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Bank Of America - Oil Contagion Fear Opening Opportunity
- A new factor, the risk of oil contagion, is driving fear across the financial sector and opening opportunity in some stocks.
- The banking sector is usually affected by crisis due to lending throughout the economy, but today's banking sector is better prepared for crisis than ever before thanks to the Fed.
- Bank of America still bears fresh scars from the last financial crisis and has not been taking excessive risks while still under the watchful eye of regulators.
- I expect value to be created for new stakes to be taken in Bank of America before long, but I would wait until after the holidays to take long-term stakes.
- Current long-term holders may want to hedge short-term risk using options or short positions on the XLF security.
3 Reasons Why Bank Of America Is One Of My Top Picks For 2015
- Company fundamentals, a growing jobs market, and the sunsetting of legal issues all could propel Bank of America to meaningful gains in 2015.
- Bank of America currently trades at a 19% discount to its book value whereas competitors like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo trade at above book value.
- The company currently meets Fed capital adequacy requirements including the proposed capital surcharge rules.
- A good year for Bank of America has the potential to lead to further stock buybacks and dividend increases.
- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns 700M equity warrants of Bank of America, which if converted represents 6.6% of Bank of America's outstanding shares.
- Bank of America's share price is still trading at a 17% discount to its book value.
- Bank of America's Projected FY2015 EPS of $1.49 exceeds its combined EPS from 2011 to 2014.
- Bank of America is putting its litigation woes behind it through its numerous charges for litigation.
Bank Of America: Intrinsic Value Approaching $27 Per Share, 50%+ Upside Potential In 2015
- The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with strong job creation data and low unemployment rates.
- Economic tailwinds and a serious undervaluation make Bank of America my favorite bank investment in 2015.
- I estimate Bank of America's intrinsic value to be in the mid $20s, giving shares more than 50% upside potential.
Bank Of America: A Perfect Storm Of Profits Lies Ahead
- The entire banking sector rose after a strong jobs number was reported Friday morning. Bank of America’s stock was up nearly 3% on the day.
- The strong jobs growth coupled with several other positive catalysts on the horizon could make 2015 a very exciting year for the bank.
- Nevertheless, there are always risks to any investment thesis. In the following article we will separate the wheat from the chaff and make a determination.
Bank Of America: Are You Ready For The Next Move To The Upside?
- While business headwinds and risks will always be with us, the most controversial issues have been put to bed.
- The stock has been meandering for several months now.
- The next earnings report is not far off.
- Bank of America is well positioned to for considerable upside in 2015.
- The bank seems to have finally put its litigation risk behind it. This has been well documented over the past month.
- Even so, I believe Bank of America has another major catalyst on the horizon I haven’t seen covered in recent articles.
- This “ace up its sleeve”, so to speak, could mean billions to the bottom line next year for Bank of America. The great news is the ace must be played.
Update: After Moynihan's Commentary, We Still Like Bank Of America
- Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has done a great job.
- He recently made statements noting that he would not go down the same path the bank followed in 2008. A bit obvious, but we like it nonetheless.
- We like Bank of America as an investment here.
Bank Of America: Is A Return To Glory In 2015 In The Cards?
- Bank of America has been clawing its way back from the brink since the 2008 crash.
- The company cut the dividend drastically down from $0.64 in the 3rd quarter of 2008 to $0.01 by the 1st quarter of 2009.
- With the bank apparently putting its legacy mortgage woes behind it and EPS expected to rise substantially in 2015, could Bank of America return to glory in 2015?
- Bank of America still trades at a significant discount on a historical and comparative basis.
- A more favorable cost structure coupled with increasing interest rates will generate tremendous income.
- BAC is in the 9th inning of getting out of the mess that was the financial crisis and is poised for success.
Bank Of America: Fasten Your Seat Belt And Prepare For Takeoff
- Bank Of America has panoply of positive catalysts on the horizon.
- These catalysts combined with the bank putting its mortgage litigation woes behind it should spur the stock higher.
- Even so, headwinds remain. Nevertheless, with the Republicans taking control of the Senate, is the worm finally about to turn?
- A review of critical investment points which demonstrate why Bank of America is not ideal for income investors.
- Capital could be best deployed in other higher dividend yielding North American banks.
- Review of JP Morgan Chase and Toronto Dominion Bank of Canada.
