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Wed, Jan. 27, 11:34 AM
- Exhibitor stocks stay in a downward trend as the sector struggles to gain traction. Cinemark Holdings (CNK -1.2%), Marcus Corp (MCS -2.1%), Reading International (RDI -2.2%), Carmike Cinemas (CKEC -0.7%), and Regal Entertainment (RGC -0.6%) are all lower. IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) is down 5% after Dolby partnered up with Wanda in China.
- Last weekend's East Coast blizzard is expected to dent Q1 earnings slightly as not all the lost traffic is recaptured, while on a longer time frame the delay in the next Star Wars movie pushes out quite a bit of extra revenue.
- Most projections on the 2016 box office call for a drop of 2% to 4% off a tough comparison.
- Earlier this week, RBC Capital Markets called AMC Entertainment (AMC -1.7%) the top pick in the group with the most upside over the next 12 months.
- Previously: AMC Entertainment on watch after rousing RBC Capital upgrade (Jan. 26 2016)
Tue, Jan. 26, 7:55 AM
Sat, Jan. 23, 2:46 PM
- The economic cost of the blizzard hitting the East Coast could run as high as $850M, according to a forecast from Planalytics.
- The tally includes lost productivity and a lower level of consumer spending over the duration of the storm - even after factoring in the impact of consumers stockpiling from chains such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and Kroger (NYSE:KR).
- The storm is broad enough to impact domestic traffic numbers for restaurant chains (MCD, QSR, WEN, CMG, DENN, DNKN, SBUX) and movie theater operators (RGC, CKEC, CNK, AMC).
- The number of cancelled flights tied to the storm is tracking rapidly toward 10K. U.S. airlines (LUV, AAL, JBLU, UAL, DAL) have become more efficient with managing major storms, but will still take a hit to Q1 revenue.
- Looking ahead: Though harsh U.S. winters have lopped off as much as 1% to 2% from retail sales in the past, the 2015-2016 season still sits comfortably in the historical range used by economists when making their projections.
- Previously: Blizzard rally for HD, LOW, BGG, TTC, ACAT, COLM, and BDE (Jan. 22)
- Previously: Storm alert for Shake Shack and Dunkin' Donuts (Jan. 22)
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Wed, Jan. 13, 8:01 PM
- MKM Partners likes videogames in its Media & Entertainment outlook for 2016 -- and of those companies, Electronic Arts (EA -3.4%) is its top pick, though it also has praise for peers Activision Blizzard (ATVI -6.1%) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO -3.3%) in that sector.
- MKM's joining a chorus noticing EA's strong game slate for this year, and it says the company should also benefit from continuing margin expansion, "which has been fueled by steady gross margin improvement and declining operating expenses," Eric Handler writes.
- The firm thinks EA can expand EPS growth through mobile sales of its popular game platforms and deploying excess cash in a variety of ways.
- Aside from gaming, MKM also points to Imax (IMAX -3.8%), theater operator AMC Entertainment (AMC -2.4%) and Time Warner (TWX -0.7%) as picks.
- Consumer confidence is looking good in the latter stages of the business cycle, it says, and "as a result, we believe companies best positioned to outperform this year are those in the midst of positive content cycles; and operating in more economically resistant segments, particularly video games, for which we have a very bullish outlook."
- Previously: Electronic Arts +1.4% as Piper stays upbeat (Jan. 13 2016)
- Previously: Electronic Arts launches subscription service for PC gamers (Jan. 12 2016)
- Previously: Cowen: Mobile gaming points to big quarter for EA (Jan. 07 2016)
Mon, Jan. 4, 12:56 PM
- Exhibitor stocks are under pressure after two separate analysts lowered their projections for the 2016 U.S. box office.
- Stifel Nicolaus analyst Benjamin Mogil dropped his estimate to -5% growth from a prior forecast for a 3% increase.
- MKM Partners' Eric Handler sees a +0.1% gain after previously tipping 2% growth.
- Perhaps an important distinction, part of the reason for the revised comparison is the strong performance of movies in December (led by Star Wars: The Force Awakens) which makes the year-over-year comparison tougher.
