Top Oil Sands Pick: Canadian Natural Resources
Turtle Street Capital
Turtle Street Capital
Jun. 1, 2015, 2:46 PM
- Canadian oil industry executives say the new plan by Alberta's premier to boost job creation by increasing oil refining and processing in the province instead of elsewhere is an unrealistic "dream" because costs and infrastructure needed for such facilities make it difficult to achieve.
- "There are huge hurdles," a Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) VP said at an RBC Capital conference in New York, such as the fact that U.S. refineries are already set up to handle the heavy crude that Alberta produces: “The best economic solution is to get that crude to these facilities,” said an exec at Imperial Oil (NYSEMKT:IMO), the Canadian company majority owned by Exxon (NYSE:XOM).
- Building a refinery in Alberta would have cost Husky Energy (OTCPK:HUSKF) double what it ended up paying for stakes in existing facilities in Ohio, according to the company's COO.
- The focus on creating jobs should not trump economics, Suncor (NYSE:SU) CFO Alister Cowan told the conference.
May 28, 2015, 12:38 PM
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ -0.3%) is started with an Overweight rating and $43 price target at J.P. Morgan, which says the company has the "best in class" free cash flow story in the Canadian oil sands.
- The firm says it likes CNQ's high-quality asset base, with a growing exposure to the Canadian oil sands and top-tier production growth potential.
- JPM cautions patience, as CNQ's free cash flow could be negative over the next year if Brent oil prices remain below $70/bbl, but the firm expects free cash flow to inflect within a year, rewarding investors.
May 27, 2015, 6:23 PM
- Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) says it is delaying setting out detailed future spending plans due to uncertainty about the energy policies of Alberta’s newly elected government.
- Canada's top independent oil producer had planned to hold an institutional investor open house on June 17 but says it will be deferred until greater clarity on government policies allows the company to finalize spending plans.
- The new premier, Rachel Notley, says she has no plans to force her government to speed up work on new policies despite CNQ's decision.
May 27, 2015, 2:37 PM
- Wildfires in northern Alberta have spread farther into the oil sands area, prompting the shutdown of ~230K bbl/day of production and keeping ~10% of the province's output offline.
- Cenovus Energy (CVE -0.7%) said yesterday it evacuated workers from its Narrows Lake oil sands project and Birch Mountain natural gas plant because of the fires; Narrows Lake is not yet producing, and workers were finishing the camp project there when they were evacuated.
- CVE already had closed its 135K bbl/day Foster Creek operations and evacuated 1,700 workers, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ -0.6%) has cut 18K bbl/day of output at its Kirby South oil sands operation and 80K bbl/day from its Primrose facility, MEG Energy (OTCPK:MEGEF) halted operations at its Christina Lake site, and Statoil (STO -0.3%) says its Leismer site remains in operation but it will evacuate non-essential staff.
- Economists warn that the fires could further cut Canada’s GDP, already hit by the collapse in oil prices; oil sands extraction directly accounts for 2% of GDP but total energy extraction and support activities account for 6% of GDP, Bank of America says.
May 26, 2015, 10:18 AM
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ -2.7%) shut production yesterday from its Kirby South oil sands operation in Alberta, raising the amount of production brought offline because of the nearby forest fire that began earlier in the weekend to 233K bbl/day, or ~10% of the province’s total oil sands output.
- CNQ already had shut 80K bbl/day of production at its Primrose facility, and Cenovus Energy (CVE -2.7%) had closed its 135K bbl/day Foster Creek operations in Alberta.
- MEG Energy (OTCPK:MEGEF) also said it had suspended operations at its Christina Lake oil sands project and moved non-essential staff from the site due to the potential risk of the fires.
May 25, 2015, 12:11 AM
- Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) has shut down operations at the 135K bbl/day Foster Creek oil sands project and Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) closed its 80K bbl/day Primrose project after a forest fire broke out on the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range in Alberta.
- CVE and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) each own 50% of Foster Creek, with CVE's share of the production representing 31% of total company-wide average oil output of 218K bbl/day; Primrose's production represents less than 10% of CNQ's total corporate output.
- More than 7% of Canada's oil sands production has been shut down by the fire, which started Friday and is considered "out of control."
May 15, 2015, 2:45 PM
- Canada says it is committing to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, partly by introducing new regulations on its oil and gas sector.
- Environment Minister Aglukkaq says Canada will cut its emissions to 515 metric megatons by 2030 from 726 metric megatons in 2013; earlier this week, Ontario - Canada’s most populous province - set its own 2030 target of 112 megatons, which would represent a 46% cut from 2005 levels.
- To meet the new target, Canada will develop regulations to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, such as industrial leaks and gas flares, as well as new rules to control emissions from the electricity and chemical sectors, including from nitrogen fertilizers.
- Relevant tickers: SU, ENB, TRP, IMO, CNQ, CVE, TCK, TAC, OTCQB:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF
May 7, 2015, 12:47 PM
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ -0.6%) is lower after Q1 earnings beat expectations amid record production, but unadjusted earnings resulted in the company's first quarterly loss in more than four years.
- CNQ says Q1 output totaled a record 898K boe/day, up 31% Y/Y, with crude oil production rising 23% and natural gas production increasing 51%, but cash flow fell 36% to C$1.37B due to lower commodity prices.
- CNQ says Q1 operating costs to produce oil and natural gas liquids fell 22% Y/Y.
