Receptos Continues To Reward
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Multiple Observations On Celgene's Latest Licensing Deals, And Its Valuation
DoctoRx • 75 Comments
DoctoRx • 75 Comments
Celgene: A Pre-Earnings Discussion Based On Recent News
DoctoRx • 39 Comments
DoctoRx • 39 Comments
Thu, Apr. 28, 11:37 AM
- Credit Suisse claims Medivation (MDVN +8%) is worth $55 a share, ~5% above Sanofi's (SNY -1.1%) unsolicited bid of $52.50. It says much of the attention has focused on the prospects of prostate cancer drug XTANDI (enzalutamide), approved by the FDA in August 2012, which generated $1.15B in the U.S. last year as reported by development and commercialization partner Astellas Pharma (OTCPK:ALPMF)(OTCPK:ALPMY). What appears to be underrepresented is the value of the company's pipeline, led by late-stage PARP inhibitor talazoparib.
- According to the analyst, other potential bidders include AstraZeneca (AZN -0.5%), Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY -0.5%) and Celgene (CELG +0.9%).
- AstraZeneca reportedly has held internal talks about an offer. Medivation rejected Sanofi's first approach several weeks ago, so the bidding could turn hostile if the board rejects $52.50, a likely scenario.
- Citi says Sanofi's offer is a bit light considering MDVN's 52-week high of $66.39, hit in June of last year. The board might reject the offer based purely on technical grounds.
- Previously: Medivation +9% AH on reported Sanofi takeover effort (April 12)
- Previously: Report: AstraZeneca held talks for Medivation bid (April 18)
Thu, Apr. 28, 8:26 AM
- Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) Q1 results ($M): Total Revenues: 2,511.6 (+20.7%); Net Product Sales: 2,494.7 (+21.4%).
- Net Income: 800.7 (+11.4%); Non-GAAP Net Income: 1,064.3 (+19.5%); EPS: 0.99 (+15.1%); Non-GAAP EPS: 1.32 (+23.4%).
- Key Product Sales: Revlimid: 1,573.6 (+17.2%); Abraxane: 224.9 (+0.7%); Pomalyst/Imnovid: 274.0 (+38.0%); Vidaza: 146.7 (+2.2%); Otezla: 195.6.
- 2016 Guidance: Net Product Sales: $10.75B - 11.0B from $10.5B - 11.0B; Revlimid: ~$6.7B from $6.6B - 6.7B; Abraxane: $950M - 1B from >$1B; Pomalyst/Imnovid: >$1B (unch); Otezla: >$1B (unch); EPS: $4.26 - 4.56 from $4.26 - 4.64; Non-GAAP EPS: 5.60 - 5.70 from $5.50 - 5.70.
- 2017 Targets: Net Product Sales: $12.7B - 13.0B from $13.0 - 14.0B; Revlimid: ~$8.0B from $7.0B; Abraxane: ~$1.0B from $1.5B - 2.0B; Non-GAAP EPS: $6.75 - 7.00 from $7.25.
- 2020 Targets: Net Product Sales: >$21.0B; Non-GAAP EPS: >$13.00.
- Shares are down 2% premarket on increased volume.
Thu, Apr. 28, 7:33 AM
Wed, Apr. 27, 5:30 PM
- AB, ABBV, ACOR, ADP, AEP, AET, AIT, ALKS, ALLE, ALXN, AME, APD, ASPS, AUO, AVT, AXTA, BC, BCOR, BG, BLL, BMS, BMY, BOFI, BWA, BWEN, BXLT, BZH, CAB, CAH, CBG, CCE, CELG, CHTR, CIT, CL, CLF, CLFD, CME, CMS, COMM, COP, COR, CRCM, CRI, CRR, CSH, CVI, CVRR, CWT, CY, DBD, DFT, DLX, DNKN, DOW, DPZ, EME, EPD, EQM, EQT, F, FCFS, FCN, GEO, GLOP, GNC, GOV, GTLS, GWR, HAR, HEES, HHS, HMC, HUN, I, IDA, IDCC, INGR, INSY, INT, IPGP, IQNT, IRDM, IRM, ITC, ITCI, IVC, IVZ, KERX, LANC, LBY, LKQ, LVLT, MA, MD, MDP, MHO, MINI, MITK, MJN, MMC, MO, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, MTH, NEE, NEWM, NOV, OAK, ODFL, ORI, OSK, PF, PJC, POT, PPL, PRLB, PTEN, QSR, RGS, RTIX, RTN, RUTH, SABR, SCG, SEE, SFE, SIRI, SNAK, SNE, SPB, SPIL, SQNS, TFX, THRM, TMO, TOWR, TPX, TWC, TZOO, UAN, UBSI, UFS, UPS, UTHR, VA, VAC, VC, VIAB, VIVO, WCC, WM, WNS, WST, XRS, YNDX, ZBH
Wed, Apr. 20, 11:18 AM
- According to Leerink's Geoff Porges, drug makers appear to be taking little heed to politicians' outcries over high prices. In a research note, he says, "The price increases for established brands across our coverage have been substantial indeed. To the surprise of many investors, it now appears these price increases are likely to flow through to actual sales growth, with such growth more than offsetting any volume weakness in Q1 and resulting in significant positive revenue surprises for those companies when they report Q1 results."
- He cites Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ +0.8%) Q1 results released yesterday. Its total business was flat (+0.6%) but its pharmaceuticals unit was up 12.9%. His analysis showed as much as 90% of the list price increases are flowing through to reported sales, some as high as 100%.
- Over the past year, Amgen (AMGN +0.7%) increased its drug prices 8 - 28%, Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.9%) 10 - 18% for its HIV drugs and Biogen (BIIB -1.6%) 10 - 18%, according to Mr. Porges.
- Biogen reports tomorrow. Eli Lilly (LLY -0.3%), Baxalta (BXLT -1.4%), AbbVie (ABBV +0.9%), Celgene (CELG +0.4%), Bristol-Myers Sqibb (BMY +0.3%) and Shire (SHPG -1.6%) report next week. Pfizer (PFE +1%) and Merck (MRK -0.2%) report the week after. Amgen (AMGN +0.7%) is due to report shortly as is Gilead.
Thu, Apr. 14, 4:35 PM
- In a regulatory filing, Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AGIO) reports that it and Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) have agreed to defer the selection process for allocating the rights to certain discovery programs under their April 2010 Collaboration and License Agreement from April 14 to June 1. The partners are currently discussing an alternative approach for determining their respective rights to the programs.
- The companies inked their strategic collaboration on April 15, 2010, with the aim of discovering, developing and commercializing oncology therapies based on Agios' cancer metabolism research platform which targets key metabolic enzymes unique to rapidly growing cancer cells. Agios received a $130M upfront payment at that time while extending Celgene an initial three-year period of exclusivity during which it had the option to develop certain drug candidates. The exclusivity period was extended to four years in October 2011 and to five years in December 2013. In December 2014, Celgene elected to extend it to April 2016, the final year for the discovery phase of the contract. Agios received a $20M payment for each one-year extension.
- In April of last year, Celgene paid $10M upfront plus a commitment for $70M more for a 50% share of AG-881, a small molecule candidate that can penetrate the blood brain barrier and inhibit a cancer-associated enzyme called isocitrate dehydrogenase-1.
Mon, Apr. 11, 9:41 AM
- Juno Therapeutics (JUNO +1.3%) earns a $50M fee from Celgene (CELG -0.4%) triggered by the latter's decision to exercise its option to develop and commercialize Juno's CD19 program outside North America and China. The companies will now share global development expenses for CD19-related therapeutics. Juno will earn mid-teens royalties from commercial sales of the products in the territories. It retains its commercialization rights in North America and China.
- Juno has three CD19-directed product candidates in development for a range of blood cancers: JCAR015 (Phase 2), JCAR017 (Phase 1) and JCAR014 (Phase 1).
- Last summer, the two companies inked a 10-year collaboration to develop therapies for cancer and autoimmune diseases.
- Previously: Juno up 53% after hours on 10-year Celgene deal (June 29, 2015)
Fri, Apr. 8, 5:01 AM
- Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG): Target $144. Implied upside 33%. "We believe that CELG looks cheap relative to its growth after reviewing current and pipeline products. We see more upside on base business products than consensus and guidance. We like Celgene’s pipeline that consists of internal and external candidates that leads us to believe it is best in class."
- Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD): Target $116. Implied upside 19%. Concerns over the patent cliff and lack of revenue sustainability have contracted the 2016 P/E multiple to 8x. Fears are overdone and shares trade at a steep discount.
- Biomarin (NASDAQ:BMRN): Target $109. Implied upside 22%. Upcoming catalysts could lead to outperformance over the next few months. Management sounds upbeat. "If we see positive data in these events we think stock could be worth $126-134/share. Big surprise factor would be an EU DMD approval (not in our valuation) worth $47/share."
- Now read Gilead: My Impatience Grows »
Wed, Mar. 30, 11:19 AM
- "What concerns us most is the continued extreme overweight in lower quality stocks," says BAML's Savita Subramanian. A strategy of buying the ten most underweight stocks and selling the ten most overowned stocks has generated an average alpha of 15 percentage points per year, she says.
- This chart from the BAML report shows the 11 most overowned stocks based on percentage of funds holding vs. their weighting in the S&P 500. At the top is PCLN, followed by MA, BIIB, V, MDT, TWX, ESRX, BA, AMGN, CELG, AMZN.
- Among those underowned are: AGL Resources (NYSE:GAS) and Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO).
- via Scott Barlow
Wed, Mar. 16, 11:47 AM
- The first patient has been dosed in Halozyme's (HALO -4.2%) Phase 3 clinical trial assessing the combination of Orphan Drug-tagged PEGPH20 and Celgene's (CELG -0.7%) Abraxane (nab-paclitaxel), with the chemo agent gemcitabine, in treatment-naive metastatic pancreatic cancer patients.
- The 420-subject, global, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study will enroll patients with tumors that accumulate high levels of hyaluronan (HA), a chain of natural sugars called a glycosaminoglycan, that is builds up around cancer cells inhibiting the action of cancer-killing therapies.
- PEGPH20 is an investigational drug administered intravenously that temporarily degrades HA.
- Previously: Halozyme moves to Phase 3 with PEGPH20 in pancreatic cancer (April 8, 2015)
Fri, Feb. 26, 1:53 PM
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK -0.9%) initiated with Hold rating and 1400p price target (-0.7% downside risk) by Cantor Fitzgerald.
- Shire plc (SHPG -0.6%) initiated with Buy rating by Cantor Fitzgerald.
- Insulet (PODD +8.7%) initiated with Sell rating and $15 (53% downside risk) price target by Empire Asset Management.
- MacroGenics (MGNX +2.2%) initiated with Equal Weight rating and $20 (29% upside) price target by Morgan Stanley.
- Biogen (BIIB +0.8%) initiated with Buy rating and $345 (30% upside) price target by Citigroup.
- Boston Scientific (BSX -0.3%) initiated with Buy rating and $21 (22% upside) price target by SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
- Other initiations by Citigroup: Amgen (AMGN +1.1%) Neutral rating and $165 (11% upside) price target; Celgene (CELG +1.4%) Buy rating and $130 (25% upside) price target; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) Buy rating and $480 (22% upside) price target; Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN +0.1%) Neutral rating and $165 (18% upside) price target.
- IMS Health Holdings (IMS +0.2%) initiated with Outperform rating and $31 (19% upside) price target by Leerink Swann.
- Ocera Therapeutics (OCRX +5.7%) initiated with Buy rating and $10 (229% upside) price target by Brean Capital.
- Repligen (RGEN +3.8%) initiated with Buy rating and $36 (35% upside) price target by Craig-Hallum.
- Mesoblast (MESO -2.2%) initiated with Neutral rating and $5.50 (12% downside risk) price target by Chardan Capital.
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +1.2%) initiated with Buy rating and $80 (29% upside) price target by Leerink Swann.
- Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA -0.2%) initiated with Outperform rating with $68-71 (21% upside from midpoint) price target by Wells Fargo.
- Medivation (MDVN +9.8%) initiated with Buy rating and $46 (28% upside) price target by Bank of America.
- Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL -0.1%) initiated with Outperform rating and $35 (83% upside) price target by William Blair.
Mon, Feb. 22, 1:06 PM
- Seattle Genetics (SGEN +0.4%) initiates a Phase 1/2 clinical trial assessing its antibody-drug conjugate vadastuximab talirine (SGN-CD33A), in combination with Celgene's (CELG +0.8%) VIDAZA (azacitidine), in treatment-naive patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Phase 1 will identify the recommended dose of 33A when combined with azacitidine while Phase 2 will assess the efficacy of azacitidine with and without 33A.
- Vadastuximab talirine is comprised of a cysteine monoclonal antibody linked to a highly potent DNA binding agent. The antibody binds to CD33, a transmembrane receptor expressed on acute myeloid leukemia cells, of which MDS is a precursor.
- The company initiated another Phase 1/2 study of SGN-CD33A, as a preconditioning regimen prior to allogeneic stem cell transplantation, in November. Two other early-stage studies are ongoing.
- Previously: Seattle Genetics initiates early-stage study of antibody-drug conjugate in blood cancer (Nov. 23, 2015)
Fri, Feb. 12, 7:38 AM
- Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) initiated with Outperform rating and $120 (37% upside) price target by Oppenheimer.
- CareDx (NASDAQ:CDNA) initiated with Buy rating and $12 (137% upside) price target by Janney Capital.
- Shire plc (NASDAQ:SHPG) initiated with Neutral rating by Guggenheim.
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ:RARE) initiated with Buy rating and $104 (95% upside) price target by H.C. Wainwright.
- Depomed (NASDAQ:DEPO) initiated with Buy rating and $22 (38% upside) price target by UBS.
- ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ACAD) initiated with Buy rating and $40 (128% upside) price target by Bank of America.
- Leerink restarts coverage on eight stocks: four Outperforms: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN); Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN); Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) and Gilead Sciences (GILD); four Market Performs: Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG); Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB); Medivation (NASDAQ:MDVN) and Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN).
- TESARO (NASDAQ:TSRO) initiated with Buy rating by Lake Street.
- AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) initiated with Outperform rating by William Blair.
- Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN) upgraded to Buy with $38 (41% upside) price target by Cantor Fitzgerald.
- Shire plc (SHPG) upgraded to Outperform with price target of $240 (59% upside) by RBC.
- Amedisys (NASDAQ:AMED) upgraded to Outperform with $40 (15% upside) price target by Oppenheimer.
- Smith & Nephew (NYSE:SNN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. Price target lowered to 1,100p (4% upside) from 1,250p.
- Quidel (NASDAQ:QDEL) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Canaccord. Price target lowered to $18 (18% upside) from $22.
- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) downgraded Neutral from Overweight by JP Morgan. Price target lowered to $5 (201% upside) from $16.
Wed, Feb. 10, 6:47 AM
- Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) expands its clinical trial data management technology relationship with Medidata (NASDAQ:MDSO). A user of its Rave product (electronic data capture, management and reporting) since 2008, it will now transition to its Clinical Cloud which includes Designer (study and protocol design), Grants Manager (site budgeting and planning), CTMS (clinical trial management), SQM (site quality management) and Patient Cloud ePRO (electronic patient-reporting outcomes).
- Celgene will also incorporate Insights, which provides advanced metrics, visualizations and a powerful set of industry data and benchmarks.
- Financial terms are not disclosed.
Fri, Jan. 29, 8:44 AM
- The European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) adopts a positive opinion backing approval of Empliciti (elotuzumab), an immunostimulatory antibody, for the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM). The approval, if granted, will be as combination therapy with Celgene's (NASDAQ:CELG) REVLIMID (lenalidomide) and dexamethasone in MM patients who have received at least one prior therapy. A final decision by the European Commission usually takes ~60 days.
- The FDA cleared elotuzumab in November. It was co-developed by the two companies. BMY is solely responsible for commercialization.
- Previously: FDA clears Bristol-Myers and AbbVie's elotuzumab for type of blood cancer (Nov. 30, 2015)
Thu, Jan. 28, 7:54 AM
- Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) Q4 results ($M): Total Revenues: 2,563.3 (+22.9%); Net Product Sales: 2,539.2 (+23.6%).
- Net Income: 561.0 (-8.6%); EPS: 0.69 (-6.8%); Non-GAAP EPS: 1.18 (+16.8%).
- Key Product Sales: REVLIMID: 1,560.7 (+18.0%); ABRAXANE: 270.0 (+14.5%); POMALYST/IMNOVID: 293.8 (+45.4%); VIDAZA: 147.4 (-4.1%); OTEZLA: 183.0 (+284.5%).
- 2016 Guidance: Net Product Sales: $10.5B - 11.0B; REVLIMID Sales: $6.6B - 6.7B; EPS: $4.26 - 4.64; Non-GAAP EPS: $5.50 - 5.70.
- Q1 Guidance: EPS: $0.98 - 1.05; Non-GAAP EPS: $1.27 - 1.30.
- Shares are down 2% premarket on light volume.
Celgene Corp. is an integrated global biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through gene and protein regulation. Its targeting areas include intracellular signaling... More
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