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  • Thu, Dec. 1, 9:47 AM
    • The global bond rout picks up steam this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up another 5.3 basis points to 2.441%, the 10-year Bund up 4.8 bps to 0.324%, and 10-year yields in Italy, Spain, and the U.K. higher by similar amounts.
    • TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
    • Rolling around the minds of fixed-income investors is incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's consideration of locking in still-historically-low interest rates through the issuance of 50- or 100-year government bonds. At the pace rates are climbing, he better hurry.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, PDI, PCI, RCS, ACG, PCN, PKO, EVV, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, ERC, HTR, FAM, PPT, MMT, GDF, FTF, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, KMM
    | Thu, Dec. 1, 9:47 AM | 37 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 23, 7:46 AM
    • In hoovering up so much government debt, the ECB has removed the key ingredient needed for the repo agreements by which financial outfits lend to each other, reports Reuters.
    • Thus, the central bank is studying ways of lending out more of its stockpile so as to prevent a freeze in the repo market.
    • The issue is most severe in Germany at the moment, with the ECB owning more than 25% of all outstanding government paper. The cost for a fund to borrow a 10-year Bund is up to 1.5% today from 0.40% a year ago. "If a pension fund can't borrow a bond in time, it may have to sell its own cash bond, foregoing a potential return in the future to fulfill a short-term obligation," says one industry player.
    • Everyone knows about the global bond rout of the past weeks, but did you know the German two-year note sunk to an all-time low of -0.74% yesterday?Something is surely going on.
    • Ten-yield yields up are sharply across the board in Europe today.
    • ETFs: GIM, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, GGOV
    | Wed, Nov. 23, 7:46 AM | 2 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 4:00 AM
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 4:00 AM | 1 Comment
  • Thu, Oct. 27, 9:25 AM
    • It's a global event, with the German 10-year Bund yield up 6.5 basis points to 0.152% - a month ago, this was yielding about negative 0.15%.
    • The Italian 10-year is up 4.5 bps to 1.515%; Spain up 5.5 bps to 1.193%. The U.K. 10-year Gilt yield is higher by a full 8 bps to 1.133%.
    • Even the 10-year JGB yield is up 1.2 bps to -0.049%.
    • Towering above them all is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, ahead by 4.1 bps to 1.834% - its highest level since springtime.
    • TLT -0.85%, TBT +1.7% premarket
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, GIM, TMF, BNDX, TTT, ZROZ, BWX, VGLT, TLH, UBT, DLBS, TLO, IGOV, GGOV, VUSTX, DLBL, TYBS
    | Thu, Oct. 27, 9:25 AM | 6 Comments
  • Mon, Sep. 12, 8:31 AM
    • "Extrapolation of the last 35 years will be one of the most dangerous things that policy makers and investors can do going forward," write analysts Jim Reid, Nick Burns and Sukanto Chanda.
    • Included in the report is an amazing chart showing real returns by the decade in developed bond markets. Prior to the 1980s, decades of negative returns were well mixed in which those of positive returns across every economy. From 1980 to present, though, there's not one period of negative returns for even one developed-economy bond market. Not one.
    • The best case scenario as domestic financing markets start to struggle will be some form of capital controls. One might argue this is already occurring through new regulations all-but-forcing banks, insurers, and pension funds to buy domestic paper for reasons other than value.
    • Worst case is a "hard break" in which a major country defaults on its debt.
    • Neither scenario is likely to be favorable for the owners of long-dated fixed-income assets.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, RCS, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, HTR, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, JHI, BHK, PLW, BNDS, IGOV, GOVT, JMM, TAI, INC, ICB, FTT, FBND, VBF
    | Mon, Sep. 12, 8:31 AM | 21 Comments
  • Wed, Jul. 6, 10:32 AM
    • With investors prioritizing return of their money over return on money, not to mention the ECB's massive bond-buying program, yields on more than 50% of the euro-area's $6.39T in sovereign bonds yield less than zero.
    • “It’s starting to feel like 2008,” says a portfolio manager. “Something’s got to give. Government bond yields are telling you something very nasty is about to happen."
    • Back to the ECB's QE ... even that program has its limits. The bank won't purchase any debt yielding below its negative 0.4% deposit rate, making nearly $2B (and counting) of Europe's sovereign debt ineligible for buys.
    • ETFs: GIM, BNDX, BWX, IGOV
    | Wed, Jul. 6, 10:32 AM
  • Mon, Jun. 13, 11:01 AM
    | Mon, Jun. 13, 11:01 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 18, 2015, 3:41 AM
    • Government bond yields across the globe are in party mode after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in a nod to concerns about a weak global economy.
    • The German 10-year yield - the eurozone benchmark - is down 8 bps to 0.69%, mirroring a similar move in U.S. Treasuries overnight.
    • Equivalents in France, Spain, Italy and the U.K. fell even further, dropping 9-11 basis points, following Asian yields lower.
    • ETFs: FAX, GIM, EU, BNDX, JGBS, JGBD, DSUM, BWX, AUNZ, ALD, IGOV, BUNL, JGBL, CBON, GGOV, BUNT, JGBT, JGBB, CHNB
    | Sep. 18, 2015, 3:41 AM | 6 Comments
  • Jul. 6, 2015, 6:24 AM
    • So where are bonds going following the referendum? Investors are still selling off riskier assets, although the declines are muted compared with a week ago on increased hopes for a deal with Varoufakis gone.
    • As expected, money is flowing into the U.S. and Germany's fixed-income markets, and out of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece.
