CF Industries Holdings, Inc.NYSE
CF Industries: Overlooked OCI Merger Promises 60%+ Upside
Mohit Hajarnis • 13 Comments
Mohit Hajarnis • 13 Comments
CF Industries: Long-Term Value Creator, Near-Term Catalysts
Brian Hikisch, CFA • 11 Comments
Brian Hikisch, CFA • 11 Comments
Tue, Nov. 22, 2:46 PM
- CF Industries (CF -5.7%) is downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform with a $22 price target at RBC, which believes the two-day 10%-plus rally in CF shares is premature, as the recent strength in nitrogen prices results from seasonal and temporary factors likely will give way to weaker prices in H1 2017.
- RBC projects urea prices to fall from $250/metric ton to a price floor of ~$210 in 2017, and thinks CF stands to lose in an uncertain nitrogen products market because of its historical sensitivity to fundamental changes in the profitability of making the chemicals, adding that CF shares could be depressed if the nitrogen market remains in an oversupply situation until 2019.
Thu, Nov. 3, 2:11 PM
- North American farm suppliers are resuming fertilizer purchases, but difficult market conditions are expected to remain through next year, CF Industries (CF -6.1%) CEO Tony Will says after reporting better than expected Q3 earnings but disappointing revenues.
- Amid the global glut in fertilizer production, Will says buyers “took a wait-and-see approach” in Q3 as low prices and new supplies due next year caused them to postpone building new inventory ahead of the next planting season.
- The CEO says sales volumes and prices have since improved, and “buyers are finally moving off the sidelines and beginning to prepare for the application season," although weakness is expected to persist a while longer.
- CF said in today's earnings conference call that it expects planted U.S. corn acreage to drop to ~88M acres in 2017 from 94M acres this year.
Wed, Nov. 2, 5:24 PM
Tue, Nov. 1, 5:35 PM
- ACLS, ADSW, AEL, AIG, ALIM, ALL, ALNY, ALSK, AMRS, ARC, AREX, AVD, AWK, AWR, BBRG, BCOV, BEAT, BGC, BKCC, BKFS, BKH, BREW, BRKR, CABO, CAR, CBPO, CCRN, CDI, CF, CGI, CHEF, CLR, CODI, COHR, CPE, CSGS, CSLT, CWEI, CXW, DMRC, DPLO, DPM, DVA, ENSG, EPAY, EQC, EQIX, ERII, ESRT, EVTC, EXAR, EYES, FB, FIT, FMC, FMI, FNF, FOE, FRSH, FRT, FSLR, FTK, G, GDDY, GPOR, HABT, HASI, HBM, HIVE, HOLX, HOS, HR, HSTM, HUBS, IAC, IL, INN, INOV, IO, IOSP, IRG, ITRI, IXYS, JONE, JRVR, KEYW, KGC, KTOS, LGCY, LHCG, LNC, LOPE, LPI, LPLA, LQ, LSI, MANT, MASI, MCHX, MDU, MET, MGNX, MHLD, MRO, MTGE, MUSA, MWA, NBIX, NGHC, NLY, NPO, NSTG, NVDQ, OESX, OME, OSUR, OTTR, PAA, PACB, PAGP, PE, PEGA, PEI, PEIX, PGRE, PRA, PRAH, PRU, PTCT, QCOM, QGEN, QTWO, QUIK, REGI, REXR, RGLD, RICE, RIG, RLJ, RMP, ROG, RRD, RRGB, RRTS, RUBI, RXN, RYN, SBRA, SBY, SF, SRC, SWM, TCAP, TEP, TPC, TROX, TTEC, TTWO, TVIA, TWO, VNDA, VVC, WFM, WMC, WMGI, WPG, WPX, WSTL, WTI, WTS, WYNN, XEC, XOXO, XPO, ZNGA
Mon, Oct. 17, 5:36 PM
Mon, Oct. 17, 4:58 PM
- CF Industries' (NYSE:CF) credit rating is downgraded to junk status, cut to BB+ from BBB- with a negative outlook, by S&P, just days after Moody's also lowered its rating for the company.
- S&P expects ongoing depressed pricing in the nitrogen fertilizer sector will weaken CF's credit metrics, adding that it does not anticipate any meaningful pricing recovery in 2017.
- Global nitrogen capacity is seen continuing to climb, keeping pressure on prices into 2017, and a slump in grain futures has added to weakness in fertilizer prices.
Fri, Oct. 14, 4:58 PM
- CF Industries’ (NYSE:CF) credit rating is cut to Baa3 from Baa2 at Moody's, which also places the company on review for a further downgrade, citing deteriorating industry conditions that it expects to continue for longer than previously expected.
- Moody’s says it had anticipated that nitrogen fertilizer prices would decline as new capacity expansions at CF and other producers come on line in 2016 and 2017, but the low prices over the past several months have persisted far longer than anticipated.
- “The negative impact of weaker prices and volumes will likely cause CF’s credit metrics to well exceed...s prior estimates," the ratings agency says.
Tue, Oct. 11, 5:05 PM
Tue, Aug. 30, 10:21 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT +12.3%) and Agrium (AGU +6.6%) resume trading after a halt for volatility following a Bloomberg report that the companies are in advanced merger talks.
- A combination reportedly could be announced as soon as next week, although no final decisions have been made.
