American Capital Agency Corp.
 (AGNC)

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  • Wed, Feb. 3, 3:01 PM
    • Today's gains are being led by Arlington Asset (AI +7.3%) (not a REIT, but in the business) after it posted its first quarterly increase in book value in six quarters last night.
    • American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.7%) reported earlier this week, and Nomura's Brock Vandervliet notes three positives from yesterday's earnings call (transcript): 1) More buybacks are coming; 2) Green shoots are apparent in the MBS market; 3) Book value should remain stable from here (it rose a bit in the year's final month, though dipped for the quarter).
    • He does slightly adjust downward his earnings estimates - by a penny in Q1 to $0.54 per share, and by two cents for the full year. He expects the $0.60 dividend is safe through H1, but there is some risk there.
    • Annaly (NLY +0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO +2.9%), CYS (CYS +2.6%), Hatteras (HTS +1.9%), Capstead (CMO +2.2%), Dynex (DX +2.2%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Arlington Asset posts Q4 book value gain (Feb. 2)
    • Previously: American Capital Agency higher post-earnings (Feb. 2)
    | Wed, Feb. 3, 3:01 PM | 22 Comments
  • Tue, Feb. 2, 11:33 AM
    • "We believe the Fed will be forced to abandon its 'tightening bias' before the end of 2016," says American Capital Agency (AGNC +2.3%) , talking about the 2016 outlook in its earnings presentation. The statement is less bold than it seems given last week's dovish FOMC statement.
    • With "lower for longer" maybe about to emerge as the accepted rates theme, levered buyers of MBS today could be setting themselves for nice returns, says the company.
    • "We believe the mortgage REIT space is significantly mispriced as the fundamental value of underlying investments has improved."
    • Along with a more benign rate environment, other catalysts include a funding market which has already repriced to reflect new regulatory requirements, and now-wide spreads becoming less so.
    • Previously: American Capital Agency manages positive return in Q4 (Feb. 1)
    | Tue, Feb. 2, 11:33 AM
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM
    • The discounts to book values across the sector have grown to such high levels that one wonders whether it just makes more sense for many of these players to liquidate the portfolios and return the money to the shareholders.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -4.9%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -4.6%) are selling at 30% discounts to their most recent book value.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -8.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -5%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -9.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -6.4%), AG Mortgage (MITT -7.2%), Anworth (ANH -6.3%), Arlington Asset (AI -8.7%), and Five Oaks (OAKS -8%) are selling at greater than 40% discounts. Two Harbors (TWO -7.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -6.2%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -6%), Capstead (CMO -5.9%), Dynex (DX -7.2%), Western Asset (WMC -8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -7.2%), and Orchid Island (ORC -9.6%) are all nearing 40% discounts.
    • MFA Financial (MFA -6.4%) and Chimera Investment (CIM -8.1%) are both nearing 30% discounts to book.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM | 242 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is off eight basis points on the session at 2.10%, and now lower by about 20 basis points since the Fed Funds rate got hiked 25 basis points less than a month ago - probably not the best scenario for mREIT earnings going forward.
    • Other income favorites like equity REITs, BDCs, and utilities (XLU -0.8%) are also being aggressively sold today.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.7%), Armour Residential (ARR -2.4%), Two Harbors (TWO -2%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -2.3%), Hatteras (HTS -3.2%), Capstead (CMO -3.6%), Western Asset (WMC -2.9%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.6%), Dynex (DX -3.1%), Ellington Residential (EARN -3.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.2%), PennyMac (PMT -4.9%), FIve Oaks (OAKS -5.7%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM | 24 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM
    • The about left-for-dead mortgage REIT sector (REM +2.4%) has been enjoying a big Fed rate hike day, and has added to gains since the news officially came down at 2 ET.
    • Credit-exposed names are leading the way higher: Chimera Investment (CIM +5.7%), Invesco (IVR +2.4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +2.1%), Western Asset (WMC +5.6%), Anworth (ANH +2.7%), Arlington Asset (AI +4.7%), AG Mortgage (MITT +4.2%), Orchid Island (ORC +5%). MFA Financial (MFA +3.4%)
    • Others: Annaly (NLY +2.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.8%), CYS Investments, Capstead (CMO +1.6%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Fed projections: 1.4% Fed Funds by the end of 2016 (Dec. 16)
    • Previously: Fed officially puts an end to ZIRP (Dec. 16)
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM | 35 Comments
  • Dec. 14, 2015, 11:32 AM
    • Before it was fears about interest rates - first, with long yields too low and thus slimming margins, and then the Fed's promise to hike short rates (and slimming margins even more). Now we can toss credit worries into the mix, and the action's plenty panicky there - junk bonds are off sharply again today and two more funds have been forced to gate withdrawals and/or liquidate.
    • Once pure-play agency REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY -2%) and American Capital Mortgage (AGNC -1.7%) now have some credit exposure.
