Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.NYSE
Chiptopia's Incremental Economics Should Jumpstart Sales And Profits
Long Hill Road Capital • 17 Comments
Long Hill Road Capital • 17 Comments
Chipotle: Its Market Is Smaller Than Investors Believe, Valuation Implies 30%+ Downside
Hayden Cole • 61 Comments
Hayden Cole • 61 Comments
Wed, Oct. 19, 1:17 PM
- Barron's has introduced a tracking index of stocks favored by younger consumers.
- Though the combined performance on the group of 50 stocks smashed the returns of the S&P 500 over the last five years, this year it lags slightly so far.
- As expected, the price-earnings ratio of the Barron's Next 50 Index skews higher due to the focus on longer-term millennial growth.
- Some of the companies making the initial list are Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Barnes & Noble Education (NYSE:BNED), Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), GameStop (NYSE:GME), GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO), GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB), Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE), Live Nation (NASDAQ:LIVE), Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), MasterCard (NYSE:MA), Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH), Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Square (NYSE:SQ), and Yelp (NYSE:YELP).
- A millennial-focused ETF launched last spring, the Global X Millennial Thematic ETF (NASDAQ:MILN), has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over its brief history.
Tue, Oct. 18, 1:03 PM
- Chipotle (CMG -0.3%) could be suffering from a "permanent" loss of customers, according to a harsh assessment from Raymond James.
- The investment firm doesn't see comparable sales returning to prior levels and warns of further share deterioration.
- CMG is rated at Underperform by RJ.
- Shares of Chipotle are down 46% over the last year and bottomed out at $384.77 in August.
- Looking for the flip side of the CMG argument? There's plenty of positive takes on Chipotle's future posted by Seeking Alpha contributors.
Mon, Oct. 17, 11:12 AM
- Nomura CMG)%3A+Cutting+SSS+Ests+And+PT+Based+On+Checks+-+Nomura/12136869.html" target="_blank">keeps a Neutral rating on Chipotle (CMG -1.8%) ahead of the company's Q3 earnings report.
- The investment reduces estimates on Chiptole after digesting channel checks. The new forecast for Q3 same-store sales growth goes to -19.5% vs. -17.9% consensus.
- The price target on CMG is dropped to $372 from $405.
- Chipotle is due to spill numbers on October 25.
Fri, Oct. 14, 2:54 PM
- Piper Jaffray is out with the results of its annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey. The top brands listed by the 10K teens included in the survey are posted below.
- Top clothing brands: Nike (NYSE:NKE) 29%, American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) 9%, Forever 21 5%, Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) 4%, Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) 3%.
- Top handbag brands: Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) 34%, Kate Spade (NYSE:KATE) 19%, Coach (NYSE:COH) 10%, Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF) 5%, Longchamp Vera Bradley (NASDAQ:VRA) 3%.
- Top footwear brands: Nike 51%, Vans (NYSE:VFC) 9%, Converse 7%, Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYY) 6%, Steven Madden (NASDAQ:SHOO) 2%.
- Top restaurant chains: Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) 14%, Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) 11%, Chick-fil-A 10%, Taco Bell (NYSE:YUM) 3%, Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) 3%, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) 3%, Olive Garden (NYSE:DRI) 3%.
- Nothing earth-shattering in the tech results, dominating teen mindspace are Snapchat (Private:CHAT), YouTube, Instagram and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).
Tue, Oct. 4, 5:06 AM
- Don't spill your coffee in excitement, but it's National Taco Day today.
- The holiday coincides with the introduction today by Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) of chorizo in all U.S. restaurants. Chipotle's summer loyalty program and several promotions aimed at kids ended in September, with the restaurant operator desperately looking to return to some normal pricing.
- The intense competitive cadence from Chipotle has impacted other Mexican food chains such as Taco Bell (NYSE:YUM), Del Taco (NASDAQ:TACO), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO), Chevy's Fresh Mex (private), and Qdoba (NASDAQ:JACK). That group is also looking to improve their average ticket at restaurants through higher prices.
Mon, Oct. 3, 9:08 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) announces it will roll out chorizo in all U.S. restaurants after a successful test run in five markets.
- The addition of the spicy sausage to the Chipotle menu has already been a talking point for bullish-leaning analysts covering the restaurant stock.
- Chipotle closed at $423.50 on Friday vs. a 52-week range of $384.77 to $757.00.
- Source: Press Release
Tue, Sep. 27, 1:41 PM
- Chipotle (CMG -0.2%) announces it will use a special antimicrobial disinfectant solution produced by PURE Bioscience (NASDAQ:PURE) in all U.S. restaurants.
- The disinfectant is expected to be productive in preventing notovirus outbreaks and bacteria contamination.
- The development is doing wonders for the shares of microcap Pure Bioscience.
- PURE +14.57% to $1.14.
