May 18, 2015, 12:56 PM
- Either economic trends improve, prompting the Fed to hike rates, or - "more ominously," says Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett - macro conditions do not recover, leading to EPS downgrades.
- His suggestion: Look to cut risk rather than maximize return.
- Josh Brown pulls this chart from the report showing a whopper of a divergence building between the direction of stocks (up) and U.S. equity flows (down). Where's the bid coming from? Buybacks?
- ETFs: CFP, CRF, VV, USA, SCHX, TY, AOA, ZF, FEX, GTAA, GMOM, AOM, AOK, AOR, JKD, EEH, GAA, GAL, RLY, EQL, EPRO, DBIZ, MATH, IWL, GIVE, ERW, FWDD, ZLRG, SYE, SBUS
May 14, 2015, 11:49 AM
- "This is when we find out if hedge funds really hedge," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt, musing on the impact of coming rate hikes. “Some of us feel like the informed citizens of Pompeii around 79 AD: we are grateful for the lovely sea views but worry about the volcano in the background.”
- Watt takes note of rising correlations this year, with the global bond market "trading as one," and being matched by moves in equities. This also impacts real estate, credit markets, and commodities, he says.
- BlackRock sees correlations rising even further as the Fed hikes, with the chance of both bonds and stocks heading south at the same time (not a common event since the "Greenspan put" came into being).
- Source: WSJ
- ETFs: CFP, TY, AOA, GTAA, GMOM, AOM, AOR, AOK, GAA, GAL, RLY, EPRO, DBIZ, MATH, GIVE
Feb. 9, 2015, 5:08 PM
- January saw a record $17B of net outflows from stock ETPs, according to ETFGI, with fixed income and commodity funds seeing much of that money - inflows of $7.5B and $4.1B respectively.
- The moves came as the S&P 500 fell a big 4% for the month and bond prices shot higher.
- ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, VV, SCHX, SCHZ, FEX, GTAA, AOK, JKD, AOM, AOR, EEH, LAG, RLY, EQL, EPRO, GAL, DBIZ, MATH, SAGG, IWL, GBF, FBND, GIVE, ERW, FWDD, IUSB, SYE, VBND, GAA, SBUS, ZLRG
Dec. 16, 2014, 1:07 PM
- Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed expect difficulty over the next three years thanks to rising interest rates, according to Natixis' survey of 642 institutional investors collectively managing $31T in assets.
- With rates (presumably) on the rise, the top three ways those surveyed intend to position their portfolios are 1) Shorten duration (61%) 2) Cut exposure to fixed-income (46%) 3) Increase use of alternative strategies (36%).
- Predicting which asset class will be strongest in 2015, equities - particularly those in the U.S. - win out with 46%. Another 28% see alternative assets as the place to be, while just 13% expect bonds to put in another great performance, 7% real estate, 3% energy, and 2% cash.
- Source: Nataxis Global Asset Management
- ETFs: AOA, PERM, GTAA, AOK, AOM, AOR, RLY, EPRO, GAL, DBIZ, MATH, GIVE
Oct. 14, 2014, 2:52 PM
- Just 32% of fund managers expect the global economy to strengthen over the next twelve months, according to the latest BAML Fund Manager Survey. It's the weakest showing in two years. Alongside, corporate earnings expectations are the poorest in 18 months.
- As a result, money managers have slashed overweight equity allocations to a two-year low of 34%, cut emerging market exposure for the first time in five years, boosted fixed-income holdings, gotten more underweight commodities, and raised cash levels to 4.9%.
- “Cash balances are high, but investors are retreating to benchmark positions rather than staging an exodus from markets,” says BAML's top market honcho Michael Hartnett.
- With interest rates scraping zero across the developed world, just 18% of those surveyed believe monetary policy is too stimulative. Yikes!
- ETFs: VV, SCHX, AOA, PERM, GTAA, FEX, CPI, AOK, JKD, AOM, AOR, RLY, EEH, EPRO, EQL, DBIZ, GAL, MATH, IWL, TZY, TZW, TGR, RRF, TDN, FWDD, TZV, GIVE, ERW, TZI, TZE, TDV, TZD, TZL, TDD, SYE, TZG, TZO, TDH, TDX
Jul. 15, 2014, 9:28 AM
- Global asset allocators are a net 61% overweight equities, according to the latest read from BAML, the highest amount since early 2011 and the second-strongest response in the report's history. Overlooked apparently, are valuations, with a net 21% of fund managers viewing stocks as overvalued, the highest read since 2000.
- "Improving investor sentiment on global growth, inflation, equities and risk-taking are all testament to a potential macro normalization in the second half," says BAML Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. "This could eventually feed into a normalization of rates. If growth does pick up, volatility will rise too."
- ETFs: VV, SCHX, AOA, GTAA, FEX, JKD, AOK, AOM, AOR, EPRO, EQL, RLY, DBIZ, GAL, MATH, EEH, IWL, GIVE, ERW, FWDD, SYE
Jul. 7, 2014, 3:11 PM
- You need to look at more than the size of flows, says Deutsche's Sebastian Mercado, who instead relies on what he calls "flow trend formation." For example, noting that ETFs attracted $25B in a month is of little use, but a pattern of $1B of inflows every day for a month is a sign of a demand shift for that asset class.
- The bank is now publishing a Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal report, and the latest one sees strong equity flows across all regions, particularly Europe and North America, more particularly still in periphery states like Spain (EWP) and Italy (EWI). Treasury and corporate bond flows are negative and the rally in gold has failed to attract much in the way of inflows into those ETFs.
- ETFs: AOA, GTAA, AOK, AOM, AOR, EPRO, RLY, DBIZ, GAL, MATH, GIVE
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