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Dec. 21, 2015, 11:11 AM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.1%) is now up 11% since Congress agreed six days ago to a budget compromise (officially passed on Friday) that involved extending the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). Today's gains come with the Nasdaq up 0.6%.
- U.S. solar stocks naturally continue headlining the list of gainers. The list includes SunPower (SPWR +3.4%), First Solar (FSLR +3.3%), Sunrun (RUN +6.9%), Enphase (ENPH +8%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.1%), RGS Energy (RGSE +19.6%), and Solar3D (SLTD +4.5%).
- Other winners include JinkoSolar (JKS +4.7%), ReneSola (SOL +8%), Yingli (YGE +3.5%), China Sunergy (CSUN +4.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +3.2%), and SolarEdge (SEDG +3.2%), the last of which depends heavily on the U.S. residential market.
- Citing (what else?) the tax credit extensions, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Byrd has respectively hiked his SolarCity (SCTY -0.3%), First Solar, SunPower, and Sunrun targets by $18, $2, $2, and $5 to $104, $70, $43, and $28. Bernstein and KeyBanc respectively upgraded SolarCity and Sunrun last Thursday.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Dec. 14, 2015, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are posting big gains (TAN +4.8%) on a quiet day for equities after representatives of 195 countries (including the U.S. and major developing nations such as China and India) reached a deal in Paris to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Coal stocks are going in the opposite direction.
- Also: 1) Oil prices are bouncing after trading near multi-year lows earlier today. WTI crude is up 2.2% to $36.40/barrel. 2) Trina Solar (up 11.4%) has received a preliminary going-private offer at a 21.5% premium to Friday's close.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY +8.4%), Sunrun (RUN +13.4%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +25%) are among the standouts. Other U.S. gainers include First Solar (FSLR +4.6%), SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and Vivint (VSLR +2.8%). First Solar tumbled last week in response to its 2016 guidance; SunPower was hit by a $400M convertible offering.
- Among non-U.S. names, gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.4%), Yingli (YGE +2.9%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +3.9%). SolarEdge (SEDG +4.6%), based in Israel but with strong U.S. exposure, is also doing well.
- Update: Also possibly helping the group: Congressional Democrats are reportedly open to a deal to lift an oil-export ban in exchange for extending solar and wind tax credits.
Oct. 27, 2015, 2:38 PM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -4.7%) as U.S. natural gas falls below $2/MMBtu for the first time since April 2012, WTI crude drops 1.8% to $43.19/barrel, and coal miners Consol Energy and Peabody Energy post disappointing earnings. Many energy stocks are also selling off.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -10.4%) is among the biggest solar decliners. As are microinverter maker Enphase (ENPH -12.3%) and inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -8.3%). SunEdison is within $0.50 of a 52-week low of $6.56, and Enphase within $0.20 of a 52-week low of $3.42.
- Other decliners include SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -6.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.7%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -5.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday jumped thanks to a Q3 guidance hike.
- Also on the casualty list are First Solar (FSLR -2.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.9%), Yingli (YGE -6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.9%). SunPower's Q3 report arrives tomorrow, and First Solar's on Thursday.
Oct. 14, 2015, 12:46 PM
Sep. 18, 2015, 12:45 PM
Aug. 25, 2015, 12:34 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 3.4% - a Chinese rate cut is helping - and solar stocks are among the day's standouts. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +7.4%) is now up 14% from a Monday morning low of $25.51, albeit still down 13% from where it traded going into last week.
- Today's gains come after Pres. Obama announced several new incentives meant to boost solar investment. Among them: $1B in additional loan guarantee authority for distributed energy projects, the unlocking of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for solar installations involving single-family homes, and the creation of a HUD/DOE program to give homeowners "a simple way to measure and improve the energy efficiency of their homes, by increasing homeowners' borrowing power."
- The announcement follows the White House's early-August unveiling of its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Solar still only accounts for less than 1% of U.S. electricity output; renewable sources collectively account for 13%, with hydro responsible for half of the total and wind about a third.
- It also follows the launch of Google's Project Sunroof, which (with the help of satellite imagery) provides would-be home solar installers with advise on installation size and financing options, among other things.
