Broadcom Limited: Mega Merger Is The Beginning Of A New Era In The Semiconductor Space
SevenSeas Investment Research • 82 Comments
SevenSeas Investment Research • 82 Comments
Will Avago Be A Rock In A Turbulent Semiconductor Sea?
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 10 Comments
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 10 Comments
Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Tue, Jul. 5, 10:18 AM
- Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS) is off 7.4% and Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) down 5.6% as Pacific Crest downgrades both to Sector Weight amid some disappointing iPhone supply chain forecasts.
- Qorvo (QRVO -5.5%) and InvenSense (INVN -5.1%) are down as well.
- Pac Crest has a fair value range of Cirrus Logic of $33-$36 (vs. its previous close of $38.04) and for $60-$67 on Skyworks (vs. previous close of $62.60).
- It also cut price targets on Analog Devices (ADI -1.7%) to $60 from $62 (7.7% upside); Broadcom (AVGO -2.5%) to $180 from $185 (19.7% upside) and Qualcomm (QCOM -1.3%) to $59 from $61 (12.8% upside).
- "Our lowered estimates reflect a much more disappointing second-half 2016 iPhone 7 ramp than what we had previously expected, as feedback from Asia indicates units are expected to be down 15% to 20% as compared to the iPhone 6s, as Apple appears to be taking a much more cautious view of the ramp," the analysts wrote.
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:24 AM
- Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is up 7% premarket after a solid fiscal Q2 beat on profits, followed by price target raises from analysts across the board.
- Some of the highest ground was staked out by SunTrust (Buy), which raised its target to $211 from $189, implying 36% upside.
- Stephen Chin of UBS pointed to wireless sales guidance as well as impressive sales growth in wireline (estimated up 15% sequentially). Supply constraints in wireline may be holding down that segment's guidance, but that's likely due to higher than expected networking demand, he writes. The firm raised its price target to $205 from $190.
- Meanwhile, Cowen says that the earnings call "reinforced and validated our conviction" of Broadcom as its top pick since a recent initiation. The company's firing on all cylinders and being "very strategic" about divestments while paying down debt to prepare for M&A opportunities, Tim Arcuri says; he's bumped the firm's price target to $200 from $190.
- Other target hikes: Goldman Sachs (Buy) raised to $185 from $171; Morgan Stanley (Overweight) raised to $191 from $182; Barclays (Overweight) raised to $185 from $170.
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:16 AM| Fri, Jun. 3, 9:16 AM | 26 Comments
Thu, Jun. 2, 5:35 PM
Thu, Jun. 2, 4:31 PM
- Helping Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) deliver a healthy FQ2 EPS beat in spite of just a slight revenue beat: Non-GAAP gross margin was 60%, down 100 bps Q/Q and Y/Y, but above a guidance midpoint of 59%. FQ3 GM guidance is at 60% (+/- 1%).
- Wired infrastructure products (optical components, networking/telecom chips, set-top and modem chips) were 58% of revenue, wireless communications (RF components and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth combo chips) was 22%, enterprise storage (storage adapter cards and controller chips) was 15%, and industrial/other 5%. Reported Q/Q and Y/Y growth rates are skewed by the Broadcom/Avago merger, which closed at the start of FQ2.
- Non-GAAP operating expenses were $809M (22% of revenue), and (with the help of post-merger cost cuts) are expected to remain at $809M in FQ3. Due to the debt taken on to pay for the merger, Broadcom ended FQ2 with $2B in cash and $15B in debt.
- The company has declared a $0.50/share quarterly dividend. The next dividend is patable on June 30 to shareholders on record as of the June 17 close.
- AVGO +6.5% after hours to $165.01, making new post-merger highs along the way. Pre-earnings expectations were low due to worries about weak iPhone sales.
- Broadcom's results/guidance, earnings release
Thu, Jun. 2, 4:05 PM
Tue, May 24, 3:37 PM
- Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) is up 5.9% this afternoon on heavy volume after a StreetInsider report saying the company has drawn a $15B takeover offer, but from a mystery suitor.