- Cinemark Holdings (CNK -5.4%), Regal Entertainment (RGC -6%), Marcus Corp (MCS -4.6%), AMC Entertainment (AMC -3.7%), and Carmike Cinemas (CKEC -2.4%) are all lower on the day.
Dec. 29, 2015, 2:52 PM
- Disney (DIS -0.1%) scored a larger than normal cut from exhibitors for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, sources tell CNBC.
- The studio's opening weekend percentage of 60% is above the industry average of around 55%. The higher revenue split is likely to continue throughout the extended run of the movie. Disney also secured a four-week commitment from theater chains, instead of the normal three-week arrangement
- The strong response to the blockbuster also sets up Disney to generate more from home entertainment providers.
- On the exhibitor side, the smaller cut on Star Wars is more than offset by gains made on the high-margin concession business at scale, although there are some lingering concerns that Disney's leverage will filter down to other studios when they renegotiate box-sharing deals.
- Exhibitor stocks are up with the rest of the market today, led by AMC Entertainment (AMC +1.9%) and Carmike Cinemas (CKEC +1.1%).
Dec. 28, 2015, 11:12 AM
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens was a monster during its second weekend, bringing in another $153.5M in the U.S.
- The overall U.S. box office was up 42% from the post-Christmas weekend a year ago with seven other movies topping $10M (Daddy's Home, Joy, Sisters, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Concussion, The Big Short, Point Break).
- For the year, the U.S. box office is up 5% Y/Y to $10.892B with another few days to go.
- Disney (NYSE:DIS) is up 1% on the day, while exhibitor stocks (AMC, RGC, CNK, CKEC, RDI, IMAX) are mixed.
- Previously: 'The Force Awakens' becomes fastest movie to hit $1B milestone (Dec. 28 2015)
Dec. 23, 2015, 3:09 PM
- AMC Entertainment (AMC -4.4%) is lower as shares return to their pre-Star Wars buildup level. On a broader view, AMC is down 10% YTD which is roughly in-line with the exhibitor sector average.
Dec. 21, 2015, 12:25 PM
- IMAX (IMAX -3%) is down on heavy volume even after the box office numbers for Star Wars flew past estimates for the opening weekend.
- The company averaged $77K per screen during the period which is the best mark it has ever seen for a movie debut.
- Quick analysis off the slide is that buy-and-hold investors will see the Star Wars boost down the road when earnings are reported, but that options traders are taking it to those looking to cash in off the box office trade (see IMAX options chain). Or perhaps put another way by Yoda: "Fear is the path to the dark side."
- AMC Entertainment (AMC -2.6%) and Regal Entertainment (RGC -1.1%) are also disappointing investors today, while Carmike Cinemas (CKEC +0.7%) and Reading International (RDI +0.4%) are higher.
- Previously: 'Star Wars' has $238M opening for the ages (Dec. 20 2015)
- Previously: IMAX higher after blowout Star Wars numbers (Dec. 21 2015)
Dec. 19, 2015, 11:08 AM
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens is tracking toward a $246M to $254M opening weekend, a mark that stands above many forecasts from Wall Street and Hollywood.
- An even better sign for movie theater chains is the extremely high ratings given to the film by moviegoers. The hard-to-land A from CinemaScore indicates Star Wars is likely to bring in repeat visitors just like the original in 1977, and some that skipped the last round of lower rated Star Wars movies (episodes 1-3).
- Disney (NYSE:DIS) had a rough day on Friday, down almost 4% off a stinging BTIG downgrade. Shares could get a boost if the $250M projection plays out.
- Related stocks: CKEC, AMC, CNK, RLD, IMAX, RDI, MCS, NCMI.
- Previously: Star Wars arrives amid sky-high expectations (Dec. 18)
- Previously: Disney 'Star Wars' projections: first-ever $100M day, $200M-plus weekend (Dec. 18)
Dec. 18, 2015, 8:33 AM
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens hits theaters with a vengeance this weekend amid sky-high expectations for exhibitors. Though theater chains take a lower cut from blockbusters, and Disney films in general, concession and admission revenue for December is still expected to pop. A few numbers to watch are listed below.
