Tue, Aug. 11, 12:59 PM
- The Fed may be determined to hike rates, but deflationary signals are everywhere, with Beijing the latest government to acknowledge such with its devaluation overnight.
- Crude oil has taken out a new six-year low, tumbling another 4% to $43.15 per barrel, and copper's 3% decline has brought it to a fresh six-year low. The grains are all down by 2% or more, but gold is marginally higher.
- The major U.S. averages are down more than 1%, and Europe fell 1.5% today.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by a full ten basis points to 2.13%.
- Leading the heavily discounted mREIT sector higher are Annaly Capital (NLY +1.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.2%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.6%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +1.3%), Capstead (CMO +1%), Anworth (ANH +1.4%), Dynex Capital (DX +2.6%), and AG Mortgage (MITT +1.6%).
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
- In equity REITs: National Retail (NNN +1.2%), Equity Residential (EQR +1.5%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.2%), General Growth (GGP +1.9%), Kimco (KIM +1.4%), Whitestone REIT (WSR +2.9%), Washington Real Estate (WRE +1.2%), Hospitality Properties (HPT +2.3%), Chamber Street (CSG +1.1%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX
Mon, Jul. 27, 4:25 PM
- Q2 core FFO per share of $1.87 up 10% from one year ago.
- Established communities increase in rental revenue of 4.7% Y/Y, with rents up 5% and occupancy down 0.3%. NOI for established communities of $244.1M up 5%.
- NoCal rental rates up 10%, SoCal up 6.2%, Pacific NW up 7.4%. Mid-Atlantic rental rates up 0.4%, Metro NY/NJ up 3.8%, New England up 3.4%.
- Full-year core FFO per share guidance is lifted to $7.53 from the $7.35 given in January. CEO Tim Naughton: "For the balance of the year, we expect accelerating apartment demand to support stronger performance across our business."
- Earnings call tomorrow at 11 ET
- Previously: AvalonBay Communities misses by $0.05, beats on revenue (July 27)
- AVB flat after hours.
Mon, Jul. 27, 4:10 PM
Sun, Jul. 26, 5:35 PM
Fri, Jul. 17, 9:57 AM
- A combination of sluggish job growth and abundant supply has made Washington, D.C. one of the worst U.S. markets for landlords, but rebounding employment is leading to renewed development.
- Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) plans to more than double its stock of apartments over the new three years, Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT) has 862 units under construction, and AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB) is boosting its investment in what may be a coming hot neighborhood. The nation's largest apartment REIT, Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) is set to start work on a 174-unit building in Georgetown stalled since 2012. Still a bit wary, UDR is buying rather than building - last month it agreed to acquire six suburban communities from Home Properties.
- Effective rents fell 1.4% in 2013, and rose just 0.4% last year - enough to scare off smaller players. REITs however, have access to relatively cheap capital, giving them the opportunity to step in while the market is soft to hopefully take advantage of the next upturn.
- According to Axiometrics, effective rents will climb 3.4% in 2016 versus 2.9% for the entire country. 2107 should see a 4.5% increase, with 3.6% estimated for 2018.
- Source: Bloomberg
- Previously: Multi-family action leads gain in housing starts (July 17)
Thu, Jul. 2, 3:01 PM
- Even as public market valuations have pulled back, says Citi's Michael Bilerman, private market pricing has remained strong, widening the gap between price and value.
- While fund flows are a negative, Bilerman notes an uptick in interest from market generalists, suggesting they're beginning to spot value in the sector.
- Healthcare: The REITs here are particularly sensitive to rising rates given high external growth expectations and accretive "spread" investing. Bilerman has Overweights in large-cap Ventas (NYSE:VTR) and small-cap Sabra Health Care (NASDAQ:SBRA).
- Lodging: Supply is largely intact and demand continues to improve, hopefully setting up a strong H2. He continues to favor C-corps like Hilton Worldwide (NYSE:HLT), but also has Overweight positions on Host Hotels (NYSE:HST) and LaSalle Hotel (NYSE:LHO).
- Office/Industrial: This sector offers particular opportunity for outperformance, and he prefers urban names, Boston Property (NYSE:BXP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and Vornado (NYSE:VNO), and only select suburban names Parkway (NYSE:PKY) and Mack Cali (NYSE:CLI). In industrial, he's Overweight EastGroup (NYSE:EGP), Prologis (NYSE:PLD), and DCT Industrial (NYSE:DCT).
- Apartments: Growth remains strong and valuations attractive. He's Overweight large caps AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), and UDR, as well as value name Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT).
- Retail: He's still Overweight Class A mall REITs, but is getting more bullish on strip mall names, with Kimco (NYSE:KIM), Acadia (NYSE:AKR), and Weingarten (NYSE:WRI) upgraded to Buy. Other top picks are General Growth (NYSE:GGP), Simon Property (NYSE:SPG), Kite Realty (NYSE:KRG), and Forest City (NYSE:FCE.A).
- Previously: Citi spots value in beaten-up REIT sector (July 2)
Mon, Jun. 22, 12:48 PM
- Home Properties is up 2.3% after agreeing to sell itself to Lone Star Funds, but the news isn't doing a whole lot to lift M&A animal spirits in the sector for now.
- As part of the deal UDR (UDR +0.5%) will acquire from Lone Star up to $908M of Home Properties' apartments in the D.C. area. The purchase is expected to boost AFFO by $0.015 per share in 2016.
