Sep. 24, 2014, 8:13 AM
- Retail sales could increase by 4.5% to $986B this holiday season on an improved macroeconomic backdrop, forecasts Deloitte Touche.
- The mark would easily top last year's 2.8% rise.
- Online sales are tipped to rise by 14%.
- Promotional activity across broad retail has been dialed back a touch during the back-to-school season, but is still a risk to margins heading into the crucial shopping period.
- What to watch: This holiday season could be an operational pressure cooker for UPS (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx (NYSE:FDX) with demand expected to be high.
- Related stocks: AAP, AEO, ANF, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, FDO, FL, GPS, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LB, LULU, M, NDN, PIR, RL, TGT, TIF, TJX, UA, URBN, VFC, WMT, ZLC, PERY, SQBG, VNCE, KORS, GIII, KATE, GIL, VRA, ICON, PSMT, AMZN.
- Related ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, IYK, FXD, FDIS, PMR, UGE, RCD, SZK
Mar. 5, 2014, 9:06 AM
- A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC indicates 63% of American support raising the minimum wage.
- Though the Republicans are expected to challenge anything brought to the floor of the House, there's a growing consensus in DC that some minimum wage legislation will eventually pass.
- Democrats argue that the current minimum wage level of $7.25 per hour is low by historical standards when adjusted for inflation.
- Related stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, THI, BDL, NATH, CEC, LUB, BKW, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BJ, CHS, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, HD, JCP, JWN, KR, KSS, LOW, LB, NDN, ODP, PIR, PLCE, RSH, SPLS, SWY, TGT, TJX, URBN, WMT
Feb. 26, 2014, 2:44 PM
- Three Senate Democrats have broken away from Majority Leader Harry Reid's $10.10/hour line in the sand on minimum wage legislation.
- Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Mark Warner of Virginia have all tipped off that they think there could be some room to negotiate over the amount of an increase over the current federal minimum wage of $7.25/hour. The GOP likes the status quo, but is viewed as likely to give some ground in an election year.
- Federal minimum wage legislation could create higher costs in the retail and restaurants sectors as companies adjust to the new higher floor.
- Last week, Gap made a preemptive move to raise its own hourly wage in a development that stirred the pot a little bit.
- Related stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, THI, BDL, NATH, CEC, LUB, BKW, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BJ, CHS, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, HD, JCP, JWN, KR, KSS, LOW, LB, NDN, ODP, PIR, PLCE, RSH, SPLS, SWY, TGT, TJX, URBN, WMT.
Aug. 28, 2013, 10:50 AM
- Retail traffic to U.S. stores has declined in 8 out of the last 10 weeks, according to data compiled from ShopperTrak.
- Though a few on-trend firms such as Michael Kors (KORS +0.1%) and Express (EXPR +8.5%) are still firing on all cylinders, and a heat wave in the Midwest has had an effect, the overall trend for the back-to-school season and holiday season looks weak.
- Analysts also think consumers are likely to pick up their reliance on deals as discretionary spending on housing and automobiles "crowds out" normal outlays.
- Related ETFs: XRT, RTH, PMR, RETL.
- Related stocks: APP, AEO, ANF, AZO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, FDO, FL, GPS, HD, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LTD, LULU, M, NDN, ODP, ORLY, PIR, RGS, RL, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TIF, TJX, UA, UNFI, URBN, VFC, WMT, WRC, ZLC.
Aug. 26, 2013, 10:46 AM
- A consumer paradigm shift toward "things that last" could disrupt the critical holiday shopping season, according to retail analysts.
- After a Q2 which saw Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), hhgregg (HGG), and Conn's (CONN) report solid sales for appliances, a fresh forecast from IBM sees much of the same for H2 with discretionary spending tightening for apparel and incidentals.
