Broadcom Limited: Mega Merger Is The Beginning Of A New Era In The Semiconductor Space
SevenSeas Investment Research • 82 Comments
SevenSeas Investment Research • 82 Comments
Will Avago Be A Rock In A Turbulent Semiconductor Sea?
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 10 Comments
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 10 Comments
Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Sep. 3, 2015, 10:09 AM
- Avago Technologies (NASDAQ:AVGO) declares $0.42/share quarterly dividend, 5% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.
- Forward yield 1.35%
- Payable Sept. 30; for shareholders of record Sept. 18; ex-div Sept. 16.
Aug. 28, 2015, 11:10 AM
- There's plenty of precedent for the recent market action, says Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker, noting the market has dropped more than 5% 16 times since March 2009, and each time has moved on to new highs.
- His half-glass view is that the economy is in the middle of its longest expansion ever, and a less-active Fed, a nervous consumer maybe saving more, a lower oil price, and a flattish dollar all argue for continued expansion.
- Morgan's top ideas to buy on the pullback: AGN, AMZN, AAPL, AVGO, BAC, BKU, DAL, GILD, GOOG, GOOGL, HLT, JPM, KR, LEN, LMCK, MGA, MBLY, NWL, QCOM, SABR, CRM, SBAC, SBUX, BX, TMO, VRSK, WWAV, XL.
Aug. 26, 2015, 4:44 PM
- Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) has guided for FQ4 revenue of $1.85B (+/- $25M), slightly below a $1.86B consensus at the midpoint. However, expectations were relatively low, given the soft guidance many chipmakers have provided in July/August.
- Segment performance: FQ3 wireless communications revenue (RF components, boosted by iPhone growth and 4G-driven share gains) rose 7% Q/Q and 69% Y/Y, and made up 35% of revenue. Enterprise storage (boosted by the Emulex acquisition) rose 26% Q/Q and 46% Y/Y, and was 34% of revenue. Wired infrastructure fell 3% Q/Q and rose 7% Y/Y, and was 21% of revenue. Industrial/other fell 21% Q/Q and rose 2% Y/Y, and was 10% of revenue.
- Financials: Gross margin was 61%, flat Q/Q and up 400 bps, and above a guidance midpoint of 60%. FQ4 GM guidance is at 60.5% (+/- 1%). M&A-related cost cuts resulted in operating expenses rising only 7% Y/Y to $330M. Avago ended FQ3 with $1.4B in cash, and $3.9B in debt.
- Avago is up 2% after hours to $118.35. Shares rose 7.1% in regular trading ahead of earnings amid a giant market rally. Merger partner Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) rose 5.6%.
- FQ3 results, PR
Aug. 26, 2015, 4:03 PM
- Avago Technologies (NASDAQ:AVGO): FQ3 EPS of $2.24 beats by $0.10.
- Revenue of $1.75B (+35.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Aug. 25, 2015, 5:35 PM
Aug. 13, 2015, 12:53 PM
- Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) declares $0.14/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 1.09%
- Payable Sept. 14; for shareholders of record Aug. 28; ex-div Aug. 26.
Aug. 6, 2015, 9:53 AM
- Qualcomm (QCOM -0.5%), via its Atheros Wi-Fi/connectivity chip unit, is buying DSL modem/infrastructure IC and home gateway processor vendor Ikanos (NASDAQ:IKAN) for $2.75/share, or roughly $47M based on Ikanos' Q2 diluted share count. The price represents a 57% premium to Ikanos' Wednesday close. The deal is expected to close by year's end.
- Ikanos' products complement Qualcomm/Atheros home Wi-Fi and wireline networking offerings. Qualcomm: "The combination of Qualcomm Atheros' broad home gateway IP portfolio, including Wi-Fi, powerline, small cell, and Ethernet switch technologies, and Ikanos' advanced wired modem technology, is designed to create a complete solution for a wide range of home gateway products to better serve the carrier segment." Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) and Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) are among the other companies competing in this space.
- Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf suggested last week his company would make new chip acquisitions.
Aug. 4, 2015, 2:33 PM
- Apple is down 2.6% on strong volume (adding to recent post-earnings declines), and a slew of iPhone/iPad chip suppliers are also seeing major losses today. The Nasdaq is down just 0.3%, while the Philadelphia Semi Index is down 1.5%.
