Nov. 9, 2015, 2:12 PM
- Down on Friday in response to TripAdvisor's Q3 miss and full-year guidance cut, Expedia (EXPE -2.5%) is underperforming today after archrival Priceline (PCLN -9.5%) provided below-consensus Q4 EPS guidance to go with a Q3 beat.
- Priceline's gross bookings rose 7% Y/Y in Q3 (22% exc. forex) to $14.8B, and are expected to rise 1%-8% in Q4 (13%-20% exc. forex). Expedia, which is less dependent on international sales (and thus hurt less by a strong dollar) than Priceline, saw bookings (exc. eLong) rise 21% Y/Y in Q3 to $15.4B. Excluding forex, growth was 26%.
- Separately, Piper's Mike Olson (Neutral rating, $130 target) thinks Expedia's forecast for the HomeAway (AWAY -1.7%) deal to boost EBITDA by $350M in 2018 is conservative, given HomeAway's recent introduction of a 6% traveler booking fee. He thinks the booking fee could add over $1B/year in revenue by 2018, and expects synergies between HomeAway and Expedia's platforms to significantly boost booking volume for vacation property owners.
Nov. 6, 2015, 1:32 PM
- Priceline (PCLN -1.6%) and Expedia (EXPE -2.9%) have sold off after TripAdvisor (TRIP -6.8%) posted a Q3 miss and cut its full-year revenue growth forecast. On its earnings call (transcript), TripAdvisor stated the rollout of Instant Booking (allows bookings to be made on TripAdvisor's site/apps, Priceline recently signed up) is affecting near-term revenue by pushing out revenue recognition relative to referral (click-based) payments.
- Also: Priceline says it's uninterested in making a rival bid for top vacation rental marketplace HomeAway (AWAY -6.2%), which recently agreed to a $3.9B sale to Expedia. HomeAway has fallen to $37.73, a price close to what Expedia's cash/stock offer is currently worth.
- TripAdvisor's management faced earnings call questions about the impact of Instant Booking on monetization and conversion rates. It insisted IB, and the the Priceline deal in particular, will be a major positive. "The reason Priceline enables us to accelerate our [Instant Booking] rollout globally is because of the rich content that they have on 400,000 plus properties all around the globe, and by that I mean they are able to successfully take bookings on 400,000 plus properties in multiple, multiple, different language, processing payments for multiple different credit card by multiple different banks."
- At the same time, management is taking a cautious approach to modeling international IB sales. "[W]hile we have the decent amount of experience now in U.S. and U.K., we don't quite know how [Instant Booking] is going to flowing in, in France, in Japan, all throughout age, all throughout all the other markets that we look to roll it out in."
- Oppenheimer's Jed Kelly has downgraded TripAdvisor to Perform, citing slightly weaker hotel trends and the "monetization drag" Instant Booking could have in the near-term. Nonetheless, he thinks the Priceline deal "should eventually enhance earnings long term, especially as revenue leakage and improving mobile monetization eventually equates to higher revenue per hotel shopper."
- Priceline and TripAdvisor rallied last week in response to Expedia's Q3 results and full-year guidance hike. Priceline reports on Monday morning.
Nov. 5, 2015, 12:43 PM
Nov. 5, 2015, 9:10 AM| Nov. 5, 2015, 9:10 AM | 32 Comments
Nov. 4, 2015, 5:39 PM
Nov. 4, 2015, 5:33 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) is now up strongly after hours in response to news it's buying HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY) for $3.9B. HomeAway has risen to $39.26 - at Expedia's current trading levels, the company's cash/stock payout for HomeAway is worth $39.06/share. (PR)
- Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi: "We have long had our eyes on the fast growing ~$100 billion alternative accommodations space and have been building on our partnership with HomeAway, a global leader in vacation rentals, for two years ... we look forward to partnering with them to accelerate their shift from a classified marketplace to an online, transactional model to create even better experiences for HomeAway's global traveler audience and the owners and managers of its 1.2 million properties around the world."
- The deal is partly seen as an attempt to counter the rise of home/apartment rental marketplace Airbnb (Pending:AIRB), which was reportedly valued at an eye-popping $25.5B in a June round. Airbnb has long been seen a threat to HomeAway (though HomeAway has insisted it differs from Airbnb due to its focus on secondary home rentals), and Expedia admitted on its Q3 earnings call Airbnb could exert price pressure in some hotel markets by increasing available room inventory.
