Assured Guaranty Ltd.NYSE
Tue, Nov. 22, 10:51 AM
- Noting about $2.6B of excess capital above the amount required by S&P to maintain a AAA level, BTIG's Mark Palmer thinks Assured Guaranty (AGO +1%) is well-positioned to be greenlighted by the NY Department of Financial Services for a special dividend from the operating subsidiaries to the parent.
- That money would allow the company to continue with its robust buyback program at prices of just about 50% of adjusted book value.
- There's also the strong gain in interest rates of late, and that could mean better prospects for the municipal bond insurance business.
- The new $41 price target (from $37) is based on 0.60x estimated year-end 2017 adjusted book value of $72.16, minus $4.37 for the estimated impact of Puerto Rico losses. It's also about 17% upside from the current price.
Fri, Nov. 4, 5:37 PM
Fri, Nov. 4, 1:00 PM
Fri, Nov. 4, 10:17 AM
- Q3 operating EPS of $3.83 blew through Street estimates of $0.69, says BTIG bull Mark Palmer, and there was also a 7.2% Q/Q increase in adjusted book value per share to $66.34. Of the $4.48 gain in book value, the CIFG acquisition accounted for $3.85.
- Trading at well under half of adjusted BVPS, buybacks are highly accretive, says Palmer, though they slowed in Q3 to just $55M (2014 buybacks were $590M, 2015 $555M, 2016 H1 $135M). Alongside earnings last night, the company announced a $250M boost in the repurchase authorization, bringing total capacity to $345M.
- Palmer reiterates his Buy rating and boosts the price target to $37 from $35. The $37 is based on 0.6x adjusted book value less the $4.37 per share estimated potential losses related to Puerto Rico.
- AGO +6.8% today to $31.43.
- Assured Guaranty Earnings Center
Thu, Nov. 3, 5:30 PM
Wed, Nov. 2, 5:35 PM
- AAOI, ABTL, ACET, AGO, AHT, AIRM, AL, AMBC, AMBR, AMED, AMH, ANET, ATSG, ATVI, BBG, BLDR, BNFT, BOJA, BRS, CARA, CARB, CBS, CDR, CECO, CERS, CINR, CLNE, CLVS, COGT, CPSI, CRC, CSC, CSOD, CTRL, CWST, DCO, DCT, ECOM, ECR, ED, EFC, EGN, EGOV, ELY, EOG, EPR, EVC, EXEL, FCE.A, FEYE, FFG, FLDM, FLR, FNGN, FOSL, FPRX, GCAP, GERN, GLUU, GNMK, GNW, GPRO, GSAT, GSBD, GST, GUID, GXP, HCI, HDP, HIL, HTGC, IMMR, IMPV, INAP, INGN, INVN, IVR, JJSF, KAR, KHC, KMPR, KW, LADR, LCI, LGF, LGND, LNT, LOCO, LVS, LXU, MAIN, MDRX, MED, MEDP, MELI, MHK, MITT, MMI, MNST, MRC, MSI, MTD, MTX, MTZ, NAVG, NDLS, NE, NFG, NKTR, NNI, NPTN, NUS, OEC, OLED, OREX, OTEX, OVAS, PBA, PCTY, PDLI, PEN, PETX, PFMT, PODD, QLYS, QRVO, RATE, RMAX, RP, RPXC, RTRX, RVNC, SBUX, SEM, SJI, SLCA, SPPI, SPXC, SSNI, STAA, STAG, STMP, SWIR, SWKS, SYMC, TAHO, THG, TRMR, TRQ, TRUE, TS, TSRO, TWLO, TWOU, TXMD, UBNT, UEIC, UEPS, VRNS, VTL, WEB, WGL, WIFI, WTW, XLRN
Wed, Nov. 2, 6:41 AM
Tue, Oct. 4, 5:37 PM
Thu, Sep. 29, 7:26 AM
- The sale of MBIA UK to Assured (NYSE:AGO) is part of MBIA's (NYSE:MBI) plan to address the maturity of the Zohar II Notes on Jan. 20, 2017, which had about $772M of gross par outstanding as of the end of Q2.
- MBIA does not currently expect that the Zohar II CLO will have sufficient cash flow to repay all of the Zohar II notes at maturity. The deal is hoped to close in early January, but there's no assurance it will or that MBIA's strategies will be successful.