Wed, Sep. 21, 3:40 PM
- Chipotle (CMG -0.2%) launched a new marketing campaign today focused on food safety.
- The company has online and print advertising running aimed at convincing consumers that the restaurant chain's food is safe.
- Same-store sales have remained in a devastating trend for Chipotle since an e. Coli outbreak last year.
- Previously: Chipotle slips below $400 after Goldman warns on search slump (Sept. 21)
- Previously: Chipotle still pushing free drinks for students (Sept. 19)
Wed, Sep. 21, 8:29 AM
- Goldman Sachs cuts targets on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) after factoring in a drop in web/app traffic in August as Chiptopia enthusiasm died down considerably (49.7 search interest index vs. 77.7 in July via ZeroHedge).
- GS sees a FQ4 comp of -21.4%, compared to its prior forecast of -18.4% and the consensus estimate of -17.7%.
- Shares of Chipotle are down 0.36% premarket to $398.98.
Mon, Sep. 19, 9:38 AM
- Chipotle (CMG -0.1%) is hyping its student promotion aimed at increasing store traffic.
- All high school and college students with a valid ID can receive a free fountain soft drink or iced tea with any in-store entree purchase during the month of September.
- The promotion was first announced in late August.
- The company notes that transactions that include the free drink will still count toward the Chiptopia loyalty program.
- Source: Press Release
Wed, Sep. 14, 9:46 AM
- Chipotle (CMG +0.2%) announces that it's looking to hire 5K new employees as part of its National Career Day event on September 28. Last year, the restaurant chain had a target of 4K hires for the career day blitz.
- The company currently employs more than 60K people.
- Chipotle PR: "Unlike most companies in the traditional fast food and fast casual industries, Chipotle offers all employees significant career advancement opportunities, as well as compensation and benefits above industry standard."
Tue, Sep. 13, 10:47 AM
- The sluggish pace of restaurant sales in the U.S. is partially because of weakness in the lunch daypart, according to The NPD Group.
- Data from NPD suggests that consumers are pushing back against high menu prices, especially in the fast-casual sector.
- Another trend that may be factoring in is the increased percentage of employees working out of their house and skipping the lunchtime restaurant rush.
- NPD reports that lunch traffic fell 4% in Q2, compared to a 1% drop for dinner traffic and a 1% increase in breakfast visits.
- Lunchtime blues? - Zoe's Kitchen (NYSE:ZOES), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ:LOCO), Potbelly (NASDAQ:PBPB), Noodles (NASDAQ:NDLS), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Steak 'n Shake (NYSE:BH), Qdoba (NASDAQ:JACK), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Habit Restaurants (NASDAQ:HABT), Cosi (NASDAQ:COSI).
Tue, Sep. 13, 9:55 AM
- Chipotle (CMG -1.5%) is on watch after data-tracking firm M Science warns that the company's Chiptopia event has only had a minor impact on same-store sales.
- There's also some questions being asked by Hedgeye on the controls in place at Chipotle. The issue was raised in an interview with analyst Howard Penney that was posted earlier.
- Not everyone is negative on CMG today. Citigroup upped its price target to $517 from $488 to represent +21% upside on the restaurant stock.
Fri, Sep. 9, 2:46 AM
- Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has agreed to financial settlements with more than 100 customers who fell ill after eating at its restaurants last year, in a string of food-safety problems that battered its stock price and reputation.
- The burrito chain's strategy of resolving claims out of court shows it wanted to avoid drawn-out public battles. Terms of the settlements were confidential.
Thu, Sep. 8, 1:12 PM
- Project Wing (GOOG, GOOGL), following Federal Aviation Administration approval, will start a short-term experimental test to deliver orders on Virginia Tech's campus originating from a Chipotle (CMG -0.5%) food truck. Data will be provided to the agency on the program's conclusion to aid in constructing improved industry regulations.
- The initiative marks the most comprehensive of its kind and is intended to measure delivery capabilities of challenging, time-sensitive food shipments.
- Although a notable evolution for Alphabet's X division, Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) and others looking to take to the sky for delivery purposes will no doubt be on watch as UAVs appear increasingly likely to have a significant role in the future of goods transportation.
Wed, Sep. 7, 8:12 AM
- Stifel Nicolaus doubles down on its bearish take on Chiptole (NYSE:CMG) after Pershing Square takes a sizable stake. Stifel is on record with a Sell rating and rock-bottom price target of $215 on CMG.
- "We cannot fathom Pershing's operational or mathematical investment thesis," reads the Stifel note.
- The investment firm is convinced that the economic laws of diminishing returns seen in the restaurant industry for matured chains work against CMG's valuation justification.
- Other firms have issued cautionary takes on the Pershing Square development, but see some upside if the focus at the chain can be directed at margins.
- Previously: Chipotle leaps 6.5% as Ackman takes 9.9% holding (Sept. 6)
- CMG +4.92% premarket to $434.46.