Calix Has Several Near Term Growth Issues
Calix: The Local Telco's Favorite
Wed, Feb. 10, 1:27 PM
- Calix (NYSE:CALX) is off sharply in spite of beating Q4 estimates with the help of strong FCC CAF II program orders. On the earnings call (transcript), the last-mile telecom equipment vendor guided for Q1 revenue of $95M-$99M and EPS of -$0.15 to -$0.11 vs. a consensus of $95.9M and -$0.07. EPS guidance improves to -$0.10 to -$0.06 is one backs out $2.6M in expected litigation expenses.
- Q4 EPS benefited from $16.1M worth of buybacks. On the other hand, gross margin fell 160 bps Y/Y to 46.5%, and missed guidance of 47%-48% - Calix blames a mix shift towards international sales. Q1 GM guidance is also at 47%-48%. Calix ended Q4 with $73.6M in cash and no debt.
- Calix's Q4 results, earnings release
Fri, Jan. 8, 12:49 PM
Fri, Jan. 8, 10:11 AM
- A day after Adtran (ADTN +5.8%) outperformed on an MKM upgrade, both Adtran and telecom access network hardware peer Calix (CALX +8.4%) have received upgrades to Buy from Stifel. The firm's targets are respectively $21 and $10.
- Stifel sees Adtran benefiting from CAF Phase II projects with several partners and "largely stable revenue" from Deutsche Telekom and Latin American carriers. MKM argued yesterday CAF Phase II orders and projects with CenturyLink and AT&T would provide a lift.
- Calix cratered in late October due to the soft Q4 guidance provided with a Q3 beat - cautious budgeting by carriers was blamed. Shares closed yesterday $0.64 above a 52-week low of $6.30.
Oct. 30, 2015, 12:45 PM
Oct. 30, 2015, 11:43 AM
- While Calix (NYSE:CALX) beat Q3 estimates, it guided on its earnings call (transcript) for Q4 revenue of $102M-$106M and EPS of -$0.04 to $0.00, below a consensus of $116.5M and $0.12. CEO Carl Russo: "While we saw a good performance from our larger customers in Q3, some of them have been cautious in their communications of their remaining capex plans."
- During the Q&A, management was asked if delayed spending related to FCC CAF II funds was a factor. Russo: "We now know how much all of our customers are taking from CAF II. And in fact what we're seeing is they are now down into such detailed planning that it's actually had a negative effect on the year end spending. So, yes, we are very encouraged by CAF II and what we're seeing into 2016, but it's actually had a flowing affect in Q4 and that's being called out."
- Q3 EPS benefited from a 450 bps Y/Y increase in gross margin to 49.3%; Q4 GM guidance is at 49.1%-49.4%. Management spent much time on the call talking up the potential of Calix's Linux-based AXOS software platform for broadband access networks. AXOS runs on a variety of hardware, lets software components (and the services they enable) run independently from each other, and allows individual processes to be upgraded without system disruption.
- Q3 results, PR
Oct. 1, 2015, 10:04 AM
- Northland Securities has launched coverage on fiber/access telecom equipment vendors Adtran (ADTN +1.5%) and Calix (CALX +2.6%) with Outperform ratings. Shares are higher on a morning the Nasdaq is down 0.8%.
- With weak U.S. wireline capex weighing, both companies have had rough years: Adtran is down 31% YTD, and Calix down 21%.
Sep. 11, 2015, 12:45 PM
- Finisar (FNSR -18.4%) has plunged to its lowest levels since 2012 after missing FQ1 estimates, providing soft FQ2 guidance, and announcing chairman Jerry Rawls is replacing Eitan Gertel as CEO.
- Optical component/module peers Alliance Fiber (AFOP -4.6%), Lumentum (LITE -2.3%), and Oclaro (OCLR -6%) are also off, as are equipment vendors Infinera (INFN -3.8%), Ciena (CIEN -2.8%), Adtran (ADTN -2.3%), and Calix (CALX -2.5%). The Nasdaq is nearly flat.
- During Finisar's earnings call (transcript), Rawls noted his company continues to "see a high level of competition," and is aiming to cut operating expenses to ~20% of revenue from FQ1's 21.8%. CFO Kurt Adzema mentioned wireless and legacy 100G datacom component sales were soft in FQ1, and that Finisar is now seeing "some lumpiness" for 40G data center sales.
