Don Dion • Fri, Dec. 5
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- ASPN had a disappointing IPO in June and has seen significant declines since.
- On December 10, ASPN will experience the end of its six- month lockup period; heavy insider selling could hurt ASPN even further.
- The firm's recurring net losses and a cyclical, complex building materials market could prompt major pre-IPO shareholders to cash out and move on to other projects.
- With academic research supporting price declines around the lockup expiration event, we suggest savvy investors consider this a short opportunity.
- I don't believe ASPN can sell to the US markets in size at profitable pricing.
- ASPN needs substantial funding to complete its growth strategy which should be extremely dilutive after a bad 2015.
- ASPN, according to an industry insider source, has no value prop.
Aspen Aerogels Balance Sheet And Shares Get A Reset Which Opens The Door For An Easy Short
- ASPN, despite its history of incompetence, was able to get to debt free as a result of its recent IPO.
- ASPN should see a reduction of at least ~$15 million in interest expense during 2H/14 which has given bulls an excuse to prop the stock off the lows.
- ASPN's operations have continued to get worse sequentially across all durations yet bulls have pumped the stock as a result of recent fund raising.
Aspen Aerogels' IPO Should Be Treated As A Case Study For What To Avoid
- ASPN has had to raise funds in each of the last three years to stay solvent.
- ASPN has had to materially slow CAPEX and previously expressed growth initiatives to stay solvent.
- ASPN will need in between $80-$100 million in future capital to complete its growth strategy in its entirety.
Aspen Aerogels: Severe Margin And Financial Worries Surround This Recent IPO
- Aspen Aerogels witnessed a very difficult public offering.
- Growth is solid, yet gross margins are very poor resulting in operating losses.
- Continued capital expenditure requirements and leverage create real financial risks.
- An energy technology company that designs, develops and manufactures innovative, high-performance aerogel insulation used in large-scale energy infrastructure facilities.
- 30%-plus rate of revenue growth.
- Improving operating income (loss) percent of revenue.
Avoid IPO Of Aspen Aerogels: CEO Knows How To Get Paid And Lose Money
- Massachusetts-based ASPN, a designer and manufacturer of aerogel insulation for energy infrastructure facilities, plans to raise $100.0 million in its upcoming IPO.
- While ASPN has expanded its revenues fairly successfully since 2008, the firm is still a long way from profitability and will continue accumulate a deficit for some time.
- We recommend investors wait on this IPO. CEO may be excessively compensated.
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