Bank Of America: An Investment That Cannot Lose, Maybe
- The trials and tribulations of BAC are well documented and fading into the past.
- If Bank of America simply plays by the rules and works like a bank should, I cannot see how investors can lose. Of course, that is a big "if".
- The business of money is like any other business, only better.
Bank Of America: That Which Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Stronger
- Bank of America was nearly driven into bankruptcy by litigation expenses due to the 2008 housing debacle.
- Nonetheless, the bank managed to survive and litigation risk is now clearly in the rear view mirror.
- Ironically, an uptick in recent mortgage activity may be just the thing to propel Bank of America shares higher.
- Bank of America’s performance for the quarter was overshadowed by their $16.7 billion settlement with the Justice Department.
- Revenues for the quarter amounted to $21.2 billion, which was a 5.8% increase over the previous year.
- The bank was able to achieve broad based growth in profitability over the quarter.
- Dividends grew over the previous quarter and year, highlighting the bank’s desire to reward its investors.
- Bank of America has established its prowess this quarter as a competitor in the banking industry.
- Bank of America’s stock has been deluged by a significant number of headwinds over the past few months.
- The major issue at hand was the overhang of litigation risk.
- With litigation risk seemingly in the rear view mirror and a potential catalyst on the horizon, is it time to start a position?
BAC: Best Practice Model Validation For Fed Stress-Testing, Value At Risk And Credit VAR
- Last Friday the Fed decried banks' reliance on poor risk models in announcing the rules for the imminent stress testing exercise with results due in January.
- These stress tests have important implications for BAC, C, JPM and WFC and the banks regulated by the European Central Bank and UK authorities.
- This note, which is designed for serious nerds, focuses on best practice model validation for stress testing, value at risk, and credit-adjusted value at risk.
Bank Of America: Selling Into Market Weakness Is Never A Good Idea
- Bank of America just released third quarter earnings, which were solid (with the exception of CRES).
- Investors sold off Bank of America in light of a weaker stock market, not because results were bad.
- Bank of America is oversold at the moment and the 4.6% decline yesterday makes no sense at all.
- With settlements in the rearview mirror, Bank of America is an interesting Buy at a 25% discount to book value.
Bank Of America - No Surprises, Operational Improvements And Multi-Billion Legal Fees
- Bank of America posts relatively solid third quarter results adjusted for one-time items.
- Following multi-billion legal charges the company is essentially breaking even.
- I remain very cautious given the troubled past and continued legal expenses, while operational achievements are really visible.
Wed, Oct. 15, 9:29 AM
- We listen to what the market is telling us, says Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) management on the earnings call, responding to a question from Mike Mayo about whether the bank is changing its interest rate assumptions given the sharp drop in yields of late (the 10-year Treasury yield is now down a whopping 17 bps today to 2.03%).
- Webcast live and recorded (later) in available on Seeking Alpha.
- Presentation slides
- Getting into more detail, Mayo asks what would happen to the bank's earnings and ROE targets in 2015 if, in fact, rates do not go higher. CEO Moynihan: We'll do what we're doing now - that is trying to grow the business where it can. He notes core earnings in Consumer & Business Banking rose 15% from a year ago, Wealth Management up 3%, Global Banking up 8%, and Global Markets up 10%.
- Previously: Bank of America +1.2% after earnings beat
- Previously: Treasury yields tumble after weak data; S&P futures down 1%
- Shares now lower by 1.8% as the broader markets tumble again.
Wed, Oct. 15, 7:22 AM
- Net income of $168M includes a $5.3B or $0.43 per share pre-tax legal charge for global mortgage settlement. Earnings one year ago were $2.5B, or $0.20 per share.
- Net interest income of $10.4B flat from a year ago.
- Noninterest income gained 2% Y/Y, when excluding DVA adjustments. Net charge-offs of $1B fell 38%. Net charge-off ratio of 0.46 compares to 0.73 one year ago.
- Noninterest expense of $19.7B vs. $16.4B a year ago. Excluding litigation expense, noninterest expense of $14.2B fell 7% Y/Y, thanks to sizable personnel cutbacks (mostly in legacy mortgage).
- Consumer and Business Banking net income of $1.856B vs. $1.787B a year ago. Average deposit balances up 4%. Mobile banking customers up 15% to 16.1M - 11% of deposits were made via mobile vs. 8% a year ago.