- Major gainers include First Solar (FSLR +8.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +27.1%), Trina (TSL +17.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +13.2%), SunPower (SPWR +6.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +6.9%), and Daqo (DQ +5.9%).
- Cowen has launched coverage on Canadian Solar with an Outperform rating and $28.50 target. Meanwhile, First Solar thin-film module rival TSMC announced today it's shuttering its solar manufacturing ops, while citing a lack of scale/competitiveness.
Aug. 12, 2015, 12:01 PM
- Solar stocks are among the larger decliners as equities sell off against a backdrop of Chinese macro fears (heightened by the PBOC's decision to devalue the yuan), lower energy/commodity prices, and a general flight to safety. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.8%) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 36% from an April peak of $50.00.
- Chinese and non-Chinese names are getting hit alike. Major decliners include SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.6%), Enphase (ENPH -8.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS -6.8%), Yingli (YGE -4.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN -4.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -4.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.1%) YieldCo.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -8.7%) is tumbling after posting mixed Q2 results (revenue beat, EPS missed). Installations rose 78% Y/Y to 66MW (in-line with guidance of 63MW-67MW), and bookings grew 40% to 73MW. In a sign investors have concerns SunEdison's (SUNE +1.5%) pending acquisition of Vivint won't close (or at least under its current terms), Vivint trades at a 22% discount to SunEdison's buyout price, even after factoring a lower stock payout to account for SunEdison's recent plunge.
- Speaking of which, Deutsche's Vishal Shah has launched a spirited defense of SunEdison today, arguing the David Einhorn favorite has plenty of options to bolster shares and/or improve its capital structure.
- Shah: "First, some of the senior mgmt team members can personally buyback some stock. Second, it appears that more aggressive growth plans are a problem for the stock ... The shares would react positively if mgmt slashed devco guidance to 3GW. Third, mgmt can sell some backlog and generate cash ... Fourth, mgmt can get capital infusion from a large strategic investor that has interest in infrastructure projects ... Fifth, mgmt can restructure the IDR structure at TERP so that the drop downs in 2016 are more accretive. Sixth, mgmt could arrange additional warehouse financing ... Finally, even though it looks like a long shot, SUNE could reach an agreement to walk away from the VSLR transaction."
- SunEdison remains down 40% from where it traded before posting mixed Q2 results and (thanks to an aggressive project construction pace) op. cash flow of -$621M.
- Update (4:00PM ET): Solar stocks reversed course as markets rebounded. TAN has closed up 1%.
Aug. 5, 2015, 11:54 AM
- Solar stocks are posting outsized gains after First Solar (up 17.3%) beat Q2 estimates, offered above-consensus 2015 guidance, and reported improving margins/cost efficiencies.
- Also: Solar microinverter maker Enphase (up 11%) has jumped in spite of providing soft Q3 guidance to go with mixed Q2 results. Low pre-earnings expectations are helping out.
- In addition to SunPower, SunEdison, and SolarCity (previously covered), gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7%), Trina (TSL +5.1%), ReneSola (SOL +5.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +6%), TerraForm Power (TERP +3.1%), and First Solar/SunPower solar project YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.8%).
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is up strongly a day after closing just $0.31 away from a 7-month low of $33.62.
Jul. 9, 2015, 1:28 PM
- Down sharply yesterday, solar stocks (TAN +5.3%) are among today's standouts after Chinese regulators announced a fresh round of aggressive measures aimed at halting a local market crash. Among them: Investors holding 5%+ stakes aren't allowed to sell shares for six months.
- Like their Web/mobile peers, Chinese solar names are surging: Big gainers include Yingli (YGE +5.3%), Daqo (DQ +7.1%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS +10.7%), and ReneSola (SOL +4.8%).
- Major non-Chinese gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.1%), Solar3D (SLTD +11.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +7.1%).
- Some news: 1) The U.S. DOC has decided to maintain anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese module imports, while slightly modifying its rates. Yingli says it will now have a 21.7% combined rate, down from a 2012 level of 29.2% and the lowest among peers. 2) SolarEdge has struck a deal with #2 U.S. residential solar installer SunRun (RUN - about to go public) to be SunRun's "preferred supplier of optimized inverter solutions." SolarEdge also sells to SolarCity and Vivint. 3) Sky Solar has obtained an $85M loan to finance a Uruguay solar project.
- Update (1:50PM ET): Yingli is now down 4.9%, thanks to a report stating the company has halted production after talks with creditors broke down.
Jul. 8, 2015, 2:46 PM
- Solar stocks are seeing big losses once more today. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%, the S&P is down 1.5%, and worries about the economic effects of a Chinese stock market crash are easy to find. Those less concerned make note of China's high savings rate, and the relatively low portion of Chinese household assets invested in equities.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now down 32% from its April peak, and roughly flat on the year.
- Chinese firms Trina (TSL -5.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.9%), Yingli (YGE -4.9%), ReneSola (SOL -6%) China Sunergy (CSUN -5.1%), and Daqo (DQ -4.2%) are adding to yesterday's losses.
- Major non-Chinese decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -9.9%), Vivint (VSLR -4.4%), and Solar3D (SLTD -8.3%). Enphase is off sharply following a JPMorgan downgrade. SolarEdge and Solar3D are now respectively down 23% and 18% on the week.
Jul. 7, 2015, 1:32 PM
- While most major North American solar names are down moderately or trading higher, Chinese firms are seeing heavy losses as a domestic rout in equities continues. Many Chinese Web and mobile stocks are seeing similar drops; margin calls and general panic selling appear to be contributing.
- Major decliners include Trina (TSL -9.1%), Yingli (YGE -10.2%), Daqo (DQ -14.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -13.8%), JA Solar (JASO -7.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -7%), and ReneSola (SOL -6.6%).
- Solar ETFs have felt the impact. TAN -2.7%. KWT -4%.
- Yesterday: Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff
Jul. 2, 2015, 9:11 AM
Jun. 29, 2015, 11:39 AM
- Solar stocks are among the top decliners on a morning the Nasdaq is down 1.4%, thanks to a global selloff in equities triggered by Greek news. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.1%) is now down 21% from an April peak of $50.00; it's still up 16% YTD, after having tumbled in 2H14.
- Major decliners include U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY -4.9%), First Solar (FSLR -4.3%), SunPower (SPWR -4.2%), SunEdison (SUNE -5.1%), Vivint (VSLR -7%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -8.2%), Chinese firms JinkoSolar (JKS -7.4%), Yingli (YGE -6.4%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.3%), ReneSola (SOL -5.5%), and Trina (TSL -5.4%), and Israeli inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -5%).
- Some news: 1) SunEdison and its TerraForm Power YieldCo have closed their $350M acquisition of Atlantic Power's 521MW wind plant portfolio. 2) SolarCity, vita its homebuilder partner program, has launched new energy storage and fixed-rate solar electricity pricing options in California (easily its largest market). The electricity, provided via 20-year deals, is said to feature a cost "equivalent to the lowest standard residential electricity rates of California's largest utilities." 3) SolarEdge is partnering with system provider Andalay on a solution that allows SolarEdge's optimizers to be quickly integrated with Andalay's solar modules.
- Last Thursday: Home solar installer/electricity provider Sunrun files for IPO
- Update: Also possibly hurting the group: A Supreme Court ruling blocking EPA regulations meant to limit emissions from coal power plants. The court ruled regulations need to take costs into account.
Jun. 12, 2015, 12:45 PM
Jun. 5, 2015, 1:26 PM
- Solar stocks are doing well (TAN +1.1%) on a quiet morning for equities after JA Solar disclosed a going-private offer from its CEO, and beaten-down Yingli provided mixed Q1 results (revenue beat, EPS missed) and better-than-feared guidance.
- Aside from JA/Yingli, gainers include First Solar (FSLR +3.4%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +10.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN +5.4%), Trina (TSL +3%), Sky Solar (SKYS +2.9%), and Daqo (DQ +4.2%).
- Chinese solar names might also be benefiting from an overnight rally in Shanghai (see Chinese Internet stocks). First Solar, meanwhile, has seen a (questionable) rumor about a Wal-Mart buyout offer surface.
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