' departure for Salesforce.
- The CAD software giant is also reiterating its FQ3 and FY15 (ends Jan. '15) guidance.
Aug. 15, 2014, 1:27 PM
- Up sharply at first in response to its FQ2 beat and FY15 guidance hike, Autodesk (ADSK -4.6%) has reversed course. Volume is already over 5x the daily average.
- Citi, which is reiterating a Sell, notes license revenue growth is being fueled by upgrades rather than new licenses, as customers take advantage of a promotion that ends in FY15. It also isn't impressed with Autodesk's (raised) guidance for 200K-250K FY15 subscriber adds, given it added ~250K in FY13 with less help from promotions.
- On the other hand, RBC (Outperform) calls Autodesk's numbers "very strong," and thinks improving macro conditions are helping. It admits FY16 sub growth remains a question mark, but argues new maintenance adds, cloud growth, and the potential ending of perpetual license sales can provide a boost.
- Pac Crest (Outperform) is upbeat: It observes FQ2 sub adds of 74K blew away expectations of 32K, and is pleased with CC remarks (transcript) indicating Autodesk's cloud offerings are reeling in new customers, and that the company sees as much as a 20% increase in total contract value when existing customers migrate to the cloud.
Aug. 14, 2014, 5:35 PM
Aug. 14, 2014, 4:58 PM
- Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) expects FQ3 revenue of $590M-$605M and EPS of $0.17-$0.23 vs. a consensus of $588.2M and $0.28. As is the case with Adobe, Nuance, and others, near-term EPS is pressured by a shift from licenses to subscriptions (leads revenue recognition to be deferred).
- Autodesk's FY15 (ends Jan. '15) billings and revenue growth guidance ranges have respectively been hiked to 10%-12% and 7%-9% from 7%-9% and 4%-6%. Subscriber add guidance has been hiked by 50K to 200K-250K.
- FQ2 results trounced estimates on the back of a 27% Y/Y increase in billings - that's sharply above FQ1's 10%. Subscriptions grew by 74K to 2.01M, and the deferred revenue balance rose 2% Q/Q and 22% Y/Y to $981M.
- Americas revenue +11% Y/Y to $223M; EMEA +21% to $244M; Asia-Pac +8% to $170M.
- Driving growth: Architecture, engineering, & construction sales rose 23% Y/Y to $218M, and manufacturing sales rose 17% to $168M. Platform solutions/emerging business revenue rose 5% to $208M, and media/entertainment was flat at $44M.
- GAAP opex +22% to $499.3M, with big growth in both sales/marketing and R&D spend. 1.9M shares were repurchased.
- FQ2 results, PR
Aug. 14, 2014, 4:02 PM
- Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK): Q2 EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.07.
- Revenue of $637M (+13.4% Y/Y) beats by $33.84M.
- Shares +7.3%.
Aug. 13, 2014, 5:35 PM
Jun. 30, 2014, 4:43 PM
- Mark Hawkins, Autodesk's (ADSK) CFO since '09, is leaving at the end of July to become Salesforce's (CRM) CFO. Hawkins will replace Graham Smith, who announced plans to retire in February.
- Separately, Autodesk says it now expects FQ2 revenue and EPS to be "at or above" the high end of prior guidance ranges of $595M-$610M and $0.25-$0.30. Consensus is at $600.2M and $0.28.
- The CAD software giant is reiterating its FY15 guidance. It has launched "a selection process" to find a new CFO. Shares -1% AH.
Jun. 18, 2014, 11:47 AM
- Adobe beat May quarter estimates on the back of better-than-expected Creative Cloud subscriber growth, and also hiked its FY14 sub growth forecast. All of that is going over well with Autodesk (ADSK +3.8%) investors.
- Autodesk's 3ds Max (3D modeling/rendering) and Maya (3D animation) software targets many of the same media/publishing firms Adobe sells Creative Cloud to. Moreover, Autodesk is undergoing a similar transition towards cloud/subscription-based revenue streams.
- Previous: Autodesk buys 3D game engine developer
Jun. 9, 2014, 1:40 PM
- Autodesk (ADSK -0.7%) has bought Bitsquid, the Swedish creator of a 3D game engine used by multiple console/PC game developers. Terms are undisclosed.
- Autodesk says it'll use Bitsquid's engine to "supercharge its portfolio of tools for game makers through the development of a new 3D game engine," as well as to "create new tools that push the limits of real-time 3D visualization for architects and designers."
- The company goes as far as to say the deal will "revolutionize real-time exploration of complex data" for CAD projects. "Imagine being able to walk through and explore any type of design, from buildings to cars, with the same freedom you experience in the open world of a next-generation console game."
- The purchase comes as the gaming industry's E3 conference gets underway. Autodesk already sells its Maya animation software and 3ds Max modeling/rendering software to game developers.
- Past acquisitions: Creative Market, Circuits.io, Delcam
May 16, 2014, 5:37 PM
May 16, 2014, 9:17 AM
May 15, 2014, 5:10 PM
- Autodesk (ADSK) expects FQ2 revenue of $595M-$610M and EPS of $0.25-$0.30 vs. a consensus of $576.3M and $0.28.
- Moreover, the company is hiking its respective FY15 (ends Jan. '15) billings and revenue growth guidance ranges to 7%-9% and 4%-6% from prior ranges of 5%-8% and 3%-5%. The revenue growth consensus is currently at 3.7%.
- Billings, which (unlike revenue) take into account deferred revenue tied to cloud subscriptions, grew 10% Y/Y in FQ1, easily outpacing rev. growth of 4%. Subscriptions rose by 89K Q/Q to 1.94M, and the deferred revenue balance by 7% Q/Q and 13% Y/Y to $964M.
- Subscription revenue accounted for 47% of revenue vs. 45% in FQ4. Opex rose 12% Y/Y to $471.6M.
- Americas sales +2% Y/Y, EMEA +4%, Asia-Pac +6%. Architecture, Engineering, and Construction was a strong point (sales +14%), and Media & Entertainment a weak point (-19%).
- FQ1 results, PR
Other News & PR