- Looking for the trend to end: AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, JCP, JWN, KSS, LTD, M, NDN, NKE, PIR, PLCE, RL, RSH, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TIF, TJX, URBN, WMT, WSM, BKE, PSUN, ZUMZ, EXPR
May 31, 2013, 8:45 AM
A below par reading on personal spending for April was affected by lower gas prices and home heating bills and isn't a biting indictment on retail spending (AEO, ANF, ARO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, DLTR, GPS, HD, JCP, JWN, KSS, LOW, LTD, M, NDN, NKE, ODP, PIR, PLCE, RSH, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TJX, URBN, WMT, WSM, ZLC), according to economists. Auto sales also cooled off just a bit in April which had an impact. So far, retail trends have been largely favorable in May as the height of the spring selling season shifted a few weeks later.| May 31, 2013, 8:45 AM | 4 Comments
Jan. 28, 2013, 10:22 AM
The National Retail Federation forecasts 2013 retail sales will increase at a rate of 3.4%, lower than the 4.2% rise seen in 2012. Consumer attitudes will be influenced by higher payroll taxes and the ongoing fiscal cliff drama before improving in the second half of the year, according to the trade group. Retailers with strong online businesses should be able to ride out the moderate growth period adequately with online sales forecast to rise between 9% and 12% for the year.| Jan. 28, 2013, 10:22 AM | 9 Comments
Nov. 29, 2012, 1:29 PM
Deloitte retail analyst Alison Paul doesn't think the Hurricane Sandy excuse being trotted out by major retailers is too far off base. After accounting for a significant pre-storm slowdown and major power outages in the Northeast, she thinks the numbers as a whole are actually quite good. In that same vein, other analysts point to layaway sales and online sales yet to ship as two categories that will help December compensate for the light November.| Nov. 29, 2012, 1:29 PM | 2 Comments
Nov. 23, 2012, 6:51 AMBlack Friday shopping will be the headline story in retail for the day, but the underlying plot will be the effect online channels have on the total sales hauls. Though various trade groups tag Black Friday weekend shopping to see a 3% to 4% rise this year, online shopping is expected to increase by closer to 15% heading into Cyber Monday. Online has also been where the winners and losers in the sector have been separated with major online forces such as Macy's (M) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) roaring to huge gains - while the likes of J.C. Penney (JCP) and Big Lots (BIG) limp along. | Nov. 23, 2012, 6:51 AM | 1 Comment
Nov. 2, 2012, 7:56 AM
The recent mix of economic news and retail sales reports sets the table for a holiday retail season that will come in better than original forecasts, according to IHS Global Insight. What to watch: While Hurricane Sandy is only an "interruption" to retailers on a strong growth track and an "excuse" for underperformers, two potential drags on Q4 retail sales could be a fiscal cliff that doesn't get resolved or a national election that is in dispute.| Nov. 2, 2012, 7:56 AM | 1 Comment
Oct. 31, 2012, 10:04 AMMall-based retailers and department stores are holding up relatively well in early trading after the effect of Hurricane Sandy was lined up as a major Q4 headwind. The trick now is to figure out which retail firms can recover lost sales. Two notables exceptions to the subdued trading pattern - J.C. Penney (JCP -4.8%) and Sears (SHLD -6.5%) - had a slightly higher percentage of stores in the path of Hurricane Sandy than the average in the sector. | Oct. 31, 2012, 10:04 AM | 12 Comments
Oct. 30, 2012, 10:02 AM
Forecasts on the effect of Hurricane Sandy on retail sales still vary greatly, although the general consensus is that a short-term boost of emergency items will lift sales for select companies while the prolonged cleanup could dampen overall holiday sales. Analysts see the list of losers much longer than the list of winners as home repairs take up a great deal of discretionary spending. In a nutshell: Every retailer has a different Sandy-related thesis, with product and geographic mix essential to estimating Q4 numbers.| Oct. 30, 2012, 10:02 AM | 2 Comments
Oct. 26, 2012, 11:10 AMThough consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years, don't look for retailers to start adjusting guidance anytime soon. In an interview with CNBC yesterday, AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson gave a somewhat frank assessment of how many execs are looking toward Q4 by noting the fiscal cliff could create a standstill to spending over the last ten days of the year as the automatic cuts slated for January 1 loom larger. Even if a late deal is struck, Q4 sales could take a blow. (video) | Oct. 26, 2012, 11:10 AM | 7 Comments
Oct. 22, 2012, 1:14 PM
Retailers want to edge into the holiday shopping season as early as possible this year with most forecasts calling for steady - but not spectacular - spending numbers. Trends to watch: 1) Increased online couponing and promotional activity from fringe players. 2) Managing inventory should be easier with the season starting early and big data initiatives firing up which could help margins. 3) The calendar comes through for retailers with a lush 32-day window between Thanksgiving and Christmas extending the crucial part of the season.| Oct. 22, 2012, 1:14 PM | 2 Comments
Oct. 4, 2012, 7:57 AM
The vibe flowing out of September sales reports from retailers is largely positive with big names such as Costo and Limited Brands showing brisk sales, while teen seller Zumiez (ZUMZ) knocked it out of the park with 18.6% growth. Although back-to-school season numbers look to be beating expectations, the best gift for retail investors may be when Q3 reports roll in with companies showing improved margins as clearance sales were avoided and inventory controls clicked.| Oct. 4, 2012, 7:57 AM
Oct. 2, 2012, 6:45 AMThe National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to rise 4.1% to $586.1B this year. Though the mark would rep the slowest pace of growth since 2009, the forecast is still higher than the average growth of 3.5% realized over the last ten years for the November to December period. Online retail is still a bright spot, with holiday sales expected to rise 12% this year to $96B. | Oct. 2, 2012, 6:45 AM | 9 Comments