Wed, Oct. 21, 8:23 AM
- Execs with Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) warned during yesterday's earnings call that sales results in Q4 are "choppy" for the first few weeks of October.
- Comparable-store sales are trending slightly below the 2.6% comp that Chipotle reported for Q3.
- Overall sales were boosted in Q3 by a targeted menu increase on steak and barbacoa.
- Chipotle continues to keep a tight lid on marketing costs. The restaurant chain forecasts marketing expenses will be 1.5% to 1.6% of sales in 2016.
- Management concedes that it may have taken its eyes off the critical lunchtime throughput rate (rate of customers through lines) this year after running intense contests a year ago. Some restaurant analysts think many Chipotle stores have hit their peak throughput rates for lunch.
- Chipotle earnings call transcript
- Previously: Comp sales growth falls below 3% at Chipotle (Oct. 20 2015)
- Previously: Chipotle Mexican Grill misses by $0.04, revenue in-line (Oct. 20 2015)
- CMG -6.87% premarket to $657.14.
Tue, Oct. 20, 5:40 PM
Tue, Oct. 20, 4:24 PM
Tue, Oct. 20, 4:19 PM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) reports comparable-store sales rose 2.6% in Q3 vs. +2.4% consensus estimate and +4.3% in Q2. The company ran up against a very high comp from a year ago.
- Higher menu prices added more to comp growth than traffic during the quarter.
- Restaurant level operating margin fell 50 bps Y/Y to 28.3%.
- Food cost ratio -100 bps to 33.0% with lower dairy and avocado prices pitching in.
- Store count +53 net Q/Q to 1,931.
- Guidance: Chipotle's comp growth outlook for 2015 is for a low to mid-single digit rate increase. 215 to 225 new store openings are expected for 2015 vs. 190 to 215 prior view. For 2016, 220 to 235 openings are anticipated.
- CMG -4.52% to $674.10 after hours.
Mon, Oct. 19, 5:35 PM
Wed, Oct. 14, 9:29 AM
- Piper Jaffray's detailed survey of teenagers indicates their restaurants of choice may not be so different than their parents.
- Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) was picked as the top restaurant by the 13-year old to 19-year old group, with Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) and Chick-fil-A ranking second and third.
- Perhaps a surprise, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) ranked fourth, while Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) was solid with a 5th place listing.
- Notably missing from the list were Taco Bell (NYSE:YUM), Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN), and Subway.
- Piper Jaffray infographic on survey results (.pdf)
Wed, Oct. 14, 7:08 AM
Mon, Oct. 12, 3:22 PM
- Restaurant sales rose 1.5% in Q3 on a comparable-store basis, a deceleration from the 1.8% growth seen in Q2, according to data from Black Box Intelligence.
- A higher average guest check during the quarter, helped to offset a 1.2% decline in traffic.
- Black Box warns of continued traffic weakness in Q4 due to "stagnant" growth in employment and wages. There's also a tougher weather comparison with last year viewed as an overall favorable winter season for traffic.
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH LUB, QSR, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, SHAK, HABT, NDLS, BOJA, PBPB, PLKI, FRSH, RAVE, LOCO, TACO, PZZA, KONA, BGR, BJRI, CHUY, FRS, CBRL, GTIM, TAST, ARKR, WING, BOJA, ZOES, PLAY, FOGO, ARCO.
Mon, Oct. 12, 1:55 PM
Thu, Oct. 8, 1:02 PM
- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey initiates Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO), and Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) with Buy ratings.
- The investment firm has an $11 price target (+21% upside potential) on WEN, a $17 PT on LOCO (+42% upside), and a $850 PT on CMG (+17% upside).
- The bull calls stand out with SunTrust issuing a majority of Neutral ratings after it jumped into the sector.
Mon, Sep. 28, 10:55 AM
- Carnitas is back on the menu at 90% of Chipotle (CMG -0.5%) stores, according to a statement from the company.
- Chipotle says it's built up its carnitas stocks by working with existing suppliers and through a new partnership with Karro Food.
- Carnitas is one of the more popular items on the Chipotle menu and seen as a traffic-driver for the chain.
Mon, Sep. 14, 11:15 AM
- With market eyes on a Fed rate-hike decision considered to be a bit of a toss-up amid differing opinions, Goldman Sachs is banking on the (slightly) more dovish position that the agency will wait until December. The bank is still laying out how to play the hike when it invariably comes.
- Strength in balance sheets is what you need, it says, noting that those companies outperform (by an average 5%) in the three months after a rate-boosting cycle begins. In Goldman's "High Quality Stock" basket: CMG, DLTR, PEP, KMI, BLK, GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, ORCL, WFC.
- Meanwhile, it suggests avoiding companies with high floating-rate debt as they bear the brunt of a move away from near-zero interest rate policy. "When the tightening cycle finally starts, the immediate impact will be felt by firms with high proportions of variable rate borrowing."
- Included in that "avoid" list: CL, COL, JNJ, AAPL, EBAY, MET, KO, GIS, F, MCD, GM, TWX, CVX, AGN, MON.
- (Yes, cash-rich Apple made both lists, having a strong balance sheet along with floating debt.)
Fri, Sep. 11, 11:21 AM| Fri, Sep. 11, 11:21 AM | 5 Comments
Wed, Sep. 9, 12:14 PM
- The Board of Health in New York City approved a measure to require chain restaurants to denote dishes with more than 2.3K milligrams of salt.
- The new rule will apply to close to 10% of items at chain's with more than 15 outlets nationwide.
- Local operators may need to change restaurant boards again in the future to comply with federal labeling rules.
- Related stocks: PNRA, CMG, MCD, QSR, DNKN, SHAK, WEN.
Fri, Sep. 4, 8:41 AM
- Who is behind Chubby Chipotle?
- That's the question on the mind of management at Chiptole (NYSE:CMG) after a full-page ad in The New York Post took the restaurant chain to task for the amount of calories in its burritos and its claims of selling "sustainable" food.
- The ad leads to a website run by the Center for Consumer Freedom which seems to be an organization fixated on taking on the "food police" meddling in the choices of U.S. consumers.
- Some digging by The Washington Post reveals that big food interests could be partially behind the testy CCF.
Fri, Sep. 4, 7:28 AM
- The restaurant industry posted same-store sales growth of 1.7% in August, according to data from Black Box Intelligence.
- Average traffic fell 1.1% during the month, while the per person average check amount rose 2.7%.
- YTD restaurant same-store sales are up 2.2%.
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH LUB, QSR, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, SHAK, HABT, NDLS, BOJA, PBPB, PLKI, FRSH, RAVE, LOCO, TACO, PZZA, KONA, BGR, BJRI, CHUY, FRS, CBRL, GTIM, TAST, ARKR
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