Be smarter and faster with PRO Alerts on AMD
From other sites
at Zacks.com (Nov 5, 2014)
at CNBC.com (Nov 3, 2014)
at CNBC.com (Oct 22, 2014)
at CNBC.com (Oct 22, 2014)
at CNBC.com (Oct 17, 2014)
at MarketWatch.com (Oct 17, 2014)
at MarketWatch.com (Oct 17, 2014)
at MarketWatch.com (Oct 16, 2014)
at MarketWatch.com (Oct 16, 2014)
at CNBC.com (Oct 16, 2014)
- The mobility SoC codenamed Carrizo and Carrizo-L are stuck at 28nm, and aren't very marketable in comparison to Intel's Core M lineup for tablets.
- AMD is unlikely to have much success with dense serve over the intermediate term, as Intel's server solutions are way ahead of AMD in terms of efficiency and performance.
- Qualcomm will release a lineup of server class CPUs, which will compete directly with AMD's dense server offerings.
- Yesterday, AMD announced its latest update to its APU lineup, Carrizo.
- The new chip, Carrizo, is seemingly on time.
- Being on time was one of CEO Lisa Su's goals, and this could mean that AMD is leaving behind its old, infamous ways of tardiness.
AMD Introduces New Mobile APUs, Slashes Price Of Exisiting Ones To Gain Back Lost PC Market Share From Intel
- AMD announces new mobile APUs designed as complete solutions for gaming, productivity applications and ultra high-definition 4K experiences.
- AMD continues to struggle in the Computing and Graphics business due to ongoing weakness in the consumer PC market.
- We believe in the company’s long-term growth potential, reflected in our price estimate of $4.12, which represents a more than 50% premium to the current market price.
- AMD believes its increasing focus on commercial PCs will help it improve its performance in this segment.
- AMD also improved its notebook APU mix last quarter - Kaveri processors saw mobile design wins and its higher-end mobile processor unit shipments increased nearly 50%.
- AMD also devised a unified gaming strategy in that addresses its plan to drive the gaming market across consoles, cloud platforms, tablets and PCs.
- There is currently an ongoing spirited debate in the Seeking Alpha community regarding the prospects of Advanced Micro Devices.
- Rather than only focusing on the common stock, which sits at the bottom of AMD's capital structure, investors should also consider the company's bonds.
- AMD bonds are currently yielding between 8% and 9%.
- AMD is not a great turnaround play.
- AMD continues to exhibit weakness in the PC market on both the CPU and GPU front.
- Because new business wins are unlikely to offset declining business categories inclusive of consoles, revenues may continue to decline over the next three to five years.
- AMD will retain between 6-10% of the PC microprocessor market in the long run.
- AMD's competitive advantage in graphics-capable APUs will continue to support semi-custom growth.
- Pressure from NVIDIA is real, but markets are overreacting.
- Cost-cutting will accelerate in 2015 and should lead to margin improvement.
- For the reasons above, long-term investors should accumulate shares under $3.00.
- AMD continues to suffer as the global PC sales continue to show a declining trend.
- The focus on developing new architectures should help the company revive its PCs segment.
- The Semi-Custom segment is showing solid growth and the future growth prospects of this segment remain bright.
AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50
- Model updated for restructuring charges and lower growth outlook.
- My assumptions in the Levered Returns valuation models yield a fair value per share of $3.50, still 31% above its October 16th closing price of $2.67.
- AMD represents a significant opportunity for long-term investors.
Update: AMD Earnings: Survive 2015, Aim To Thrive In 2016
- AMD reported dismal earnings and provided a frightening guidance for Q4'14.
- As expected, Intel will continue to apply pressure on AMD through the short-term unless it can respond with a competitive architecture within the next two years.
- I did not expect results and guidance to be this bad, but it is clear that AMD's only and last opportunity lies beyond 2016.
- AMD reported EPS and sales figures that slightly missed consensus estimates.
- AMD reported awful guidance for next quarter - CEO commentary contradicts the negative impact headcount reductions will have on product development.
- AMD looks even less appealing as competition and deteriorating financial performance will put downward pressure on the price of the stock.
AMD - Another Bad News Show, Restructuring And New Lows
- AMD misses on its third quarter results.
- The company issues a dismal outlook for the current fourth quarter.
- The recent sell-off is warranted, but creates a long term highly risky, but potentially highly lucrative investment opportunity.
