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Nov. 18, 2015, 6:39 PM
- Small and midsize oil and gas producers are expected to reduce production by ~1% Y/Y in Q4 while cutting capital spending 41% below 2014 levels, according to a new report from RBN Energy.
- "It does not appear that today’s punishingly low crude and gas prices [have] yet to materially discourage oil and gas production in the major shale plays," the report says.
- Among the companies in RBN's small and midsize group are four that cut capital investment estimates during Q3 - Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO), Energen (NYSE:EGN), Sanchez Energy (NYSE:SN) and Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC) - one that raised its capital program - SM Energy (NYSE:SM) - as well as one - Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) - that raised its production guidance.
- The report also evaluates large oil-weighted E&Ps, diversified U.S. gas-weighted E&Ps and Appalachian gas-weighted E&Ps.
Nov. 14, 2015, 8:25 AM
- The number of oil wells in North Dakota that have been drilled but not fracked surpassed 1,000 for the first time in September, as producers wait for prices to recover before turning them on.
- As a result, more than 8% of oil wells in North Dakota now are sitting idle, harming the industry's ability to grow production; daily output in the state fell 2% in September to ~1.16M bbl/day.
- The backlog is "sending a definite signal to the market that oil and gas operators are not willing to do a lot of drilling or hydraulic fracturing or production at these low prices," says Lynn Helms, director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, who figures the backlog is not likely to be worked off until next year at least, and only if oil prices rise.
- Top North Dakota producers include CLR, HES, EOG, WLL, XOM, OAS, NOG, EOX, MRO
Nov. 6, 2015, 3:36 PM
- Continental Resources (CLR +2.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $45 price target, up from $32, at Wunderlich, which believes CLR's major plays provide ample opportunity in either a positive or negative commodity price environment and that cost reduction measures have established a cash flow neutral position heading into 2016.
- Citing CLR's "solid" Q3 results, another production guidance increase and cost reductions, the firm says it has visibility into next year where CLR can be cash flow neutral while continuing to develop its exciting asset positions, allowing the company to get through the downturn and emerge in a stronger position.
Nov. 4, 2015, 7:15 PM
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) +1.8% AH despite reporting a Q3 loss and a 46% Y/Y revenue decline, as it raises its production forecast in a bet that cost cuts and technological advancements will help it extract more oil at a cheaper price.
- CLR says it now expects to produce 24%-26% more oil than last year's 174K boe/day, a jump from previous guidance for a boost of 16%-20%.
- CLR says Q3 production averaged ~228K boe/day, up 1% Q/Q and 25% higher than the year-ago quarter, but expects to exit year-end 2015 with production of ~210K boe/day.
- Says it had cut its drilling and completion costs for new wells by 25% in the past 11 months.
- CLR also says it increased its commitments on a credit line to $2.75B even though it had used only $880M so far.
Nov. 4, 2015, 4:47 PM
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR): Q3 EPS of -$0.12 in-line.
- Revenue of $628.5M (-45.8% Y/Y) misses by $9.45M.
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 22, 2015, 6:25 PM
- North Dakota regulators approve a plan to give oil producers an extra year to bring a new well online, Reuters reports, in an attempt to give the energy industry breathing room during the oil price downturn.
- Companies will now have up to two years to frack drilled but uncompleted wells under changes approved by the North Dakota Industrial Commission, which means the oil industry will not be forced to spend billions of dollars to frack an estimated 1,000 DUCs, most of which will hit their previous one-year deadlines in December.
- Top Bakken shale producers include CLR, HES, EOG, WLL, XOM, OAS, NOG, EOX, MRO
Oct. 9, 2015, 2:26 PM
- The House passes legislation that would lift the 40-year-old ban on oil exports, giving the oil industry one of its top congressional priorities.
- But the real test is in the narrowly divided Senate, where stand-alone export legislation is far less likely to advance; in the 261-159 House vote, only 26 Democrats joined 235 Republicans to support the measure, held down by the Obama administration's opposition.
- More than a dozen oil companies - including Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Encana (NYSE:ECA), Hess (NYSE:HES), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) and Apache (NYSE:APA) - have been pressing the issue with Congress, arguing that allowing oil exports would eliminate market distortions, create jobs and stimulate more U.S. petroleum production; it also would help companies fetch a higher price on the global oil market.
- "An extra dollar or two for the price of our product today is very important because our margins are incredibly squeezed,” says ECA's Doug Suttles.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, XLE, UCO, UWTI, VDE, ERX, OIH, SCO, XOP, BNO, DBO, DWTI, ERY, DIG, DTO, DUG, BGR, USL, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, DNO, FENY, PXE, PXJ, FIF, OLO, SZO, NDP, RYE, FXN, OLEM, DDG
Sep. 24, 2015, 7:15 PM
- North Dakota regulators approve an industry-backed proposal to delay further cuts to associated gas flaring by 10 months while also easing more long-range flaring reduction targets.
