Cogent Communications Group, Inc.NASDAQ
Cogent Communications Screens Poorly But Value Is There
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Wed, Nov. 9, 11:34 AM
- While Time Warner is trading lower as investors digest a slimmer chance of a buyout by AT&T under a Trump administration, Sprint (NYSE:S) -- a company long thought to again become a merger prospect after a change in the White House -- is up 12.5% and hitting two-year highs today.
- Its oft-discussed merger matchup partner, T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is up 3.8%.
- Meanwhile, changes are likely coming to the FCC, Wells Fargo argues: It will at least be more conservative, if not working under new leadership soon; expecting Chairman Tom Wheeler to stay a full term is "no longer realistic."
- "If the rhetoric of those surrounding Trump’s campaign rings true, we can expect a Republican FCC to make a big push to roll back some of the regulations put in place under President Obama such as the Title II/Net Neutrality rules," writes analyst Jennifer Fritzsche. "There may also be a push to roll back some or all of what the FCC just did on privacy."
- "It’s unclear whether Chairman Wheeler will be able to act on the open items related to Business Data Services or set top box reform before he departs and if he does not, some suggest a Republican FCC will reverse course on these two items. There is also a big question on how a Trump FCC will view transactions including the recently announced T/TWX merger and the LVLT/CTL transaction."
- LVLT +0.4%; CTL +0.5%. TWX -1%. Names tied to net neutrality: T, VZ, CMCSA, CHTR, OTCPK:ATCEY, CTL, FTR, CCOI, DISH.
Fri, Oct. 28, 1:40 PM
- CenturyLink (CTL -1.4%) is giving back some of yesterday's merger-chatter gains, but Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ:LVLT) is adding on, up another 3.9% today.
- Level 3 jumped 10.6% yesterday, and CenturyLink rose 10%, on a report that the two were in advanced talks to merge.
- Level 3's at $53.90 today (after closing at $46.92 on Wednesday), and it's looking for at least $60/share in a buyout and $65 "could be reasonable," says Raymond James, which cut CenturyLink to Market Perform from Outperform -- thinking that stock could trade sideways for the months it could take to close such a deal.
- UBS sees the deal cresting $1B in synergies, given the companies' overlapping infrastructure. Analyst Batya Levi is assuming an all-stock deal at 9-11 times EBITDA and has CenturyLink at a Buy with a $36 price target (implying 18% upside).
- Oppenheimer's Timothy Horan, meanwhile, sees more of a 50/50 cash/stock split at a $60 valuation for LVLT. He's got CTL at Market Perform but boosts LVLT to Outperform at that $60 target.
- Among peers (and other potential targets) today: CCOI -1.2%, INXN +2%, GTT flat, ZAYO +1.9%, AKAM +0.9%, FTR -2.4%.
May 13, 2015, 6:50 PM
- Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) and Cogent Communications (NASDAQ:CCOI), along with other advocacy groups, have spelled out the conditions they'd like to see for a successful AT&T (NYSE:T) purchase of DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV).
- Opponents to the deal met with FCC staffers last week; AT&T is expected to meet with deal reviewers in the coming days, and hopes to close the deal by the end of June.
- Dish, Cogent and other critics asked that AT&T promise to sell Internet as a standalone service outside of its bundles at a reasonable price, and they asked the FCC to make AT&T comply with stricter net neutrality provisions for seven years, regardless of how AT&T's suit against the rules comes out.
- Also requested: that AT&T include all video in any data caps, and restrictions on how AT&T handles interconnect traffic -- which particularly affects Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Dish's new Sling TV streaming service, key competition for DirecTV service.
- Previously: Cogent joins Netflix in demanding conditions for AT&T/DirecTV combo (May. 05 2015)
- Previously: Netflix to FCC: Reject AT&T/DirecTV merger (May. 05 2015)
May 5, 2015, 11:47 PM
- Cogent Communications (NASDAQ:CCOI) joined Netflix today in calling for conditions on the proposed merger of AT&T (NYSE:T) and DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV).
- Data carriers like Cogent (along with firms like Netflix) are focused on interchange issues, the fees that a broadband behemoth could collect for accepting Internet traffic -- and their opposition, or the nature of it, could be good news for the deal, says industry analyst Craig Moffett.
- The reason? The companies could be kingmakers by urging concessions, he says: They helped sink the Comcast-TWC deal, and now with AT&T/DirecTV, “two of the most ardent opponents are tacitly blessing the idea of the merger as long as there are appropriate conditions.”
- The two say that a combined AT&T/DirecTV with no restrictions will have a bigger incentive to stymie streaming entertainment.