• Thu, Jan. 12, 4:03 PM
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.18/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 11.45%
    • Payable Feb. 8; for shareholders of record Jan. 31; ex-div Jan. 27.
    Thu, Jan. 12, 4:03 PM | 16 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2016, 5:38 PM
    • Top gainers, as of 5:15 p.m.: MT +4.3%. DCIX +2.2%. KGC +2.0%.
    • Top losers, as of 5:15 p.m.: NVS -6.9%. AGNC -1.4%.
    Dec. 16, 2016, 5:38 PM | 5 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2016, 3:19 PM
    • The iShares FTSE Nareit Mortgage REIT ETF (REM +2.1%) is nicely ahead this session, but sill down more than 3% on the week.
    • This week, of course, included the expected Fed rate hike, but the unexpectedly hawkish guidance for 2017. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged all the way to 2.60%, and the two-year yield - at 0.6% just five months ago - flew all the way to 1.26%.
    • Also hurting this week was a big decline in book value in November at AGNC Investment (AGNC +1.7%) - a bellwether of sorts for agency mREITs.
    • Other movers today: Annaly Capital (NLY +2.8%), Armour (ARR +1.3%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.1%), CYS Investments (CYS +3.7%), Invesco (IVR +3.6%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +3.4%), MFA Financial (MFA +2.1%), Western Asset (WMC +3.2%), Anworth (ANH +2.9%), Dynex (DX +2.6%).
    • ETFs: MORL, MORT
    • Previously: Late-week bounce for REITs (Dec. 16)
    Dec. 16, 2016, 3:19 PM | 13 Comments
  • Dec. 15, 2016, 7:22 AM
    • It's no surprise that AGNC's book value declined in November given the huge jump in interest rates that month, but the near-9% tumble in book since the end of Q3 was more than double the estimate of KBW's Bose George.
    • Maybe putting a bigger shudder through the rest of the sector, AGNC is among the better-hedged players, says George, and thus one of the companies better-positioned to withstand a rising rate environment.
    • Also on mREIT (NYSEARCA:REM) investors' minds was yesterday's Fed meeting - the Fed Funds rate was boosted as anticipated, but the median forecast for next year was lifted to three rate hikes vs. two previously.
    • BAML bails, downgrading AGNC to Underperform from Neutral. The $16 price target compares to yesterday's close of $17.89. Shares -1.9% premarket to $17.55.
    • Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) is also downgraded to Underperform at BAML, and is off 0.8% premarket (Annaly and pretty much all of the rest of the sector do not report book value on a monthly basis, so investors will wait in suspense until Q4 results next year).
    • Other ETFs: MORL, MORT
    • Previously: Big drop in book value for AGNC Investment (Dec. 14)
    Dec. 15, 2016, 7:22 AM | 26 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2016, 4:41 PM
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.18/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 12.07%
    • Payable Jan. 9; for shareholders of record Dec. 30; ex-div Dec. 28.
    Dec. 14, 2016, 4:41 PM | 7 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2016, 4:11 PM
    • Alongside declaration of its $0.18 monthly dividend, AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) announces end of November book value per share of $20.97 and tangible book value per share of $19.29.
    • That's a whopping 7.3% decline in book value in November (and 7.9% in tangible book), though not unexpected given the big jump in bond yields.
    • Today's close of $17.89 is a 14.7% discount to book, and a 7.3% discount to tangible book.
    • To review, AGNC's tangible book value excludes intangible assets associated with the purchase of its management company this summer.
    Dec. 14, 2016, 4:11 PM | 18 Comments
  • Dec. 13, 2016, 2:08 PM
    • KBW's Bose George now sees five Fed rate hikes by the end of 2018 vs. his previous estimate of just one. He lowers his sector (REM -1.3%) estimates by 4% for 2017 and 2018.
    • Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform are CYS Investments (CYS -2.5%), and Invesco Mortgage (IVR -3.9%).
    • Annaly (NLY -1.2%), AGNC Investment (AGNC -1.1%), MTGE Investment (MTGE -2.6%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -2.2%), Capstead (CMO -2.5%), Western Asset (WMC -2.6%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.3%)
    • ETFs: MORT, MORL
    Dec. 13, 2016, 2:08 PM | 51 Comments
  • Dec. 2, 2016, 7:31 AM
    • The risk/reward on AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) is no longer compelling at current levels," says Douglas Harter, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform, and cutting the price target to $19.50 from $21 (last night's close $18.09).
    • He expects a whopping 7.8% decline in book value through November (to be announced on Dec. 12). This comes against his forecast of a 2.6% decrease in book value for the sector (NYSEARCA:REM) as a whole, and flat economic return (defined as the change in book value plus the dividend) for Q4.
