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Mon, Jan. 25, 10:05 AM
- McDonald's franchisee Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO) is up 1% after McDonald's reports strong Q4 results.
- It's a different story for Chipotle (CMG -1.8%), Restaurant Brands (QSR -1.9%), Sonic (SONC -1.1%), and Jack in the Box (JACK -2.2%) which are showing some of the sharpest losses in the restaurant sector in early trading. Concerns over McDonald's taking some market share in the U.S. may be playing in a bit.
- Previously: McDonald's beats by $0.08, beats on revenue (Jan. 25 2016)
- Previously: McDonald's turns positive comp in all segments (Jan. 25 2016)
Sat, Jan. 23, 2:46 PM
- The economic cost of the blizzard hitting the East Coast could run as high as $850M, according to a forecast from Planalytics.
- The tally includes lost productivity and a lower level of consumer spending over the duration of the storm - even after factoring in the impact of consumers stockpiling from chains such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and Kroger (NYSE:KR).
- The storm is broad enough to impact domestic traffic numbers for restaurant chains (MCD, QSR, WEN, CMG, DENN, DNKN, SBUX) and movie theater operators (RGC, CKEC, CNK, AMC).
- The number of cancelled flights tied to the storm is tracking rapidly toward 10K. U.S. airlines (LUV, AAL, JBLU, UAL, DAL) have become more efficient with managing major storms, but will still take a hit to Q1 revenue.
- Looking ahead: Though harsh U.S. winters have lopped off as much as 1% to 2% from retail sales in the past, the 2015-2016 season still sits comfortably in the historical range used by economists when making their projections.
- Previously: Blizzard rally for HD, LOW, BGG, TTC, ACAT, COLM, and BDE (Jan. 22)
- Previously: Storm alert for Shake Shack and Dunkin' Donuts (Jan. 22)
- Retail ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, FXG, PBJ, IYK, IYC, FXD, PEJ, FDIS, RHS, FSTA, SCC, UCC, RCD, PMR, PEZ, UGE, PSL, PSCC, PSCD, SZK, BITE
Thu, Jan. 21, 1:55 PM
- Chipotle (CMG +0.2%) is dialing up the burrito discounts with a major promotion tied to the Super Bowl.
- The company is offering $50 price discounts on the first 1,500 catering or "Burritos by the Box" orders for 20 people or more for the big event on February 7.
- Though it's a nice price break, Eater.com notes that larger Super Bowl parties could have a non-Chipotle believer or two in the crowd.
- Chipotle traffic fell significantly after food illnesses tied to E. coli were reported at several of its stores.
Wed, Jan. 20, 8:20 AM
- The portfolio manager for the Fidelity Contrafund (MUTF:FCNTX) said in his quarterly review that the fund decided to hold steady with its investment in Chipotle (NYSE:CMG). Chipotle's focus on productivity and comparable-restaurant sales growth are cited by Fidelity as reasons to ride out the wave.
- The fund lost 50 bps in performance due to Chipotle in Q4.
- As of November 30, the Fidelity Contrafund held a 6.29% stake in Chipotle.
Tue, Jan. 19, 3:06 PM
- It's a rough day for burrito sellers with El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO) and Del Taco Restaurants (NASDAQ:TACO) both down 7%.
- Chiptole (CMG -1.5%) is still on unsound footing, while even Qdoba-owner Jack in The Box and Tex-Mex influenced Chuy's Holdings are 1% lower.
- There's been a reset with some analysts on the growth track of some Mexican-style restaurants chains after Chipotle's dreamy run high ended.
Fri, Jan. 15, 3:59 PM
- Following multiple E.coli and norovirus outbreaks, all of Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) 1,900+ restaurants will be closed for a few hours on Monday, Feb. 8, so that the company can hold a national staff meeting on food safety.
- CEO Steve Ellis has said he's "hopeful" the Center for Disease Control would soon state Chipotle's outbreaks are over. A company spokesman asserts Chipotle hasn't seen an E.coli case in two months, and has since been serving a million customers a day without incident.
- Chipotle's beaten-down shares have rallied today in spite of 2.2% S&P drop, and are now up 18% since Tuesday's close. A CLSA upgrade helped yesterday, and an ICR conference talk provided a lift on Wednesday.
- Q4 results arrive on Feb. 2.
Thu, Jan. 14, 8:05 AM
- CLSA upgraded Chiptole (NYSE:CMG) to a Buy rating after factoring in the company's noteworthy presentation at the ICR Conference yesterday.
- Chipotle plans a major marketing campaign to win back customers and charted a path to keep margins intact over the long term.
- CMG +0.73% premarket to $431.48 vs. a 52-week trading range of $399.14 to $758.61.
Wed, Jan. 13, 11:15 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) is up 6% after management's first presentation at the ICR Conference goes smoothly.
- The company is planning to stay at full throttle on store expansion and sees both comps and margins recovering.
- New food safety protocols and an expanded leave policy for sick employees are both in the works.
- Several investments firms have weighed in positively after the talk. Morgan Stanley says the long-term thesis is still solid, while William Blair says it expects the CDC investigation to close soon. Citi was also impressed, but warned that earnings visibility will be tough this year.
