Value Investing In Solar - Why I Picked Canadian Solar
Robert Dydo • 49 Comments
Robert Dydo • 49 Comments
Canadian Solar May Suffer From YieldCo Market Malady
EnerTuition • 18 Comments
EnerTuition • 18 Comments
Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case
EnerTuition • 39 Comments
EnerTuition • 39 Comments
A Final Dead Cat Bounce Before The Big Crash In Canadian Solar?
Abdalla Al-ayrot • 28 Comments
Abdalla Al-ayrot • 28 Comments
Aug. 25, 2015, 9:19 AM| Aug. 25, 2015, 9:19 AM | 7 Comments
Aug. 24, 2015, 10:00 AM
- Among the biggest tech decliners as U.S. stocks tumble/see panic selling amid a global plunge in equities triggered by China/macro fears: SolarCity (SCTY -8.4%), Ambarella (AMBA -8.6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.9%), Fitbit (FIT -9.7%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -10.2%), 21Vianet (VNET -15.7%), Yingli (YGE -14.4%), VirnetX (VHC -11.3%), and Digital Ally (DGLY -19.3%).
- Also off sharply: Rapid7 (RPD -7.5%), Shopify (SHOP -9.1%), Alliance Fiber (AFOP -12%), SuperCom (SPCB -10%), Luxoft (LXFT -7.3%), Box (BOX -14.7%), and Castlight (CSLT -13.8%).
- The Nasdaq has pared its opening-bell losses a bit. It's now down 4.6%, after starting off down 7.5%.
- See also: Premarket decliners, Chinese tech decliners, large-cap tech decliners
- Update (10:35AM ET): SolarEdge is now up 1.6%. Various other names have pared their losses some, but remain sharply lower.
- Update 2 (10:42AM ET): Add SolarCity to the ranks of rebounding stocks: Shares are now up 4.7%.
- Update 3 (12:29PM ET): The Nasdaq is now down just 0.3%. Ambarella, Fitbit, Rapid7, and Canadian Solar have also turned positive.
Aug. 24, 2015, 9:19 AM
- Gainers: GAS +29%.
- Losers: VTL -79%. ACI -31%. BZUN -25%. WBAI -23%. JMEI -20%. BTU -17%. MDR -17%. CSIQ -17%. VIPS -16%. FIT -16%. SFUN -15%. LC -15%. PLUG -15%. EXXI -15%. QIHU -14%. MACK -14%. ACHN -14%. KNDI -13%. CYBR -13%. OHGI -13%. Z -13%. TCK -13%. JKS -13%. AVEO -12%. OAS -12%. WLL -12%. MCUR -12%.
Aug. 19, 2015, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
Aug. 19, 2015, 12:45 PM
Aug. 19, 2015, 9:14 AM
Aug. 18, 2015, 5:40 PM
Aug. 18, 2015, 4:38 PM
- Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is guiding for Q3 revenue of $570M-$620M, below a $669.3M consensus. With a Q2 beat helping out, full-year guidance of $2.8B-$3B is in-line with a $2.93B consensus. Canadian notes full-year revenue would be $1B-$1.1B higher if not for the company's previously-announced shift from "a build-to-sell to a build, own and operate model."
- Speaking of which, Canadian says it's still on track to launch a YieldCo. However, in an apparent reference to 8point3 Energy and TerraForm Global's disappointing IPOs, the company adds it recognizes "the market has recently experienced volatility around YieldCo valuations," and has "alternative plans" to monetize its utility-scale solar projects, if necessary.
- In spite of the Q2 beat, module shipments came in at 850MW (809MW recognized as revenue), below guidance of 950MW-1GW. Shipments are expected to rise to 970MW-1.02GW in Q3, and total 4GW-4.3GW in 2015 - 3.3GW-3.5GW for module sales, 235MW-275MW related to Canadian's solar project/EPC sales, and 460MW-490MW for projects that will be retained.
- Regional performance/pipeline: The Americas accounted for 47.6% of Q2 revenue, Europe 5.9%, and Asia/other markets 46.5%. Canadian's pipeline of late-stage utility-scale solar projects fell by 100MW Q/Q to 2.4GW - 1.2GW are in the U.S., 617MW in Japan, and 338MW in China. 163.9MW of electricity-generating plants are now on the balance sheet (100MW in China).
- Financials: Gross margin was 15.2%, down from 17.8% in Q1 and 19% a year ago, but above guidance of 13%-15%. GM is expected to drop to 12%-14% in Q3; U.S. import tariffs are partly blamed. Operating expenses rose 26.8% Y/Y to $64.1M. Canadian ended Q2 with $1.04B in cash, $940.1M in short-term borrowings, and $353.2M in long-term debt.
- Shares have dropped to $22.60 after hours.
- Q2 results, PR
Aug. 18, 2015, 4:05 PM
- Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ): Q2 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.18.
- Revenue of $636.7M (+2.1% Y/Y) beats by $44.2M.
- Shares +0.25%.
Aug. 12, 2015, 12:01 PM
- Solar stocks are among the larger decliners as equities sell off against a backdrop of Chinese macro fears (heightened by the PBOC's decision to devalue the yuan), lower energy/commodity prices, and a general flight to safety. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.8%) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 36% from an April peak of $50.00.