    • 10-year bond yields: U.S. -0.8% to 2.3%; Germany -6 bps to 0.73%; Spain +10 bps to 2.31%; Italy +10 bps to 2.34%; Portugal +11 bps to 3.02%; Greece +48 to 14.82%.
    • ETFs: GIM, EU, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, BUNL, BUNT, GGOV
    | Jul. 6, 2015, 6:24 AM
  • Jun. 29, 2015, 4:44 AM
    • With a Greek default on the horizon, a divergence in the direction of bond yields is at work today, with money flowing into Germany's fixed-income market, and out of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece.
    • The turbulence is in contrast to last week, when benchmark German bunds fell and Spanish securities advanced amid optimism a deal would be reached.
    • 10-year bond yields: Germany -18 bps to 0.74%; Spain +24 bps to 2.34%; Italy +24 bps to 2.39%; Portugal +30 bps to 2.99%.
    • The yield on Greek 10-year securities jumped the highest since December 2012, shooting up 379 basis points to 14.63%.
    • ETFs: GIM, EU, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, BUNL, BUNT, GGOV
    | Jun. 29, 2015, 4:44 AM | 7 Comments
  • Jun. 10, 2015, 4:39 AM
    • The yield on 10-year German government bunds broke above 1% overnight for the first time since September 2014 amid a broader global bond selloff that's been deepening since late April. The U.S. 10-year yield jumped 6 bps to 2.48%.
    • The renewed ascent for German yields started last week when ECB President Mario Draghi said investors should get used to periods of higher bond market volatility and stated the central bank wouldn't do anything about it.
    • ETFs: GIM, EU, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, BUNL, BUNT, GGOV
    | Jun. 10, 2015, 4:39 AM
  • Jun. 4, 2015, 3:23 AM
    • Bond yields across global markets continued their sell-off into Thursday as a six-week-long bond rout rumbled on.
    • Yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi said asset prices tend to be more volatile in a low interest rate environment and policymakers were prepared to look through the sharp rise in yields.
    • With the ECB seeing no reason to adjust its stance on monetary policy, German 10-year Bund yields rose to fresh 2015 highs today at 0.95% (up from near zero in mid-April). U.S. 10-year yield +1 to 2.38%.
    • European stocks: FTSE 100 -1.3%; DAX -1.6%; CAC 40 -1.9%; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.6%
    • ETFs: GIM, EU, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, BUNL, BUNT, GGOV
    | Jun. 4, 2015, 3:23 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 13, 2015, 4:22 AM
    • Global bond yields will start to stabilize despite a selloff that has sent yields soaring in recent sessions, Pimco chief investment officer Scott Mather told CNBC in a Closing Bell interview.
    • Yesterday, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield hit a six-month high of 2.36% before reversing, while sovereign yields across Europe broadly moved higher.
    • Despite those moves, the bond selloff's "worst phase" has likely ended, said Mather, pointing to a higher-than-expected supply of corporate debt and an "unusual" supply month in Europe as possible explanations for rising yields.
    • Ten-year Bund yields -2 bps to 0.65%; U.S. 10-year yield -3 to 2.23%.
    • ETFs: GIM, EU, BNDX, BWX, IGOV, BUNL, BUNT, GGOV
    | May 13, 2015, 4:22 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 7, 2015, 11:18 AM
    • The German 10-year Bund yield soared to as high as 0.70% earlier, but has since retreated to 0.60%, up one basis point on the day. 10-year yields in Spain and Italy flew to above 2%, but are now sharply lower on the session at 1.73% and 1.78%, respectively.
    • The U.S. 10-year yield hit 2.30% during this period, and has now also pulled back to 2.22%, off two bps on the session.
    • "This Bund [yield] rally has caused a great deal of dislocation for fixed income investors," says the team at Barclays, noting a rise in yields of this size (here's a chart) has occurred just two other times in the past 15 years, and pointing to only 5% in a recent survey saw bond yields higher than 50 bps by the end of June.
    • The moves in Germany and elsewhere are classic "pain trades," says HSBC's Steven Major. "The pain trade is a steeper curve, so given what happened in the past few weeks, this pain could have been excruciating."
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • ETFs: EU, BNDX, BWX, PLW, STPP, IGOV, GOVT, FLAT, BUNL, ITLY, ITLT, GGOV, BUNT, TAPR
    | May 7, 2015, 11:18 AM | 1 Comment
  • May 6, 2015, 4:36 AM
    | May 6, 2015, 4:36 AM | 5 Comments
  • Apr. 16, 2015, 9:40 AM
    • The Big Short was Michael Lewis' classic about how some made billions shorting subprime mortgage-backed securities ahead of the financial collapse. Now hedge funder Paul Singer says he's found a bigger short in plain old bonds.
    • Speaking at the Grant's Spring Conference, Singer wonders "why bondholders persist in trusting that the central banks will be capable of creating just enough inflation and not a farthing more."
    • Further, why do bondholders believe - as the former Fed chair, now citizen blogger (and now with Ken Griffin's Citadel) has said - that central bankers can cure an inflation overshoot in "ten minutes."
    • Inflation, says Singer, is already perky if you hang around the same circles he does. "The roaring markets for financial assets, high-end real estate and art, and other things that investors and the rich own or use, should be seen for what it is: a modern and peculiar form of inflation which is sectorial and emerges from a modern and peculiar policy mix. And this is the coming attraction for a more generalized inflation of the future.."
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, BNDX, BWX, SCHZ, PLW, LAG, IGOV, GOVT, DI, FBND, RIGS, SAGG, GBF, IUSB, LDUR, TAPR, FWDB, VBND
    | Apr. 16, 2015, 9:40 AM | 2 Comments
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