Wed, Jan. 13, 8:08 AM
- A number of restaurant companies present today at the ICR Conference where analysts will listen closer for reads on December traffic.
- The retail sector saw a late-month surge activity which may or may not have fed the top line of restaurant chains. Wage inflation strategies are also expected to be discussed.
- Due to speak today are Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE:KKD), Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT), Fiesta Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FRGI), Domino's (NYSE:DPZ), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (NASDAQ:PLKI), and Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC).
- The last presentation may be the most riveting when Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) takes center stage Though it's only been a week since Chipotle issued a warning on Q4 and 2016 sales, investors will be looking for some sign that the traffic decline at the burrito chain has bottomed out.
- ICR schedule (.pdf)
Fri, Jan. 8, 6:27 PM
- A lawsuit charges Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) with misleading investors about food safety measures.
- The suit, filed by investor Susie Ong, is a class action complaint that adds to Chipotle's 2016 headaches around the fall's E. coli outbreak, including downgrades, price target cuts, federal subpoenas and tumbling same-store sales.
- Ong's suit says Chipotle made "materially false and misleading statements," had inadequate quality controls to safeguard the health of consumers and employees and didn't disclose that those controls "were not in compliance with applicable consumer and workplace safety regulations."
- Investors have been harmed because of that, the suit alleges. It names co-CEOs Steve Ells and Monty Moran as defendants as well.
- Shares fell 0.7% today, topping off a week where the stock dropped 11.9%. They've fallen 45% off October's 52-week high.
- Previously: Chipotle still searching for a bottom (Jan. 07 2016)
- Previously: Chipotle adds buybacks amid comp sales plunge (Jan. 06 2016)
- Previously: Chipotle lowers Q4 expectations, discloses federal subpoena (Jan. 06 2016)
- Previously: Stephens steps out as Chipotle bear (Jan. 05 2016)
Thu, Jan. 7, 11:03 AM
- Chipotle (CMG -0.6%) traded as low as $411.61 today before bouncing back a bit.
- A wave of price target revisions came in from Wall Street: Deutsche Bank to $400, Cowen and Company to $415, BTIG Research to $530, Wedbush to $450.
- Earlier this week, Stephens came in with a Street low PT of $375 on the restaurant stock.
- The central theme on Chipotle is how far the company will need to adjust its farm-to-table model to win back confidence without losing the freshness edge.
Wed, Jan. 6, 9:17 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) says it approved an extra $300M in share buybacks on top of a previous allowance of $300M which still has a balance of $116M.
- The company purchased about 401K shares in December at an average cost of $527 per share. For Q4, Chipotle pulled the trigger on 609K shares at an average price of $556 per share.
- Comparable-store sales weakened considerably for Chipotle in December following more national attention to cases of E. coli tied to the restaurant chain. The comp estimate for December is now -30%.
- Chipotle issues an early warning on 2016 sales. "Future sales trends may be significantly influenced by further developments," warns the company ominously.
- SEC Form 8-K
- Previously: Chipotle lowers Q4 expectations, discloses federal subpoena (Jan. 06 2016)
- CMG -2.08% premarket to $439.00.
Wed, Jan. 6, 9:03 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) discloses that it expects Q4 comparable-store sales to decline 14.6%.
- Non-recurring expenses of $14M to $16M are anticipated for the quarter due to issues related to food safety.
- Q4 EPS guidance is set at $1.70 to $1.90 for the quarter vs. $2.55 consensus (before some recent analyst revisions).
- The company also disclosed that it received a federal subpoena in California requesting documents related to a notovirus incident.
- SEC Form 8-K
- CMG -3.86% premarket to $431.00.
Tue, Jan. 5, 7:35 AM
- Stephens initiates coverage on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) with a negative view on how long it will take for the restaurant chain to fully revive traffic following the E. coli stigma.
- Food safety costs and additional employee training will add costs in the short term, reasons Stephens.
- The investment firm rates the restaurant stock at Underweight and assigns a price target of $425.
- CMG hasn't opened yet in the premarket session. Shares closed at $448.96 yesterday.
Mon, Jan. 4, 12:00 PM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) is down 6.4% in a very weak start to the year. A downgrade from Oppenheimer is weighing on the stock. The investment firm lowers 2016 and 2017 EPS estimates on Chipotle to below the Street consensus marks.
- Though most restaurant stocks are down 2% to 3% on the day, Chipotle seems to be getting hit a bit harder than just the Oppy swipe on what's been a day of reckoning for some previous momentum favorites like Netflix (-7%) and Tesla Motors (-8%).
Dec. 31, 2015, 2:33 PM
- Chipotle (CMG -1.5%) is poised to close the year at or near a multi-year low as confidence over the company's ability to quickly recover from an E. coli scandal continues to waver.
- Year-end tax selling has impacted Chipotle over the last few sessions, observe traders. In the die-hard Chipotle camp, an E. coli conspiracy theory is gaining steam, notes Business Insider wryly.
- Chipotle is slightly off its low of $478.78.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serves a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads, made using fresh ingredients.
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