- The company has been considered the only large-cap chipmaker with the attributes of a good target, after Intel's purchase of Altera. Apple suppliers including Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) or Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are the most likely suitors for Xilinx.
- Xilinx used yesterday's analyst day to reiterate guidance for fiscal 2017 (sales growth of 4-8%, opex growth of 7-9%) and prompt strong bullishness from Pacific Crest. Analyst John Vinh sees the firm taking share in field-programmable gate arrays from Intel's Altera, which has faced delays and has "already lost at 20 nm and 14 nm."
- Xilinx is expecting $750M in incremental revenue over the next five years, a modest 6% in compound annual growth. "Of the $750 million, $500 million is expected to be from market expansion, while $250 million should be from PLD share gains. This would imply ~$3.25 in EPS, which at 20x suggests fair value of $65," Vinh writes.
- That $65 value would be 37% upside from today's (higher) price; Vinh has a price target of $55 (16% upside).
- William Blair's Anil Doradla thought the overall tone was good but "lacked conviction" and was light on comment about the company's key wireless/wireline segments. He's maintaining an Outperform rating.
Thu, May 12, 10:53 AM
- A 2.4% decline in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) -- making a fresh 52-week low today -- is being tied to the Nikkei report pointing to a rough year for iPhone suppliers.
- Nikkei's report said that chip shipments from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM -1.2%) -- will be 70-80% of 2015 second-half levels.
- CNBC is saying that Apple's decline today makes Google parent Alphabet the largest U.S. company by market value, at about $498.6B.
- Meanwhile, among Apple's suppliers, steep declines are prevalent today: AVGO -2.2%, SWKS -3.9%, QRVO -2.9%.
- Shares in Apple are down 14.3% YTD, and down 28.4% over the past 12 months.
- Now read Apple: Nikkei Declares iPhone 7 Dead Before Arrival »
Thu, Apr. 28, 11:28 AM
- Along with its Q1 results, Cypress Semi (CY +2.7%) announces it's buying Broadcom/Avago's (AVGO +1.1%) wireless IoT chip unit, which sells, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Zigbee chips, for $550M in cash. Cypress is also acquiring Broadcom's WICED IoT brand and related SDK/developer ecosystem.
- With the Broadcom unit having revenue of $189M during the last 12 months, Cypress is paying 2.9x trailing sales. The deal is expected to close in Q3.
- Cypress: "The acquisition strengthens Cypress's position in key embedded systems markets, such as automotive and industrial, and establishes it as a leader in the high-growth consumer IoT market, a segment that includes wearable electronics and home automation solutions."
- Broadcom notes the deal doesn't cover its wireless connectivity offerings for phones, notebooks, set-tops, and Wi-Fi access points. The company has said it's looking to divest some assets in the wake of the Broadcom/Avago merger, as it tries to streamline its offerings and pay off some of the debt taken on to help finance the merger.
- Separately, Cypress states long-time CEO T.J. Rodgers will step down this week. While the board searches for Rodgers' successor, daily operations will be handled by an Office of the CEO featuring several senior execs.
- Rodgers: "This March, Valeta and I celebrated my 68th birthday in Mexico. Upon reflection, while I am still passionately interested in Element 14, silicon, I have always planned not to be spending most of my time in the last decade of my career immersed in the details of the operations ... And, to be completely candid, the board and even the executive staff have urged me to bring new blood into operations." He'll continue to work on some projects for Cypress.
- Cypress is guiding for Q2 revenue of $440M-$470M and EPS of $0.10-$0.14, in-line with a consensus of $454.8M and $0.11. Both Cypress and Broadcom are higher.
Tue, Apr. 26, 5:19 PM
- Apple (down 7.8% after hours) missed FQ2 estimates and guided for FQ3 revenue of $41B-$43B, below a $47.32B consensus. iPhone unit shipments fell 16% Y/Y to 51.2M, and iPad shipments 19% to 10.3M. Both figures were a little better than expectations. However, guidance points to another large Y/Y iPhone decline in FQ3.