    • Others are more credit-exposed: Chimera Investment (CIM -3.5%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -2.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -2.8%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -4.7%), Western Asset (WMC -3.6%), Anworth (ANH -2.9%), Arlington Asset (AI -3.6%), Javelin (JMI -4.8%), Orchid Island (ORC -7.4%), Five Oaks (OAKS -12.3%)
    • Just to pick a few out, Annaly Capital sells at a 24.4% discount to Sept. 30 book value; American Capital Agency sells at a 26.3% discount; Invesco at a 30% discount; MFA Fnancial at 15.4% discount; New York Mortgage at a 25% discount (this sold at a premium to book as recently as early fall).
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 14, 2015, 11:32 AM | 65 Comments
  • Dec. 11, 2015, 3:52 PM
    • The sector often goes green on days when the major averages sell off, but not today, WIth the S&P 500 down 2% and the 10-year Treasury yield lower by 10 basis points to 2.13%, the mREIT sector (REM -2%) is lit up bright red.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -1.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.2%) are among the best performers.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -2.1%), Invesco (IVR -3.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -1.9%), Western Asset (WMC -3.6%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -4.2%), Dynex (DX -2.8%), Arlington Asset (AI -3.7%), Ellington Residential (EARN -2.9%), Five Oaks (OAKS -6.7%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 11, 2015, 3:52 PM | 41 Comments
  • Oct. 27, 2015, 11:35 AM
    • Speaking on the earnings call, American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.6%) CIO Gary Kain says the company's investment mandate has been expanded to allow up to 10% of the portfolio to be in non-agency securities. Kain quickly adds that AGNC will remain almost exclusively focused on agency paper and any addition of non-agency will be quite slow.
    • Webcast and presentation slides
    • Prime candidates for purchases would be jumbo 30-year AAA mortgages and AAA CMBS paper, both of which offer significantly greater spreads to benchmarks than agency 30-year MBS.
    • Asked if the company would again consider buying stakes in peers given the major discounts to book value in the industry, Kain says he'd prefer buying back his own stock at this time.
    • "The premise for our Buy rating was that we believed that the manager of AGNC could defend BVPS against meaningful deterioration," says Wunderlich's Merrill Ross in her downgrade of the stock to Hold. While Gary Kain thinks the current wider spreads could make for healthy investments going forward, Ross isn't so sure: "The reality is that indecisive action on the part of the FOMC to tighten monetary policy after nearly seven years at the zero bound has created an environment that is hostile to value creation, particularly for agency MBS portfolio managers."
    • Previously: Earnings and book value fall at American Capital Agency (Oct. 26)
    • Previously: Wunderlich throws in the towel on American Capital Agency (Oct. 27)
    | Oct. 27, 2015, 11:35 AM
  • Oct. 7, 2015, 11:15 AM
    • So roughed up are the mortgage REITS (REM +0.7%), that what's now a six-day rally in the sector is little more than a blip on the longer-term chart.
    • There's no particular news today, but with much of the sector trading at somewhere in the area of a 15-20% or even higher discounts to book value, even the worst scenario on interest rates may be more than priced in.
    • Leading the way higher today are Ellington Residential (EARN +4.3%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI +3.4%), Arlington Asset (though not a REIT) (AI +2.3%), Dynex Capital (DX +0.9%), Apollo Residential (AMTG +1.2%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT +1%), Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI +1.2%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +0.5%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.8%). The action in Annaly Capital (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.3%) is more subdued.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Oct. 7, 2015, 11:15 AM | 27 Comments
  • Oct. 5, 2015, 12:36 PM
    • With a wave of Q3 dividend cuts now in the rearview mirror, perhaps investors are looking ahead to what might be stability in payouts. With most of the sector trading at double-digit discounts to book value - and plenty of names selling for more than 20% discounts - even stability should be enough for a reasonable rally into year-end.
    • Leading the way higher is Five Oaks Investment (OAKS +6.4%), while mREIT giants Annaly Capital (NLY +1%) and American Capital Mortgage (AGNC +1.2%) are sector laggards today.
    • Two Harbors (TWO +1.7%), CYS Investments (CYS +2.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +3.5%), Dynex Capital (DX +2.4%), AG Mortgage (MITT +2.6%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI +4%), Armour Residential (ARR +2.9%), Orchid Island (ORC +4.2%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Oct. 5, 2015, 12:36 PM | 22 Comments
  • Sep. 28, 2015, 12:24 PM
    • It's a big ex-dividend day for the mortgage REIT sector, but the stocks of payers like Ellington Residential (EARN -6.2%), Arlington Asset (AI -10.4%), Western Asset (WMC -4.9%), Two Harbors (TWO -5.7%), Chimera Investment (CIM -7.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -6.9%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.2%), and Annaly Capital (NLY -4.8%),  are down far more than their payout amounts.
    • The above declines include the dividends being paid, so are higher than actual.
    • Others like Armour Residential (ARR -2.9%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -4.2%), Five Oaks (OAKS -5.9%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.4%), and Invesco (IVR -4.2%) are just down.
