American Capital Agency Corp.
 (AGNC)

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  • Wed, Feb. 3, 3:01 PM
    • Today's gains are being led by Arlington Asset (AI +7.3%) (not a REIT, but in the business) after it posted its first quarterly increase in book value in six quarters last night.
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.7%) reported earlier this week, and Nomura's Brock Vandervliet notes three positives from yesterday's earnings call (transcript): 1) More buybacks are coming; 2) Green shoots are apparent in the MBS market; 3) Book value should remain stable from here (it rose a bit in the year's final month, though dipped for the quarter).
    • He does slightly adjust downward his earnings estimates - by a penny in Q1 to $0.54 per share, and by two cents for the full year. He expects the $0.60 dividend is safe through H1, but there is some risk there.
    • Annaly (NLY +0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.9%), CYS (CYS +2.6%), Hatteras (HTS +1.9%), Capstead (CMO +2.2%), Dynex (DX +2.2%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Arlington Asset posts Q4 book value gain (Feb. 2)
    • Previously: American Capital Agency higher post-earnings (Feb. 2)
    | Wed, Feb. 3, 3:01 PM | 22 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 2, 11:33 AM
    • "We believe the Fed will be forced to abandon its 'tightening bias' before the end of 2016," says American Capital Agency (AGNC +2.3%) , talking about the 2016 outlook in its earnings presentation. The statement is less bold than it seems given last week's dovish FOMC statement.
    • With "lower for longer" maybe about to emerge as the accepted rates theme, levered buyers of MBS today could be setting themselves for nice returns, says the company.
    • "We believe the mortgage REIT space is significantly mispriced as the fundamental value of underlying investments has improved."
    • Along with a more benign rate environment, other catalysts include a funding market which has already repriced to reflect new regulatory requirements, and now-wide spreads becoming less so.
    • Previously: American Capital Agency manages positive return in Q4 (Feb. 1)
    | Tue, Feb. 2, 11:33 AM
  • Mon, Feb. 1, 4:14 PM
    • Q4 net spread and dollar roll income of $0.54 per share up from $0.51 in Q3. Dividend quarterly run rate is $0.60.
    • End-of-year book value per share of $22.59 slips from $23 three months earlier. Today's close of $16.90 puts the stock at a 25% discount to book. The dividend less the drop in book value yields a positive economic return of 0.8% for the quarter, or 3.3% annualized. Q3 saw a 6.6% negative annualized economic return.
    • 9M shares repurchased during Q at an average price of $17.88 each. "The current price-to-book discounts across the mortgage REIT space are not consistent with the improving fundamental landscape for investors in agency MBS," says CEO Malon Wilkus.
    • Net interest spread of 1.47% up from 1.14% in Q3. CPR of 9.5% down from 12.4%.
    • Conference call tomorrow at 11 ET
    • Previously: American Capital Agency misses by $0.03 (Feb. 1)
    • AGNC +0.2% after hours
    | Mon, Feb. 1, 4:14 PM | 12 Comments
  • Mon, Feb. 1, 4:09 PM
    | Mon, Feb. 1, 4:09 PM | 6 Comments
  • Sun, Jan. 31, 5:35 PM
    | Sun, Jan. 31, 5:35 PM | 7 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 26, 10:58 AM
    • Mortgage REIT valuations "appear untethered from traditional metrics," says the JPMorgan team, led by Richard Shane, in its upgrade of MFA Financial (MFA +2.2%). Not upgraded today, but also with Overweight ratings are American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%), Apollo Residential Mortgage (AMTG +1%), and Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE +1.3%).
    • With earnings season for mREITs kicking off next week, Shane and team see book values getting nicked by the Fed rate hike and flattening yield curve.
    • As for this year's FHLB rule change which could limit mREIT's access to that source of funding, Shane concludes the names he's following should be fine. He notes ACRE, AMTG, Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT +1.2%), and Western Asset Mortgage (WMC +0.3%) have not utilized FHLB for funding, and while Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI -0.4%) is a member, it had no advances as of Sept. 30.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: JPMorgan buys the dip in MFA Mortgage (Jan. 26)
    | Tue, Jan. 26, 10:58 AM | 46 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM
    • The discounts to book values across the sector have grown to such high levels that one wonders whether it just makes more sense for many of these players to liquidate the portfolios and return the money to the shareholders.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -4.9%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -4.6%) are selling at 30% discounts to their most recent book value.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -8.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -5%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -9.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -6.4%), AG Mortgage (MITT -7.2%), Anworth (ANH -6.3%), Arlington Asset (AI -8.7%), and Five Oaks (OAKS -8%) are selling at greater than 40% discounts. Two Harbors (TWO -7.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -6.2%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -6%), Capstead (CMO -5.9%), Dynex (DX -7.2%), Western Asset (WMC -8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -7.2%), and Orchid Island (ORC -9.6%) are all nearing 40% discounts.
    • MFA Financial (MFA -6.4%) and Chimera Investment (CIM -8.1%) are both nearing 30% discounts to book.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM | 242 Comments
  • Thu, Jan. 14, 4:12 PM
    • American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.20/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 14.14%
    • Payable Feb. 8; for shareholders of record Jan. 29; ex-div Jan. 27.
    | Thu, Jan. 14, 4:12 PM | 3 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is off eight basis points on the session at 2.10%, and now lower by about 20 basis points since the Fed Funds rate got hiked 25 basis points less than a month ago - probably not the best scenario for mREIT earnings going forward.