- CNQ also reduces its 2015 capital program by another C$300M, now targeting spending of ~C$5.7B after announcing spending cuts in January and March.
- Says options for its royalty lands and royalty revenue portfolio include a sale or spinoff.
May 7, 2015, 6:12 AM
- Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) declares C$0.23/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 2.38%
- Payable July 1; for shareholders of record June 12; ex-div June 10.
May 7, 2015, 5:32 AM
- Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ): Q1 EPS of C$0.02 beats by C$0.05.
- Revenue of C$3.03B (-31.1% Y/Y) misses by C$840M.
May 6, 2015, 5:30 PM
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May 6, 2015, 2:36 PM
- Canadian energy stocks are broadly lower after the shocking election result in Alberta raised questions about the future of the country's oil industry: SU -3.3%, ENB -2.8%, TRP -2.6%, IMO -2.3%, CNQ -2.3%, CVE -5.8%, OTCQB:HUSKF -1%, TCK -1.6%, TAC -4.1%, OTCQX:COSWF -6%.
- "Energy is such a critical issue to Alberta, I’m really not that concerned," ENB CEO Al Monaco says, but investors and analysts disagree.
- "It’s completely devastating" for energy companies and investors, saysCanoe Financial's Rafi Tahmazian of stated plans by the newly elected government to raise corporate taxes, review the government’s take of energy revenue, scale back advocacy for pipelines and phase out coal power more quickly.
- “If you are invested in energy stocks, you should be concerned,” says AltaCorp’s Jeremy McCrea, noting that drillers already face higher costs to extract oil and gas in Alberta than in many jurisdictions, so an increase in royalties would make the province even less competitive.
May 6, 2015, 7:38 AM
- In a stunning election result, voters in Canada's energy-rich Alberta province swept aside the four-decade hold on power by the ruling Progressive Conservative Party and elected an New Democratic Party majority government that wants to raise corporate taxes and increase oil and gas royalties.
- NDP leader Rachel Notley - who has vowed to raise the corporate tax rate to 12% at a time energy companies are reeling from layoffs and project cancellations amid weaker oil prices - is expected to succeed Jim Prentice as Alberta’s premier.
- Notley has said she would not lobby for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline to link Alberta’s oil deposits to refineries in Texas, and that she is against the Northern Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast.
- She also has promised another review of oil royalties at a time other oil producing areas around the world that are also struggling with low oil prices are expected to make their terms more appealing.
- Relevant tickers: ENB, SU, TRP, IMO, CNQ, CVE, OTCQB:HUSKF, OTCQX:COSWF, XOM, BP, RDS.A, RDS.B
Apr. 22, 2015, 6:53 PM
- Nomura came out bullish today on the energy E&P sector - issuing Buy ratings for MRO, PXD, EOG, CLR, APC, NFX, RRC, CNQ, CXO, ECA and SU - even as the firm does not foresee a V-shaped rebound in crude oil prices.
- Nomura believes core North American shale plays do not represent the economic marginal cost of supply in the world, which runs counter to commonly held views that largely see shale occupying the high end of the cost curve; thus as oil rebounds, so will investment in the shales, which should support prices, the firm says.
- In such an environment, Nomura says selecting stocks will depend on factors such as ”the reinvestment opportunity set, impact of oilfield technology, continued efficiencies, potential new geologic plays, management acumen and balance sheet strength."
- The firm is Neutral on DVN, HES, MUR, OAS, UPL, WLL, XEC, COG, COP and SWN; it rates NBL, APA, DNR, CHK and CVE as Reduce.
Mar. 24, 2015, 11:59 AM
- Canadian energy companies are trading at record valuations, signaling their shares have not yet caught up to the reality of lower crude oil prices, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
- Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) and other stocks in the S&P/TSX Energy Sector Index are priced at 65x expected earnings, an all-time high and more than double the average of U.S. peers.
- "The group, in general, is reflecting oil prices closer to US$60," says an analyst at Cormark Securities, adding that "the longer oil stays at these levels, there is downside risk.”
- SU, Canada’s largest oil producer, is changing hands at 58x projected earnings and Husky Energy (OTCQB:HUSKF) is at 85x, Bloomberg says.
Mar. 6, 2015, 5:57 PM
- Oil drillers expecting prices to rebound have come up with an alternative to storing their crude in tanks: They’re keeping it in the ground, as drillers who have spent millions boring holes through petroleum-rich shale are just waiting for prices to go up before actually turning on the spigot.
- The backlog of unfracked wells is one reason U.S. crude output is poised to climb even as companies have idled more than a third of the rigs that were drilling for oil in October; Continental Resources' (NYSE:CLR) Harold Hamm says ~85% of U.S. wells aren’t being completed right now.
- Examples: Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) says it expects to have as many as 440 uncompleted wells by year's end, EOG started the year with ~200 uncompleted wells and plans to let that inventory build through H1, and Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:CNQ) says it has 161 uncompleted wells.
- Initial production from a new well typically is 750-1,000 bbl/day, meaning the "fracklog" could represent as much as 3M bbl/day of new output, at least at the outset - a major reason an oil price recovery will prove to be an extended process, analysts say.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, UWTI, USL, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, TWTI, OLEM
- Earlier: Oil glut's latest dilemma: where to store it all
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is a senior independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. The company's exploration and production operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada; the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea; and Côte... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Independent Oil & Gas
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