Chemspec International LimitedNYSE
Apr. 30, 2015, 11:28 AM
- BofA/Merrill, RBC, Sterne Agee, and Northland have downgraded YELP after the company missed Q1 sales estimates (while beating on EPS) and offered soft Q2/full-year revenue guidance, and several other firms have cut their targets. Shares have tumbled to their lowest levels since mid-2013.
- "[W]e implemented a territory change within our [ad] sales organization at the beginning of January in an effort to increase our reach to more local businesses. But the change had a negative impact on sales productivity," said CFO Rob Krolik on Yelp's Q1 CC (transcript), discussing the company's local ad performance (sales +51% Y/Y to $98.6M). He insists sales productivity has rebounded since the territory change was reversed in early March.
- Krolik adds brand ad revenue (-11% Y/Y to $6.6M) was affected by "industry headwinds related to the shift to programmatic advertising and the industry's desire to have advertising products that are disruptive to the consumer experience," and the Yelp has refused to support "disruptive" ad formats. Other revenue rose 254% to $13.3M, with the Eat24 acquisition contributing $5M.
- Also drawing concern: Yelp's average monthly unique visitors rose only 8% Y/Y to 142M, with a 29% increase in mobile uniques (to 79M) partly offset by a 3% drop in PC uniques (to 80M). International uniques were flat at 31M; Yelp notes Google algorithm changes are still taking a toll.
- Some bright spots: Local ad accounts rose 43% Y/Y to 90.2K, and cumulative reviews rose 36% to 77M. 40% of local ad sales came from ads sold on a cost-per-click (NYSE:CPC) basis, up from 32% in Q4.
- During the Q&A, RBC and MKM both pressed Yelp on its full-year sales guidance, which (though below consensus) implies a pickup in revenue growth from expected Q2 levels. Krolik argued improved sales productivity and a shift towards CPC ads will provide a lift. Cowen asked why Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($16.3M) missed guidance of $19M-$21M; Krolik says lower (high-margin) brand ad sales were to blame.
Jul. 17, 2014, 6:18 PM
- Focus on Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Y/Y cost per click (NYSE:CPC) figures rather than "noisy" Q/Q figures, says departing sales chief Nikesh Arora on the CC. The Y/Y numbers show moderating declines (-6% in Q2, -9% in Q1), as Google takes steps to boost mobile ad prices and grow demand for product listing ads (PLAs).
- Arora also states Google has initiatives afoot to improve CPCs in international/emerging markets, where they tend to be well below U.S. levels (Facebook can relate). Demographics/income levels are responsible for part of the gap.
- Other CC remarks: 1) Google is working with 34 cities on Fiber requirements, and has achieved major cost reductions. More Fiber announcements will arrive later in 2014. 2) PLAs are driving 3x as much traffic as a year ago. 3) ~60% of Google's cash ($61.2B at the end of Q2) is offshore. 4) Google still thinks mobile ad CPCs will eventually exceed PC CPCs, thanks to their ability to use location data and drive local/offline commerce.
- CC live blogs: I, II
- GOOG +1.2% AH. Q1 results, details.
Feb. 12, 2014, 12:03 PM
- TripAdvisor (TRIP +8.3%) is making new highs after beating Q4 revenue estimates and providing strong guidance on its CC (transcript). The travel reviews leader said it expects 2014 revenue growth to be in the mid-20s range (consensus is at 21.9%), and for EBITDA to grow at a similar clip.
- TripAdvisor expects click-based (CPC) ad sales to show accelerating growth in 2014, with full-year growth in the low-20s range. Display ad sales (CPM-based) are expected to grow at a high-teens rate, and all other businesses (subscriptions, transactions, etc.) are expected to collectively grow in the low-50s range.
- CPC ad sales made up 68% of Q4 revenue, display ads 15%, and all other businesses 17%. North American sales (51% of revenue) rose 22%, EMEA 30%, and Asia-Pac 40%. Latin America was flat.
- Mobile's share of TripAdvisor traffic doubled to 40% in 2013, and app downloads rose nearly 150% to 82M. Travel listings rose 80% to 550K, and business listing subs 38% to 69K.
- Priceline (PCLN +2.5%) and Expedia (EXPE +1.1%), both major TripAdvisor clients, are also trading higher. Expedia took off last week following a Q4 beat. Priceline, which launched an updated Android app this morning, reports on Feb. 20.
Jan. 29, 2014, 2:02 PM
- Facebook (FB -1.8%) is seeing a bit of profit-taking ahead of this afternoon's Q4 report. Shares are up 10% since the company posted a Q3 beat; they skyrocketed in the prior three months following a blowout Q2 report.
- Street commentary has been positive going into the report. Cowen has forecast total and mobile ad sales will respectively rise 58% and 50% Y/Y, and says its surveys have "consistently pointed to Facebook delivering a high ROI ad product that consistently bests other social peers."
- JPMorgan, a long-time bull, predicts 61% Y/Y total ad growth. The firm notes online ad agency Kenshoo saw Facebook ad spend among clients double Q/Q in Q4 on the back of a 66% increase in clicks, a 21% increase in cost per click (CPC), and a 10% increase in click-through rates (CTRs).
- Meanwhile, Adobe's (ADBE -0.4%) online ad tech unit (Marketing Cloud) has reported Facebook's clicks, CTR and cost per thousand ad impressions (CPM) respectively rose 125%, 365% and 437% Y/Y in Q4. CPCs are believed to have been flat.
- Facebook currently trades at 45x 2014E EPS excluding net cash/investments.
Oct. 10, 2013, 6:40 PM
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM) clients saw their Amazon (AMZN) same-store sales rise 26.5% Y/Y in September. That's better than August's 24% and July's 24.9%, albeit still down from the 30%+ rates recorded earlier this year.
- EBAY same-store sales growth, on the other hand, fell to 17.4% from August's 20.4% and July's 17.7%. Fixed-price sales +19.4% vs. +20.2% in August, auctions +8.4% vs. +7.8%, Motors +14.4% vs. +18.5%.
- Google's (GOOG) numbers improved: search ad-driven same-store sales +1.8% vs. +0.2% in August, sales driven by shopping engines (such as Google Shopping) +10.6% vs. +7.7%.
- However, the search ad-driven sales growth was fueled almost entirely by a 17% Y/Y increase in average order value to $113.72. Ad clicks fell 6% and orders 5%, and ad prices (CPC) slipped 7% to $0.50. ChannelAdvisor speculates consumers shopping for cheaper items are relying less on search in favor of Google Shopping.
- For reference, comScore estimated total U.S. e-commerce sales growth (exc. travel) was 16% in Q2.