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Nov. 11, 2013, 10:57 AM
- Those who follow ViroPharma (VPHM +25.5%) likely aren't too surprised by the Shire (SHPG +1.2%) takeout.
- The acquisition rumors have been flying for months and the deal does appear to make strategic sense given SHPG's existing HAE sales force (Firazyr). Here's
Flemming Ornskov: "SHPG is uniquely positioned to drive the continued success of Cinryze ... through our knowledge of the rare disease space, our international infrastructure and our biologics manufacturing expertise."
- SHPG will now be able to offer HAE patients complementary treatments.
- The rare disease business is now expected to comprise ~40% of SHPG's top-line.
- Deutsche's Robyn Karnauskas was pretty close back in September, predicting $52/share in a SHPG bid. Notably, Karnauskas modeled "100% probability [of] Maribavir sales in refractory CMV."
- Notably not moving on the news are shares of BioCryst (BCRX -0.4%) — the company is developing an oral option for HAE.
Sep. 18, 2013, 10:47 AM
- Details are out on BofA/ML's ViroPharma (VPHM -1.1%) downgrade and the color is pretty interesting.
- Rachel McMinn thinks "longer term risks" for Cinryze "could affect" the company's M&A prospects.
- The "biggest risk" flagged by McMinn is (of course) BioCryst's (BCRX +4.3%) BCX4161, repeatedly highlighted in our previous coverage as a potential HAE game changer (it's an oral solution as opposed to sub-Q).
- "VPHM's share price reflects a not insignificant chance of the company being acquired," McMinn notes, but cautions that "based on the product-related risks, [she] sees [no] basis to increase" the price objective ($34).
Sep. 14, 2013, 11:16 AM
- On Friday, Deutsche's Robyn Karnauskas put fair value for ViroPharma (VPHM) in a takeout at $46-52/share. For those curious, details are out regarding the rationale.
- If Shire (SHPG) ends up bidding, Karnauskas sees 70% SG&A synergies and $52/share. SHPG presumably has a hereditary angioedema sales force that would work out nicely thanks to Firazyr.
- For a bidder with no existing HAE sales force, Karnauskas sees $46/share and 25% SG&A synergies.
- Deutsche is modeling "100% probability [of] Maribavir sales in refractory CMV."
- Keep an eye on BioCryst (BCRX) going forward: An oral option for HAE represented by BCX4161 may shakeup a market currently dominated by injectable solutions. BCRX also has a 2nd Gen kallikrein inhibitor in the works.
- Another kallikrein inhibitor: Dyax's (DYAX) Kalbitor
- See previous coverage of the prospective deal here
Sep. 13, 2013, 1:26 PM
- News that ViroPharma (VPHM +24.9%) may have hired Goldman to help the company explore a possible sale won't surprise those who have followed the stock this year.
- Back in June, the shares spiked suddenly after Reuters said the firm had attracted preliminary interest from several potential suitors.
- A buyer would get Cinryze, VPHM's HAE treatment which some say could reach peak sales of $800M by 2020. Cinryze sales in Q2 were $91M, up 22% Y/Y.
- There's also the pipeline catalyst maribavir, which the sell-side thinks could provide meaningful upside (Deutsche in June: 50% chance of $220M in peak sales; Jefferies in June: Maribavir may be "biggest potential source of upside").
- Also moving predictably higher on the news is BioCryst (BCRX +3.1%), whose BCX4161 also treats HAE.
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