Market Vectors Chinese Renminbi/USD ETNNYSEARCA
Fri, Nov. 18, 1:17 PM
- The strength in the U.S. dollar may just be getting started after post-election forecasts were too conservative, says Credit Suisse.
- That's after the ICE U.S. Dollar Index increased to its highest level in more than 13 years today.
- EUR/USD: Credit Suisse predicts a 1.03 exchange rate in 90 days and 1.00 parity in a year vs. 1.05 prior on both and 1.05872 current.
- USD/JPY: The investment firm targets a 111 rate in three months and 108 in 12 months vs. 100 and 108 prior, respectively.
- GBP/USD: Brexit uncertainty is a factor of course, observes CS. The forecast arrives at 1.20 for 3-months and 12-months vs. 1.16 prior and 1.2338 current.
- USD/CNY: Some depreciation is seen being allowed by the Chinese government. CS lines up an exchange rate of 7.01 for 3-months and 7.33 in a year. vs. 6.8833 current.
- USD/MXN: Traders beware of Nafta repeal risk, warns CS. A peso at 23.0 per USD in 3 months and 25.0 in a year is the cautious forecast. The peso stood at 20.5011 per USD at last check.
- Source: Bloomberg
- ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, UDN, FXB, CYB, ERO, CNY, GBB, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, URR.
Tue, Nov. 15, 2:10 AM
- The greenback continues to gain strength on expectations of higher interest rates under President-elect Donald Trump, pushing the yuan to a near 8-year low and taking its losses so far this year to more than 5%.
- The People's Bank of China set its daily fix at 6.8495 yuan against the dollar, compared with Monday's 6.8291 yuan, marking the weakest fix for the currency since 2008.
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
Fri, Nov. 11, 5:01 AM
- Central banks from India to Indonesia have stepped in to stabilize their currencies on deepening concerns that Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies and weaken their exports.
- Meanwhile, the dollar is on course for its best week in a year, racking up another round of gains against the yuan and peso and steadying just off the previous day's highs against the euro and yen.
- ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, INR, ICN, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
Fri, Oct. 21, 4:41 AM
- China's house-price index dropped to 4.3% in September from 9.2% in August amid attempts by central and local governments to dampen the red-hot sector with purchasing restrictions in a number of cities.
- In the first weeks of October, new-home prices in Beijing dropped 3.7% and 2.5% in Shanghai after rising in both cities in September.
- In 63 of the 70 cities tracked, new-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, grew last month, down from 64 in August.
- Despite the early signs of cooling, analysts are skeptical about the government actions amid mounting concerns about the huge debt in China.
- "The most powerful property control is credit tightening, which we haven't seen," UBS economist Wang Tao said. "The purchase restrictions currently imposed can still be bypassed."
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, DSUM, FXCH, CBON, KCNY
Wed, Oct. 19, 3:22 AM
- China's GDP growth remained at 6.7% on year in Q3, as expected, boosted by yet more government spending, record bank lending and an over-heating property market, all of which are adding to the massive debt in the country.
- Q2 growth was also 6.7%.
- The figure is in the middle of the government's 2016 growth target of 6.5%-7%.
- Industrial production slowed to +6.1% on year in September from 6.3% in August and missed forecasts of +6.4%.
- Retail sales accelerated slightly to +10.7% from +10.6% and topped estimates of +10.6%.
- Fixed-asset investment growth jumped to +8.2% from +6.1% and met expectations.
- "Economic activity seems to be holding up reasonably well, with few signs that a renewed slowdown is just around the corner," says economist Julian Evans-Pritchard. "Nonetheless, the recent recovery is ultimately on borrowed time given that it has been driven in large part by faster credit growth and a property market boom, both of which policy makers are now working to rein in."
- Chinese shares -0.7%, Hong Kong -0.6%.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIQ, CHIX, TAO, QQQC, DSUM, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CBON, CHIE, EWHS, JFC, KCNY, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, HAHA, ASHX, CNHX, XINA, CNYA
Sun, Oct. 2, 6:31 AM
- The yuan joined the IMF's reserve basket on Saturday, becoming the first currency to be added to the list since the emergence of the euro in 1999.
- China will use this opportunity to further deepen economic reforms and open up the sector to promote global growth, the PBOC said in a statement.
- The IMF announced last year that it would add the yuan to the basket, so the actual inclusion is not expected to impact financial markets.
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
Thu, Aug. 11, 2:30 AM
- Today marks the first anniversary of the so-called "one-off devaluation of the yuan".
- On this date last year, China's central bank cut its guiding rate for the national currency by around 2% against the dollar, a move that sent shockwaves through markets.
- The PBOC has since continued to incrementally weaken the yuan, with the currency depreciating by around 7% against the greenback over the past 12 months.
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
Sun, Aug. 7, 10:43 AM
- China's foreign-exchange reserves were little changed in July, edging down by $4.1B to $3.2T, as the central bank burned less of the hoard to defend its currency and outflow pressures eased thanks to a stronger yuan.
- "There was little significant intervention in July," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank. "The PBOC may have intervened days after the Brexit vote, but the intervention wasn't significant enough to move the reserves."
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIX, CHIQ, TAO, QQQC, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, KBA, CHIM, CHIE, EWHS, JFC, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, HAHA, CNHX, ASHX, XINA, CNYA
Tue, Jul. 26, 3:04 AM
- Just two months before the yuan is to be included in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket for the first time, the fund's board has adopted a new methodology for calculating the amounts of its global reserve currencies.