- AMD missed the revenue and EPS consensus of the current quarter and guided soft for the fourth quarter.
- 2015 will be challenging for AMD but I remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the company.
- The initiation report mentioned challenges in the high-end computing space but failed to see the pressure on the graphics business from Nvidia.
Thu, Nov. 13, 8:37 AM
- The WSJ reports Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has reached a deal to buy Israeli cybersecurity/identity-protection software firm Aorato for ~$200M, and plans to announce it today. The paper reported in July a deal was close.
- Aorato's products complement Microsoft's Active Directory enterprise authentication/ID-management software service, since they analyze Active Directory interactions to create user profiles and detect suspicious activity. There could also be synergies with the cloud-based Azure Active Directory service.
- In its latest effort to grow its developer base (previous) and support rival platforms, Microsoft is open-sourcing the server stack for its.NET software framework (underpins many Windows apps), and allowing developers to write server/cloud-based .NET apps for Linux and Mac OS. The move could help .NET better compete against alternatives such as Ruby on Rails and PHP.
- Microsoft has also: 1) Launched a free version of its mainstay Visual Studio 2013 app development suite for non-enterprise users. 2) Previewed Visual Studio 2015, which the company says is "built from the ground up with support for iOS, Android and Windows."
- Microsoft says it will "shortly" reach 10M Xbox One sales, and that sales have tripled since a $50 price cut went into effect on Nov. 2. The latest figures still leaves the One's total sales behind the 13.5M seen by the PS4 as of the end of Q3.
- The pickup in Xbox One sales is a positive for CPU/GPU supplier AMD, which was estimated by IHS last year to receive $110 per unit.
- Update: Microsoft has confirmed the Aorato acquisition. "We are making this acquisition to give customers a new level of protection against threats through better visibility into their identity infrastructure."
Fri, Oct. 31, 5:28 PM
- Sony (SNE +5.8%) sold 3.3M PlayStation 4 units in calendar Q3, up from 2.7M in Q2 and easily outpacing the 2.4M Xboxes sold by Microsoft in Q3. In addition, Sony reported its gaming unit posted a $195M profit, up from $43M in Q2 thanks to rising PS4 game royalties.
- VG Chartz estimates Sony has cumulatively sold 12.3M PS4 units since last fall, and Microsoft 6.1M Xbox One units. To boost sales, Microsoft recently slashed Xbox One prices by $50 - starting Nov. 2, the One sells for $349 without a Kinect, and $449 with one.
- Electronic Arts (EA +2.8%), Activision (ATVI +1.9%), and Take-Two (TTWO +4.7%) outperformed again today. All three game developers rallied yesterday after Take-Two posted a big FQ2 beat on the back of strong sales for Grand Theft Auto V, NBA 2K14, and Borderlands 2. EA jumped thanks to an FQ2 beat and strong EPS guidance the day before.
- GameStop (GME +1.5%) and PS4 CPU/GPU supplier AMD (AMD +1.8%) are likely also happy with Sony's PS4 sales figure.
Mon, Oct. 27, 5:41 PM
- Forrest Norrod, formerly the head of Dell's server ops, is now the GM of AMD's enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom chip unit. He'll report to new CEO Lisa Su.
- Before running its server unit, Norrod was once in charge of Dell's global engineering teams. He also once ran Cyrix and National Semi's integrated x86 CPU business.
- AMD's enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom chip sales rose 21% Y/Y in Q3, and accounted for 45% of total revenue. For now, the unit's sales depend heavily on PS4/Xbox One APU shipments, but AMD is making big investments to grow its server CPU lineup (both ARM and x86).
Mon, Oct. 27, 10:29 AM
- Bloomberg reports Microsoft (MSFT -0.7%) has a test version of Windows Server that runs on ARM (ARMH -0.9%) server CPUs. Currently, Windows Server only runs on x86 CPUs, primarily from Intel (INTC -0.7%).
- Windows Server support would provide a major boost to the fledgling ARM server CPU ecosystem; software support has remained a question mark for it even as the likes of Dell, H-P, and Facebook gave their backing. OS support would still need to be followed by app support.
- AMD (AMD +0.4%), Cavium (CAVM -1.3%), AppliedMicro (AMCC -1.8%), and Marvell (MRVL -0.6%) have each unveiled ARM server CPUs, while often promising better power efficiency than Intel's offerings. Supporters have also noted the potential for ARM-based parts to be optimized for specific tasks (security, storage, networking, etc.); Cavium is among the leaders here.