- The largest domestic December opening weekend ever was The Hobbitt: An Unexpected Journey at $37.13M which should fall easily, Star Wars could top the all-time U.S. opening weekend record set by Jurassic World of $208M.
- The highest per theater average for an opening ever was Jurassic World at $48,555. A high mix of premium ticket sales for Star Wars could help that record fall by the wayside.
- On the all-time global box office list, Star Wars is expected to rank somewhere behind the $3.554B haul of Titanic and Avatar's $2.932B. As long as Star Wars clears $2B, the exhibitor sector should meet expectations. That could be welcome relief for major names AMC Entertainment, Cinemark, Regal Entertainment, and Carmike Cinemas which all trail the YTD return of the S&P 500 Index.
- YTD box office revenue in the U.S. is up 4.0% to $10.075B through December 16. Star Wars has two weeks to take that mark considerably higher.
- Related stocks: CKEC, AMC, CNK, RLD, IMAX, RDI, MCS, NCMI.
Dec. 16, 2015, 11:16 AM
- Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC) is up 4.3% and AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) is 3.2% higher to follow up on yesterday's rally in theater stocks.
- IMAX (IMAX +2.1%) has also started the day with some gusto.
- It's possible that very positive early reviews (no spoilers at link) for Star Wars: The Force Awakens could be playing into the bumps, although activist investors at Carmike and a new CEO at AMC are also large factors.
- Previously: The Force is strong in these names (Dec. 15 2015)
Dec. 15, 2015, 2:46 PM
- New AMC Entertainment (AMC +5.7%) CEO Adam Aron is already making the media rounds to talk about the future of the company.
- The company plans to explore possible joint ventures with parent Dalian Wanda Group, Aron tells Deadline.
- Shares of AMC are making a strong move higher today.
- Previously: AMC Entertainment names new CEO (Dec. 15)
Dec. 15, 2015, 9:45 AM
- Early movers based in part of the global Star Wars premiere include AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) +2.6%, Regal Entertainment (NYSE:RGC) +2.1%, Cinemark Holdings (NYSE:CNK) +1.5%, Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC) +2.1%, Marcus Corp. (NYSE:MCS) +1.2%, IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) +3.8%, Dolby (NYSE:DLB) +1.5%, Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) +1.3%.
- The gains are larger than the move in the broad market.
- Some analysts think theater traffic this month could be a beneficiary of sub-$2 gas prices.
- Previously: 'The Force Awakens' to open in 4,100+ theaters (Dec. 15 2015)
Dec. 15, 2015, 7:02 AM
Dec. 1, 2015, 10:33 AM
- Paramount Pictures (VIA, VIAB) has set home release dates for the two films it used to pioneer an audacious release-window experiment, hustling the pictures out of theaters and onto home screens.
- Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension and Scout’s Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse were released this fall under an agreement with some theatrical exhibitors that the films would hit home entertainment platforms just 17 days after they left theaters (technically, after they dipped below 300 screening theaters).
- While AMC Theatres (NYSE:AMC) and Cineplex (OTC:CPXGF) were part of the deal, along with five other smaller chains, Regal (NYSE:RGC) and Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) took a public stance against the new model, lining up with the traditional 90-day exclusive theatrical window.
- With the 17-day clocks started as those two releases faded, Scout's Guide (released Oct. 30) will hit digital platforms Dec. 8, and the Paranormal Activity sequel (released Oct. 23) will head to digital Dec. 15.
- As agreed, in lieu of the 90-day exclusive theatrical window, the participating chains will get a percentage of Paramount's digital revenues for that 90-day period.
- Previously: Cinemark Holdings not biting on Paramount's short-window plan (Aug. 06 2015)
- Previously: Paramount wins support for window-shortening plan; Regal opposed (Jul. 30 2015)
- Previously: Paramount's release-window experiment draws praise -- and worries (Jul. 16 2015)
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc is engaged in theatrical exhibition. It is principally involved in the theatrical exhibition business and owns, operates or has interests in theatres located in the United States.
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