- Gov. Dalrymple and the two other members of the North Dakota Industrial Commission voted to change the date when companies must capture 85% of natural gas produced from their wells to Nov. 1, 2016.
- The regulators agreed with industry arguments that the delays and revisions were needed because of the lack of new gas capture and pipeline infrastructure, which have been delayed for a variety of reasons, including low oil and gas prices, right-of-way disputes and pad size limitations.
- Top North Dakota producers include CLR, HES, EOG, WLL, XOM, OAS, NOG, EOX, MRO
Sep. 15, 2015, 12:56 PM
- House Republicans plan to vote later this month on a bill to lift the 40-year-old U.S. ban on crude oil exports, a move that would please oil companies lobbying Congress but potentially rattle global oil markets already facing volatility and lower prices.
- More than a dozen oil companies including Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), have pushed Congress to lift the ban, arguing that unrestrained U.S. oil exports would eliminate market distortions, streamline U.S. production and boost the economy.
- Some refiners focused on the domestic market such as Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), Valero (NYSE:VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) and consumer interest groups oppose the move, saying it would raise gasoline prices.
- Energy stocks are mostly higher today as crude oil rebounds from recent declines.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Sep. 8, 2015, 5:25 PM
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) says it plans to cut at least 11% from its 2015 capital spending budget to $2.35B-$2.4B vs. its previous forecast to spend $2.7B, due to the drop in crude oil prices.
- CLR says it will reduce its operated rig count in the Bakken from 10 to eight rigs by the end of the month, and plans to defer well completion activity except for where it has contractual considerations or it accomplishes specific strategic objectives.
- CLR says its 2015 production guidance remains unchanged, seeing 19%-23% growth for the year vs. 2014, but it now expects to exit the year with production of 200K-215K boe/day from a previously outlook for 190K-215K.
Aug. 24, 2015, 3:27 PM
- Chevron (CVX -5%) is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a $100 price target at BofA Merrill, which expects CVX’s net debt to stabilize with major projects beginning to contribute in 2017 and a drop in spending to maintenance levels.
- The firm says it has been concerned throughout the past year that CVX's cash burn would dilute equity value through peak spending at the same time that oil prices collapsed, but it no longer sees a risk, as CVX is discounting below strip prices but with a dividend.
- CVX requires sustained spending of $15B-$16B to hold production flat for an extended period,” BofA's Doug Leggate explains, adding that at $45-$50 oil, cash flow by 2017 would be closer to $29B so that the dividend is "more than covered" by cash flow in an ex-growth environment.
- ConocoPhillips (COP -6.2%) is the firm's top pick among the big oils after the stock has been hit hard, which the analyst thinks reflected unwarranted concerns regarding COP's dividend; at current strip prices, Leggate believes COP's upside is second only to Buy-rated Exxon Mobil (XOM -5.3%).
- However, the firm downgrades HollyFrontier (HFC -3.5%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC -7.2%) and Valero (VLO -4.7%) to Underperform and cuts Continental Resources (CLR -10.1%), Marathon Oil (MRO -8.4%), Noble Energy (NBL -5.4%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL -8%) to Neutral.
Aug. 14, 2015, 12:47 PM
- The Obama administration will allow limited sales of crude oil to Mexico for the first time, Reuters reports, citing a senior administration official who says the U.S. Commerce Department is "acting favorably on a number of applications" to export U.S. crude in exchange for imported Mexican oil.
- The shipments, likely to be lighter, high-quality shale oil, would help Mexico's aging refineries produce more premium fuels, while U.S. refiners would continue to get Mexican heavy oil, a better match for them than the light oil coming from Texas and North Dakota.
- Although limited in scope, the move toward freeing up trade will please U.S. oil producers such as Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), which say the restrictions force them to sell oil at below global market rates, and may add momentum to efforts mostly to repeal what advocates see as a relic of the 1970s.
- Among relevant oil stocks: XOM, CVX, BP, RDS.A, RDS.B, OAS, NOG, CLR, WLL, EOX, SM, SFY, PVA, GST, SN, CRK, BBG, CWEI
- Relevant refining stocks: VLO, HFC, MPC, TSO, WNR, ALJ, PSX, PBF, DK, NTI, ALDW
- ETFs: XLE, XOP, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, NDP
Aug. 5, 2015, 4:19 PM
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR): Q2 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.09.
- Revenue of $796.4M (-10.1% Y/Y) beats by $82.57M.
Aug. 4, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 24, 2015, 12:54 PM
- No new well completion reports have been filed in North Dakota since July 10, the longest gap this year, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources.
- The slump in reported completions is unusual and coincides with the fall in oil prices which has seen wellhead prices for Bakken crude drop below $50/bbl; Reuters' John Kemp says if the slump continues for much longer, it could be a sign that shale producers are deferring putting more wells into production to save cash and wait for better prices.
- The number of wells reported completed so far in July is running far below the previous level and well below the number the DMR estimates is needed to hold production steady, Kemp writes.
- Top Bakken producers include CLR, HES, EOG, WLL, XOM, OAS, NOG, EOX, MRO
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