- Intel, for its part, is countering with both low-power Atom server CPUs, and more power-efficient versions of its mainstay Xeon server CPUs (such as the just-launched Grantley). IDC estimates x86 servers (largely running on Windows Server of Linux) accounted for 78% of Q2 server industry revenue.
- Providing ARM support for Windows Server would fit with Satya Nadella's strong interest in broadening the device/platform reach of Microsoft's software and services.
Fri, Oct. 17, 9:33 AM
- With shares near their 52-week lows going into earnings, Pac Crest has upgraded AMD to Sector Perform after the chipmaker guided for a 13% Q/Q revenue drop and announced it's cutting 7% of its workforce.
- Pac Crest, which downgraded AMD (and Nvidia) back in June, cites low expectations. Meanwhile, Canaccord has downgraded AMD to Hold, and several firms have lowered their targets.
- On the Q3 CC (transcript), new CEO Lisa Su disclosed AMD has secured two new semi-custom SoC design wins, one of which is for a 64-bit ARM (server?) CPU. The SoCs are expected to produce $1B in revenue over three years; initial revenue is expected in 2016.
- CFO Devinder Kumar stated the expected 13% Q4 revenue drop is "weighted towards semi-custom" (i.e. console APUs). AMD announced in July Q3 would be its peak 2014 quarter for console revenue.
- In the Q&A, Su insisted AMD isn't planning to discontinue any product lines at this time, and that the job cuts are focused on "streamlining [AMD's] investments." She also noted AMD's CPU sales are faring worse than Intel's in part because of AMD's stronger reliance on consumer sales.
- Q3 results, guidance/details
Thu, Oct. 16, 5:37 PM
Thu, Oct. 16, 4:29 PM
- In addition to missing Q3 estimates, AMD is guiding for Q4 revenue to be down 13% Q/Q (+/- 3%). At the midpoint, that implies revenue of $1.24B, well below a $1.48B consensus.
- The chipmaker plans to cut 7% of its workforce, with most of the cuts happening by year's end. It also plans to lower its real estate footprint. AMD forecasts restructuring charges of $57M, and $85M in 2015 opex savings.
- Q3 computing/graphics sales -6% Q/Q and -16% Y/Y (share loss to Intel/Nvidia). CPU ASP rose Q/Q and Y/Y due to a higher notebook CPU mix. GPU ASP fell Q/Q (lower desktop prices) but rose Y/Y. The division had a $17M op. loss.
- Enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom revenue (inc. console-related sales) +6% Q/Q and +21% Y/Y. The division had a $108M op. profit.
- Gross margin was 35%, flat Q/Q and -100 bps Y/Y. Ahead of the job cuts, GAAP R&D spend fell 3% Y/Y to $278M, and MG&A spend 3% to $150M.
- The AH decline comes in spite of a lot of bad news being priced in over recent weeks.
- Q3 results, PR
Thu, Oct. 16, 4:17 PM| 41 Comments
Thu, Oct. 16, 2:33 PM
- Not surprisingly, the iPad Air 2's (AAPL -0.9%) pricing starts at $499 (16GB Wi-Fi). As with the iPhone 6, Apple has doubled storage capacities for higher-tier models; 64GB and 128GB Wi-Fi-only models respectively go for $599 and $699. The original Air now starts at $399.
- Very little time was spent discussing the iPad Mini 3. Moreover, while the Air 2 features (like the iPhone 6) 802.11ac Wi-Fi and an 8MP rear camera, the Mini 3 offers 802.11n Wi-Fi and a 5MP camera.
- The Mini 3's pricing starts at $399, as expected. The Mini 2 (also has a retina display) now starts at $299, and (notably) the original, non-retina Mini is being kept around with a $249 starting price. The price points for the older models could help Apple grab some mid-range share from Android rivals.
- A 27" retina iMac featuring an eye-popping 5210x2880 resolution (67% more pixels than 4K) has been shown off. "It's the world's highest-resolution display," declares VP Phil Schiller. The system is still only 5mm thick at its edges, and its display consumes 30% less power than its predecessor's.
- Retina iMac models run on quad-core Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Core i5 and i7 CPUs (3.5GHz.-4GHz.), and starts at $2,499. AMD (AMD +1.3%) is supplying a high-end Radeon R9 GPU. The 27" non-retina iMac will start at $1,799, and its 21.5" peer $1,099.
