Yesterday, 3:28 PM
- Biofuel names react favorably and refiners negatively to just-released EPA biofuel targets that come in above those proposed by the agency in May.
- Fuel suppliers will be required to mix 16.93B gallons of corn-based ethanol and other renewable fuels into gasoline this year and 18.11B gallons next year, according to the newest EPA targets.
- The final 2016 standard for advanced biofuel is nearly 1B gallons, or 35% higher than actual 2014 volumes.
- Biofuel names include: PEIX +17.7%, REGI +8.1%, AMRS +7%, GEVO +4.9%, SZYM +2.5%, GPRE +6.2%, REX +3.2%, ADM flat.
- Refiners are pulling back: VLO -0.9%, TSO -1.5%, HFC -2.6%, MPC -0.3%, PSX -0.9%, WNR -0.7%, CLMT -2.6%.
Mon, Nov. 16, 12:48 PM
- Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT +1.6%) is initiated with a Buy rating and $34 price target at DA Davidson, which says CLMT's prospects for cash distribution growth have improved and should be able to restart cash distribution growth after a three-year hiatus.
- The firm cites CLMT's transformation into a more diversified entity and strong position in the high margin specialty product business, as well as improving operating cash flow, enhanced credit metrics and moderate cash distribution growth which should allow the company to continue to differentiate itself from the broader MLP industry.
- CLMT also is resumed with an Outperform rating and $32 price target at RBC Capital, which sees the company at a turning point, with major project spending rolling off and increasing cash flow allowing a return to distribution growth that is not implied by the current 11% yield.
Wed, May 6, 9:13 AM
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners (NASDAQ:CLMT) +2% premarket after reporting Q1 earnings and revenues that missed estimates, but EBITDA climbed to a record $124.9M vs. $82.7M for the prior-year quarter.
- CLMT says distributable cash flow increased by more than 90% Y/Y to $94.1M, resulting in a distribution coverage ratio of 1.6x vs. 0.9x in the year-ago period.
- Says it will be well positioned to consider an increase in the quarterly cash distribution as growth projects begin to generate cash flow during the next nine months.
Wed, Mar. 18, 3:24 PM
- Crude oil prices, in the doldrums yet again after U.S. inventories hit record highs for a 10th week and supplies at the futures' Cushing delivery hub hit a peak, turned around to finish higher following the Fed policy statement.
- Nymex crude rose 2.5% to settle at $44.66/bbl, pushing off earlier lows of $42.25 and the lowest intraday level since March 2009; Brent is up 4.5% at nearly $56.
- The gain could prove only a momentary recovery, however, as "speculation is going to grow about operational capacity being hit in Cushing and what that portends for prices,” according to Again Capital John Kilduff, adding that he sees U.S.crude testing $40 soon.
- U.S. refiners are enjoying big gains as the Brent/WTI spread surpasses $11: TSO +5.1%, CLMT +4.7%, CVI +4.8%, HFC +4.6%, MUR +4.5%, WNR +4.4%, VLO +3.9%, RDS.A +3.9%, CVRR +3.7%, MPC +3.3%, PSX +3.2%, ALJ +3.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
Tue, Mar. 10, 9:19 AM
Dec. 23, 2014, 3:11 PM
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT +5.7%) is resumed with a Buy rating and $30.50 price target at MLV, which sees units poised for a 2015 rebound as maintenance capex declines and leverage should continue to moderate from a peak of 7x debt/EBITDA toward 4x.
- MLV also sees potential for a modest distribution increase in H2 2015 as LTM coverage should exceed 1x, and projects the specialty products segment - which accounts for ~75% of profit - will benefit from lower crude costs.
Sep. 10, 2014, 3:28 PM
- Energy stocks, especially refiners, are taking a beating following the latest EIA inventory report that said gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.4M barrels last week, helping send U.S. crude oil futures to 16-month lows (-1.2% to $91.61/bbl) and Brent crude to 17-month lows (-1.1% to $98.02).
- The report is bearish given the large increases in refined product inventories; "even though the crude drawdown was close to expectations, it seemed to disappoint," Again Capital's John Kilduff says.
