Buy Avianca: 70% Near-Term Upside
Ian Bezek • 46 Comments
Ian Bezek • 46 Comments
Buy Avianca Holdings: Loyalty Program + Cargo Business + Passenger Airline = Significant Upside
Mallku Capital Management LLC • 15 Comments
Mallku Capital Management LLC • 15 Comments
Mon, Aug. 22, 8:11 AM
Sat, Aug. 20, 7:25 PM
Sat, Jul. 23, 8:25 AM
- General Electric (NYSE:GE) was yesterday's biggest laggard among Dow stocks, sinking 1.6% after reporting a 2% drop in orders for Q2, with industrial orders - GE’s jet engines, power turbines, oil production equipment, et. al. - plunging 16% amid weakness in oil and gas prices that hurt demand.
- "The texture of this quarter is very similar to the two most recent quarters, with exceptionally weak orders,” says Morgan Stanley's Nigel Coe, who rates GE at Equal Weight with a $32 price target.
- GE's total Q2 revenues rose 15% Y/Y to $33.5B, but organic industrial sales excluding the Alstom acquisition fell 1%; GE needs to meet its own expectations for a substantial upturn in organic trends in H2 in an "extremely challenging" environment, Coe says.
- "Those are capital intensive purchases and if those get pushed out even just a little bit" it could weaken GE's performance, says Edward Jones analyst Jeff Windau.
- Andrew Elofson at Davidson Investment Advisors takes the long view, seeing Q2 as "a speed bump on the path to their transformation” and not really looking at whether GE can hit its 5% organic sales growth target for H2.
- But Standpoint Research’s Ronnie Moas responded to the Q2 results by slapping a Sell rating on GE with a $26 price target, seeing no reason to own the shares that trade at more than 20x 2016 EPS estimates while "dozens" of mid-cap names with room to grow trade at or below 10x earnings - such as YRCW, TGI, AVH, GBX, ARII, CBI, UAL, SPR and ACM.
Thu, Jul. 21, 1:35 PM| Thu, Jul. 21, 1:35 PM
Tue, Jul. 12, 9:58 AM
- Airline stocks are making strong gains on a flurry of positive news.
- The investment in LATAM Airlines (LFL +23.9%) by Qatar Airways is having a ripple effect across other global carriers. Copa Holdings (CPA +7.9%), Avianca Holdings (AVH +8.1%), and Go Linhas (GOL +7.8%) are all solidly higher.
- In the U.S., a stronger-than-anticipated report from United Continental (UAL +7.7%) on its key Q2 revenue metric is the highlight along with a sweeping upgrade from Deutsche Bank.
- The investment firm raises United, American Airlines Group (AAL +8.6%), and Delta Air Lines (DAL +4.7%) to Buy from Hold.
- "We are of the view that all known negatives (Brexit, tepid global economic growth, over-supplied markets, etc.) are more than fully discounted in the share prices which are, on average, trading at 6.4x our 2016 EPS estimates and 6.8x our 2017 EPS estimates," reads the note from DB.
- Alaska Air Group (ALK +4.3%), JetBlue Airways (JBLU +4%), Southwest Airlines (LUV +3.4%), and Spirit Airlines (SAVE +3.3%) are all higher as well.
- The U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSEARCA:JETS) is up 3.86% on the day.
Sun, Jun. 5, 8:48 AM
- The chairman of the controlling shareholder of Avianca Holdings (NYSE:AVH) has confirmed he is open to a strategic partnership that would infuse the Latin American carrier with new cash.
- "Why not if it makes sense," Jose Efromovich declared in Switzerland. "This is a very capital-intensive business. We are going to be open for opportunities."
- Last week, United Continental and Delta Air Lines were named as possible suitors for the company.
Fri, Jun. 3, 12:47 PM
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:16 AM| Fri, Jun. 3, 9:16 AM | 26 Comments
Thu, Jun. 2, 7:21 PM
- Panama-based air carrier Avianca (NYSE:AVH) is up 4.1% after hours on news that all or part of the airline will be sold, with interest from the big U.S. carriers, The Wall Street Journal reports.
- United Continental (NYSE:UAL) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) are named as possible suitors for the carrier.
- Avianca is one of the continent's biggest carriers, and was established as a strategic alliance between Aerovias del Continente Americano and Grupo TACA Holdings Limited.
- Updated: Avianca Holdings ended after-hours trading at 8 p.m. up 33%.
Tue, May 31, 2:24 AM
- Global demand for air travel may be "shifting down a gear," according to global aviation group IATA, which signaled a cautious outlook for passenger traffic after growth in April rose just 4.6% on year - the lowest pace since January 2015.