- Consumer Real Estate Services net loss of $5.184B vs. loss of $990M a year ago, thanks to the mortgage settlement. $11.7B of mortgages originated and $3.2B of home-equity loans vs. $22.6B and $1.8B a year ago.
- Global Wealth and Investment Management net income of $813M vs. $720M a year ago.
- Global Banking net income of $1.414B vs. $1.137B a year ago.
- Global Markets net income of $769M vs. a loss of $875M a year ago. FICC revenue of $2.2B gains 11% Y/Y, driven by currencies as volatility returned late in the quarter.
- Tangible book value per share of $14.13 vs. $13.62 one year ago.
- Conference call at 8:30 ET
- Previously: Bank of America beats by $0.08, beats on revenue
- BAC +1.2% premarket
Wed, Oct. 15, 7:08 AM
Tue, Oct. 14, 5:30 PM
Wed, Jul. 16, 9:14 AM
- New BAC cost savings at a $2B annual run rate are now expected to be achieved by Q4 of this year vs. the previous goal of 2015. LAS expense excluding litigation, however, isn't falling as fast as hoped and should decline to $1.1B by Q1 2015. Full-time equivalent employees of 233.2K slips from 238.6K at the end of Q1 and 257.2K one year ago.
- Mobile banking customers grew to 15.5M and 10% of deposit transactions are now done through mobile deposits. Banking centers of 5,023 are down 72 from Q1.
- Earnings call presentation slides
- Tangible book value per share of $14.24 rises from $13.81 at the end of Q1, and $13.32 one year ago. Common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 12% rises from 11.8% at the end of Q1.
- The settlement with AIG doesn't mean the end of the Article 77 hearing, but that company was the largest holder and strongest objector to the $8.5B settlement
- Previously: Another big bank beats; this time BofA
- Priced in? Up more than 3% in the past three sessions on strong earnings from Wells Fargo, Citi, JPMorgan, and Goldman, BAC is lower by 0.5% premarket.
Wed, Jul. 16, 7:25 AM
- Net income of $2.3B or $0.19 per share includes pretax litigation expense of $4B, or $0.22 per share after tax.
- Net interest income of $10.226B falls 5% Y/Y, with NIM off 2 basis points to 2.26%.
- Noninterest income of $11.734B falls 4%. Consumer and Business banking net income of $1.788B rises 29% from a year ago, with mobile banking customers of 15.5M up 17%. Consumer Real Estate Services net loss of $2.8B compares to net loss of $930M a year ago, with 1st-mortgage originations off 59%. Global Wealth and Investment Management net income of $724M falls from $759M. Global Banking net income of $1.353B vs. $1.3B a year ago. Global Markets net income of $1.1B gains 14%, with FICC revenue of $2.4B up 5% Y/Y.
- Noninterest expense of $18.5B rises from $16B thanks to litigation expenses. Excluding that, noninterest expense of $14.6B declined 6% as the bank continues to cut staff, particularly in LAS (legacy mortgage servicing).
- The bank settles with AIG over all MBS issues for $650M, and AIG agrees to pull its objection to BAC's $8.5B private-label securities settlement (the Article 77 proceeding).
- Tangible book value per share of $14.24 up from $13.81 at end of Q1.
- Shares flat premarket
- Previously: Bank of America beats by $0.12, beats on revenue
Wed, Jul. 16, 7:03 AM
Tue, Jul. 15, 5:30 PM
Wed, Apr. 16, 11:46 AM
- The bears, though, are winning the day, with analyst Richard Ramsden saying the stock could see pressure - a result of questions about a path to reaching 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates of $1.60 and $1.85 combining with recent outperformance (stock's beating the BKX by 500 bps YTD).
- The bulls, he says, can point to the best FICC results seen so far from the banks, rapidly declining LAS expenses, stable NIM, and strong capital and liquidity ratios.
- He maintains a Neutral rating and $18 price target on Bank of America (BAC -2.4%).
- Previous earnings coverage
Wed, Apr. 16, 9:23 AM
- "People effectively carry a branch in their pocket," says Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan on the earnings call (live now on Seeking Alpha), noting mobile banking customers grew 19% Y/Y to 15M and 10% of deposits now take place on mobile devices. Consumer banking costs fell 4% from last year, he notes. CFO Bruce Thompson: “We continue to reduce production staffing levels in the quarter consistent with the volumes.”