    • The decline comes as another Fed head all but promises a rate hike this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield falls back six basis points to 2.10%. Thirty-day Fed Fund futures are pricing in just less than a 50% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in 2015.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Sep. 28, 2015, 12:24 PM | 77 Comments
  • Sep. 17, 2015, 2:31 PM
    | Sep. 17, 2015, 2:31 PM | 50 Comments
  • Sep. 1, 2015, 2:54 PM
    • The financial sector is leading the market lower today, but these sessions often see money flow into REITs. There's no green to be found, but mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY -0.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%), Anworth Mortgage (ANH -0.2%), Chimera (CIM -0.1%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.1%), Invesco (IVR -0.3%), and Dynex (DX -0.7%) are outperforming by a wide margin.
    • Equity REITs are doing better than the XLF and S&P 500, but still sharply lower: Realty Income (O -1.5%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.2%), HCP (HCP -1.2%), Gramercy Property (GPT -1.9%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.4%), Kimco (KIM -2.1%), Simon Property (SPG -2.2%), Public Storage (PSA -1.1%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.1%), Stag Industrial (STAG -1.2%)
    • ETFs: IYR, VNQ, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, LMBS, IARAX
    | Sep. 1, 2015, 2:54 PM | 33 Comments
  • Aug. 21, 2015, 3:30 PM
    • These income favorites often catch a wave of buying when the major averages sell off and yields fall, but the panicky action today is taking down nearly all equities.
    • The iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR -1.7%) and the iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REIT ETF (REM -1.6%), however, are outperforming the S&P 500's 2.7% decline.
    • Previously: Just a modest rally for Treasurys as stocks crumble (Aug. 21)
    • Leading the mREITs lower is Javelin Mortgage (JMI -5.9%), with SA contributor ColoradoWealthManagementFund noting the company has stopped buying back stock despite its wide discount to book value. The sector as a whole looks like it will continue to have to deal with widening spreads and rising prepayments, and still have a looming rate hike cycle on the horizon.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -2%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.8%), Annaly (NLY -1.2%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.8%), Arlington Asset (AI -2.4%), Orchid Island (ORC -2.5%), Dynex (DX -2%), Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.3%).
    • Equity REITs: Realty Income (O -0.7%), Vereit (VER -2.3%), Health Care REIT (HCN -1%), HCP (HCP -1.1%), Gramercy Property (GPT -3.1%), Equity Residential (EQY -1.6%), Simon Property (SPG -0.5%), Kimco (KIM -2.1%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -2.8%), Stag Industrial (STAG -1.4%), American Campus (ACC -1.1%), Public Storage (PSA -1%).
    | Aug. 21, 2015, 3:30 PM | 38 Comments
  • Aug. 20, 2015, 1:41 PM
    • Searching for green as the averages get routed, one finds a few pockets of only modest strength in some of the beaten-down REIT names as the 10-year Treasury yield slips to 2.08% and rate hike expectations move from September to December, or even 2016.
    • Sticking with a September rate hike is the team at Citigroup, which continues to believe only a "bunker buster" will prevent the Fed from hiking next month. The group notes an overlooked line in yesterday's FOMC minutes in which the committee talked about managing the risks resulting from prolonged low rates. It's a "smoking gun," says Citi, meaning a rate hike is coming sooner rather than later.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY +0.2%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.6%), Realty Income (O +0.8%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +0.9%), Public Storage (PSA -0.1%).
    | Aug. 20, 2015, 1:41 PM | 37 Comments
  • Aug. 11, 2015, 12:59 PM
    • The Fed may be determined to hike rates, but deflationary signals are everywhere, with Beijing the latest government to acknowledge such with its devaluation overnight.
    • Crude oil has taken out a new six-year low, tumbling another 4% to $43.15 per barrel, and copper's 3% decline has brought it to a fresh six-year low. The grains are all down by 2% or more, but gold is marginally higher.
    • The major U.S. averages are down more than 1%, and Europe fell 1.5% today.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by a full ten basis points to 2.13%.
    • Leading the heavily discounted mREIT sector higher are Annaly Capital (NLY +1.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.2%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.6%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +1.3%), Capstead (CMO +1%), Anworth (ANH +1.4%), Dynex Capital (DX +2.6%), and AG Mortgage (MITT +1.6%).
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • In equity REITs: National Retail (NNN +1.2%), Equity Residential (EQR +1.5%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.2%), General Growth (GGP +1.9%), Kimco (KIM +1.4%), Whitestone REIT (WSR +2.9%), Washington Real Estate (WRE +1.2%), Hospitality Properties (HPT +2.3%), Chamber Street (CSG +1.1%).
    • ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX
    | Aug. 11, 2015, 12:59 PM | 19 Comments
Company Description
American Capital Agency Corp is a real estate investment trust that invests exclusively in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations on a leveraged basis.
Sector: Financial
Country: United States