- Cirrus Logic (down 4.2%) beat FQ4 estimates, but guided for FQ1 revenue of $220M-$250M, below a $257.5M consensus. Apple accounted for 62% of FQ4 revenue, and another customer (believed to be Samsung) 17%.
- Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) is down 5.2% after hours. Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) is down 5%. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is down 3.8%. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is down 2.4%. NXP (NASDAQ:NXPI), which rallied earlier today thanks to a Q1 beat and solid Q2 guidance is down 2.5%. Nasdaq futures are down 0.9%.
Fri, Mar. 4, 12:21 PM
- Skyworks (SWKS +6.3%) and Qorvo (QRVO +3.2%) are rallying after Broadcom (AVGO +6.9%) - known as Avago before closing its merger with Broadcom last month - beat FQ1 estimates and issued solid FQ2 guidance in spite of ongoing worries about weak iPhone sales in particular, and soft high-end smartphone demand in general. The guidance excludes businesses from classic Broadcom that the new Broadcom plans to sell, and which produced an estimated $295M in FY15 revenue.
- Possibly helping: Broadcom stated on the earnings call (transcript) it expects FQ2 to be "the trough for our wireless businesses for the rest of the fiscal year," and says it has already begun "pre-building in significant quantities" FBAR filters to support a 2H16 product cycle ramp with its North American customers (i.e. the iPhone 7).
- Broadcom added it expects "a substantial increase in our content" with the iPhone 7, and that also increased RF content with new flagship phones launched by its top Korean client (i.e. the Galaxy S7/S7 Edge). Wireless sales are expected to make up 23% of FQ2 revenue.
- The company also offered an upbeat outlook for its wired infrastructure ops, which (thanks to the addition of the old Broadcom) are expected to account for 55% of FQ2 sales. Growing ASIC sales for base stations and data center switches, higher ASSP sales for enterprise networking applications, last-mile fiber and DSL deployments, and a seasonal set-top refresh are expected to provide a lift.
- Enterprise storage, by contrast, is expected to be hurt by "seasonal declines" in hard drive and storage demand. Industrial chip sales are expected to rise slightly following an FQ1 shipment drop blamed on "lingering uncertainty in industrial end-markets." Storage and industrial are respectively expected to make up 17% and 5% of FQ2 sales.
- Canaccord's Mike Walkley (Buy, target hiked by $10 to $185) is pleased with Avago's implied earnings guidance, which benefits from M&A synergies and the planned asset sales. "We believe management will continue to execute on the recently closed Broadcom acquisition and achieve synergy targets given management’s strong track record in integrating acquisitions."
- Update: Along with its earnings/guidance, Broadcom has disclosed (through an 8-K filing) it plans to cut 1,900 jobs, and record $650M in related charges through FY18. Major post-merger job cuts were generally expected.
Thu, Mar. 3, 5:39 PM
Thu, Mar. 3, 4:57 PM
- Broadcom's (NASDAQ:AVGO) FQ1 beat is accompanied by guidance for FQ2 revenue of $3.55B (+/- $75M), nearly matching a $3.57B consensus and well-received given the outlooks provided by other firms with strong iPhone exposure.
- Top-line performance: FQ1 results don't account for the Broadcom merger, which closed at the start of FQ2. Wireless communications revenue (32% of total revenue, hurt by iPhone weakness) fell 15% Q/Q and 13% Y/Y. Enterprise storage (38% of total, boosted by the Emulex acquisition) rose 6% Q/Q and 40% Y/Y. Wired infrastructure (22% of total) rose 2% Q/Q and 11% of Y/Y. Industrial/other revenue (8% of total, hurt by semi inventory correction) fell 10% Q/Q and 13% Y/Y.
- Financials: Non-GAAP gross margin was 61% vs. 52% in FQ4 and 59% a year ago, and in-line with guidance. FQ2 GM guidance is at 59% (+/- 1%). Boosting EPS: Operating expenses totaled $306M, down $32M Q/Q (M&A synergies) and up $13M Y/Y. Avago ended FQ1 with $2.2B in cash and $3.9B in debt.