    • As far as AGNC's relative valuation at the moment, it trades for 91% of tangible book vs. just 84% for fellow sector giant Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY). The sector as a whole trades at 91% of book. He's also cutting Annaly's PT to $11 from $11.50, along with CYS Investment (NYSE:CYS) to $8.50 from $9. Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM), however, gets its PT boosted to $17 from $15.50 to reflect strong incremental returns.
    • Harter and team's top picks remain those names with less exposure to interest rate risk, better historical track records, and lower book value volatility: Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO), New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), PennyMac (NYSE:PMT), and Starwood (NYSE:STWD).
    Dec. 2, 2016, 7:31 AM | 42 Comments
  • Dec. 1, 2016, 5:37 PM
    Dec. 1, 2016, 5:37 PM | 5 Comments
  • Nov. 29, 2016, 2:31 PM
    • Though lagging the S&P 500 by about 100 basis points since the election (and the banks by a mile), the mortgage REITs are nevertheless higher since the election despite the sharp rise in interest rates.
    • Mortgage REITs are carry players, of course, and can expect to see boosts to income if long rates rise faster than short rates (though book value could take a hit).
    • The iShares FTSE Nareit Mortgage REIT ETF (REM +1.2%) today is outperforming the S&P 500's 0.35% advance. The 10-year Treasury yield is down five basis points to 2.30%.
    • Annaly (NLY +1%), AGNC Investment (AGNC +1.7%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.9%), Chimera (CIM +2.1%), CYS Investments (CYS +2%), Invesco (IVR +1.5%), Capstead (CMO +1.5%), Western Asset (WMC +1.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT +2.7%)
    • ETFs: MORT, MORL
    Nov. 29, 2016, 2:31 PM | 50 Comments
  • Nov. 14, 2016, 4:39 PM
    • AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.18/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 11.32%
    • Payable Dec. 8; for shareholders of record Nov. 30; ex-div Nov. 28.
    Nov. 14, 2016, 4:39 PM | 2 Comments
  • Nov. 14, 2016, 4:08 PM
    • Alongside declaration of its $0.18 monthly dividend, AGNC Investment announces Oct. 31 book value per share of $22.63 and estimated net tangible book value per share of $20.95 (tangible book excludes intangible assets on the books as part of the purchase of the management company). AGNC closed today at $19.08.
    • Thirty days earlier, BVPS was $22.91 and TBVPS was $21.23.
    Nov. 14, 2016, 4:08 PM | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2016, 10:42 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is making new bear-cycle highs today, up another seven basis points to 1.86% - its perkiest level since May. The move up in yields is global, with U.K. 10-years up 11 bps and Germany's up 8.5 bps.
    • Earlier today, the U.K. reported Q3 GDP growth of 0.5% - far better than what had been predicted post-Brexit.
    • Facing at least a little more competition in the yield department, equity REITs have turned sharply lower, with VNQ down 2.1%, and IYR off 1.8%. Mortgage REITs (REM -0.6%) are faring a little better as solid Q3 earnings begin to roll in.
    • The major U.S. averages have given up early gains and turned red, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both off 0.25%.
    • Individual equity REITs: Verreit (VER -2.2%), Welltower (HCN -2.4%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.6%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -3.2%), Simon Property (SPG -3.2%), General Growth (GGP -2.6%), Public Storage (PSA -2.9%), Gramercy Property (GPT -1.9%), Washington Real Estate (WRE -1.2%), Hersha (HT -2.9%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO -1.4%), Stag Industrial (STAG -2%)
    • Mortgage REITs: AGNC Investment (AGNC -1.5%), Annaly (NLY -0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.4%), Capstead (CMO +0.3%)
    • ETFs: VNQ, IYR, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX, RORE
    Oct. 27, 2016, 10:42 AM | 42 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2016, 4:11 PM
    • Q3 net spread and dollar roll income of $0.64 per share vs. $0.56 earned in Q2. Dividends of $0.56 during quarter.
    • Net book value per share of $22.91 up from $22.22 three months earlier. Today's close of $19.84 is a 13.4% discount to Sept. 30 book. Tangible book value per share of $21.23 excludes $1.68 of goodwill and other intangible assets recognized as part of the company's purchase of its management company.
    • Economic return for the quarter of 5.6%, or 22.4% annualized.
    • CIO Gary Kain notes the quarter's strong performance was boosted by the recent internalization of management, which meant a big cut in operating expenses.
    • Previously: AGNC Investment beats by $0.09 (Oct. 24)
    • AGNC +1.5% in thin after hours trading.
    Oct. 24, 2016, 4:11 PM | 8 Comments
  • Oct. 24, 2016, 4:02 PM
    Oct. 24, 2016, 4:02 PM | 6 Comments
  • Oct. 23, 2016, 5:35 PM
    Oct. 23, 2016, 5:35 PM | 2 Comments