Continental Resources: Cash Flow-Positive In 2016 At $60 Oil
Richard Zeits • 11 Comments
Richard Zeits • 11 Comments
Continental Resources: What Oil Price Is Discounted In The Current Stock Price?
Richard Zeits • 27 Comments
Richard Zeits • 27 Comments
Can Continental Grow At 25% With Oil At $65?
Richard Zeits • 38 Comments
Richard Zeits • 38 Comments
Tue, May 3, 5:35 PM
- AGO, ALDW, ALIM, ALJ, ALL, ANDE, ARCW, AREX, ARRS, ATO, AUY, AWK, AWR, BNFT, BREW, BRKR, CB, CBPO, CCRN, CDI, CECO, CENT, CF, CLR, CODI, CONE, CPE, CPSI, CSII, CSOD, CTL, CTLT, CUZ, CW, CWST, CXO, CXW, DAC, DOX, DPM, DVA, ECR, EPM, EQC, EQIX, ES, ETE, ETP, EXEL, FEIC, FICO, FIT, FLT, FLTX, FNV, FOXA, FRPT, FRSH, FRT, GDDY, GDOT, GHDX, GIL, GPOR, GTY, HABT, HASI, HDP, HIL, HIVE, HOS, HR, HRTG, HUBS, IAC, INFI, IO, IRG, JONE, KHC, KND, KONA, KTOS, KW, LGCY, LHCG, LNC, LNT, LPI, LPSN, LXU, MAA, MASI, MATX, MCHP, MCK, MED, MET, MHLD, MNR, MRO, MTRX, MTW, MUR, NCMI, NLY, NVAX, OHI, OME, ORA, OREX, OSUR, PAA, PAGP, PDLI, PE, PEIX, PHH, PNNT, PRI, PRU, QRVO, QUIK, RICE, RIG, RLJ, RLYP, RP, RRTS, RST, RYN, SBY, SKUL, SQNM, SRC, SUN, SWM, SXL, SZYM, TASR, TCAP, TEAR, THG, TLLP, TPC, TPUB, TRIP, TROX, TSLA, TSLX, TSO, TWO, VECO, VNDA, VRNS, WBMD, WFM, WFT, WGL, WMB, WMGI, WPG, WPX, WTI, WTS, WTW, XEC, XOXO, YUME, ZNGA
Sun, May 1, 1:08 PM
- A new study finds that fracking of U.S. shale fields is causing a global surge in ethane emissions. Ethane is known to contribute to global warming and dangerous air pollution.
- Global ethane levels had been falling since the 1980s, but in 2010 a sensor in Europe picked up a surprise increase. U.S. shale fracking was thought to be the culprit. More recently, a single field in the North Dakota and Montana Bakken Formation has been found to be emitting 2% of the worldwide total.
- "Two percent might not sound like a lot, but the emissions we observed in this single region are 10 to 100 times larger than reported in inventories. They directly impact air quality across North America. And they're sufficient to explain much of the global shift in ethane concentrations," said Eric Kort, the first author of the new study published in Geophysical Research Letters.
- Ethane emissions from other U.S. fields, especially the Texas Eagle Ford, likely contributed as well, the research team says. The findings illustrate the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising ethane levels.
- Baaken stocks include: CLR, ERF, EOG, HK, HES, MRO, OAS, QEP, SM, STO, TPLM, WLL
- Eagle Ford stocks include: APC, APA, COG, CRZO, CHK, COP, ECA, XOM, MUR, PXD
- See the full study here »
Tue, Apr. 19, 7:17 PM
- The risk-reward balance for select oil and gas stocks that emphasize balance sheet quality resilient 2016 production profiles looks "increasingly compelling" for long-term investors, Morgan Stanley analysts say.
- Stanley maintains a "balanced" view for 2016 in a second consecutive trough year, but the longer-term outlook grows more compelling; in each of the firm's recovery scenarios, the upside to net asset value reflects the commodity price required to deliver the call on U.S. production in 2019, and is ~166%, 107%, and 40% in its respective bull, base and bear cases.
- The firm's Overweight-rated E&P stocks are Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD).
- Now read Devon Energy +5% following Morgan Stanley upgrade
Fri, Apr. 15, 6:30 PM
- North Dakota crude oil production fell for the third straight month in February to hit its lowest level in 18 months, while the state's rig count sunk to its lowest since October 2005, according to the latest data from the state's Department of Mineral Resources.
- The U.S.’s second largest oil producing state pumped 1.118M bbl/day in February, down very slightly from January's 1.122M but January output fell 2.6% from December, which fell 2.5% from November.
- The number of rigs drilling for oil in North Dakota is now at 29, down from 52 in January and 40 in February; the all-time high was 218 in May 2012.
- However, natural gas production in the state rose 2.9% in February to 1.69B cf/day, a new all-time high.