- Apple is counting on its new iPads to spark a sales rebound: iPad revenue fell 8% Y/Y in calendar Q2 amid extended upgrade cycles and share gains for low-end Android tablets.
- Analyst/Apple fan Ben Thompson recently argued the iPad has been hurt by softening developer support relative to the iPhone, along with the popularity of bigger phones and thinner/lighter PCs (such as the MacBook Air).
- Event webcast. Live blogs: The Verge, Engadget
- Update: One more product launch: The Mac Mini has finally been refreshed. The new version goes for $499-$999, and features dual-core Intel Core i5 CPUs.
Wed, Oct. 15, 5:35 PM
Tue, Oct. 14, 6:07 PM
- Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) Data Center Group saw broad-based strength in Q3, CEO Brian Krzanich noted on the CC. Enterprise sales rose 11%, networking 16%, HPC 22% (good for MLNX), and cloud 34%.
- He added Intel's new Grantley Xeon CPUs are seeing strong uptake, and that the chip giant now has 35 custom Xeon SKUs for various clients. Facebook, eBay, Microsoft, and other Web giants have been avid buyers of custom Intel server CPUs.
- 15M tablet CPUs were shipped in Q3; Intel still expects 40M in 2014. The company promises a "substantial improvement" in mobile chip profitability next year as contra revenue payments drop, but doesn't expect the segment to turn profitable.
- Aside from a stabilizing market, Intel thinks PC division sales benefited from share gains (no doubt against AMD) and higher inventories (they were depressed a year ago). A couple of analysts pressed Intel on inventories; the company insists customers have an "appropriate amount." A mix shift towards Bay Trail Atom CPUs pressured ASPs.
- On CNBC (video), CFO Stacy Smith noted developed markets are still faring better than emerging markets, and argued Microchip (responsible for the warning heard round the chip world) "[plays] in different segments." Linear Technology, which has more customer overlap with Microchip, just missed estimates and issued light guidance.
- INTC +2.7% AH. AMD +1.2%. MU +1.8%.
- Q3 results, details.
Mon, Oct. 13, 5:38 PM
Mon, Oct. 13, 5:17 PM
- AMD has fallen sharply in AH trading. No news has yet hit the wires to explain the drop. Q3 results are due on Thursday.
- Shares fell hard last Thursday, as investors questioned the timing of the chipmaker's CEO change announcement. They also tumbled on Friday, taking part in a broader chip stock rout triggered by Microchip's warning.
Fri, Oct. 10, 1:42 PM
- Following Microchip's warning and related prediction of a chip industry correction, Goldman's James Covello thinks there's 15%-20% downside in industry names.
- Covello, who lowered his industry view to Cautious in August: "The last time Microchip negatively preannounced was October 15, 2012 (3% sales miss). Between October 1 and December 31, Street 2013 sales estimates for the Semi group were revised down 6% on average."
- He adds several datapoints suggest the industry has been overheating. Among them: Semi revenue growth has outpaced end-market growth, and supply chain inventory dollars rose 3% more than their 3-year average in Q2.
- "Nobody will be spared," predicts Hedgeye's Craig Berger. Benchmark's Gary Mobley observes 5 of the 6 chip stocks to have made Q3 pre-announcements have thus done so to the downside.
- Worth noting: Mobile chipmaker Silicon Motion (SIMO -8.9%) is the one chipmaker to have positively pre-announced. It might not be a coincidence that Microchip has relatively low mobile exposure.
- Observing U.S. macro data remains positive even as China and Europe soften, Longbow's JoAnne Feeney remains bullish long-term on select names. However, she has cut her short-term rating on Linear (LLTC -3.8%) to Sell, and removed IDT (IDTI -7.1%) from her trading long list.
- In addition to the names previously mentioned, the following chip stocks are seeing steep losses: AMD -5.1%. FCS -13.6%. NXPI -11.2%. CODE -11%. LSCC -9.6%. SIMG -8.1%. IPHI -7.7%. ISIL -9.5%. CY -6.9%. RMBS -7.1%. QUIK -5.7%. SQNS -5.1%. IMOS -6.5%.
- Foundries and contract manufacturers are also selling off: TSM -3.9%. UMC -2%. SMI -2.4%. SANM -11.7%. FLEX -6.8%. JBL -4%.
- Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Thu, Oct. 9, 9:14 AM
Wed, Oct. 8, 6:18 PM
AMD vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR