Value Investing In Solar - Why I Picked Canadian Solar
Robert Dydo • 49 Comments
Robert Dydo • 49 Comments
Canadian Solar May Suffer From YieldCo Market Malady
EnerTuition • 18 Comments
EnerTuition • 18 Comments
Canadian Solar Shatters The Bear Case
EnerTuition • 39 Comments
EnerTuition • 39 Comments
A Final Dead Cat Bounce Before The Big Crash In Canadian Solar?
Abdalla Al-ayrot • 28 Comments
Abdalla Al-ayrot • 28 Comments
Mar. 31, 2015, 7:58 AM
- Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) has completed its acquisition of Recurrent Energy from Sharp (OTCPK:SHCAY) for $265M.
- With the closing of the transaction, David Brochu has been appointed Recurrent's new CEO to replace Arno Harris. Michael Metzner, Recurrent's CFO, is also stepping down from his role.
- CSIQ +1.2% premarket
- Previously: Canadian Solar to acquire Sharp's Recurrent for $265M (Feb. 03 2015)
Mar. 30, 2015, 2:03 PM
- Infrastructure asset investor DIF has bought Canadian Solar's (CSIQ -3.7%) 10MW GoldLight solar plant (located in Georgina, Ontario) for C$68M ($54M). The project makes use of 46,800 Canadian solar panels.
- Canadian had a 1.4GW pipeline of utility-scale solar projects at the end of February, and is set to add another 1GW through the Recurrent acquisition. With the company planning to launch a solar project YieldCo, it's shifting from a build-to-sell project business model to a build-to-operate model.
Mar. 25, 2015, 3:41 PM
- A day after posting fresh gains while broader equity markets barely moved, solar stocks are posting steep losses (TAN -4%) amid a 2.2% drop for the Nasdaq.
- Hurting the group's cause: Yingli (down 14.7%) posted a Q4 miss this morning in spite of topping its solar module shipment guidance. ASP declines and a weak euro/yen weighed on the company's top line.
- Chinese firms ReneSola (SOL -7.5%), Daqo (DQ -5.7%), Trina (TSL -4.1%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.5%) are among the major decliners. But so are North American firms First Solar (FSLR -3.5%), SunEdison (SUNE -4.2%), Vivint (VSLR -3.8%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -3.2%).
- SunEdison announced today it plans to buy 1K vanadium flow batteries (good for over 100MWh) from Imergy Power Systems to store solar electricity produced by Indian minigrid projects. Along with the move, SunEdison is upping its equity stake in Imergy. The move comes shortly after SunEdison announced it's entering the solar/wind battery storage market itself by acquiring assets from private Solar Grid Storage.
Mar. 17, 2015, 11:02 AM
- Chinese solars, many of which remain sharply below their 52-week highs, are among the standouts on a morning in which the Nasdaq is off 0.2%.
- JinkoSolar (JKS +2.8%), which was down premarket following news of a fire at one of its plants, is among the gainers. As are JA Solar (JASO +3.3%), Daqo (DQ +5.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.1%), ReneSola (SOL +6.9%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +2.1%). Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.1%), which has extensive Chinese manufacturing ops, is also rallying.
- The gains come as WTI crude oil continues trading near $43/barrel. The Q4 results and full-year guidance provided by solar firms in February and March suggest oil (responsible for only a small % of global electricity output) isn't having a big near-term impact on solar investments.
Mar. 10, 2015, 12:01 PM
- Due to alleged breaches of the EU's minimum price agreement with Chinese solar module exporters, the EC has proposed removing Canadian Solar (CSIQ -2.6%), ReneSola (SOL -4.9%), and ET Solar from the deal, thereby requiring them to pay anti-dumping duties that average 47%.
- Canadian is accused of providing benefits to customers that effectively cut their module purchase prices, thereby bringing them below the minimum price agreement. It's also accused of exceeding marginal percentage limits for sales to individual customers, and of using an OEM partner "assemble modules in a third country using cells from another third country," thus letting it circumvent the agreement.
- The EC alleges ReneSola occasionally imports solar cells through related companies not covered by the agreement, and states there are discrepancies between ReneSola's agreement reporting and that of a 3rd-party importer's.
- All three companies will be able to respond to the allegations. Third parties will also be able to weigh in.
- Europe made up just 5.5% of Canadian's Q4 revenue. It accounted for 30.5% of ReneSola's Q4 module shipments.
- Previously: EU probing Canadian's Chinese export compliance
Mar. 10, 2015, 9:35 AM
- Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) states the EC has "informed the Company of potential issues identified in the course of verifying Canadian Solar's compliance" with the EU's solar export rules for Chinese manufacturers.
- Canadian says it will respond to the EC, and notes the commission hasn't yet made a final decision. The company insists it has fully complied with EU rules.
- The EU and Chinese solar module makers settled a bitter trade dispute back in July 2013 - Chinese companies were allowed to collectively export up to 7GW of modules per year, provided they didn't go below a price floor. Though Canadian's HQ is in Ontario, the company still depends heavily on Chinese manufacturing ops.
- Canadian has sold off, but it's far from alone among solar firms on that count. The Nasdaq is down 0.8%.
Mar. 6, 2015, 9:35 AM
- Praising the company's plans to create a YieldCo and (relatedly) change its solar project business model from build-to-sell to build-to-operate, Goldman has upgraded Canadian Solar (CSIQ +1.7%) to Conviction Buy from Neutral in the wake of yesterday's Q4 report.
- Goldman sees the business model change creating more predictable long-term cash flows and earnings, and the YieldCo both unlocking shareholder value and improving access to cheap project funding.