- Bakken shale exposure includes: CLR, HES, WLL, STO, OAS, MRO, EOG, XOM, NOG, CHK, DNR, SM, NFX, OXY, MUR, COP, SSN, CXO, EOX
- Now read U.S. oil rig count falls by three in latest Baker Hughes tally
Fri, Apr. 15, 12:29 PM
- J.P. Morgan analysts revises ratings on several large-cap E&P companies following the six-week 71% rally of E&P equities in its coverage
- The firm upgrades Anadarko Petroleum (APC +0.3%) to Overweight from Neutral based on an attractive relative valuation, a resilient production profile and improved balance sheet, and upgrades Antero Resources (AR +0.9%) to Neutral from Underweight on strong PDP reserve growth and expectations of continued strong operating momentum through 2017.
- Meanwhile, JPM downgrades Southwestern Energy (SWN -0.4%) to Underweight from Neutral and EP Energy (EPE +0.4%) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation metrics.
- The firm also thinks further successful delineation of the emerging STACK play in Oklahoma could support a relative re-rating in Continental Resources (CLR -0.1%) and Devon Energy (DVN -0.3%) shares, as drilling returns in the oil window are among the highest in U.S.
- JPM's top natural gas pick remains EQT Corp. (EQT -0.4%) given differentiated growth, a strong balance sheet, noteworthy catalysts and attractive valuation.
- Now read Why Anadarko Petroleum is the best bet in a challenging oil market
Wed, Apr. 13, 2:56 PM
- Deutsche Bank upgrades Continental Resources (CLR -1.1%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold, citing a favorable outlook for the Anadarko Basin and the company's lower cost structure, while downgrading Energen (EGN -1.5%) to Hold from Buy.
- With both stocks performing strongly off February lows, the firm says its move into CLR from EGN provides additional exposure to the Anadarko Basin with upcoming acreage delineation catalysts and a producer that can better capture an improving crude outlook with a lower cost structure, unhedged profile and 100-plus core Bakken DUC count.
- Now read Continental Resources is overbought
Thu, Apr. 7, 2:26 PM
- Goldman Sachs says crude oil at $35/bbl is the Goldilocks ideal - priced neither too high nor too low but just right - to make shares of U.S. explorers worth buying, suggesting investors and use volatility to add to positions of shale productivity winners.
- The $30-$35 range should keep behavior of U.S. oil producers unchanged and accommodate $55-$60 oil in 2017, Goldman says, providing opportunity for equities, while a near-term rally to $45-$50 oil would reduce 2017 upside but still be favorable for equities, at least temporarily.
- Goldman says it favors "secular productivity winners" EOG Resources (EOG -0.6%), Diamondback Energy (FANG +1.3%) and PDC Energy (PDCE -4.4%), as well as stocks in “the next rung down,” including Hess (HES -3.5%), Cenovus Energy (CVE -1.8%), Anadarko Petroleum (APC -1.1%), Encana (ECA -4%), Continental Resources (CLR -2.1%) and Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.6%).
- Now read Oil, interest rates and game theory: Why prices have further to fall
Wed, Apr. 6, 2:46 PM
- Stifel analysts downgrade Anadarko Petroleum (APC +2.9%), Continental Resources (CLR +2.5%), EOG Resources (EOG +0.2%), Matador Resources (MTDR +4.1%) and SM Energy (SM +5.1%) to Hold from Buy, saying the stocks are too risky ahead of OPEC's April 17 meeting.
- The firm says mixed signals from OPEC ministers, ramping volumes from Iran, and potential backlash from Saudi Arabia heightens oil price risk, causing it to become more defensive with its energy recommendations.
- Stifel believes the five stocks are either underhedged on their production or outspending current 2016 cash flow.
- Now read Merrill Lynch on Oil: The bottom is in
Wed, Mar. 30, 3:30 PM
- Analysts at Seaport Global upgrade seven oil and gas producers, advocating for increased exposure to select names they say should protect investors in the event of a move back toward $50/bbl, while downgrading 11 others.
- Seaport upgrades seven companies to Buy: Continental Resources (CLR +3.4%), Callon Petroleum (CPE +1.4%), Marathon Oil (MRO +1.9%), Oasis Petroleum (OAS +2.8%), Rice Energy (RICE +1.7%), Petroquest Energy (PQ +9.1%) and Lonestar Resources (OTCQX:LNREF +6.6%).
- Downgraded to Sell are Whiting Petroleum (WLL +4.1%), Southwestern Energy (SWN -2.5%), WPX Energy (WPX +0.6%), Laredo Petroleum (LPI -1.1%), Jones Energy (JONE +0.9%), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG +1%), Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO +1.6%), Memorial Resource (MRD +2.5%), Matador Resources (MTDR -0.3%), Sanchez Energy (SN +1.6%) and PDC Energy (PDCE -0.9%).
- The firm also favors gaining leverage to the Oklahoma STACK play, thus CLR and Newfield Exploration (NFX +1.9%) have "taken the pole position away" from Permian producers Parsley Energy (PE +1.3%) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +1%).
Mon, Mar. 28, 6:55 PM
- The U.S. Geological Survey releases maps that for the first time show potential seismic dangers from man-made as well as naturally-occurring earthquakes.
- The states most as risk of earthquakes from oil and gas activity - Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and Arkansas, in order - are largely concentrated in regions where the energy industry disposes of millions of gallons of wastewater that is produced during the drilling and pumping process.