- RF chipmakers Skyworks (SWKS -5.4%), Qorvo (QRVO -3.8%), and Avago (AVGO -3%) are among the decliners, as are audio codec supplier Cirrus Logic (CRUS -5.5%), motion sensor supplier InvenSense (INVN -5.7%), NFC/motion co-processor supplier NXP (NXPI -3.3%), and LCD driver supplier Synaptics (SYNA -3.8%). The selloff has occurred in the absence of major news
- NXP merger partner Freescale (FSL -2.8%) is also off, as is chip packaging/testing firm Amkor (AMKR -4.2%), which has strong iPhone exposure. Earlier today, the EC announced NXP has offered concessions to win regulatory approval for the Freescale deal, which has a review deadline of Sep. 4. NXP has already agreed to sell its base station power amplifier unit for $1.8B to appease regulators.
- InvenSense reports after the close. The other aforementioned names have already posted their calendar Q2 results.
Jul. 30, 2015, 6:33 PM
- On top of missing Q2 estimates, Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) has guided for Q3 revenue of $2.135B (+/- $75M), below a $2.24B consensus. But with many other chipmakers having already issued soft Q3 outlooks, and Broadcom's shares now effectively linked to Avago's, the numbers are being taken in stride.
- Q2 gross margin was 56.6%, +220 bps Q/Q and +170 bps Y/Y, and above a guidance midpoint of 56%. Q3 is expected to drop to 55.3% (+/- 75 bps) in Q3. R&D spend fell 15% Y/Y to $538M thanks to Broadcom's baseband modem exit, while SG&A spend rose 3% to $188M. $128M was spent on buybacks.
- Separately, the WSJ reports the IRS has declined to promise the stock portion of Avago's (NASDAQ:AVGO) pending $37B deal to merge with Broadcom will be a tax-free transaction for Broadcom shareholders. However, if Avago ($35B market cap) remains larger than Broadcom ($31B market cap), the stock portion will be tax-free. Either way, Broadcom shareholders will owe taxes on the deal's $17B cash payout.
- Should the stock portion of the deal be taxable, Avago plans to offer Broadcom investors tax-deferring units instead of stock. That would let investors decide when to make tax payments.
- BRCM +0.6% AH. AVGO -0.9%.
- Broadcom's Q2 results, PR
Jul. 30, 2015, 4:11 PM
- Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM): Q2 EPS of $0.72 misses by $0.03.
- Revenue of $2.1B (+2.9% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Jul. 29, 2015, 5:35 PM
- AIV, AMCC, AMGN, ATEN, AUY, AVD, AXTI, BAS, BCOR, BCOV, BRCM, BVN, CALD, CATM, CLW, CMLS, COHR, COLM, CPSI, CPT, CRAY, CTRL, CXP, DCT, DECK, DGI, DLR, DTLK, EA, EEP, EGO, EIX, ELLI, ES, ESS, EVHC, EXPE, FE, FEIC, FEYE, FLR, FLS, FR, FRGI, GB, GMED, HBI, HK, HME, HTCH, IM, IMMR, INT, ISBC, KAMN, KLAC, LEG, LNKD, LRE, LSCC, MOH, MTD, MTSN, MWA, MXWL, NGVC, NR, NSR, OLN, OMCL, OUTR, PCCC, PDFS, PKI, PODD, PTCT, PXLW, QLGC, QTM, RGC, RMD, RNG, ROVI, SAM, SB, SGEN, SKYW, SPF, SPN, SYA, SYNA, SZYM, TCO, TEP, TMST, TNAV, TNDM, TPX, TSYS, TXTR, UHS, VCRA, VVUS, WAGE, WBMD, WU, WWWW, YRCW, ZLTQ
Jul. 29, 2015, 4:33 PM
- Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) and Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) have sold off in AH trading after rival Qorvo (down 15.2%) provided soft FQ2 (calendar Q3) guidance to go with an FQ1 beat.
- Qorvo didn't give an explanation (Apple/Samsung share loss? Soft Chinese demand?) in its earnings release for the outlook. The numbers come 6 days after Skyworks provided above-consensus FQ4 guidance to go with an FQ3 beat. Avago is expected to report in August.
- Update: On its earnings call, Qorvo stated demand from Chinese phone OEMs has softened, and that some are carrying excess inventory. The company also joined other chipmakers in mentioning Chinese 4G base station demand is weak. Skyworks closed down 2.7% AH, and Avago down 3.3%.
Jul. 23, 2015, 1:40 PM
- Micron (MU +3.7%), Skyworks (SWKS +3.2%), Qorvo (QRVO +1.2%), and Avago (AVGO +1.9%) are recovering some of the Wednesday losses seen in response to Apple's FQ3 iPhone sales print and FQ4 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.4%.
