BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty TrustNYSE
BPT Distribution Rebound Offers 20% Yield And Short Squeeze Potential
The Forensic Accountant • 58 Comments
The Forensic Accountant • 58 Comments
Why BPT Should Get Cut In Half Again... And Then Again
Alpha Exposure • 65 Comments
Alpha Exposure • 65 Comments
Thu, Oct. 6, 5:21 PM
Wed, Jul. 6, 5:44 PM
Tue, Jun. 28, 2:02 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 12:45 PM
Thu, Apr. 7, 9:14 AM
Thu, Apr. 7, 8:38 AM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) -14.7% premarket after cutting its Q1 dividend rate by ~88% to slightly more than $0.07/unit from $0.60 last quarter.
- A new WSJ article highlights BPT as "a case study in what can go wrong" in royalty trusts, whose payments can disappear if oil prices are too low to make production profitable.
- BPT's production costs are ~$33/bbl and are set to rise in the coming years, and "investors are now starting to realize that the trust probably needs $70 or $80 oil to continue on as long as maybe they had hoped,” says J.P. Morgan's Gabe Daoud Jr.
- Now read "Dying" BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust sinks to 52-week low
Wed, Apr. 6, 5:14 PM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) declares $0.0720430/unit quarterly dividend.
- Forward yield 2.12%
- Payable April 20; for shareholders of record April 16; ex-div April 13.
Mon, Mar. 21, 4:45 PM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) fell 11.2% in today's trade to finish at a new 52-week low and its weakest levels since 2003, capping a 40% loss since the beginning of the month.
- Shares have plummeted since BPT's 10-K filing showed the Trust is expected to stop paying royalties after 2020 based on current oil prices, and BP said it would cut the number of rigs drilling in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay from five to two.
- Between 2011 and 2015, BPT's average per-barrel royalty sank 63% to $13.92 from $37.87, and cash distributions fell 38% to $5.863/unit.
- "BPT seems to be dying,” economist Phil Verleger Jr. says. “The BPT share price has become a bet on oil prices past 2020.”
Mon, Mar. 14, 11:36 AM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty (BPT -7.8%) drops near 52-week lows following a negative report from AlphaExposure, which says the price of the trust would need to be cut in half and then nearly cut in half again before it reaches fair value.
- Modeling cash flows based on WTI oil’s forward pricing curve, AlphaExposure believes BPT's downside to fair value exceeds 70%.
- BPT has plunged 40% since last Wednesday when CAS Investment Partners highlighted new risk language in the trust's 10-K that said royalties would end after 2020.
Wed, Mar. 9, 3:58 PM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty (BPT -23.1%) plunges as CAS Investment Partners says new language in BPT's recent 10-K suggests that BPT's royalty and income oriented investors "bear significant risk."
- CAS refers to a part of the filing in which BPT estimated that "royalty payments to the Trust will continue through the year 2020, and would be zero in the following year. Therefore, no proved reserves are currently attributed to the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust after that date."
- CAS adds that it believes the undiscounted future cash flow value of BPT would be $11.59/share.
- Earlier: BP to reduce rigs working at Prudhoe Bay
Wed, Mar. 9, 12:47 PM
Wed, Mar. 9, 9:15 AM
- Gainers: LINE +27%. ATSG +24%. REXX +21%. DNR +19%. CRC +17%. BUFF +14%. LNCO +14%. BIOC +14%. SXE +14%. CJES +14%. SGY +14%. BETR +11%. AMRN +10%. BTE +9%. DANG +9%. BCEI +8%. GGB +7%. WLL +7%. SDLP +7%. EXPR +7%. CLF 6%. PBR 6%. CHK 6%. PBR.A 5%.
- Losers: SDRL -13%. DSX -9%. BPT -9%. GRPN -5%. PLNT -5%. YELP -5%.
Wed, Jan. 6, 5:44 PM
- BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) declares $0.6018/share quarterly dividend, -14.4% decrease from prior dividend of $0.703.
- Forward yield 10.12%
- Payable Jan. 20; for shareholders of record Jan. 16; ex-div Jan. 13.
Wed, Jan. 6, 12:47 PM
- J.P. Morgan says it expects the harsh oil and gas market conditions will force distribution cuts in 2016 from EV Energy Partners (EVEP -3%), Memorial Production Partners (MEMP -4.6%) and Legacy Reserves (LGCY -5.9%).
- "The market has come to the realization that supportive yield-based valuation metrics remain inadequate as distributions appear unsustainable against liquidity and balance sheet concerns,” JPM analyst Gabriel Daoud writes.
- The firm also downgrades Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR +0.4%) to Neutral from Overweight with a $5 price target, cut in half from $10, and lowers its price target for BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT -6.1%) to $11 from $18.
Dec. 31, 2015, 1:52 PM
- The volatility continues: After getting drubbed yesterday following the release of EIA inventory data, a slew of North American oil/gas industry firms are up strongly today as Nymex natural gas futures rise 6.1% to $2.35/MMBtu. The EIA reported today a weekly U.S. natural gas inventory change of -58 Bcf (close to expectations) to 3,756 Bcf.
- Oil is also higher: WTI crude is up 2.5% to $37.53/barrel, and Brent crude up 3.7% to $37.80/barrel. The S&P is down 0.3%.
- Also: Cheniere Energy (LNG +3.4%) has begun production at its Sabine Pass terminal, which will be the first to export shale gas from the U.S. Partner ING Capital states Cheniere is currently receiving, chilling, and storing 50M cubic feet of gas per day at the facility.
- Major gainers include Southwestern Energy (SWN +9.6%), Williams (WMB +5.6%), Encana (ECA +4.5%), Gulfport Energy (GPOR +5.3%), Whiting Petroleum (WLL +8.2%), Rice Energy (RICE +5.6%), SandRidge Permian Trust (PER +8.9%), Oasis Petroleum (OAS +5.9%), BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT +7.3%), and Baytex Energy (BTE +9.3%). ONEOK is up over 7% after catching an upgrade from Credit Suisse.
Dec. 30, 2015, 12:46 PM
- Hit hard two days ago as oil fell below $37/barrel, oil/gas industry names are seeing more pain today after the EIA reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6M barrels last week - expectations were for a decline. The report comes shortly after the API estimated U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.9M barrels during the most recent weekly period.
- After rising yesterday, WTI crude is down 3.1% to $36.71/barrel. Brent crude is down 2.9% to $36.69/barrel. Nymex natural gas is down 7.3% to $2.20/MMBtu.
- The biggest decliners include Chesapeake Energy (CHK -4.1%), Petrobras (PBR -4.1%), Linn Energy (LINE -7.5%), Gulfport Energy (GPOR -5.2%), SeaDrill (SDRL -5.5%), MV Oil Trust (MVO -4.5%), EV Energy Partners (EVEP -6.7%), and Southwestern Energy (SWN -5.7%).
- Other notable decliners include Hercules Offshore (HERO -5.2%), Marathon Oil (MRO -4%), Devon Energy (DVN -4.4%), Encana (ECA -4.1%), Range Resources (RRC -4.7%), Sandridge Mississippian Trust (SDR -4%), Newfield Exploration (NFX -3.8%), BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT -3.1%), Enerplus (ERF -3.9%), and ONEOK Partners (OKS -2.5%).
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