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Tue, Jan. 26, 7:50 AM
Tue, Jan. 26, 7:14 AM
Mon, Jan. 25, 5:30 PM
Fri, Jan. 15, 10:57 AM
- The Obama administration announces it will place a moratorium on new leases for coal mining on public lands, while the Interior Department studies the environmental impact and conducts a review of leases that could take three years.
- The moratorium is limited to new coal leasing, with exceptions for the metallurgical coal used in steel production, and companies that already hold federal coal leases such as Peabody Energy (BTU -9.2%) can continue to mine those reserves during and after the moratorium.
- Nearly 40% of U.S. coal now comes from federal land, much of it from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana.
- KOL -4.5%, CLD -7.6%, CNX -6.6%, CLF -6.6%, WLB -5.3%, ARLP -2.5%.
Mon, Jan. 11, 2:49 PM
- Arch Coal (ACI -50.7%) is cut in half following news it has filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will be delisted from the NYSE, and the miner says its discussions with customers indicate that even after tumbling domestic coal demand the past eight years, "2016 pricing will remain weaker than previously anticipated."
- ACI's default on $3.2B of debt bring the metals and mining sector’s trailing 12-month default rate to 15% from 11% at the end of December and the default rate for the coal subsector an "unprecedented" 43%, according to Fitch Ratings.
- Analysts say investors should expect more such bankruptcies among commodity companies this year, as a strong dollar and slowing global demand growth should keep downward pressure on commodity prices.
- ACI's bankruptcy helps drag down other mining names today: BTU -19%, CNX -10.8%, YZC -2.3%, NRP -7.2%, CLD -11.4%, WLB -5.1%, ARLP +0.1%, KOL -2.6%.
Dec. 14, 2015, 2:25 PM
- Coal stocks sink (KOL -1.7%) as renewable energy stocks rally following this weekend's climate change accord reached in Paris, which could foreshadow tougher worldwide regulations on coal and oil companies.
- The details of implementation will be left to individual nations, with a range of possible policy measures which could include tighter environmental regulations, taxes on carbon, and a shifting of government subsidies; analysts generally believe the net impact will be a further gradual reduction of global oil and coal demand growth over the decades to some, rather than an immediate downward revision.
- Among coal focused stocks: BTU -12.4%, CLD -10.8%, WLB -9.3%, CLF -5.2%, ARLP -4.4%, ACI +1.2%.
Nov. 6, 2015, 5:57 PM
- Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP) says it is cutting production at its higher-cost mines and has issued notices to cut 260 jobs in response to continued uncertainty in coal markets.
- ARLP says it has reduced output at its Elk Creek mine in Kentucky and its Gibson North and South mines in Indiana, while stopping production at its Onton mine in Kentucky.
- ARLP confirms its previously announced earnings guidance, including full-year 2015 full-year coal production of 41.1M-41.7M tons and sales volumes of 40.9M-41.5M, and 2016 coal production and sales volumes of 40M-45M tons.
Oct. 27, 2015, 7:49 AM
- Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP) declares $0.675/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 12.41%
- Payable Nov. 13; for shareholders of record Nov. 6; ex-div Nov. 4.
Oct. 27, 2015, 7:12 AM
- Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP): Q3 EPS of $0.61 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.88.
- Revenue of $566.45M (-0.5% Y/Y) misses by $60.55M.
Oct. 26, 2015, 5:30 PM
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Oct. 7, 2015, 12:41 PM
- Peabody Energy (BTU -8.9%) and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -1.6%) give back some of yesterday's gains, as Morgan Stanley says coal prices could remain weak for a few more years and forecasts U.S. utility coal burn to fall by 75 metric tons Y/Y to 774 metric tons in 2015 and remain near that level until 2020.
- The firm downgrades BTU and CLD to Equal Weight from Overweight, saying both companies need an uptick in coal pricing to remain or return to free cash flow positive.
- Also: ACI -12.2%, WLB -1.4%, CNX +4.4%, ARLP +2.6%.
- Earlier: Things can't get much worse for coal after disastrous 2015, analyst says (Oct. 6)
Oct. 6, 2015, 7:11 PM
- Most utilities that are able to switch to cleaner burning and cheaper natural gas already have done so, BB&T Capital said in a new report that may have helped propel coal company stocks (NYSEARCA:KOL) to big gains today.
- Newly implemented federal regulations prompted closures of several coal-fired power plants in 2015, and natural gas prices that have dropped 37% in the past year made that fuel more attractive than coal for electricity generation.