- Related stocks also are ticking higher: MOS +7.3%, CF +4.4%, IPI +13.7%, SQM +3.1%, UAN +3.3%, TNH +2.3%, ICL +3.9%.
Tue, Aug. 23, 11:27 AM
- CF Industries (CF +4.1%) shoots higher after UBS upgrades shares to Buy from Neutral with a $28 price target, saying the company will return to positive free cash flow in 2017 as capex declines to maintenance levels and nitrogen prices stabilize.
- UBS calls CF "a near pure-play on U.S. shale gas-based nitrogen fertilizers," whose margins are based on an advantage to high coal-based producers in China, much of which are reported to be operating below cash manufacturing costs; the firm says these high cost producers are closing capacity as new low-cost capacity ramps, and no new capacity is underway for startup after 2017.
- The firm also believes CF's dividend is secure because of 1.7x free cash flow coverage in 2017, while the market has priced in an apparent risk to the dividend.
Thu, Aug. 4, 2:02 PM
Thu, Aug. 4, 11:59 AM
- CF Industries (CF -13.4%) plans to run its expanded U.S. nitrogen fertilizer plants at full capacity and expects its domestic rivals to do the same, despite global oversupply that has hurt prices and profits, CEO Tony Will says.
- "North American producers are among the lowest cost globally, so anyone that's got assets that are producing in North America are going to run those plants full out," the CEO says, including CF's expanded ammonia and urea plants in Louisiana and Iowa, which will bring capacity to 18.9M metric tons by 2017.
- While the world has too much nitrogen capacity, higher-cost producers in China are curtailing production and North American buyers likely will import nearly a third of the continent's nitrogen requirements next year, Will says.
Thu, Aug. 4, 10:22 AM
- CF Industries (CF -13.3%) falls as much as 14% at the open for its biggest one-day decline in eight years, after Q2 earnings fell 87% Y/Y to come in far below expectations.
- CF says Q2 sales fell to $1.13B from $1.31B a year ago due to lower average selling prices across all segments, hurt by continued oversupply of nitrogen driven by global nitrogen capacity additions, but sales volume of more than 4.5M product tons achieved a quarterly record.
- CF says the demand outlook for the 2017 fertilizer season is positive, but abundant nitrogen supply will continue to pressure global pricing as new ammonia, urea and UAN production come on-line in H2 2016.
- CF also says it is suspending its share buyback program to preserve cash.
- Fertilizer peer Agrium (AGU -2.2%) also is lower following in-line Q2 earnings; the company issues downside guidance for FY 2016, now seeing EPS of $5.00-$5.30 vs. $5.38 analyst consensus estimate and down from prior guidance of $5.25-$6.25, due to an expected weak pricing environment for all nutrients.
- Also: POT -2.4%, MOS -3.8%, UAN -1.3%.
Thu, Aug. 4, 9:16 AM
- Gainers: CBMX +31%. OCUL +27%. ALIM +18%. GV +18%. SQ +17%. DRAM +16%. XPO +14%. PCRX +12%. FHCO +11%. EPE +10%. EXEL +8%. APHB +7%. SSYS +7%. GOGO +6%. EVOK +5%. TSEM +5%.
- Losers: SGMO -25%. TDOC -21%. INOV -17%. KOOL -13%. SEAS -10%. QUIK -9%. IMGN -9%. CF -8%. AMRN -8%. TRIP -8%. CRC -6%. USCR -6%.
Wed, Aug. 3, 5:14 PM
Tue, Aug. 2, 5:35 PM
- AEL, AGO, AGU, ALB, ALIM, ALL, ANDE, AREX, ATO, AWK, AWR, BBRG, BFAM, BGC, BIO, BKH, BNFT, BREW, BYD, CABO, CBPX, CCRN, CDI, CECO, CF, CHDN, CIM, CLR, CNAT, CODI, CPA, CSGS, CSII, CTL, CXW, DENN, DEPO, DK, DKL, DPM, ECR, EPE, EPR, EQIX, ERII, ETE, ETP, EVC, EVHC, EXAR, EXEL, EXTR, FIVN, FOXA, FRGI, FRSH, FSLR, G, GBDC, GDDY, GERN, GPOR, HABT, HASI, HI, HIL, HIVE, HLF, HOS, HR, HRTG, HUBS, IAG, IL, INOV, IO, IRG, ITRI, JACK, JCOM, JONE, JRVR, LGCY, LHCG, LNC, LPI, MASI, MC, MED, MET, MNR, MRO, MTDR, MUSA, MWA, NBIX, NKTR, NLY, NNBR, NP, NSIT, NSTG, OAS, OME, OSUR, PDM, PE, PEGA, PMT, PODD, PRA, PRU, PRXL, QLYS, QTWO, QUIK, REXR, RICE, RIG, RIGP, RLJ, RMP, RNG, RP, RST, RYN, SBY, SEMI, SGMO, SNCR, SQ, SQNM, SRC, SSS, STAA, STR, SUN, SWM, SXL, TCAP, TDOC, TEAR, TEP, TLLP, TRIP, TRNC, TROX, TS, TSLA, TSLX, TSO, TTEC, TWO, UHAL, VTAE, VVC, WCN, WGL, WMC, WPG, WPX, WU, XEC, XPO