- Adzema insisted the competition (much of it around low-end/10G products) is business as usual. "The lower end products always [face] competition from non-tier 1 companies and in some period of time, it just takes whether it’s a one year or a three year or whatever the period, tier 2 competitors always catch up." Rawls promised 25G/100G Ethernet data center upgrade cycles would drive growth next year.
- MKM and B. Riley have downgraded Finisar to Neutral, and several other firms have cut targets. MKM's Michael Genovese cites datacom competition/price pressure, and states he's "becoming less convinced that there is an easy path to industry consolidation that will help alleviate ... significant Optical component industry challenges,"
- At the same time, Genovese defends Ciena, Infinera, and Lumentum (formerly JDS Uniphase's component unit). "Ciena and Infinera actually slightly benefit from more [component] competition and lower prices since they are customers ... we believe the negative revisions in Finisar's outlook are much more on the Datacom side than on the Telecom side ... Finisar is an incumbent that derives 75% of overall revenues from Datacom, while Lumentum is a relatively new challenger with only 20% of revenues from Datacom ... we are much more confident in the demand and pricing environments for 100G Telecom (Metro and [long-haul]) components than we are for Datacom, and Lumentum has significantly more exposure to 100G Telecom than Finisar."
Jul. 29, 2015, 12:45 PM
Jul. 29, 2015, 11:10 AM
- With shares going into earnings just $0.14 above a 52-week low of $6.86 (set yesterday), Calix's (NYSE:CALX) Q2 beat is going over well. On its earnings call (transcript), the telecom equipment vendor guided for Q3 revenue of $107M-$111M and EPS of $0.05-$0.09 (a penny higher if litigation expenses are excluded), in-line with a consensus of $109.4M and $0.08.
- Calix's GigaCenter line (private-label home Wi-Fi access points for carriers) was a strong point in Q2, with service provider clients topping 300. Calix also generally reports seeing strong demand from tier-2/3 carriers.
- Boosting Q2 EPS: Gross margin was 51%, up 330 bps Y/Y, above a 48%-49% guidance range, and surpassing 50% for the first time. Calix ended Q2 with $99.5M in cash/investments (compares with a $440.4M market cap), and no debt. $3.4M was spent on buybacks.
- Q2 results, PR
Jul. 28, 2015, 5:35 PM
Apr. 30, 2015, 2:32 PM| Apr. 30, 2015, 2:32 PM
Apr. 29, 2015, 3:30 PM
- Tech companies rallying after posting earnings include telecom analog/mixed-signal chipmaker InPhi (IPHI +11.5%) and process-optimization/supply-chain software vendor Aspen Technology (AZPN +6.3%). Those down strongly include telecom equipment vendor Calix (CALX -8.1%), pay-TV infrastructure hardware provider Harmonic (HLIT -6.4%), and cloud HR software vendor Ultimate Software (ULTI -5.6%).
- InPhi beat Q1 estimates and offered in-line Q2 guidance: Revenue of $59.6M-$60.8M and EPS of $0.22-$0.24 vs. a consensus of $60.6M and $0.23. With shares having sold off going into earnings thanks to soft guidance from peers, the outlook is better than feared.
- Aspen beat FQ3 estimates and issued strong FY15 (ends June '15) guidance on its CC (transcript): Revenue of $437M-$439M and EPS of $1.41-$1.43, above a consensus of $436.9M and $1.33.
- Calix missed Q1 estimates and offered light guidance on its CC (transcript): Revenue of $94M-$98M and EPS of -$0.06 to -$0.02, below a consensus of $104.4M and $0.05. The company blames delays in the rollout of carrier capex budgets.
- Harmonic beat Q1 estimates, but also guided for Q2 revenue of $97M-$107M, below a $108.4M consensus. The company blames macro issues in several regions, a strong dollar, customer M&A activity, and the deferred revenue components of new projects.
- Ultimate posted roughly in-line Q1 results and guided for Q2 revenue of $146M, below a $148.4M consensus. Full-year revenue growth guidance of 22% is in-line. Many peers are rallying following a report stating Salesforce has received buyout interest.