- Presentation slides
- Earlier this year, Associated Estates agreed to sell itself to a Brookfield Asset Management fund, and last year there was Essex Property Trust's purchase of BRE Properties.
- Equity Residential (EQR -0.3%), AvalonBay (AVB), Post Properties (PPS -0.2%), Aimco (AIV +0.2%), Camden Property (CPT +0.1%), Mid-America (MAA +0.2%), Trade Street Residential (TSRE), Investors Real Estate (IRET -0.4%), NexPoint Residential (NXRT -0.5%), Bluerock Residential (BRG -1.4%).
Mon, Jun. 8, 4:26 PM
Wed, Jun. 3, 10:25 AM
- There's a bit of a selling panic going on in fixed income, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another nine basis points on this session to 2.35%, and now up 25 bps this week. The carnage across the pond is worse.
- The IYR is lower by 0.9%.
- Individual equity REITs: Realty Income (O -1.2%), Ventas (VTR -2.5%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -0.9%), HCP (HCP -1.5%), Equity Residential (EQR -2.1%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.8%), Simon Property (SPG -1.3%), General Growth (GGP -1.5%), Kimco (KIM -1.2%), Public Storage (PSA -1%), Boston Properties (BXP -1.1%), Hospitality Properties (HPT -1.2%), Liberty Property (LPT -1%), Campus Crest (CCG -2.2%).
- Mortgage REITs: Annaly (NLY -1.2%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.9%), Invesco (IVR -1.1%), Hatteras (HTS -1%), Ellington Residential (EARN -1%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, LMBS, IARAX
Fri, May 22, 9:25 AM
Tue, May 5, 10:31 AM
- A big move higher in interest rates continues, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another six basis points to 2.20% - roughly the level at which it started the year (it fell as low as 1.65% in early February).
- The move here is small-time compared to what's going on across the pond, as the absurd levels of two weeks ago become somewhat less absurd. Ten-year Bund yields are up to 0.51% from 0.05%. Italian 10-years are up 30 bps today to 1.78%, with a similar move in Spain.
- The IYR is down 1.1%.
- Individual names: Realty Income (O -1.3%), Senior Housing Properties (SNH -1.5%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW -2.4%), Gramercy Property Trust (GPT -1.8%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.4%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.5%), Government Properties (GOV -2.3%), Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB -2%), Eastgroup Properties (EGP -1.6%), American Campus (ACC -1.4%).
- Mortgage REITS (REM -0.6%) are outperforming the equity names: Annaly (NLY -0.7%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.6%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.7%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.3%), Invesco (IVR -0.2%).
Mon, Apr. 27, 4:33 PM
- Q1 FFO of $1.75 per share up 7.4% from a year ago, $0.02 higher than guidance, but missing Street estimates by $0.08.
- For established communities, rental revenue up 4.3% due to higher average rental rates (occupancy was flat). NOI up 5.3%. Northern and Southern California and the Pacific NW were strong, with rental rates up 8.9%, 5.6%, and 6.2%, respectively. Mid-Atlantic renal rates lagged, up 0.1%.
- Q2 outlook: Core FFO of $1.80-$1.84.
- Conference call tomorrow at 11 ET
- Previously: AvalonBay Communities misses by $0.08, misses on revenue (April 27)
- AVB +0.3% after hours
Mon, Apr. 27, 4:23 PM
Sun, Apr. 26, 5:35 PM
Wed, Apr. 22, 10:02 AM
- Deals in the REIT space are picking up steam, with the latest being today's sale of Associated Estates to a Brookfield fund for $2.5B. Associated Estates has been under activist pressure for a number of months, and one wonders if any other apartment names might be next in line.
- Sector giants Equity Residential (EQR +1.3%), AvalonBay (AVB +1.2%), and Essex Property (ESS +1.2%) don't seem like likely targets, but are nicely higher on the session.
- Others: Post Properties (PPS +1.7%), UDR (UDR +1.6%), Aimco (AIV +1.3%), Camden Property (CPT +1.2%), Home Properties (HME +1.4%), Mid-America Apartments (MAA +1.1%), Investors Real Estate (IRET +0.8%).
- ETFs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, KBWY, DRV, REK, FRI, FTY, PSR, FREL, WREI
Tue, Apr. 21, 3:54 PM
- The REITs are down about 8% from their January highs while the homebuilders have posted gains, bringing the ratio of homebuilders to REITs to long-term resistance, says MKM Partners' Jonathan Krinsky, who suggests fading the move.
- Most vulnerable to tactical pullbacks are those homebuilders/suppliers showing the weakest relative strength: Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), Louisiana-Pacific (NYSE:LPX), Taylor Morrisn (NYSE:TMHC), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe Homes (NYSE:TPH).
- The best long REIT ideas are those showing the best relative strength: AvalonBay (NYSE:AVB), Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), Essex Property (NYSE:ESS), Extra Space Storage (NYSE:EXR), Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), General Growth (NYSE:GGP), SL Green (NYSE:SLG), and UDR.
- Those REITs showing poor relative strength or to be avoided or sold: American Tower (NYSE:AMT), American Realty Capital (NASDAQ:ARCP), Brixmor (NYSE:BRX), Host Hotels (NYSE:HST), and Omega Healthcare (NYSE:OHI).
- Source: Barron's
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