Ctrip Has Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Wed, Jun. 15, 6:07 PM
Thu, Mar. 17, 11:30 AM
- Ctrip (CTRP -2.7%) is lower after beating Q4 estimates and guiding for 75%-80% Y/Y Q1 revenue growth, after accounting for the consolidation of peer Qunar's (QUNR +4.4%) results following the end of Q4 - Ctrip owns 45% of Qunar's voting interests following an October deal with Baidu. Consensus, which doesn't account for the Qunar consolidation, is for 45.9% growth.
- Qunar, which saw a major executive shakeup in January, is higher after beating Q4 estimates on the back of 148% revenue growth. On its earnings call (transcript), Qunar said it's declining to give formal Q1 guidance due to ongoing extension talks with hotel owners regarding the company's merchant hotel program, as well as its ongoing efforts to work with airlines to "clean up the agent market and eliminate the irregular behaviors by certain ticketing agencies on our platform."
- Ctrip's Q4: Accommodation (hotel) revenue rose 41% Y/Y to RMB1.2B ($183M). Transportation ticketing revenue rose 61% to RMB1.2B ($192M) thanks to a 143% increase in ticket volume. Packaged tour revenue rose 50% to RMB350M ($54M). Corporate travel revenue rose 26% to RMB136M ($21M).
Gross margin was flat Q/Q and up 400 bps Y/Y to 73%. Operating expenses rose 17% Y/Y (less than revenue growth of 50%) to RMB2.02B ($311M). Ctrip ended 2015 with $4.6B in cash and $4.8B in debt.
- Qunar's Q4: Accommodation revenue rose 423.6% Y/Y to $82.6M. Flight revenue rose 84.7% to $98.2M. Mobile accounted for 75.3% of total revenue.
Gross margin fell to 60.8% from 62.4% in Q3 and 73.5% a year ago. R&D spend rose 532.7% Y/Y to $236.5M, product sourcing spend 207% to $52.4M, sales/marketing 213% to $134.7M, and G&A (excluding one-time stock compensation expenses) 121.5% to $20.6M. Qunar ended 2015 with $1.1B in cash and $510M in debt.
- Ctrip: Q4 results, earnings release
- Qunar: Q4 results, earnings release
Wed, Mar. 16, 11:01 PM
Tue, Mar. 15, 5:35 PM
Nov. 18, 2015, 5:40 PM
- In addition to beating Q3 estimates, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is guiding for 45%-50% Y/Y RMB-based revenue growth, above a 40.2% consensus. Shares have jumped to $108.50 after hours. Peer Qunar (NASDAQ:QUNR), which Ctrip now has a large stake in, has risen to $39.25 ahead of its Nov. 24 Q3 report.
- Q3 EPS benefited from $377M in "other income" stemming largely from the de-consolidation of Chinese Airbnb clone Tujia.com from Ctrip's results, thanks to the loss of control of Tujia following a new funding round.
- Financials: EPS also benefited from moderating spending growth: R&D, sales/marketing, and G&A spend respectively rose 36%, 40%, and 8% Y/Y to $131M, $132M, and $41M, after growing 66%, 42%, and 34% in Q2. The Qunar deal has been expected to yield further spending moderation. Gross margin rose to 735 from Q2's 71% and Q3 2014's 72%.
- Top-line performance: Accommodation revenue rose 45% Y/Y to $215M, transportation ticketing 51% to $190M, packaged tours 66% to $93M, and corporate travel 19% to $20M. Hotel reservation volume rose 50%, and ticketing volume 150%.
- Ctrip's Q3 results, PR
Nov. 18, 2015, 5:03 PM
- Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q3 EPS of $2.20 may not be comparable to consensus of $0.09
- Revenue of $501M (+49% Y/Y) beats by $10.36M.
- Shares +4% AH.
Nov. 17, 2015, 5:35 PM
Aug. 4, 2015, 1:59 PM
- Initially down yesterday following a Q2 beat (moreso on EPS than sales), strong Q3 guidance, and news Tencent is offering to take eLong private, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) has surged above $78 today. Morgan Stanley has upgraded the Chinese online travel leader to Overweight, and Deutsche has hiked its target.
- Likely going over well: Ctrip suggested on its earnings call (transcript) it won't match archrival Qunar's (QUNR -0.4%) aggressive spending and promotional activity, at least on the high end. "I think on the low-end actually is getting more competitive with Qunar ... And they are adopting burning money strategy, where they offer the low-cost prices and with almost no ROI and negative ROI ... we can also do that, but we want to do it a bit more smarter way. So we will compete aggressively on this market, will maintain our market share on the low-end market as well. On the high-end because the customer is less [price] sensitive, they value service and brand so we seem we are to able to maintain a high growth, at the same time still keep a very reasonable profitability."