- In 2015, the USGS recorded 2,500 quakes with a magnitude of 2.5 or higher in Oklahoma, up from just three in 2005; the state's leading oil and gas producers include CLR, CHK, DVN, SD and MRO.
Wed, Feb. 24, 7:29 PM
- Whiting Petroleum (NYSE:WLL) +7.4% AH despite missing estimates for Q4 earnings and revenues, as investors cheer the company's planned 80% reduction in 2016 capex to ~$500M, including a halt of all frack and completing wells as of April 1.
- WLL's capex cut is one of the largest so far this year and will have a major impact in North Dakota, where the company is the largest producer; rival producers Hess (NYSE:HES) and Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) also cut their spending plans but not as drastically as WLL.
- WLL says most of its spending will go to mothball drilling and fracking operations in H1 at its core Bakken and Niobrara areas; after June, it plans to spend only $160M, mostly on maintenance.
- WLL says Q4 production rose ~18% Y/Y to 155,210 boe/day, and expects to pump 128K-138K boe/day for FY 2016.
Wed, Feb. 24, 5:49 PM
- Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) +3.9% AH after reporting a slightly larger than expected Q4 loss and confirming a 66% cut in planned 2016 capital spending with potential additional cuts if needed.
- CLR says it has stopped fracking operations in the Bakken shale and has no stimulation crews deployed there; the company already had planned to defer most completions in the North Dakota play in 2016.
- CLR says it has four operated drilling rigs in the Bakken, with plans to maintain that level through the year; for now, it is more optimistic about the Oklahoma STACK play, where it plans to average 4-5 operated drilling rigs in 2016, and expects an average estimated ultimate recovery of 1.7M boe/well.
- For Q4, CLR says overall net production totaled 20.7M boe, or 224.9K boe/day, up 16% Y/Y and above company guidance; affirms its projections for production to reach 200K bbl/day in FY 2016, down from 221.7K in FY 2015.
- Q4 revenues fell to $575.5M from $1.3B in the year-ago quarter, with oil and gas sales falling 39%, while operating costs fell 30% Y/Y to $718.3M.
- Q4 average realized crude sales prices, excluding hedging, fell to $34.23/bbl from $61.53/bbl a year earlier.
Wed, Feb. 24, 4:20 PM
Tue, Feb. 23, 5:35 PM
- AAOI, ALDW, ALJ, AMSG, ANIK, AR, AWK, AWR, AXTI, BLDP, BWXT, CEMP, CHDN, CLGX, CLI, CLR, CRM, CSGP, CW, CWT, CXO, DAVE, DMRC, DOOR, DPM, DTLK, DYN, ECPG, EPR, EQY, ESV, ETE, ETP, FARO, FLTX, FOE, FRGI, FUEL, GDOT, GMED, GXP, HPQ, HTH, IL, IMAX, INN, KEYW, LB, LGCY, LQ, MMLP, MTDR, NFX, NLY, NSPH, NTES, OAS, PE, PHH, QEP, RATE, RBCN, RGR, RICE, RIG, RIGP, RLJ, RLYP, RSPP, SBY, SN, SPTN, SRC, SUN, SXL, TAL, TCAP, TILE, TNDM, TS, TSLX, TUMI, TXTR, VIPS, WES, WGP, WLL, WPX, WR, WSR, XPO, ZPIN
Sat, Feb. 20, 8:25 AM
- Moody’s says it has downgraded a total of 28 energy companies since December, including another eight yesterday.
- Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), Hess (NYSE:HES), Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR), Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN) and Western Gas Partners (NYSE:WES) were cut to junk levels.
- National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) and Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL) were lowered to Baa3, one notch above junk.
- Outlooks for Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC) and EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) were confirmed above junk without downgrades, while EQT Midstream (NYSE:EQM) was affirmed in junk territory but not downgraded.
- Moody's says weakness in prices for crude oil and natural gas has caused a fundamental change in the energy industry, whose ability to generate cash flow has fallen substantially - a condition Moody's believes will persist for "several years," so it is in the process of recalibrating the ratings of many energy companies to reflect the industry shift.
- More downgrades are sure to be on the way following last month's move by the ratings agency in placing the credit ratings of 120 energy companies and 55 mining companies from around the world on review for possible downgrade.
Wed, Feb. 17, 5:47 PM
- North Dakota's crude oil production fell in December for the first time in three months, down 2.5% to 1,152,280 bbl/day, as oil producers begin to acknowledging the low-price reality rolling over the entire energy industry.
- Only 41 drilling rigs are operating in the state as of Wednesday, the lowest level since July 2009, and North Dakota producers have cut back requests to drill new wells, with only 78 permitted in January compared to 125 in November.
- Bakken shale exposure includes: CLR, HES, WLL, STO, OAS, MRO, EOG, XOM, NOG, CHK, DNR, SM, NFX, OXY, MUR, OXY, COP, SSN, CXO, EOX
Continental Resources, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are focused on the Red River Units, Anadarko Woodford and Bakken field plays. The company was founded by Harold G. Hamm in 1967 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK.
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration
Country: United States
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