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Wed, Feb. 3, 10:25 AM
- This just in: The financial sector is having a worse go it this year than energy, with the XLF lower by 13.6% YTD vs. the XLE's 9% decline.
- Leading a big reversal from this morning higher open is the XLF's 2% decline. The S&P 500 is now off 1%, and the XLE "just" 0.85%.
- Among the issues for the financials are two items: 1) Hopes for a sustained rate hike cycle have been dashed, with the 10-year yield tumbling all the way to 1.82% currently from about 2.30% when the Fed hiked in mid-December. Fed speakers are all-of-a-sudden sounding very dovish (Dudley is the latest), and short-term rate futures are now pricing in just a 50% chance of even one Fed rate increase this year; 2) For lenders specifically, there's worry over their exposure to the crashing energy sector. No doubt better capitalized today than 10 years ago, losses are still losses even if they don't threaten the viability of the bank.
- JPMorgan (JPM -2.6%), Wells Fargo (WFC -3.6%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.5%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC -2%), Comerica (CMA -2.7%), Schwab (SCHW -3.8%), MetLife (MET -2.5%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
Thu, Jan. 28, 9:40 AM
- Nice post-earnings bounces continue for Comerica (CMA +3.3%) and Prosperity Bancshares (PB +4.5%) as oil soars above $34 per barrel on chatter of production cuts.
- Also at work, BMO Capital pulls its Underperform rating on Comerica, and Evercore pulls its Sell rating on Prosperity. Alongside that is DA Davidson upgrading Prosperity to Buy from Neutral.
- Previously: Comerica beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Jan. 19)
- Previously: Prosperity Bancshares launches buyback (Jan. 27)
- Previously: Prosperity Bancshares beats by $0.01, misses on revenue (Jan. 27)
- Other energy-exposed lenders: Cullen/Front (CFR +3.9%), Texas Capital (TCBI +2.5%), Independent Bank Group (IBTX +11.6%), Zions Bancorp (ZION +2.8%)
Wed, Jan. 27, 10:33 AM
- Comerica's Texas Economic Activity Index fell 60 basis points in November to 94.1. This stands against an index average of 105.2 for all of 2014. The gauge has now fallen for 12 of the last 13 months.
- The index is comprised of eight variables: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy, continue jobless claims, housing starts, sales taxes, home prices, and Baker Hughes rig count.
- Four of the eight fell during November, but payrolls were higher, though the growth has "stepped down" from 2013 and 2014.
- Banks of interest: Comerica (CMA +0.9%), Prosperity (PB +4.1%), Cullen/Frost (CFR -1.3%), Texas Capital (TCBI +3.2%), Independent Bank Group (IBTX -1.6%).
Tue, Jan. 26, 2:54 PM
Tue, Jan. 19, 6:45 AM
Mon, Jan. 18, 5:30 PM
Mon, Jan. 11, 11:58 AM
- Associated Banc-Corp (ASB +0.5%) after the close on Friday announced a Q4 increase of $13M in the loan loss allowance for its energy portfolio. The move brings the loss ratio up to 5.6% at year-end vs. 3.8% a quarter earlier, and will cut EPS by about $0.03. Full results are due on Jan. 21.
- The warning is notable, says Evercore ISI's Stephen Moss, in that the bank's $752M energy portfolio (4% of total loans) consists entirely of 1st-lien E&P credits on oil and gas reserves. Previously, Evercore had seen the greatest near-term risk to earnings as coming from oilfield services loans, but the ASB move suggests rapidly growing stresses for E&P borrowers.
- Lenders on watch include: Cullen/Frost (CFR -0.6%), where energy makes up 16% of total loans, Zions (ZION -0.8%) (8%), Comerica (CMA -0.1%) (7%), Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI +0.1%) (7%), Independent Bank Group (IBTX +0.9%) (7%), and Prosperity Bancshares (PB -0.9%) (4%). Cullen/Frost and Prosperity are reiterated at Sell.