- Ctrip also once more talked up its mobile growth: Cumulative app downloads have reached 1B, up 200M Q/Q and 5x Y/Y. Mobile transaction value rose 120% Y/Y.
- Q2 results, guidance/details
Aug. 3, 2015, 7:03 PM
- Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is guiding for 45%-50% Y/Y RMB-based revenue growth. Consensus in dollars is for 43% growth.
- The modest size of Ctrip's Q2 sales beat could be disappointing investors, after a much bigger beat was delivered in May. Hotel (accommodation) revenue rose 47% Y/Y (volume +55%) to $178M, transportation (ticket) revenue 45% to $170M (volume +106%), packaged tour revenue 61% to $53M, and corporate travel revenue 34% to $19M.
- R&D spend rose 66% Y/Y to $128M, sales/marketing 42% to $109M, and G&A 34% to $42M. Gross margin was 71% vs. 70% in Q1 and 72% a year ago.
- Meanwhile, in tandem with its Q2 results, smaller Chinese online travel firm eLong (NASDAQ:LONG) has announced the receipt of an $18/share offer from messaging/gaming giant Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) to buy all of the eLong shares not currently owned by Tencent, certain members of management, and "major shareholders" controlling at least 70% of all voting rights.
- Tencent owns 15% of eLong. In May, Ctrip spent $400M to take a 37.6% stake in eLong.
- CTRP -1.7% AH to $70.25. LONG +10.1% to $15.65.
- Ctrip: Q2 results, PR. eLong: Q2 results, PR.
Aug. 3, 2015, 6:07 PM
- Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q2 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.14.
- Revenue of $407.6M (+46.8% Y/Y) beats by $0.81M.
Aug. 2, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Jun. 2, 2015, 10:11 AM
- Ctrip (CTRP -8%) is off sharply following news archrival Qunar (QUNR +2.1%) rejected a buyout offer, and (with the help of fresh capital) plans to significantly up its sales/marketing spend.
- While forecasting strong Q2 sales, Qunar also expects its op. margin to fall to -90% to -100% from Q1's -43.4%, largely on account of "stepped up discretionary expenditures to acquire new mobile users through offline channels." As it is, Qunar's sales/marketing spend rose 150.7% Y/Y in Q1 to $52.9M (equal to 49% of revenue).
- Stifel has downgraded Ctrip to Hold in response. "We believe this is a competitive action that Ctrip will respond to." Last year, Ctrip and Qunar saw their margins hurt by aggressive mobile promotions.
May 13, 2015, 6:49 PM
- With a healthy Q1 beat in tow, Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) is now guiding for 45%-50% 2015 revenue growth, at the high end of a prior 40%-50% guidance range. Consensus is at 42.2%.
- Segment performance: Accommodation (hotel) revenue rose 45% Y/Y in Q1 to $154M, an acceleration from Q4's 31% growth. Transportation ticket revenue (dominated by air tickets) rose 46% to $153M (improved from Q4's 34%). Packaged tour revenue rose 53% to $64M, and corporate travel revenue 31% to $15M.
- Financials: Gross margin (under pressure in recent quarters) was 70%, down from Q1 2014's 72% but up from Q4's 69%. Spending remains aggressive: R&D spend rose 83% Y/Y to $130M, sales/marketing 68% to $117M, and G&A 36% to $42M. Op. margin (non-GAAP) was -1%, down from 12% a year ago but up from -14% in Q4.
- Hotel reservation and ticketing volume respectively rose 60% and 104%. Mobile accounted for 70% of online transactions, and cumulative mobile app downloads topped 800M.
- Ctrip has jumped to $71.75 AH, making new 52-week highs along the way.
- Q1 results, PR
May 13, 2015, 6:11 PM
- Ctrip.com (NASDAQ:CTRP): Q1 EPS of -$0.15 beats by $0.12.
- Revenue of $373.41M (+46.8% Y/Y) beats by $10.81M.
- Shares +6% AH.
May 12, 2015, 5:35 PM
Ctrip.com International Ltd. engages in the provision of travel-related services. It provides hotel accommodations, airline tickets, packaged tours, corporate travel management services, property management systems, and advertising services. The company was founded by Jian Zhang Liang, Min Fan,... More
Industry: Consumer Services
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