- Previously covered: Twitter, GoPro, LogMeIn, Xoom, GrubHub, MicroStrategy, Smith Micro, AppliedMicro, OpenText
Mar. 24, 2015, 3:18 PM
- Today's notable tech gainers include chip packaging/testing firm ChipMOS (IMOS +3.7%), and headphone maker Skullcandy (SKUL +3.9%), mobile banking tech provider Mitek (MITK +6.5%), search toolbar/mobile ad platform provider Perion (PERI +8.8%), Chinese social network/game provider Renren (RENN +4.8%), peripherals giant Logitech (LOGI +4%), security IP licensing firm Finjan (FNJN +13.7%).
- Notable decliners include e-commerce services firm ChannelAdvisor (ECOM -5.6%), program guide/content protection IP firm Rovi (ROVI -4.3%), telecom equipment vendor Calix (CALX -3.5%), and Fibre Channel/Ehternet switch vendor Brocade (BRCD -3.4%).
- Likely helping Finjan: An H.C. Wainwright note stating the company has committed $5M to a Jerusalem Venture Partners (JVP) cybersecurity fund; Alibaba announced yesterday it's investing in JVP. Logitech announced a $100 wireless mouse today. Skullcandy is once more within striking distance of a 52-week high of $11.83.
- Previously covered: Twitter, solar stocks, Sonus/AudioCodes/BroadSoft, Neonode, Arista, Taser, Ciena, Zagg, Gogo, Digital Ally
Mar. 11, 2015, 3:08 PM
- A day after equity markets tumbled (with many high-beta names especially hard-hit), major tech gainers are outnumbering major decliners, though the Nasdaq is nearly flat.
- Today's notable tech gainers include RF backhaul hardware vendors DragonWave (DRWI +15.6%) and Aviat (AVNW +8%), LED lighting provider Revolution Lighting (RVLT +5.4%) online textbook rental/learning services provider Chegg (CHGG +3.8%), auto site TrueCar (TRUE +5.3%), loan-shopping site owner Lendingtree (TREE +6.9%), telecom equipment vendor Calix (CALX +2.7%), TV/set-top SoC provider Sigma Designs (SIGM +4.9%), and VoIP hardware/software provider Mitel (MITL +3.8%).
- Notable decliners include supercomputer maker SGI (SGI -2.9%), 3D printing software vendor Materialise (MTLS -5.5%), security hardware/software provider KEYW Holding (KEYW -2.9%), and Chinese online game developer Changyou (CYOU -2.9%).
- DragonWave and Aviat are reversing yesterday's big losses. Materialise is making fresh 52-week lows a week after posting mixed Q4 results; KEYW is also seeing new 52-week lows. Revolution's gains continue a volatile post-earnings ride: Shares soared last week after the company posted its Q4 results, but gradually gave back their gains.
- Previously covered: SanDisk, Intel, EMC, SunEdison, Resonant, Immersion, Logitech, VeriFone, Mobileye, Dangdang, InvenSense
Feb. 4, 2015, 12:44 PM
Feb. 4, 2015, 9:41 AM
- Though it beat Q4 revenue estimates and posted in-line EPS, Calix (NYSE:CALX) guided on its Q4 CC (transcript) for Q1 revenue of $89M-$93M and EPS of -$0.04 to -$0.09, below a consensus of $94.6M and $0.02.
- Pressuring EPS: Operating expenses are expected to rise to $46.5M-$47.5M from $40.7M a year earlier. Gross margin is expected to be in a 47.5%-48.5% range after totaling 48.1% in Q4 and 45.9% a year earlier.
- CFO William Atkins: "Due to the book, bill and ship nature of our business our visibility can generally be limited to the next 90 days. With Q1 being the most difficult quarter to project given that many of our customers are still finalizing our budgets." JDS Uniphase stated last week 2015 carrier budgets remain in flux.
- Q4 results, PR
Calix, Inc. provides broadband communications access systems and software for fiber and copper-based network architectures that enable communications service providers to transform their networks and connect to their residential and business subscribers. It enable communications service... More
Industry: Communication Equipment
Country: United States
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