    • Other income favorites like equity REITs, BDCs, and utilities (XLU -0.8%) are also being aggressively sold today.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.7%), Armour Residential (ARR -2.4%), Two Harbors (TWO -2%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -2.3%), Hatteras (HTS -3.2%), Capstead (CMO -3.6%), Western Asset (WMC -2.9%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.6%), Dynex (DX -3.1%), Ellington Residential (EARN -3.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.2%), PennyMac (PMT -4.9%), FIve Oaks (OAKS -5.7%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM | 24 Comments
  • Dec. 23, 2015, 12:48 PM
    • A check of discounts/premiums to book for many of the names in the mortgage REIT sector finds discounts have mostly widened significantly over the past year.
    • Among the notable items: Just two names sold at premiums to book a year ago. New York Mortgage (NASDAQ:NYMT) trust at 11.6% and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO) at 1.3%. While book value has barely budged at NYMT over the past year, the price investors are willing to pay has - it now trades at a 17.6% discount. Capstead has shed about 5% of its book value, but now trades at a 22.66% discount.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) still trade at sizable discounts to book, with AGNC's widening to 20.65% from 12.7% a year ago.
    • Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM) trades at just a 4.12% discount to book - that's less than its 4.9% discount a year ago. Book value however, slid 12.7% over the last 52 weeks.
    • Others covered: ARR, TWO, IVR, CYS, HTS, MTGE, AMTG, ANH, MITT, DX, WMC, MFA, EARN, AI, CHMI, ORC, OAKS, ZFC
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 23, 2015, 12:48 PM | 21 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM
    • The about left-for-dead mortgage REIT sector (REM +2.4%) has been enjoying a big Fed rate hike day, and has added to gains since the news officially came down at 2 ET.
    • Credit-exposed names are leading the way higher: Chimera Investment (CIM +5.7%), Invesco (IVR +2.4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +2.1%), Western Asset (WMC +5.6%), Anworth (ANH +2.7%), Arlington Asset (AI +4.7%), AG Mortgage (MITT +4.2%), Orchid Island (ORC +5%). MFA Financial (MFA +3.4%)
    • Others: Annaly (NLY +2.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.8%), CYS Investments, Capstead (CMO +1.6%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Fed projections: 1.4% Fed Funds by the end of 2016 (Dec. 16)
    • Previously: Fed officially puts an end to ZIRP (Dec. 16)
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM | 35 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 10:36 AM
    • With two mortgage-related downgrades this morning, Morgan Stanley looks to be teaching a lesson about how to not try and catch falling knives.
    • Cut to Underweight from Equalweight with price target reduced to $18 from $21 is American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.4%). Morgan's move comes after a brutal run for the former mREIT darling in which the stock has lost 21.5% YTD and more than 50% over the last three years (along with a number of dividend cuts). Last night's close of $17.11 was a 24% discount to estimated Nov. 30 book value.
    • Reported earlier was a downgrade to Nationstar Mortgage after that stock's crash in price.
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 10:36 AM | 12 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2015, 4:26 PM
    • American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) declares $0.20/share monthly dividend, in line with previous.
    • Forward yield 14.15%
    • Payable Jan. 8; for shareholders of record Dec. 31; ex-div Dec. 29.
    | Dec. 14, 2015, 4:26 PM | 6 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2015, 4:13 PM
    • Alongside declaration of a $0.20 per share dividend for the month of December, American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) announces estimated book value per share of $22.52 as of Nov. 30. It was $23.04 a month earlier. The book value decline of $0.52 stands against the dividend paid of just $0.20.
    • Source: Press release
    • Today's close of $16.96 is a 24.7% discount to Nov. 30 book.
    | Dec. 14, 2015, 4:13 PM | 6 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2015, 11:32 AM
    • Before it was fears about interest rates - first, with long yields too low and thus slimming margins, and then the Fed's promise to hike short rates (and slimming margins even more). Now we can toss credit worries into the mix, and the action's plenty panicky there - junk bonds are off sharply again today and two more funds have been forced to gate withdrawals and/or liquidate.
    • Once pure-play agency REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY -2%) and American Capital Mortgage (AGNC -1.7%) now have some credit exposure.
    • Others are more credit-exposed: Chimera Investment (CIM -3.5%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -2.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -2.8%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -4.7%), Western Asset (WMC -3.6%), Anworth (ANH -2.9%), Arlington Asset (AI -3.6%), Javelin (JMI -4.8%), Orchid Island (ORC -7.4%), Five Oaks (OAKS -12.3%)
    • Just to pick a few out, Annaly Capital sells at a 24.4% discount to Sept. 30 book value; American Capital Agency sells at a 26.3% discount; Invesco at a 30% discount; MFA Fnancial at 15.4% discount; New York Mortgage at a 25% discount (this sold at a premium to book as recently as early fall).
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 14, 2015, 11:32 AM | 65 Comments
  • Dec. 11, 2015, 3:52 PM
    • The sector often goes green on days when the major averages sell off, but not today, WIth the S&P 500 down 2% and the 10-year Treasury yield lower by 10 basis points to 2.13%, the mREIT sector (REM -2%) is lit up bright red.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -1.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%) are among the best performers.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -2.1%), Invesco (IVR -3.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -1.9%), Western Asset (WMC -3.6%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -4.2%), Dynex (DX -2.8%), Arlington Asset (AI -3.7%), Ellington Residential (EARN -2.9%), Five Oaks (OAKS -6.7%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 11, 2015, 3:52 PM | 41 Comments
Company Description
American Capital Agency Corp is a real estate investment trust that invests exclusively in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations on a leveraged basis.
Sector: Financial
Country: United States