Sep. 12, 2013, 1:07 PM
- December Corn slides nearly 3% after the USDA revises upward its estimate for ending stocks to 1.855B bushels from last month's 1.837B. Trade forecasts were for 1.739B. Production is lifted to 13.843B bushels from 13.763B last month and trade estimates of 13.641B. The average yield is expected at 155.3 bushels/acre vs. 123.4 last year.
- Beans go green, however, as the USDA cuts it estimate for yields across the Midwest. The agency sees production at 3.149B bushels and ending stocks of 150M after cutting export demand by 20M bushels. "Leaves trade nervous," tweets Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "USDA too conservative on demand."
- Wheat's reverses an early loss to go flat even as the USDA revises higher its forecast of ending stocks to 561M bushels from 551M.
- Deere (DE -1.1%) got knee-jerked for a few cents on the news release, but looks to be in the process of bouncing back.
- CORN -2.7%.
- JJG, GRU, SOYB, WEAT.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:05 AM
- Soybeans lead big gains in the grains after the Pro Farmer tour suggests a harvest lower than the USDA prediction and DTN forecasts more hot, dry weather in the Midwest for the next 7-10 days.
- November beans +3.9%, December corn +3.6%, December wheat +1.5%.
- "The market's increasingly getting a bit nervous about the soybean crop," says an agricultural economist with ANZ.
- ETFs of interest: CORN, SOYB, WEAT. JJG, GRU.
Aug. 12, 2013, 12:26 PM
- The grain pits party after the USDA lowers its corn production estimate to 13.76B bushels - still a whopper of a number, but off from 13.95B in July. Ending stocks are cut to 1.837B bushels.
- Bean production is cut to 3.255B bushels from 3.42B as acres planted are cut 500K and yield is lowered to 1.9 bushels/acre.
- No change is made to the wheat production estimate, but 25M bushels of extra exports cuts ending stocks by the same amount.
- December corn erases a sizable early loss, now up $0.15 to $4.69/bushel. CORN +1.5%.
- SOYB +3.4%, WEAT +0.3%.
- Grain ETFs: JJG +1.8%, GRU +2.5%.
- Other related: JJA, RJA, AGF, DBA, FUD, UAG, DAG, AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, RGRA.
Aug. 12, 2013, 3:29 AM
- This time last year, the U.S. was suffering from a severe drought that hit production and sent corn prices (CORN) to a record high of $8.31 a bushel.
- Now, the harvest is expected to rise to at least 14M bushels from 10.8M in 2012, causing prices to sink to $4.65 a bushel. Soybean is down by over 20% from a year ago.
- While the drop in prices - which is forecast to continue - is hurting farmers, it's providing relief for meat producers and other food companies.
- Relevant livestock ETFs include COW and UBC.
Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PM
Corn (CORN -3.9%) crumbles after the USDA estimates farmers planted 97.379M acres - the most since 1936 and far ahead of estimates for just 95.431M acres. The number of acres to be harvested, however, fell to 89.135M from 89.5M projected 2 weeks ago, and stocks of 2.764B bushels are below expectations of 2.845B. Bean (SOYB -0.5%) acreage is estimated at about an inline 77.28M acres - the most ever. DBA -1%.| Jun. 28, 2013, 1:00 PM | 10 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
Corn (CORN -1.8%) gives up early gains and turns sharply lower after the USDA estimates 2013/14 ending stocks of 151.8M tons, above the trade estimate of 149.6M. The USDA cut its yield projection by 1.5 bushels to 156.5 bushels/acre, but lower feed usage and no reduction in planted acreage (despite spring delays) has stocks higher. Tyson (TSN +0.9%) and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC +1.9%) cheer the news. The data was bearish for beans (SOYB -1.8%) as well. Grains ETF (JJG -1.3%).| Jun. 12, 2013, 12:19 PM
Jun. 3, 2013, 1:13 PM
The price of corn sees little comfort from Morgan Stanley's estimate of planted acreage coming in at 93.5M acres, well below the USDA's 97.3M forecast. Wet weather has slowed fieldwork, says Morgan, also projecting production of 13.3B bushels vs. the USDA at 14.14B. That corn-planting got off to a slow start is hardly new news and the USDA will update planting figures later today. CORN -1.2%.| Jun. 3, 2013, 1:13 PM
May 21, 2013, 10:24 PM
Don't say Goldman didn't warn you (I, II). Corn (CORN) prices fell Tuesday to multi-week lows after the Department of Agriculture reported a 43 percentage point increase from last week to this week in the amount of the corn crop planted, bringing the total to 71% compared to just 28% a week ago.| May 21, 2013, 10:24 PM
May 17, 2013, 11:01 AM
Goldman's Tuesday bear call on agricultural commodities has implications for Deere (DE -2.7%) which gets a downgrade to Sell from Neutral. Analyst Jerry Revich says "recovering commodity inventories point to lower U.S. farm income and capex." As recently bearish Barron's notes (channeling Wells Fargo's Andrew Casey) "as goes the North American corn crop, so goes DE's stock price." For their part, GS says only a "major weather shock" could keep corn crop (CORN +0.1%) prices "near their current levels." Price target: $85 from $98.| May 17, 2013, 11:01 AM
May 15, 2013, 11:38 AM
Agricultural commodity prices (DBA) could fall a big 13% over the next year, says Goldman, predicting bumper crops across the globe. With weak demand and a record South American harvest (CORN, SOYB, WEAT) already in the books, it would require a major weather shock in the U.S. to keep prices near current levels. Earlier: Deere tumbles as poor weather slows U.S. planting progress.| May 15, 2013, 11:38 AM
May 2, 2013, 3:09 PM
Nearly everyone's a winner today as it's not just stocks lit up bright green. Oil (USO +3.3%), gold (GLD +0.5%), silver (SLV +0.7%), and corn (CORN +1.8%), are all flying. Even bonds (TLT), which tumbled on the big dip in jobless claims, have returned back to flat. Notably lower is natural gas (UNG -6.3%), tumbling on an unexpected add to inventories and as spring finally seems to arrive in the States.| May 2, 2013, 3:09 PM | 3 Comments
Apr. 8, 2013, 10:22 AM
Apr. 1, 2013, 3:39 PM
U.S. corn futures (CORN -2%) tumble 7% to a nine-month low in their biggest one-day decline in about four years, following a 5.4% drop on Thursday when the USDA reported higher-than-expected U.S. corn stockpiles. The two-day drop erases all the gains in corn futures since last June, when prices soared amid the worst U.S. drought in years.| Apr. 1, 2013, 3:39 PM
Mar. 28, 2013, 5:27 PM
Corn futures (CORN -7%) tumbled to their biggest losses since May after the USDA's quarterly stock reports show higher than expected stockpiles and forecast farmers would plant the largest crop in 77 years. "This sets the undertone of lower prices over the next several quarters, unless unfavorable weather develops," a senior commodity analyst says.| Mar. 28, 2013, 5:27 PM | 2 Comments
Feb. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM
Agricultural commodities continue an underreported slide, with J.C. Parets noting corn is down for the 10th consecutive session. Earlier this week, the USDA estimated farm income in 2013 will be the highest in 40 years thanks to high prices. A weak harvest has little impact thanks to the use of crop-insurance programs. DBA -5.2%, CORN -4.4% YTD.| Feb. 14, 2013, 10:28 AM | 2 Comments
Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PM
Beans (SOYB -2.6%) tumble as stronger Brazilian production has the USDA upping its forecast for ending stockpiles by a greater-than-expected 1.1% to 60.1M tons. Estimated corn (CORN -0.5%) inventories are raised 5% to a 632M bushels, but it's not enough to send prices lower as the level remains the lowest in the U.S. since 1995.| Feb. 8, 2013, 3:40 PM
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