- The gains come after Apple-dependent Cirrus Logic (CRUS +19.8%) beat FQ1 estimates and provided strong FQ2 guidance, and beaten-down NAND flash giant SanDisk (SNDK +17.5%) delivered a Q2 beat and offered (better than feared) in-line guidance. Micron received 35% of its May quarter revenue from NAND.
- The numbers are overshadowing Qualcomm's soft FQ4 guidance, blamed to a large extent on iPhone share gains and the lack of a Galaxy S6 app processor design win.
- Stifel's Tore Svanberg has upgraded Cirrus to Buy, while asserting the audio codec developer is "entering a significant product cycle over the next 12-24 months." He's upbeat about the launch of 55nm codecs (expected to provide cost savings), and sees evidence of further traction with top Android OEMs.
- Oppenheimer (Perform rating) estimates Cirrus will (thanks to a smart codec design win) get over $3+ per iPhone 6S unit compared with ~$2.15 per iPhone 6, and notes another smart codec win with a top-tier OEM will ramp over the next 2 quarters. Apple was 62% of FQ1 revenue vs. 65% in FQ4; Samsung (lifted by a Galaxy S6 win) was 18%.
- BofA/Merrill has upgraded SanDisk to Buy. Pac Crest's Monica Garg (Outperform) notes Q2 retail and enterprise sales were both better than expected, as was an ASP decline of 6%. She's also pleased a client SSD delayed by qualification issues will begin shipping in Q4, and asserts SanDisk has both the best planar NAND technology and the industry's first 48-layer 3D NAND chips. Bernstein is also upbeat.
- Skyworks reports after the bell. Various analysts have defended Skyworks, Avago, and Qorvo following Apple's numbers, asserting 4G growth/greater RF complexity remains a tailwind. Oppenheimer estimates Skyworks will see a "15%-20% content boost" with the iPhone 6S, and Avago a more modest gain.
- Prior Cirrus coverage. Prior SanDisk coverage.
Jul. 21, 2015, 5:10 PM
- Apple beat FQ3 estimates, but reported slightly below-consensus iPhone unit sales of 47.5M. In addition, FQ4 revenue guidance of $49B-$51B was below a $51.1B consensus. iPhone revenue was up 59% Y/Y, while iPad revenue fell 23%.
- iPhone/iPad chip suppliers are selling off in response. Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS) -5.6% AH. Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) -6.8%. Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) -6.4%. Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) -3.8%. Broadcom (BRCM - merging with Avago) -1.3%. InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) -4%. NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI) -3.4%.
Jul. 17, 2015, 4:16 PM
- Not content with its recent ~$37B cash/stock deal to merge with Broadcom (BRCM +0.2%), acquisition-hungry Avago (AVGO -0.8%) is looking to bid for Broadcom rival Marvell (MRVL +0.5%), "a reputable source" tells Light Reading.
- Marvell moved slightly higher following the report. With a current $6.7B market cap - a deal could require a price above $8B - Marvell would be a relatively easy fish to swallow. However, its product line overlaps with Broadcom's in the Ethernet transceiver, Ethernet switching chip, and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth combo chip markets (among other areas), and the Ethernet overlap could result in antitrust scrutiny.
- There has been speculation Avago isn't done with its buyout binge. The company snapped up LSI, PLX Technology, and Emulex prior to the Broadcom deal, and has a good track record of reaping major cost synergies from acquisitions.
- Meanwhile, Marvell has been viewed as a potential acquisition target as the chip industry continues consolidating. Shares rose earlier this week on a report of buyout interest from state-owned Chinese firm PDSTI.
Jul. 9, 2015, 1:02 PM
- Avago (AVGO -1.3%) has joined Mellanox and Brocade in selling off in response to a major calendar Q2 warning from Fibre Channel and Ethernet adapter card/controller/switch maker QLogic (down 20.9%).
- QLogic, which also posted a calendar Q1 sales miss and provided light guidance in late April, blames its warning on "lower than expected demand due to general weakness in the Company's traditional enterprise server and storage markets, and a build-up of inventory at certain of its OEM customers due to a slower next-generation server transition in enterprise environments." The latter is an apparent reference to Intel's Grantley Xeon server CPU platform.
- Avago recently acquired QLogic archrival Emulex, and before that bought PCIe switch maker PLX Technology. Merger partner Broadcom also has strong server connectivity exposure, via its Ethernet transceiver and switching chips. Stifel has speculated Avago could work on end-to-end Ethernet solutions combining the company's optical transceivers, Emulex's adapter cards, and Broadcom's switching chips.
Broadcom Ltd. designs, develops and supplier of a broad range of analog and digital semiconductor connectivity solutions. It serves four primary end markets: wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage and industrial & other. The company product's includes data center... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Broad Line
Country: United States
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