- While some of the slowdown could be attributed to the Brussels terror attacks, there are still signs that underlying traffic growth could be decelerating, Director General Tony Tyler said. "The stimulus from lower oil prices appears to be tapering off. And the global economic situation is subdued."
- Airline stocks: AAL, UAL, DAL, RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCPK:QUBSF, ALK, HA, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCPK:AFLYY, VLRS, LUV, OTC:RYAOF, VA, LFL, SAVE, ALGT, CEA, OTC:EJTTF, OTCQX:ESYJY, AVH, OTC:AFRAF, OTCPK:ICAGY.
Tue, May 17, 2:43 AM
Wed, May 11, 2:12 PM
- The airline industry is focused on Phoenix today where the Phoenix Sky Harbor International Aviation Symposium is underway with an all-star roster of executives speaking.
- Aer Lingus (OTC:AIRXY) said it's using Dublin as a gateway to connect the U.S. and Europe.
- Ryanair's (NASDAQ:RYAAY) aggressive pricing is identified as a major factor in Europe that's unlikely to reverse anytime soon.
- A major theme has been industry consolidation with several execs pointing to more M&A opportunities in Europe and Asia. Foreign ownership of U.S. airlines is seen as opening up in the future, with today's joint ventures called a "precursor" to that evolution.
- Airline buzz H/T The Cranky Flier and the Associated Press.
- Related tickers: RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCPK:QUBSF, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCPK:AFLYY, VLRS, AVH, OTCPK:JAPSY, OTC:AFRAF, OTC:EJTTF, OTC:WJAFF, OTC:WJAVF, OTCQX:ESYJY, OTCPK:ICAGY, VLRS, OTCPK:GRPAF, DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, ALK.
Wed, Mar. 2, 2:45 PM
- Avianca (NYSE:AVH): Q4 Adj. Net income of $43M
- Revenue of $1.07B (-13.7% Y/Y) misses by $30M.
- Shares +6%
Fri, Jan. 29, 7:31 AM
- IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce expects the global airline industry to see the benefit of low oil prices this year and next.
- In another positive signal, Pearce noted that the economic turmoil in China hasn't crimped demand for flights in the region.
- The current forecast from IATA is for $36.3B industry profit in 2016 and a 8.6% return on capital.
- Related tickers: RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCPK:QUBSF, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCPK:AFLYY, VLRS, AVH, OTCPK:JAPSY, OTC:AFRAF, OTC:EJTTF, OTC:WJAFF, OTC:WJAVF, OTCQX:ESYJY, OTCPK:ICAGY, VLRS, OTCPK:GRPAF
Dec. 16, 2015, 8:27 AM
- The European Union has adopted new rules to make it easier to track jetliners, stepping up international efforts to prevent a repeat of several jetliner disappearances.
- Under the new regulations, airlines will be given three years to install a means of tracking aircraft when flying in normal conditions outside radar coverage, over oceans or remote land.
- They must also have a system for more frequent updates in the event of an emergency.
- Related tickers: AAL, UAL, DAL, RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCQX:QUBSF, ALK, HA, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCPK:AFLYY, VLRS, LUV, AVH, OTCPK:JAPSY, OTC:AFRAF, OTC:EJTTF, OTC:WJAFF, OTC:WJAVF, OTCQX:ESYJY, OTCPK:ICAGY, VLRS, OTCPK:GRPAF
Dec. 10, 2015, 8:09 AM
- IATA issues a strong outlook for airline sector profits.
- The net profit forecast for 2015 is revised upward to $33B from $29.3B. A net profit margin of 4.6% is expected.
- The outlook for 2016 from IATA is for total profits of $36.3B and a net profit margin of 5.1%.
- 2016 profit forecast by region: North America $19.2B, Europe $8.5B, Asia-Pacific $6.6B, Middle East $1.4B, Latin America $400M, Africa -$100M.
- Strong passenger demand and lower oil prices are two drivers of the profit growth, although profit is impacted significantly in many markets due to the high level of the U.S. dollar, notes the industry-watching group.
- Global airline stocks: AAL, UAL, DAL, RYAAY, OTCPK:CPCAY, OTCPK:SINGY, CEA, ZNH, CPA, GOL, LFL, OTCQX:DLAKF, OTCQX:QUBSF, ALK, HA, OTCPK:AIRYY, OTCPK:MLYAF, OTCPK:AFLYY, VLRS, LUV, AVH, OTCPK:JAPSY, OTC:AFRAF, OTC:EJTTF, OTC:WJAFF, OTC:WJAVF, OTCQX:ESYJY, OTCPK:ICAGY, VLRS, OTCPK:GRPAF.
- Related ETFs: JETS