Thu, Jan. 7, 10:12 AM
- Punished alongside the crash in energy prices, Dallas-based Comerica (CMA -0.7%) finds a dip-buyer in Baird, which upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. The $46 price target is about 15% higher than current levels. The regional bank sector is lower by 2% today.
- CMA peaked in 2015 in late June, and is down by nearly 25% since.
Dec. 17, 2015, 9:54 AM
- The Dallas-based lender has been punished on concerns about its exposure to energy, particularly in December as things got a touch panicky,
- The stock's bounced about 5% over the past couple of sessions as relative calm has been restored (even as energy prices plumb new lows), and Goldman is using the move to downgrade to Sell, with price target cut to $44 from $47.
- CMA -0.9% to $42.87.
Dec. 15, 2015, 12:40 PM
- The S&P 500 (SPY +1.5%) is at its session high alongside oil (NYSEARCA:USO), which is up 3.3% on the session and nearly 10% since falling to almost $34 per barrel roughly 24 hours ago.
- Energy (XLE +2.7%) is the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, but financials (XLF +2.5%) aren't far behind, with energy-exposed names like Comerica (CMA +5.2%), ZIons Bancorp (ZION +3.8%), and Prosperity Bancshares (PB +2.7%) among the regional bank movers.
- The surge has also given a big lift to junk bond prices even as the 10-year Treasury yield jumps five basis points to 2.27%. TLT -0.7%, TBT +1.4%.
Dec. 8, 2015, 1:35 PM
- The selloff in financial names is a broad one, but those seen as especially reliant on energy deals and lending are suffering worst as oil and natural gas make new multi-year lows.
- Among the movers: Comerica (CMA -2.9%), Zions (ZION -3.3%), Prosperity (PB -3.3%), Cullen/Frost (CFR -2.6%), MidSouth Bancorp (MSL -1.4%), BOK Financial (BOKF -3.2%), Hancock Holding (HBHC -3.8%), Green Bancorp (GNBC -0.1%), Iberiabank (IBKC -3%), National Bank Holdings (NBHC -0.5%), Texas Capital (TCBI -4.6%), Independent Bank Group (IBTX -2.6%), Interstate BancSystem (FIBK -1.1%), First Financial Bankshares (FFIN -3.5%).
- Screening the whole group against the KRE finds only Interstate BancSystem as outperforming over the past month.
Nov. 10, 2015, 3:40 PM
- Comerica (NYSE:CMA) declares $0.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 1.81%
- Payable Jan. 1; for shareholders of record Dec. 15; ex-div Dec. 11.
Oct. 16, 2015, 8:33 AM
- Q3 net income of $136M or $0.74 per share vs. $154M and $0.82 one year ago.
- Net interest income of $422M vs. $414M, with NIM of 2.54% down 13 basis points.
- Provisions of $26M vs. $5M.
- Noninterest income of $264M vs. $215M
- Noninterest expense of $461M v. $397M
- CET 1 ratio of 10.58% up 18 basis points for the quarter.
- Average total loans up 4% Y/Y. Average total deposits up 7%.
- Net loan charge-offs of $23M vs. $3M a year ago. Net loan charge-offs as a percent of average loans of 0.19% up 16 basis points. NPLs of $369M up from $346M. Allowance for loan losses of $622M up from $492M.
- Q4 outlook: "Continued negative migration of loans related to energy is possible, which may be offset by lower exposure balances."
- Earnings call is underway.
- Previously: Comerica beats by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 16)
- CMA flat premarket
Oct. 16, 2015, 6:43 AM
- Comerica (NYSE:CMA): Q3 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.04.
- Revenue of $686M (+9.1% Y/Y) misses by $3.13M.
Oct. 15, 2015, 5:30 PM
Oct. 6, 2015, 9:48 AM
- Lower just modestly year-to-date, Comerica (NYSE:CMA) is lower by nearly 20% since late June, the stock being hit particularly hard thanks to concern over the bank's exposure to the roughed-up oil and gas sector.
- JPMorgan downgrades to Neutral from Overweight. The price target is cut to $45 from $57.
- The stock's lower by 0.4% today to $42.16.
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