- Earlier: Expedia buying HomeAway for $3.9B
Nov. 4, 2015, 4:21 PM
- Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) is buying leading vacation rental marketplace HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY) for $3.9B in cash and stock, or $38.31/share based on Expedia's Tuesday close.
- Expedia will pay $10.15/share in cash and issue 0.2065 shares for each HomeAway share. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2016.
- AWAY is halted. EXPE is up fractionally after hours.
Nov. 4, 2015, 4:05 PM
- HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY): Q3 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.03.
- Revenue of $130.68M (+11.6% Y/Y) beats by $0.39M.
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 26, 2015, 9:32 AM
- Believing online bookings act as "a game-changer" for its vacation rental marketplace, Cowen's Kevin Kopelman has upgraded HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY) to Outperform ahead of its Nov. 4 Q3 report, and hiked his target by $6 to $40.
- Kopelman also expects a traveler fee to arrive by 2017 that could double monetization, and states checks indicate HomeAway remains strong in its core beach/ski rental markets in spite of Airbnb's growth. He forecasts 2018 EPS of $2.00; the 2016 consensus is $0.78.
Aug. 24, 2015, 4:29 PM
- The Nasdaq opened down 7.5%, furiously rallied almost to breakeven, and then sold off again in the afternoon to close down 3.8%. Some tech stocks managed to rise nonetheless, while many others posted 5%+ declines.
- Major decliners included Citrix (CTXS -9.3%), Solera (SLH -8.9%), NCR (NCR -7.8%), Nuance (NUAN -6.9%), Infinera (INFN -6.4%), HomeAway (AWAY -6.6%), MagnaChip (MX -6.4%), Yandex (YNDX -7.5%), Neustar (NSR -6%), Ebix (EBIX -7.3%), SGI (SGI -8%), Monster (MWW -7.5%), Silver Spring (SSNI -6.6%), Perion (PERI -11%), and Synchronoss (SNCR -7.5%).
- Solera's decline comes 4 days after the company confirmed it's exploring strategic alternatives, and 5 days after Bloomberg reported a sale is being explored. Yandex has been hit hard in recent weeks by the ruble and crude oil's decline. Infinera is down 20% over the last 3 trading days, albeit still up 34% YTD.
- See also: Morning decliners, Chinese tech stocks, large-cap decliners
Aug. 4, 2015, 5:38 PM
Aug. 4, 2015, 4:11 PM
- HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY) has risen to $30.01 AH after beating Q2 revenue estimates and posting in-line EPS. Q3 revenue guidance is at $128M-$131M (+9%-12% Y/Y, in-line with a $130.2M consensus), and full-year guidance at $496M-$503M (+11%-12.5%, in-line with a $497.6M consensus), Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been upped by $0.5M to $119.5M-$123.5M.
- A strong dollar is expected to have a $37M 2015 revenue impact. Q2 revenue growth was 10.1% in dollars, and 19.2% in constant currency.
- Q2 listing revenue +5.6% Y/Y to $99.8M. Other revenue +31.9% to $26M. Paid listings +13.9% to 1.185M; average revenue per subscription listing was $496. Visits +19.6% to 274.4M.
- Expectations were relatively low given a Q1 miss and ongoing concerns about competition from Airbnb.
- Q2 results, PR
Aug. 4, 2015, 4:01 PM
- HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY): Q2 EPS of $0.12 in-line.
- Revenue of $125.84M (+10.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.98M.
Aug. 3, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Jun. 30, 2015, 11:47 AM
- Piper's Michael Olson reports checks for online travel trends through May point to a strong Q2 for the industry.
- Priceline (PCLN +2.8%), Expedia (EXPE +2%), Travelzoo (TZOO +3%), HomeAway (AWAY +1.6%), and TripAdvisor (TRIP +0.9%) are outperforming to varying degrees amid a 0.5% gain for the Nasdaq. Aside from Expedia, the group has been pressured by a mixture of forex and company-specific concerns. Piper has a neutral rating on Expedia due to valuation concerns, and Overweight ratings on Priceline, TripAdvisor, and HomeAway.
- Separately, Expedia has named worldwide engineering SVP Aman Bhutani the president of the Brand Expedia Group, which covers Expedia.com, Travelocity, Wotif, and Expedia's JV with AirAsia - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has been handling the job for over 3 years. GeekWire notes Bhutani has a strong reputation within the company for making data-driven tech decisions and experimenting with product changes.
- Previously: Deutsche downgrades Priceline, cites Airbnb
- Previously: Macquarie: HomeAway is cheap if Airbnb is worth $24B