- The chipmaker formerly known as Avago is up 7.6% after hours to $147.80.
- Broadcom's FQ1 results, earnings release
- Update: SA commenter Philip Marlowe states Broadcom's guidance is above consensus after factoring the impact of assets from the old Broadcom that are now recognized as held for sale. "During the call the CFO suggested that the quarterly run rate on those "held for sale" assets is about 80 mln. Therefore, on a comparable basis the forward guidance looks like a solid beat."
Thu, Mar. 3, 4:06 PM
Fri, Jan. 29, 3:27 PM
- Several Apple suppliers are seeing major gains after iPhone power amplifier supplier Skyworks (SWKS +5.5%) and iPhone LCD driver IC supplier Synaptics (SYNA +10.6%) delivered their calendar Q4 reports yesterday afternoon - Skyworks beat estimates, while Synaptics (initially lower) missed on sales and beat on EPS.
- Both companies provided soft Q1 guidance (I, II) - Synaptics also suggested it's seeing weakness at multiple top smartphone OEMs . But with nearly every other iPhone supplier to have reported (not to mention Apple itself) having also guided light, shares are rallying nonetheless.
- Big gainers include mobile DRAM supplier Micron (MU +11.1%), microphone supplier Knowles (KN +11.2%), motion sensor supplier InvenSense (INVN +7.5%), audio codec chip supplier Cirrus Logic (CRUS +6.6%), NFC chip/motion co-processor supplier NXP (NXPI +5.9%), and RF chip suppliers/Skyworks rivals Qorvo (QRVO +6.8%) and Avago (AVGO +5.6%). The Nasdaq is up 1.8%.
- Micron could also be getting a lift from the market-pleasing reports delivered by hard drive giants Seagate and Western Digital, given Micron is exposed to many of the same end-markets as Seagate/Western.
Cirrus Logic is adding to the big Thursday gains seen after the company provided encouraging FY17 comments in its FQ3 earnings call. InvenSense has more than recovered the Thursday losses seen after the company provided soft FQ4 guidance and suggested it had lost share at Samsung.
- Possibly helping Synaptics out: When asked about M&A reports on the earnings call, CEO Rick Bergman didn't quite shoot them down. "[W]e're not going to comment on rumors or market speculation ... at the end of the day it is our job to maximize shareholder value so we'll listen to any great ideas that can do that and evaluate them appropriately."
Meanwhile, Bergman asserted Synaptics' TDDI (integrated touch controller/display driver) sales are due to ramp strongly thanks to numerous design wins at top LCD panel makers, and that its ClearForce pressure-response tech will be "a significant differentiator" for Synaptics' TDDI offerings.
Thu, Jan. 28, 5:21 PM
- Skyworks (NASDAQ:SWKS) FQ1 beat is accompanied by guidance for FQ2 revenue of $775M and EPS of $1.24, below a consensus of $817.8M and $1.33. However, with Apple having issued light calendar Q1 guidance and many fellow iPhone suppliers (including rival Qorvo) having warned and/or issued soft guidance, the outlook is being taken in stride.
FQ1 details: Margin gains continue boosting EPS: Non-GAAP gross margin rose 470 bps Y/Y to 51.4%. FQ2 GM guidance is at 50.5%-51%. GAAP operating expenses rose 12% Y/Y to $141.6M. Skyworks ended FQ1 with over $1.2B in cash and no debt.
New non-mobile design wins included Volkswagen telematics systems, GM vehicle-to-vehicle communications sockets, Google's Chromecast HDMI stick and Nest security cameras, and Roku set-tops.
- Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) is up 2.3% after hours. Avago (NASDAQ:AVGO) is up 1.3%.
- Skyworks' FQ1 results, earnings release
Broadcom Ltd. designs, develops and supplier of a broad range of analog and digital semiconductor connectivity solutions. It serves four primary end markets: wired infrastructure, wireless communications, enterprise storage and industrial & other. The company product's includes data center... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Broad Line
Country: United States
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