- The EIA report followed the agency’s updated demand growth report issued yesterday and this morning’s release of OPEC’s report on the oil market; both see lower demand growth this year and next.
- Oil majors are mostly lower: XOM -0.6%, CVX -1.4%, COP -0.3%, but BP (+2.9%) and RDS.A (+1%) are higher.
- Refiners are hit hard: VLO -3.6%, PSX -1.5%, MPC -1.9%, HFC -2.5%, TSO -2.9%, WNR -4.1%, CVI -1.6%, ALJ -1.8%, PBF -3.5%, DK -1.8%, CLMT -1.8%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, XOP, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, IEO, CRUD, PXE, USL, PXI, PXJ, DBE, FENY, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, RJN, RYE, FXN, SZO, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Aug. 6, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT -3.1%) is sharply lower after reporting a large Q2 earnings miss due to longer than expected Shreveport downtime and weak fuel segment margins.
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $39.3M vs. $70M in the year-earlier quarter.
- Reported negative distributable cash flow of -$20.4M vs. -$2.5M in the prior-year period, with the Y/Y decrease driven primarily by the EBITDA decline and higher cash interest expense, partially offset by lower turnaround costs.
- In its earnings conference call, CLMT said pricing and demand remain strong, no major maintenance is planned at any facilities for the remainder of the year, and expects FY 2014 capex of $365M-$410M.
Jun. 26, 2014, 3:33 PM
- Most refiners recover part of yesterday's big drop, which some say was an overreaction to the U.S. government move to allow two oil companies to export ultra-light crude oil for the first time: TSO +2.8%, VLO +2%, PSX +1%, CVI +0.7%, CLMT +0.7%, WNR +0.6%, MPC +0.2%, ALJ -1%, PBF -0.6%, HFC -0.3%.
- The death of U.S. refiners is "greatly exaggerated," Cowen analysts say: "The spirit of the law - that hydrocarbon liquids produced in the U.S. must be processed in the U.S. - remains in place, and permits for condensate exports do not constitute precedent for crude oil... We continue to see potential for a meaningful feedstock advantage for U.S. refiners emerging later in 2014."
- Ned Davis Research, however, thinks the news is "potentially game changing for refiners," since it signals a change in the government’s position on oil exports more broadly and noting that it is the export ban, plus inadequate pipeline infrastructure, that has fed recent refiner outperformance.
May 8, 2014, 12:27 PM
- Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT +4.3%) powers higher as units are upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, a day after reporting Q1 earnings of $0.50/unit and revenues of $1.34B, both ahead of analyst expectations.
- CLMT's Q1 distribution coverage ratio was 0.94x, supported by an improving specialty product segment and acquisition contribution; sees total 2014 capex of $340M-$385M, with $270M-$300M allocated toward organic growth projects.
- In its upgrade, Credit Suisse notes CLMT is in the process of completing several large projects with the potential to double EBITDA by 2016, and CLMT is eyeing at least half a dozen potential acquisitions under evaluation.
Apr. 28, 2014, 12:45 PM
- Prices of U.S. crude grades such as West Texas Intermediate are starting to disconnect from Brent benchmark prices again, rebounding to ~$9/bbl two weeks after hitting a low for the year of less than $3.70.
- Stocks at the Cushing, Okla., hub have dropped by 16M barrels since late January but have jumped by 43M on the Gulf coast; overall, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories now stand at their highest level on record, according to Barclays.
- With the oil stuck there with nowhere to go, Gulf coast refiners can name their price - great for the likes of Valero Energy (VLO +1.9%), because they can then refine that oil into products such as gasoline that are allowable for export.
- Also today: PSX +0.9%, MPC +1.8%, HFC +0.7%, TSO +1.3%, CVI +0.9%, WNR +0.2%, PBF +1.1%, CLMT +2.3%, ALJ -1.2%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DTO, DBO, BNO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DNO, DWTI, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Feb. 27, 2014, 3:46 PM
- Oil refiners are getting hit today as Brent crude falls to its lowest price in more than a week on rising tensions in Ukraine, shrinking the premium to West Texas crude to the narrowest level since October.
- Given Ukraine’s location, the country's situation obviously will impact Brent more than WTI; meanwhile, WTI’s losses are limited after U.S. government data yesterday showed crude supplies at Cushing, Okla., declining to a four-month low.
- Phillips 66 (PSX -2.8%) has dropped 3.5% YTD, while Delek US (DK -5.3%) has plunged 17%, Valero (VLO -4.3%) has slipped 3.8%, Holly Frontier (HFC -3.1%) has fallen 8.2% and Marathon Petroleum (MPC -4.4%) is off 8.5% in 2014.
- Other decliners today: TSO -1.5%, ALJ -5.4%, WNR -4.2%, CVI -3.4%, CLMT -0.7%.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, DBO, DTO, BNO, CRUD, USL, DNO, UWTI, SZO, DWTI, OLO, OLEM, TWTI
Dec. 20, 2013, 3:18 PM
- Shrinking crude spreads - WTI has gained 7.2% while Brent has risen just 1.7% so far in December - likely will hold back refiners during the first six months of 2014, Cowen's Sam Margolin says.
- Extremely favorable refining conditions from last month are deteriorating amid higher utilization and continued reduction in crude imports, limiting supply and causing U.S. prices to melt higher, the firm explains, adding that investors need to "manage near-term expectations" while "remain(ing) constructive on the refining story for 2014."
- Margolin keeps Outperform ratings for Western Refining (WNR +4%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +2.6%), Tesoro (TSO +0.4%), Valero (VLO +1.4%) and PBF Energy (PBF +1.7%); HollyFrontier (HFC +2.4%), Delek (DK +2.3%), Northern Tier (NTI +0.6%), Alon USA (ALJ +1.7%) and Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT +3.8%).
Dec. 11, 2013, 12:52 PM
- Tesoro (TSO -1.8%) apparently didn't offer enough good news at yesterday's analyst day, as shares tumble despite the general perception from the meeting as "incrementally positive."
- The key messages in the meeting surrounded progress of the synergy capture from the Carson acquisition, continued margin improvement through feedstock and product optimization and driving additional logistics growth.
- TSO sees rail unloading capacity along the U.S. west coast for North Dakota crude oil growing to nearly 1M bbl/day through 2015; TSO's $100M rail-to-barge project in Washington is the largest of the offloading projects announced so far.
- Imperial Capital raises its TSO price target TSO to $63 from $57, and Howard Weil lifts its target to $66 from $62.
- Other refiners are lower too: VLO -1.3%, PSX -0.7%, MPC -1.8%, WNR -2.6%, HFC -1.6%, ALJ -1%, NTI -0.2%, DK -1.9%, CLMT -2.7%.
Nov. 22, 2013, 2:46 PM
- Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT +1.8%) units are moving after the MLP last night priced an upsized, $350M private placement of 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2022.
- The deal, which was increased 55% from initial plans for a $225M offering, is expected to close Nov. 26.
- CLMT plans to use net proceeds for general partnership purposes, including working capital and possible acquisitions as well as buying back ~$100M of its 9.375% senior unsecured notes maturing in 2019 through privately negotiated transactions.
Nov. 14, 2013, 2:36 PM
- Refiners such as Marathon Petroleum (MPC +4.9%) and Valero (VLO +4%) are surging today, and Barron's Ben Levisohn says it’s all about the oil spread.
- While Brent crude has stayed steady for the last three months, trading at ~$109/bbl, WTI has dropped 12% to ~$94; the more expensive Brent is relative to WTI, the better it is for U.S. refiners.
- VLO, for example, has gained 17% during the past three months, and much of its price has followed the Brent-WTI spread.
- Also: PSX +2.1%, TSO +2.7%, HFC +3.2%, WNR +4.3%, ALJ +5.2%, ALDW +1.3%, CLMT +2.6%, CVI +1.3%.
Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP is a producer of hydrocarbon products in North America. It owns specialty and fuel products facilities located in northwest Louisiana, northwest Wisconsin, northern Montana, Texas, New Jersey, and other areas.
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