Wed, Aug. 3, 4:59 PM
Wed, Aug. 3, 12:54 PM
Tue, Aug. 2, 5:35 PM
- AEL, AGO, AGU, ALB, ALIM, ALL, ANDE, AREX, ATO, AWK, AWR, BBRG, BFAM, BGC, BIO, BKH, BNFT, BREW, BYD, CABO, CBPX, CCRN, CDI, CECO, CF, CHDN, CIM, CLR, CNAT, CODI, CPA, CSGS, CSII, CTL, CXW, DENN, DEPO, DK, DKL, DPM, ECR, EPE, EPR, EQIX, ERII, ETE, ETP, EVC, EVHC, EXAR, EXEL, EXTR, FIVN, FOXA, FRGI, FRSH, FSLR, G, GBDC, GDDY, GERN, GPOR, HABT, HASI, HI, HIL, HIVE, HLF, HOS, HR, HRTG, HUBS, IAG, IL, INOV, IO, IRG, ITRI, JACK, JCOM, JONE, JRVR, LGCY, LHCG, LNC, LPI, MASI, MC, MED, MET, MNR, MRO, MTDR, MUSA, MWA, NBIX, NKTR, NLY, NNBR, NP, NSIT, NSTG, OAS, OME, OSUR, PDM, PE, PEGA, PMT, PODD, PRA, PRU, PRXL, QLYS, QTWO, QUIK, REXR, RICE, RIG, RIGP, RLJ, RMP, RNG, RP, RST, RYN, SBY, SEMI, SGMO, SNCR, SQ, SQNM, SRC, SSS, STAA, STR, SUN, SWM, SXL, TCAP, TDOC, TEAR, TEP, TLLP, TRIP, TRNC, TROX, TS, TSLA, TSLX, TSO, TTEC, TWO, UHAL, VTAE, VVC, WCN, WGL, WMC, WPG, WPX, WU, XEC, XPO
Wed, Jun. 29, 12:47 PM
- Cloture was invoked by a wider-than-expected 68-32 margin, putting the Puerto Rico debt relief bill on track to pass before the end of the week, when the Commonwealth's government says it will default on its most senior debt payments.
- The White House is a big backer of the bill, and the President is expected to sign quickly once the full Senate passes. The law doesn't authorize or prevent a default, but will provide Puerto Rico with protection from creditor litigation (i.e. hedge funds "suing the Commonwealth to death") while it works out a restructuring.
- It's good news for the bond insurers MBIA (MBI +2.9%), Assured Guaranty (AGO +3.9%), and Ambac (AMBC +5.3%), says BTIG's Mark Palmer, as it avoids what could have been a chaotic debt restructuring.
Wed, Jun. 22, 11:22 AM
- While shares of MBIA (NYSE:MBI) and Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) were hit this week thanks to a breakdown in talks between Puerto Rico and its creditors. The breakdown shouldn't be surprising, writes Mark Palmer at BTIG, but is instead part of the normal back and forth between negotiating parties.
- More notable, says Palmer, is the Commonwealth's latest proposal to certain bondholders which he believes gives investors an idea of what a worst-case scenario will look like.
- Palmer's previous estimate of MBI's loss per share on its Puerto Rico exposure of $5.14 is cut to $4.26. For AGO, it was $6.09, but has been cut to $5.19.
- He reiterates his Buy ratings on both, and lifts the PT on MBI to $14 from $13 (100% upside). The PT on AGO remains at $35 (40% upside).
- MBI +3.25%, AGO +0.55%
Mon, Jun. 13, 10:36 AM
- The law would have allowed the Commonwealth to restructure the debt of its utility companies to help deal with the financial crisis there. Siding with bondholders, the Supreme Court by a 5-2 margin ruled the law unconstitutional.
- The ruling puts the ball in Congress' court to fashion a bailout.
- MBIA (MBI +0.8%) has nosed higher on the news. Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) is flat.
Thu, Jun. 2, 3:54 PM
- An audit report suggests Puerto Rico be may able to void some its borrowing because it may have issued illegally - that is lawmakers exceeded Constitutional debt limits.
- Source: Marketwatch
- At issue is a 2014 $3.5B general obligation bond offering, and $900M of 2015 Tax Refund Anticipation Notes.
- Money to make debt payments on these is not in the government's proposed budget. Governor Padilla: "Either we pay Wall Street or we pay Puerto Ricans."
- Going back to the report, it says the government cannot borrow to finance operating deficits, but the 2014 GO offering was just that.
- Watching with interest: MBIA (MBI -1.7%), Assured Guaranty (AGO +0.6%)