- Chinese and non-Chinese names are getting hit alike. Major decliners include SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.6%), Enphase (ENPH -8.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS -6.8%), Yingli (YGE -4.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN -4.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -4.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.1%) YieldCo.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -8.7%) is tumbling after posting mixed Q2 results (revenue beat, EPS missed). Installations rose 78% Y/Y to 66MW (in-line with guidance of 63MW-67MW), and bookings grew 40% to 73MW. In a sign investors have concerns SunEdison's (SUNE +1.5%) pending acquisition of Vivint won't close (or at least under its current terms), Vivint trades at a 22% discount to SunEdison's buyout price, even after factoring a lower stock payout to account for SunEdison's recent plunge.
- Speaking of which, Deutsche's Vishal Shah has launched a spirited defense of SunEdison today, arguing the David Einhorn favorite has plenty of options to bolster shares and/or improve its capital structure.
- Shah: "First, some of the senior mgmt team members can personally buyback some stock. Second, it appears that more aggressive growth plans are a problem for the stock ... The shares would react positively if mgmt slashed devco guidance to 3GW. Third, mgmt can sell some backlog and generate cash ... Fourth, mgmt can get capital infusion from a large strategic investor that has interest in infrastructure projects ... Fifth, mgmt can restructure the IDR structure at TERP so that the drop downs in 2016 are more accretive. Sixth, mgmt could arrange additional warehouse financing ... Finally, even though it looks like a long shot, SUNE could reach an agreement to walk away from the VSLR transaction."
- SunEdison remains down 40% from where it traded before posting mixed Q2 results and (thanks to an aggressive project construction pace) op. cash flow of -$621M.
- Update (4:00PM ET): Solar stocks reversed course as markets rebounded. TAN has closed up 1%.
Aug. 6, 2015, 12:00 PM
- North American solar plays SolarCity (SCTY -8.6%), SunPower (SPWR -5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.1%) are seeing big losses after SunEdison (down 21%) posted mixed Q2 results - revenue beat, EPS missed - and reiterated its full-year system delivery guidance. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -5.9%), set to be acquired by SunEdison for a mixture of cash, stock, and convertible debt, is also off. So is inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -10.7%), which reports on Aug. 12.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.1%) has more than given back the big Wednesday gains seen following First Solar's earnings.
Aug. 5, 2015, 11:54 AM
- Solar stocks are posting outsized gains after First Solar (up 17.3%) beat Q2 estimates, offered above-consensus 2015 guidance, and reported improving margins/cost efficiencies.
- Also: Solar microinverter maker Enphase (up 11%) has jumped in spite of providing soft Q3 guidance to go with mixed Q2 results. Low pre-earnings expectations are helping out.
- In addition to SunPower, SunEdison, and SolarCity (previously covered), gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7%), Trina (TSL +5.1%), ReneSola (SOL +5.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +6%), TerraForm Power (TERP +3.1%), and First Solar/SunPower solar project YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.8%).
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is up strongly a day after closing just $0.31 away from a 7-month low of $33.62.
Jul. 29, 2015, 3:25 PM
- First Solar (FSLR +4.4%) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +5.8%) are turning in strong days after North American peer and First Solar YieldCo partner SunPower (up 10.5%) provided strong full-year guidance in its Q2 report. The Nasdaq is up 0.5%.
- SunPower also stated it expects a 30% CAGR in MW deployed from 2015-2019, and that its global project pipeline is now above 12GW. First Solar's Q2 report arrives on Aug. 4.
Jul. 9, 2015, 1:28 PM
- Down sharply yesterday, solar stocks (TAN +5.3%) are among today's standouts after Chinese regulators announced a fresh round of aggressive measures aimed at halting a local market crash. Among them: Investors holding 5%+ stakes aren't allowed to sell shares for six months.
- Like their Web/mobile peers, Chinese solar names are surging: Big gainers include Yingli (YGE +5.3%), Daqo (DQ +7.1%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS +10.7%), and ReneSola (SOL +4.8%).
- Major non-Chinese gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.1%), Solar3D (SLTD +11.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +7.1%).
- Some news: 1) The U.S. DOC has decided to maintain anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese module imports, while slightly modifying its rates. Yingli says it will now have a 21.7% combined rate, down from a 2012 level of 29.2% and the lowest among peers. 2) SolarEdge has struck a deal with #2 U.S. residential solar installer SunRun (RUN - about to go public) to be SunRun's "preferred supplier of optimized inverter solutions." SolarEdge also sells to SolarCity and Vivint. 3) Sky Solar has obtained an $85M loan to finance a Uruguay solar project.
- Update (1:50PM ET): Yingli is now down 4.9%, thanks to a report stating the company has halted production after talks with creditors broke down.
Jul. 8, 2015, 2:46 PM
- Solar stocks are seeing big losses once more today. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%, the S&P is down 1.5%, and worries about the economic effects of a Chinese stock market crash are easy to find. Those less concerned make note of China's high savings rate, and the relatively low portion of Chinese household assets invested in equities.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now down 32% from its April peak, and roughly flat on the year.
- Chinese firms Trina (TSL -5.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.9%), Yingli (YGE -4.9%), ReneSola (SOL -6%) China Sunergy (CSUN -5.1%), and Daqo (DQ -4.2%) are adding to yesterday's losses.
- Major non-Chinese decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -9.9%), Vivint (VSLR -4.4%), and Solar3D (SLTD -8.3%). Enphase is off sharply following a JPMorgan downgrade. SolarEdge and Solar3D are now respectively down 23% and 18% on the week.
Jul. 8, 2015, 9:12 AM
Canadian Solar, Inc. designs, develops, and manufactures solar wafers, cells and solar power products. Its products include a range of standard solar modules built to general specifications for use in a range of residential, commercial and industrial solar power generation systems. Canadian... More
Industry: Semiconductor - Specialized
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