- "The good news is that we can’t even fathom a fall in coal demand in 2016 that resembles anything like what happened in 2015,” BB&T's Mark Levin writes.
- The worst case for coal next year is for demand to slide another 2%-4% rather than the 10% drop suffered in 2015, according to Levin, but Bloomberg analysts warn that coal producers may want to brace themselves as the flood of cheap gas flowing into power plants shows no signs of receding.
- In today's trade: BTU +34.9%, ACI +33.3%, CLD +6.6%, ARLP +3.1%, CNX +1%, WLB -0.5%.
Oct. 1, 2015, 12:34 PM
- Coal stocks (KOL -0.7%) are broadly lower after Moody's issues a weak forecast for the North American coal industry, saying the outlook "remains negative amid ongoing challenges for both metallurgical and thermal coal, including declining coal consumption and low met coal prices."
- The ratings agency forecasts a ~10% Y/Y decline in the industry's EBITDA for 2016, following the 25% drop it anticipates for 2015.
- BTU -10.7% after allowing for a 1-for-15 reverse split that took effect today; also ACI -5.4%, CNX -6.4%, WLB -5.1%, CLD -3%, ARLP -0.7%.
Sep. 19, 2015, 8:25 AM
- Metal and mining stocks have been hit hard in recent months, but analysts at FBR Capital argue that there are still attractive names to own in the sector.
- Companies with exposure to the zinc and met coal markets look appealing, FBR says, as supply reductions could act as a positive catalyst for prices; Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) is the firm's top pick there, with Horsehead Holding (NASDAQ:ZINC) the favorite small-cap idea.
- The firm sees "no structural turnaround for domestic thermal coal," but thinks the rate of decline will begin to slow next year, justifying Outperform ratings on Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ:ARLP) and Westmoreland Coal (NASDAQ:WLB); Cloud Peak Energy (NYSE:CLD) and Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) are rated Underperform.
- FBR is fairly upbeat on steel names, initiating SunCoke Energy (NYSE:SXC) and SunCoke Partners (NYSE:SXCP) at Outperform, as SunCoke’s long-lived coke assets are able to generate strong margins “in almost any U.S. steel environment"; Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) is rated Market Perform.
- The copper market will remain in surplus through 2017, FBR says, but it rates Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) at Outperform; Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is rated Market Perform.
- Among precious metals miners, the firm prefers Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD), the latter "a diversified company with a solid balance sheet and attractive acquisition opportunities."
Sep. 2, 2015, 3:23 PM
- Volatility in U.S. coal equities (NYSEARCA:KOL) has reached the highest level since March 2010, as miners that fell more than 90% jumped to a two-week rally that abruptly ended yesterday when they slid as part of the stock market's wider selloff.
- Short sellers are a big factor: Last week's bounce suggests short sellers were fleeing their positions, which pushed up prices - Peabody Energy (BTU -3.6%), for example, had averaged ~15M trades/day for a month before Thursday, when it totaled nearly 60M.
- The companies also are trying to restructure their debt: After reports said Arch Coal (ACI +6.8%) was looking to compromise with lenders opposed to its proposed debt swap, and thus stave off the threat of bankruptcy, shares soared 633% in nine trading days.
- But Bloomberg says ACI is having trouble completing the swap, with senior lenders still opposed, and bond traders do not think the deal would be enough to fend off a bankruptcy.
- Also: CLD +1.3%, WLB +3%, ARLP -2.2%.
Sep. 1, 2015, 3:39 PM
- Coal stocks (KOL -4.4%) are surrendering large chunks of their recent gains, as might be expected, but J.P. Morgan analysts think coal's share of the U.S. power market might have hit its low point, seeing grid inflexibility making a reduction in coal’s share below ~30% difficult without more investment in the grid, pipelines and more gas power plants.
- The JPM team thinks it is reasonable to assume that once the U.S. gas market begins to balance and the gas price picks up, coal’s market share will recover to the mid or even high 30s prior to the introduction of the greenhouse gas rule, assuming the rule overcomes its many legal challenges.
- Meanwhile, the firm cuts its 2016 EPS estimate on Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP -1.7%) to $0.83 from $0.89, and imitates a 2016 estimate on Peabody Energy (BTU -17.98%) for a loss of $0.37, Arch Coal (ACI -28.9%) for a loss of $6.78, and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -22.1%) for a loss of $0.21.
Alliance Resource Partners LP is a diversified producer and marketer of coal to United States utilities and industrial users. It operates ten underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia.
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