- Shares are up 16% from Wednesday's close.
- Yesterday: Canadian's Q4 results, guidance/YieldCo plans
Mar. 5, 2015, 9:46 AM
- Though its Q4 EPS missed estimated and revenue just slightly beat, Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is guiding for Q1 revenue of $725M-$775M, mostly above a $733.9M consensus. And while official full-year revenue guidance of $2.8B-$3B is below a $3.42B consensus, it would be $1B-$1.1B higher if not for "the planned change in the Company's [solar project] business model from a build-to-sell to a build and operate model."
- Also: The company says it is "now planning to form a YieldCo vehicle," and is "engaged in the process of analyzing the optimal structure for a YieldCo, including the optimal asset profile." Canadian had previously suggested it's up for doing a YieldCo, without providing formal plans.
- Canadian recognized revenue on 897MW of module shipments in Q4, up from 770MW in Q3 and 621MW a year ago, and above guidance of 810MW-860MW. Total module shipments were at 1.125GW. Q1 shipment guidance is at 1GW-1.035GW, and full-year shipment guidance at 4GW-4.3GW (up from 2014's 3.105GW).
- Q4 gross margin was 19.3% vs. 22.9% in Q3 and 19.5% a year ago - Canadian blames the Q/Q drop on U.S. tariffs, a strong dollar, and lower Canadian project margins. Peers have also reported GM declines. 61.8% of revenue was from the Americas, 5.5% from Europe, and 32.7% from Asia/elsewhere.
- Canadian's pipeline of utility-scale projects stood at 1.4GW at the end of February, even with the end of October. The Recurrent acquisition (set to close in Q1) is expected to add 1GW.
- Operating expenses rose 23.1% Y/Y to $68.9M. Canadian ended Q4 with $1.02B in cash, and over $1.1B in debt.
- Q4 results, PR
Mar. 5, 2015, 6:25 AM
- Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ): Q4 EPS of $1.28 misses by $0.06.
- Revenue of $956.15M (+84.1% Y/Y) beats by $2.21M.
- Shares -1.92% PM.
Mar. 4, 2015, 5:30 PM
Feb. 24, 2015, 10:18 AM
- Beaten down over the last several months as oil and natural gas prices tumbled, solar stocks are rallying today (TAN +3.9%) after First Solar and SunPower announced they're in talks to form a solar project YieldCo, with plans to eventually do an IPO for it.
- The announcement comes less than a year after SunEdison (SUNE +1.5%) took its TerraForm Power (TERP +1.8%) solar project YieldCo public. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.1%), which has said it's looking to do a YieldCo at some point, is among today's biggest gainers (not counting First Solar/SunPower).
- Other standouts: SCTY +3.6%. JKS +6.2%. SOL +5.2%. TSL +4%. JASO +3.1%. YGE +4.3%. CSUN +4.5%. ENPH +2.4%.
Feb. 12, 2015, 4:02 PM
- SunEdison (SUNE +4.2%), Yingli (YGE +6.5%), Daqo (DQ +7.7%), Trina (TSL +4.3%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +6.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS +4.7%) took part in today's market rally in a big way as WTI crude rose 4.9% to $51.25/barrel. The Nasdaq closed up 1.2%.
- Chinese solar names also rallied strongly on Monday. The industry as a whole got some favorable PR on Tuesday when Apple announced it's backing an $850M California First Solar project.
Feb. 9, 2015, 1:46 PM
- While U.S. solar names are generally posting moderate gains or trading near breakeven, many of their Chinese peers are up strongly. Yingli (YGE +4.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +3.6%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), Trina (TSL +3%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +2.8%) are notable gainers. As is Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.8%), which leans heavily on its Chinese ops.
- Solar stocks (Chinese or otherwise) gained last week (I, II) amid a sharp rally in oil prices. WTI crude is currently at $53.18/barrel, and Brent crude at $58.48/barrel.
Feb. 4, 2015, 1:38 PM
- Canadian Solar's (NASDAQ:CSIQ) Q4 report will arrive before the open on Thursday, March 5. CC at 8AM ET.
- Consensus is for revenue of $953.9M (+83.6% Y/Y) and EPS of $1.34.
- With oil prices down over 6%, shares are giving back a portion of the 26% gain they posted yesterday in the wake of the Recurrent deal. Goldman has argued the acquisition could accelerate CSIQ's plans to offer a solar project YieldCo.
Feb. 3, 2015, 12:47 PM
Feb. 3, 2015, 10:59 AM
- Solar stocks are adding to yesterday's gains in a big way (TAN +3.6%) as oil prices (and oil/gas stocks) continue their recent rally: WTI crude is up $1.51 today to $51.08/barrel. The Nasdaq is close to breakeven.
- Also possibly helping solar firms: Canadian Solar's (CSIQ +21.2%) $265M deal to buy North American solar project developer Recurrent Energy from Sharp. The deal, which CSIQ estimates spells a $2.3B+ revenue opportunity, acts as a fresh vote of confidence for the downstream U.S. solar market in the wake of oil and natural gas' big declines.
- Notable gainers (besides CSIQ): FSLR +4%. SPWR +5.1%. JKS +8%. JASO +6.5%. SOL +7.1%. VSLR +6.3%. ASTI +7.7%. CSUN +7.7%. YGE +4.7%. HSOL +8.8%. DQ +3.4%. ENPH +5.8%. TSL +5.5%.
Canadian Solar, Inc. designs, develops, and manufactures solar wafers, cells and solar power products. Its products include a range of standard solar modules built to general specifications for use in a range of residential, commercial and industrial solar power generation systems. Canadian... More
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