- Inquiring minds want to know more about the $2.4B boost to litigation reserves, and management is fairly tight-lipped, saying they're about addressing previously disclosed mortgage-related issues. Ambac (AMBC) shareholders looking for movement in their case against BofA may be disappointed as Thompson says the reserve increase isn't about a pending settlement with the monolines.
- Presentation slides
- Earlier BofA earnings coverage
- Just ahead of the open, shares -1.6%.
Wed, Apr. 16, 7:23 AM
- Adjusted EPS of $0.35 compares to estimates of $0.27, with the $6B settlement weighing on the headline EPS loss of $0.05.
- Net interest income of $10.3B fell 5% Y/Y, with NIM of 2.36% up six basis points. Noninterest income of $12.5B is flat from last year, with lower mortgage banking income and trading profits offset by increases in investment and brokerage income, equity investment income and gains on the sale of debt securities.
- Provision for credit losses of $1B is down 41%. Net charge-offs of $1.4B down 45%, with net charge-off ratio of 0.62% comparing to 1.14% a year ago. Reserve release of $379M vs. $804M a year ago.
- Noninterest expense of $22.2B is up from $19.5B a year ago, with higher mortgage litigation costs ($6B vs. $2.2B) partly offset by cuts in Legacy Assets and Servicing (LAS). Excluding litigation, expenses fell $1.2B Y/Y.
- Other highlights: Mobile banking customers up 19% to 15M - more than 10% of deposits now done through mobile; first mortgage originations fell 65% Y/Y, with production revenue of $273M comparing to $815M a year ago; Wealth Management net income of $729M vs. $721M a year ago.
- Basel III Common equity ratio of 11.8% up from 11.7% at 2013's end. Tangible book value per share of $13.81 up $0.02 from year's end and from $13.36 one year ago.
- CC live on Seeking Alpha at 8:30
- Press release, Q1 results
- BAC flat premarket in active action
Wed, Apr. 16, 7:02 AM
Wed, Apr. 16, 12:05 AM
Tue, Apr. 15, 5:30 PM
Wed, Jan. 15, 10:03 AM
- "You know what we know," says Bank of America (BAC +3.3%) CFO Bruce Thompson, responding to a question about the Article 77 hearing on approving/throwing out the bank's $8.5B private investor settlement over MBS. The trial is over, says Thompson, and the parties await the judge's ruling.
- Mobile banking continues to take share and the number of branches - which fell to 5,151 in Q4 from 5,478 a year earlier - could drop to less than 5K by year's end, says Thompson. Mobile banking customers of 14.4M compares to 14M in Q3 and 12M a year ago. Yesterday, JPMorgan announced its dropped plans to add new branches.
- CC webcast and slides
- It was a "very strong" quarter, says Goldman's Richard Ramsden, who puts core EPS at something closer to $0.39 (vs. his expectation for $0.31), rather than the $0.29 reported. "Even normalizing for lower market-related NII and lower reserve releases, today's result makes next year's consensus estimate of $1.32 look very achievable, particularly given remaining cost leverage from LAS and New BAC."
- Previous earnings coverage
Wed, Jan. 15, 9:03 AM
- "We still have not approached the true earnings potential of Bank of America (BAC)," says CEO Brian Moynihan, leading off the earnings call. The bank reported EPS of $0.29, beating estimates for $0.26, but adjusting for DVA, litigation, and the artificially low tax rate brings core EPS up to $0.42, notes Hedgeye's Josh Steiner.
- CC webcast and presentation slides
- Declining to answer a question about the Fed stress tests and BofA's capital return plans (will the nominal $0.01 dividend be hiked this year), CFO Bruce Thompson notes the bank's Tier 1 common capital ratio is around 9%, higher than the proposed 8.5% minimum which doesn't take effect until 2019.
- The bank cut 5,826 jobs in Q4 - with the cuts coming in branches and mortgage servicing/origination.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) investors take note: BofA's FICC revenue of $2.1B jumped 16% Y/Y. JPMorgan yesterday reported a 1% Y/Y gain vs. expectations for an 11% decline. The Street expects Goldman to report a 23% decline (after Q3's 44% tumble) and Morgan Stanley an 8% increase. Is a positive surprise looming?
- BAC +2.9% premarket to $17.25, the highest price in nearly 4 years.
BAC vs. ETF Alternatives
Bank of America Corporation is a bank holding and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it provides banking and non-banking financial services and products throughout the United States and in selected international markets.
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