- New weightings of the dollar, euro, yen and pound will be set on Sept. 30 and fixed for five years, pushing the yuan a step closer to being freely usable internationally.
- ETFs: FXE, UUP, EUO, FXY, YCS, UDN, CYB, ERO, CNY, JYN, USDU, DRR, ULE, EUFX, FXCH, YCL, URR
Tue, Jun. 14, 3:25 AM
- China's near-term growth outlook has turned more buoyant "due to recent policy support," according to the IMF's David Lipton, but the medium-term prospects are more uncertain because of "rapidly rising credit, excess capacity and financial sector risks."
- The economy faces growing vulnerabilities and there are fewer buffers to deal with any shocks, he added.
- On the nation's currency, Lipton said it was "broadly in line with fundamentals" and encouraged China to achieve an "effective float" within the next few years.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, HAO, CQQQ, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIQ, CHIX, TAO, QQQC, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CHIE, EWHS, JFC, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, HAHA, ASHX, CNHX, XINA, CYB, CNY, FXCH
Mon, Apr. 25, 4:28 AM
- China's total domestic and foreign debt grew to a record 237% of GDP in Q1, the FT calculates, or 163T yuan ($25T).
- The surge in borrowing comes as the Chinese government yet again turns on the spigots in order to boost stuttering growth.
- What worries economists is not the size of the debt, which is comparable to the U.S. and the eurozone, but the speed with which it has accumulated. The Chinese figure was 148% at the end of 2007.
- "Every major country with a rapid increase in debt has experienced either a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in GDP growth," Goldman Sachs' Ha Jiming wrote this year.
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIX, CHIQ, TAO, QQQC, DSUM, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CHIE, CBON, EWHS, KCNY, JFC, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, XINA
Thu, Apr. 14, 4:16 AM
- The People’s Bank of China weakened the daily yuan reference rate by the most in three months after the dollar strengthened and a surprising easing by Singapore that weighed on Asian currencies.
- The weaker fixing “is a reflection of the overnight dollar recovery,” one economist said. “Still, it’s slightly weaker than expected, making me feel like there is still a weakening bias.”
- The yuan fell 0.12% in Shanghai to 6.4847, a third straight day of declines.
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
- Now read What Capital Exactly Is Flowing To And From China »
Sun, Apr. 3, 9:45 AM
- China may allow its banks to convert 1T yuan ($150B) of bad loans into equity in the initial phase of the plan (Caixin Weekly).
- Phase 1 of the debt-to-equity swap may finish within 3 years.
- Now read Is The Chinese Economic Miracle Over? »
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, YINN, EWH, CAF, FXP, YANG, KWEB, PGJ, GXC, CYB, HAO, CQQQ, CNY, MCHI, PEK, CHN, CHIQ, CHIX, TAO, QQQC, DSUM, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YXI, CHAU, YAO, CN, FCA, GCH, CHAD, FXCH, ECNS, CXSE, CHII, CHIM, KBA, CBON, CHIE, EWHS, JFC, FCHI, KFYP, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, CHNB, XINA
Mon, Mar. 14, 11:40 AM
- China's devaluation last summer spurred massive plays from those believing the yuan would fall even further, but those bets have turned out to be losers as Beijing has proven itself a worthy opponent against the shorts.
- “China wants to have control over the yuan and will do whatever it can to ensure that no one else decides what direction it goes in,” says one money manager. "Is it worth fighting against a huge economy and policy maker that could take you out? No.”
- Among those who bet against the yuan were Kyle Bass, Crispen Odey, and Bill Ackman, prompting Bill Gross to compare the shorting to the speculative attack that helped level the British pound in 1992.
- Sticking with the trade is Adam Rodman from Segra Capital Management. “We haven’t pared down exposure."
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH
- Previously: Goldman brushes off idea of Chinese currency crisis (March 14)
Fri, Mar. 11, 3:50 AM
- China is drafting rules to make it easier for lenders to convert bank loans into equity stakes of debtor companies, a move that would help authorities clean up the nation's highest levels of soured credit in a decade, sources told Bloomberg.
- The swaps will be based on market principles, though details of the new regulations are not yet finalized.
- Meanwhile, the onshore yuan erased its decline for the year after the PBOC raised its daily reference rate by the most in four months (+0.34% to 6.4905).
- ETFs: FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, CHIQ, QQQC, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, CHII, EWHS, KBA, CHIE, CHIM, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, XINA, CXSE, CYB, CNY, FXCH
Mon, Mar. 7, 4:26 AM
- China's foreign currency reserves dropped for the fourth consecutive month in February, falling $28.75B to $3.2T (the lowest level since 2011), but a slower pace of decline suggested that the recent stability of the currency markets has eased pressure on the central bank to intervene aggressively.
- The country's forex reserves have come under close scrutiny in recent months for clues on the size of capital outflows as well as the ability of policymakers to support the yuan.
- ETFs: CYB, CNY, FXCH, FXI, ASHR, EWH, YINN, CAF, KWEB, GXC, PGJ, FXP, HAO, YANG, CQQQ, PEK, CHIX, TAO, MCHI, CHN, CHIQ, QQQC, TDF, XPP, ASHS, CNXT, YAO, YXI, CN, GCH, CHAU, ECNS, CHNA, FCA, CHII, EWHS, KBA, CHIE, CHIM, FCHI, KFYP, JFC, CHAD, AFTY, FHK, ASHX, XINA, CXSE