Thu, Aug. 25, 3:43 AM
- Monsanto (NYSE:MON) has withdrawn its application to launch its new pest-resistant cotton seeds in India amid a dispute with the government.
- The move comes after the latter slashed by 70% the royalties that Monsanto could earn from local seed businesses that use the U.S. company's Bollgard gene technology.
- Major losers will be India's seven million cotton farmers, who have benefited massively from access to GM seeds and need the latest generation. Prior to GM bringing its technology to India in 2002, entire cotton fields were often destroyed by boll worms.
- ETFs: BAL, CTNN
Tue, May 24, 5:04 AM
- The strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years has ended, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean cool to their neutral levels.
- The dreaded El Nino led to damaged crop production (such as wheat, palm oil and rice) due to scorching weather across Asia and east Africa, and heavy rains and floods in South America.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, JO, JJG, WEAT, RJA, SOYB, SGG, COW, NIB, CAFE, BAL, CHOC, DAG, CANE, JJA, GRU, AGA, SGAR, USAG, AGF, WEET, FUD, TAGS, CTNN, UAG, DIRT, UBC, ADZ, JJS, LSTK, GRWN
Apr. 29, 2014, 7:15 PM
- U.S. government forecasters predict a more than 65% chance for an El Niño weather phenomenon by the end of the year, a development that threatens to drive up prices for food and other staples.
- El Niño has a reputation for triggering sharp run-ups for prices in markets as diverse as nickel, coffee and soybeans, and commodities investors, traders and analysts are bracing for impact at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
- Global food prices - which at the start of 2014 were expected to be largely flat this year - could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Niño occurs, says World Bank economist James Baffes.
- But Société Générale analysts say it is miners, not farmers, who have the most to worry about; since 1991, nickel prices rose the most (13.9%) during El Niño years among commodities the bank tracks.
- ETFs: DBA, CORN, DBC, JO, JJC, RJA, JJG, WEAT, SOYB, DJP, SGG, DBB, COW, NIB, GSG, RJI, CAFE, BAL, GCC, DAG, USCI, JJA, GRU, CHOC, CANE, JJN, RGRA, AGA, JJT, RGRC, CPER, AGF, GSP, BOM, RJZ, JJU, GSC, LSC, FUD, DJCI, USAG, BOS, SGAR, JJM, DEE, BDD, UCI, LD, WEET, UAG, DYY, DIRT, BCM, CMD, DDP, NINI, JJS, CTNN, TAGS, UBC, CUPM, FOIL, UCD, ADZ, RGRI, LEDD, UBM, CMDT, BDG, SBV, USMI, DPU, LSTK, CSCB, GRWN, HEVY, CSCR
Sep. 4, 2012, 5:12 AM
Amid a wave of broken contracts and price volatility, the International Cotton Association is looking to strengthen a "default list" of firms that break contracts and then ignore arbitration awards in the $70B sector. Farmers and mills have been accused of reneging on contracts as prices fluctuate, with the middlemen merchants suffering the most.| Sep. 4, 2012, 5:12 AM | 1 Comment
Aug. 22, 2012, 12:14 AM"The Chinese economy is only at the beginning of a harsh winter," says Zhang Hongxia - chairman of China's largest cotton-textile maker - estimating cotton usage could shrink 11% this year. Normally consuming 600K tons of cotton/year, Zhang's company used just 204K tons in H1. "We are in a worse situation now, (than) compared with 2008-09." | Aug. 22, 2012, 12:14 AM | 3 Comments
Jul. 9, 2012, 10:42 AMA check of commodity performance (DBC) in H1 shows agricultural commodities (DBA) the top performer, despite steep falls in coffee (JO) and cotton (BAL), as the drought sends grains (JJG) soaring. Leading on the downside are the economically sensitive energy (JJE) and industrial metals (JJM) sectors. | Jul. 9, 2012, 10:42 AM
Jun. 21, 2012, 12:27 PMThe commodity sector is lit up bright red - the markets (stocks too) apparently waiting until today to throw a tantrum over disappointment on no new QE. GLD -2%, SLV -3.6%, Copper (JJC) -2.2%. Crude oil takes out $80/barrel and more, now at $79.45, USO -2.1%. Corn -2.8%, Cotton -6%. | Jun. 21, 2012, 12:27 PM | 10 Comments
Jun. 15, 2012, 5:43 AMChina, the world's largest cotton user, is reportedly looking to buy 1M metric tons of cotton from the U.S. to boost government stockpiles. Sources say 160K tons have been bought since last week. "The Chinese government has become the most important factor in global demand and supply," says analyst Dong Shuangwei, even as "the fundamentals still paint a rather gloomy picture." Cotton futures +2.43%. | Jun. 15, 2012, 5:43 AM | 2 Comments
Mar. 20, 2012, 3:23 PM
Cotton continues near 2-year lows as the U.S. government estimates record crops in key producing countries will expand stockpiles by 32%. "Cotton is a cub right now and can grow into a fully-fledged bear," says a trader. Standing to benefit are clothing retailers such as Gap (GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). Cotton ETF: BAL -49% Y/Y.| Mar. 20, 2012, 3:23 PM
Mar. 12, 2012, 6:40 AM
India continues to flip-flop on cotton, saying today it will now prohibit fresh cotton exports and permit only quantities already registered but not shipped. The trade ministry unexpectedly banned all cotton exports on March 5, then lifted the restriction on Sunday. Muted reaction from cotton futures, +0.3%.| Mar. 12, 2012, 6:40 AM
Mar. 11, 2012, 8:50 AM
India decides to kill a one-week old cotton export ban following protests from farmers and traders. The move will allow growers to get a market price for their product instead of being corralled into selling domestically for less. The ban had led to a spike in cotton prices, which has since reversed.| Mar. 11, 2012, 8:50 AM | 3 Comments
Mar. 6, 2012, 11:04 AM
Mar. 5, 2012, 11:32 AM
India banned cotton exports to ensure supplies for local mills, having already exported 9.4M bales and passed its quota. U.S. producers could benefit, although VIP Commodities says the country is "almost out of cotton." Opinion is split over whether the ban will force prices higher still or whether weak demand at mills will cap them.| Mar. 5, 2012, 11:32 AM
Mar. 5, 2012, 10:07 AM
Mar. 5, 2012, 6:49 AM
India, the world's No. 2 producer of cotton, bans all cotton exports, effective immediately. No explanation of the embargo has been offered. Cotton futures jump 4.5% to $0.92.| Mar. 5, 2012, 6:49 AM | 5 Comments
Jan. 3, 2012, 3:59 PMLooking at the sharp fall in names like MCD, BWLD, DPZ, and PNRA in a bright green tape, Ivan Hoff suggests a repeat of early 2011's reflation trade - long commodities, short restaurants - might be in order. Higher costs put a double hit on restaurants, cutting margins at the same time squeezed consumers are forced to spend less on meals. | Jan. 3, 2012, 3:59 PM | 2 Comments